Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Srain]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

758 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

WESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

WESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHEASTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

NORTHEASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CST

* AT 754 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE

HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE

LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BROOKSHIRE TO WALLIS TO 11

MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAST BERNARD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM

BROOKSHIRE TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF BROOKSHIRE TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF

WHARTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT

LIMITED TO TOWN WEST...SIMONTON...ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...PLEAK...

PECAN GROVE...NEEDVILLE...MISSION BEND AND KATY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.

WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A

TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A

STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM

[Srain]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

811 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CST

* AT 806 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED NEAR ORCHARD... MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

TOWN WEST...RICHMOND...PECAN GROVE AND FULSHEAR.

[David Reimer]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

811 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CST

* AT 806 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED NEAR ORCHARD... MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

TOWN WEST...RICHMOND...PECAN GROVE AND FULSHEAR.

[IsentropicLift]

Real nice couplet approaching Houston

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=HGX&product=N0S&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[A-L-E-K]

Beast mode cell heading right into Houston.

[IsentropicLift]

TORNADO WARNING

TXC157-201-091545-

/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0005.120109T1458Z-120109T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

858 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 853 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED NEAR MISSION BEND... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR HIGHWAY 99 AND MASON

ROAD AT 850 AM.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE

MEDICAL CENTER...RELIANT PARK...MINUTE MAID PARK...MEMORIAL...HOBBY

AIRPORT...HERMAN PARK...THE GALLERIA...ADDICKS...WEST UNIVERSITY

PLACE...TOWN WEST...SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...SPRING VALLEY...

SOUTHSIDE PLACE...SOUTH HOUSTON...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PECAN

GROVE...MEADOWS...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...HOUSTON...HILSHIRE

VILLAGE...HEDWIG VILLAGE...FIRST COLONY...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE AND

BELLAIRE

[David Reimer]

City of Houston is about to get flooded out by a HP supercell.

[eyewall]

Latest frame still shows more mid level rotation but the overall couplet has weakened.

[David Reimer]

Latest frame still shows more mid level rotation but the overall couplet has weakened.

Besides the threat of a brief tornado, I think the highest impacted from this storm will be the heavy rain. Combined with Houston's poor runoff, I bet this is going to cause some issues. The storm looks less impressive then it did about thirty minutes ago.

[IsentropicLift]

That cell looks to be a long distance tracker. It's fairly isolated and seems to be holding together nicely despite some weakening in the rotation.

[Srain]

Reports nearing 6 inch rainfall and counting in Montgomery County just N of Houston Metro and IAH

[Srain]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

920 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXZ210>212-226-227-235-091545-

AUSTIN-COLORADO-FORT BEND-JACKSON-WALLER-WHARTON-

920 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 916 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

EAGLE LAKE TO 5 MILES NORTH OF EL CAMPO TO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EL

CAMPO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH

THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...NADA...LOUISE...

HUNGERFORD...GARWOOD...EGYPT...WHARTON...SEALY...SAN FELIPE...

PATTISON...ORCHARD...KENDLETON...EL CAMPO...EAGLE LAKE AND BEASLEY.

[David Reimer]

Reports nearing 6 inch rainfall and counting in Montgomery County just N of Houston Metro and IAH

Any FF reports yet?

[Srain]

FLOOD ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

928 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXC157-201-091730-

/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0001.120109T1528Z-120109T1730Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

FORT BEND TX-HARRIS TX-

928 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

NORTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CST

* AT 927 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING 8 MILES EAST OF BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL

AIRPORT.

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE STREET FLOODING

ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS

ON SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...AND BAYOUS. ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF

WATER WILL OCCUR ON HIGHWAYS...STREETS...AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS

OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO

AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY

DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL

ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED

ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[Srain]

Any FF reports yet?

Yes. Mason Creek in Katy reported 1.38 inches in 10 minutes for a rate of 8+ per hour.

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0933 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091533Z - 091730Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL

BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS

AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE MARGINAL...WW

ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS MORNING.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF

HOUSTON TX NEWD TO NEAR ALEXANDRIA LA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD LATE

THIS MORNING INTO A MOIST AIRMASS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID

TO UPPER 60S F. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED

ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE LATEST

WSR-88 VWPS FROM SE TX AND SW LA SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN

THE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN STORM RELATIVELY HELICITIES OF 300

TO 400 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND A COUPLE

TORNADOES MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM HOUSTON TX ENEWD

TO LAKE CHARLES LA WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE. MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS STEEP

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED

LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE

LINE. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING

LINE-SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 01/09/2012

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[Srain]

FLOOD ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

935 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXC291-339-373-407-091730-

/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0002.120109T1535Z-120109T1730Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

LIBERTY TX-MONTGOMERY TX-POLK TX-SAN JACINTO TX-

935 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CST

* AT 933 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING FROM CONROE AND PORTER NORTHEAST TO EAST

OF LIVINGSTON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE AREA

CAUSING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE

ADVISORY AREA ON TOP OF THE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT HAS

ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA.

[Srain]

FLOOD ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

940 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXC039-157-321-481-091745-

/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0003.120109T1540Z-120109T1745Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

FORT BEND TX-WHARTON TX-BRAZORIA TX-MATAGORDA TX-

940 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

WESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

NORTHERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

EASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CST

* AT 939 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST

OF EAST BERNARD TO PIERCE TO DANEVANG.

STREET FLOODING LIKELY IN THE ADVISORY AREA ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND

POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

[Srain]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

TXC157-201-481-091900-

/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0001.120109T1552Z-120109T1900Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

952 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

EASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CST

* AT 951 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT SLOW

MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE LOCATED IN

THE WARNED AREA. SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN

RECEIVED AND TRAVEL IS BEING IMPACTED.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO

OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...

ALDINE...BELLAIRE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...FIRST COLONY...FRESNO...

GALENA PARK...HOUSTON...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...JACINTO CITY...

MEADOWS...MISSION BEND...MISSOURI CITY...PASADENA...PECAN GROVE...

PINEY POINT VILLAGE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SOUTH HOUSTON...SPRING

VALLEY...STAFFORD...SUGAR LAND...TOWN WEST...WEST UNIVERSITY

PLACE...WHARTON...BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...EAST BERNARD...

HEDWIG VILLAGE...HERMAN PARK...HOBBY AIRPORT AND MINUTE MAID PARK.

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/09/12 1554Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES 13: 1515Z VOGT

BLENDED TPW THROUGH: 1347Z

.

LOCATION...W MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...S ARKANSAS...TEXAS...

.

ATTN WFOS...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...HVY RAIN CONTINUES

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW UL LOW

SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS SW TX AS THE UL TROF AXIS GETS EVEN MORE

ELONGATED EAST-WEST... THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UL IMPULSE/JET

MAX DIVING SEWD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN HELPING TO FLATTEN OUT THE UL

TROF. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN TX, DRYER MID-LEVEL AIR IS HELPING TO

CUT OFF SOME PRECIP ACROSS BASTROP/LEE COUNTIES AND PTS TO THEIR NE AS

WELL AS DIRECTLY SOUTH. WITH THE DRYER AIR/UL JET AND SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW

PUSHING E, THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH A BIT EWD INTO

HARRIS/LIBERTY/POLK COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE NRN HALF OF LA/WRN MS. THE

BEST WV/IR ENHANCEMENT IS STILL LOCATED IN SE TX, CLOSEST TO THE SFC

LOW LOCATION.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1600-2000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...AS THE UL TROF GETS FLATTENED OUT A BIT AND THE UL LOW

PIVOTS SLIGHTLY EWD, EXPECT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE LOCATED IN

SE TX/LA/POSSIBLY INTO WRN MS OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. TRAINING OF MOD/HVY

RAINS IS ALSO LIKELY IN THIS REGION ALIGNING MOSTLY ESE-TO-WNW ALONG THE

FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST LL MOISTURE IS ALSO

SHIFTING A BIT EWD WITH A PWAT MAX OF 1.4" IN SE TX/SW LA. THEREFORE,

RAIN RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE

DISCUSSION AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

[Srain]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

958 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

EASTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CST

* AT 953 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WHARTON...AND

MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT

LIMITED TO PIERCE...BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK...NEEDVILLE AND

BOLING-IAGO.

[Srain]

And in the Cold Sector...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

954 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-

080>082-258-100000-

GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-

NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-

DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-

VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-

REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-

GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-

PECOS-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...

CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL...

SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON...

BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...VAN HORN...PECOS...MENTONE...

RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY...

MONAHANS...CRANE...MCCAMEY...RANKIN...BIG LAKE...ALPINE...

FORT DAVIS...FORT STOCKTON...MARFA...BIG BEND NP...MARATHON...

SANDERSON...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS

954 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012 /854 AM MST MON JAN 9 2012/

...HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TODAY...

A POTENT WINTER STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST

NEW MEXICO TODAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR

MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. AREAS LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIER

SNOWFALL TOTALS INCLUDE LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE

INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR... INCLUDING THE CITIES OF FORT

STOCKTON...WINK...KERMIT... ODESSA...MIDLAND...ANDREWS...STANTON

AND BIG SPRING. SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WILL

GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 8

INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ROADWAYS WILL

BECOME SNOW PACKED...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION...REDUCED VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY

IN AREAS WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS.

MULTIPLE VEHICLE ACCIDENTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED THIS MORNING

ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL

OCCUR AND DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREA

ROADWAYS IMPACTED INCLUDE... INTERSTATE 10...INTERSTATE 20...U.S.

HIGHWAY 385...STATE HIGHWAYS 176 AND 115. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF

SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. FOR THE LATEST

ON ROAD CONDITIONS...PLEASE CONTACT THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO

DEPARTMENTS OF TRANSPORTATION USING THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS...

[Srain]

Update from Jeff:

Excessive rainfall rates pounding the US 59 corridor. Flash Flood Warning is in effect until 100pm for Harris, Fort Bend, and Wharton counties.

Hourly rainfall rates from HCFCD gages showing over 3.50 inches with 15-min rainfall rates of 1.76 inches over western Harris County. Line of excessive rainfall currently extends from Wharton to downtown Houston. Large HP supercell which moved through western Harris County with wind damage has weakened. Appears the main axis of heavy rainfall will be shifting to the coastal counties over the next 1-2 hours.

Significant street flooding is in progress over portions of Harris and Fort Bend counties with numerous street impassable. Once given time, storm water will drain off when the rainfall slows.

Tornado threat remains for cells that develop and move into the line from the south or from spin ups along the line…main threat appears to be from Jackson County to southern Liberty County and southward.

[Srain]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1007 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SE

TX AND SW LA...

...UPPER TX AND SW LA COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...

A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE TX BIG BEND THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS ENEWD

OVER CENTRAL TX BY TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL LOW...A

SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A PRE-EXISTING FRONT

ACROSS SE TX BY THIS EVENING...AND THE LOW WILL DEVELOP NNEWD INTO E

TX OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN INFLUX OF MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER

DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO SW LA

IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT

DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE RICH MOISTURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN MLCAPE

VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST THROUGH THIS

AFTERNOON.

THE VWP FROM HOUSTON AND MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT

SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST...WITHIN THE

LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD

THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT IS NEAR ITS PEAK IN TERMS OF

INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER

FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD/NEWD

AND AWAY FROM THE MOST UNSTABLE PART OF THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS

AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THUS...THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR

TWO...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WILL LIKELY PEAK

BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN

/NEAR AND S OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA/...AND THEN DIMINISH SOME

LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR

DAMAGING GUST WILL SPREAD INTO SW LA...WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS

WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE NW GULF. THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY

WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL BE IN QUESTION AS A RESULT OF

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BETWEEN NOW AND TONIGHT FROM SE TX INTO W/SW

LA.

[Srain]

20k customers without power reported by Centerpoint Energy for the Houston Area

[Srain]

HGX issues Flash Flood Warning for Liberty, Montgomery, Polk and San Jacinto Counties until 1:30PM

[Cary]

I don't know if anybody posted this yet, a few Houston TV stations have live webstreaming coverage:

KPRC: http://www.click2houston.com/-/1736084/5632360/-/tbkb1y/-/index.html

KHOU: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/khou-11-news

KTRK: http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=8495867

KRIV: http://www.myfoxhouston.com/subindex/live_video/

[Ed Lizard]

Funnel cloud and tor touchdown were same cell near the same time and close together...

White out rain with maybe an eight mile visibility and almost continuous lightning, one of the things that makes life worth living.

A tornado touched down in Fort Bend County along FM 1093 and FM 723 shortly after 9:30 a.m. The Sheriff's Office said power lines and trees were down in the area.

"We've heard of roof damage in a neighborhood," said a spokesman with the Fort Bend County Sheriff's Office. "There's been quite a bit of flooding. There's been some hail but we haven't heard anything about injuries."

The Richmond Fire Department helped residents evacuate around Third Street as water crept into houses.

"We've had reports of water in homes," said Alan Spears with the Fort Bend County Office of Emergency Management. "We had some boat evacuations going on.

A funnel cloud was spotted on Highway 99 at Grand Parkway shortly after 9 a.m., but there are no reports of it touching down.

http://www.click2houston.com/news/Strong-storms-spin-tornado-flood-streets/-/1735978/7664210/-/vs9k1x/-/index.html

[bubba hotep]

I know everyone is jazzed about the storms today but the GFS looks like it might be trying to lock in on a significant winter event for next weekend across a large part of Texas. The 6z and 12z runs look interesting and now let's see if we can get some consistency over the next day or so.

[Ed Lizard]

Edit- Steve's name didn't show up as the original poster...

By the way' date=' another radar-indicated tornado heading toward Alvin. It's currently just ESE of Needville. League City is also in its path down the road.

Oh, and approaching 6" at my house in Westbury now. (just south of Meyerland)[/quote']

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1111 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL NOON CST

* AT 1107 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED NEAR BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

ROSHARON...JULIFF...CHOCOLATE BAYOU...IOWA COLONY AND BONNEY.