Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Srain]

Midland/Odessa issues Winter Storm Warning for snow amounts in the 4-6+ range. San Angelo issues Winter Storm Watch for their NW CWA condisering Watch/Warning for entire area if Euro/CMC track appears likely.

[Srain]

Here is the HPC QPF Forecast Discussions for the next 3 days...pertinent information is bolded...

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

456 AM EST SUN JAN 08 2012

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION

VALID JAN 08/1200 UTC THRU JAN 11/1200 UTC

REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

UPDATE...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL

ISSUANCE.

DAY 1...

NM...SWRN/CNTRL TO S TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT DAY 1 WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE HT FALLS

DROPPING SEWD FROM THE GTBASIN INTO THE SWRN U.S. EARLY THIS

MORNING. CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THESE HT FALLS INTO A CLOSED

LOW EXPECTED SUN AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM ERN AZ INTO FAR SWRN

TX. STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS

SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NELY UPSLOPE FLOW WL SUPPORT

ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL ACRS LARGE PORTIONS OF NM. PCPN MAY

CHANGE TO SNOW LATE DAY 1 OVR SWRN TX AS UVVS STRENGTHEN HERE SUN

NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SEE THE LATEST QPFHSD FOR FURTHER

WINTER WEATHER DETAILS. IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSING OFF MID TO UPR

LEVEL CNTR OVR SWRN TX...THE LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OFF THE WRN GULF

OF MEXICO WL BE STRENGTHENING SUNDAY. THIS STRENGTHENING ONSHORE

FLOW AND INCREASING PW VALUES TO 1 STD ABOVE THE MEAN WL SUPPORT A

BROAD REGION OF OVERRUNNING PCPN ACRS LARGE SECTIONS OF CNTRL TO S

TX...EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE NAM AND 4KM NAM CONUS

NEST WERE FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE QPF AXIS THAN THE

GFS...ECMWF AND SREF MEAN. DAY 1 QPF FAVORED THE FARTHER SWD

MAJORITY MODEL SOLN...WITH .25-.50"+ AREAL AVG AMTS DEPICTED.

LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

PRIOR TO THE BREAKOUT OF PCPN OVR THE SRN PLAINS...SHRTWV ENERGY

MOVG ALONG THE SRN TIER OF THE U.S. FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO

THE SOUTHEAST WL CONT TO ENHANCE UVVS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE

FRONTAL BNDRY EXPECTED TO REMAIN STNRY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY

INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE AVG PW VALUES ALONG THIS BNDRY WL

SUPPORT CONTINUED SCT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT WITH

MDT PCPN AMTS OF .25-50"+ POSSIBLE.

PAC NW...

NERN PAC HT FALLS WL BEGIN TO ERODE THE AMPLIFIED UPR RIDGE OVR

THE NWRN U.S. WITH THE ASSOC FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING TOWARD THE PAC

NW COAST BY LATE DAY 1. THE STRONG UVVS THAT HAVE BEEN

CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S. CAN BORDER RECENTLY ACRS

VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WRN B.C. WL SINK SWD INTO COASTAL WA LATE DAY

1...WITH .50"+ PCPN AMTS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF DAY 1 ACRS THE

OLYMPIC PENINSULA.

UPR LAKES...

WEAK SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG EWD ACRS CNTRL ONTARIO WL SUPPORT WEAK

ISENTROPIC LIFT PASSING ACRS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY DAY 1 AND TOWARD

THE ONTARIO/QB SUN EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOWFALL AMTS

FOR THE U.P. OF MI INTO THE FAR NRN L.P. OF MI.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS...

A SPLIT FLOW MID TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE NW IN TWO

WAVES ON MON AND TUES... AS ASSOCIATED THERMAL/BAROCLINIC ZONE

SWEEPS THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE SINKING SOUTH

INTO THE GRT BASIN AND DOWN THE WEST COAST. THE INITIAL SURGE OF

UPPER DYNAMICS MORE RELATED TO THE NRN STREAM WILL ADVECT OR

ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON MON. THIS SHOULD FOCUS

THE MAIN PAC MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WRN CANADA BUT ENOUGH LIFT

AND ONSHORE FLOW FOR LIGHT TO MDT QPF AMOUNTS INTO COASTAL WA AND

THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES. THEN ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...THE HIGH

AMPLITUDE...POS TILTED NRN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG THROUGH THE

NRN/CEN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT

INTO THE NWRN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE VERY MINIMAL...MEANING

MUCH OF THE QPF WILL BE DRIVEN OROGRAPHICALLY ACROSS THE NRN

ROCKIES INTO PLAINS. THE ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE

TROUGH AXIS (UPR DVRGNCE AND ACCOMPANYING LOW-MID LVL QVECTOR

CONVERGENCE AND 2D FGEN) WILL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT A TENTH TO

QUARTER INCH LIQ EQUIV PCPN OVER MUCH OF THE NRN/CEN

ROCKIES...WHICH WILL FALL AS SNOW. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST

QPFHSD FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.

...SRN PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...

A COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE

IN PLAY EARLY TO MID WEEK...AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES

TO SHOW A FAIR DEGREE OF SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND

SPEED (TIMING) OF THE SRN STREAM CUTOFF LOW. HPC AGAIN FAVORED A

NON NAM/GFS CONSENSUS WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC...WHICH DO NOT TAKE

THE LOW (AND ASSCD MSTR FIELD) AS FAR TO THE N.

MON/MON NIGHT...STRENGTHENING UPPER JET (~130KT AT 300 MB)

ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE THE UPPER LEVEL

DVRGNCE AND ASSCD S TO N LLVL AGEOS RESPONSE ACROSS THE WRN GULF

COAST (SE TX/SW LA). STRENGTHENING SRLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE LLVL

MSTR TRANSPORT FROM THE GOMEX...WHILE SW MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL

MAINTAIN A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION AS THE WCB PROVIDES DEEP MSTR

AVAILABILITY (NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES) THROUGH 300/250 MB

DURING THIS TIME. PWATS CLIMB TO ~1.5" AS A RESULT. GIVEN THE

FVRBL DYNAMICAL FORCING AND PCPN EFFICIENCY PROFILE...WILL AGAIN

ADVERTISE A REGION OF 2+" OF RAINFALL NEAR THE SE TX/SW LA COAST

MON/MON NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH

CONVECTIVE BANDS (MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH A

DEEP/THIN DISTRIBUTION OF CAPE). CONVECTIVE PTNTL WILL ALSO HELP

TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FARTHER S COMPARED TO THE CURRENT

NAM/GFS TRENDS. FARTHER E...PCPN AXIS WILL STRETCH TO THE MID

ATLC...AIDED BY THE ELONGATED WCB AND DEEPENING WAA/MOIST

ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME AREAS ALONG AND OFF THE

MID ATLC GET FURTHER ENHANCEMENT (LOW-MID LVL FGEN) VIA THE RIGHT

ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE AXIS OF

HIGHEST QPF ACROSS PTNS OF THE LOWER TN VLY TO THE LOWE MID ATLC

REGION WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH MON-MON

NIGHT.

TUE/TUE NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP A BIT LATE IN THIS PERIOD

AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE CONFLUENT PROFILE. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER

JET FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE TROUGH BASE ALSO LOSES A

BIT OF STEAM. NEVERTHELESS...BROAD-SCALE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND

DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE GOMEX WIDE OPEN WILL

GENERATE ADDITIONAL 1-2+ INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS A LARGE PTN

OF THE LOWER TN VLY...AGAIN AIDED BY THE CONVECTIVE PTNL...WHICH

AGAIN WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE HEAVIER RAIN FARTHER S COMPARED TO

SOME OF THE MODELS (NAM/GFS IN PARTICULAR).

[Ed Lizard]

I'm hoping for slightly elevated supercells IMBY tomorrow, myself. The SWODY 2 offers some hope. The new NAM isn't as rainy as the other models have been locally, but I swear I liked the old ETA better for shorter range forecasting. Unless the GFS and globals radically change, I'm rather hopefully for serious drought denting rains, and snow in West Texas is icing on the cake, as it were.

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS is running and suggests heavy snow near Midland/Odessa with even a chance of thundersnow and heavy rains/elevated storms developing as the Coastal Low forms near Corpus and treks NE along the Coast...

[Srain]

And changes out of Midland/Odessa this afternoon increasing snowfall amounts...significantly, for that matter...

.DISCUSSION...

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MAF CWA

STARTING LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST

AND IS CENTERED NEAR SE AZ AND SW NM. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE

SOUTH AND EAST AND IMPACT THE CWA AFTER 00Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE

IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AGAIN...DECIDED

TO GO WITH A NAM/GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE

NAM.

THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START AS RAIN. THE TRANSITION TIME

FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO

AND WEST TEXAS AND AND FOR FAR NORTHERN LEA COUNTY IN SE NM WILL BE

BY 06Z. CAA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AND SLOWLY TRANSITION

THE RAIN TO SNOW. THE TRANSITION TIME FOR RAIN TO SNOW IN THE

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS AND THE PERMIAN

BASIN WILL BE FROM 11 TO 12Z...AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AND SOUTHWARD

WILL BE BY 16Z. THE NAM IS FASTER WITH THE CAA MOVING INTO THE

REGION THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND BELIEVE THE NAM HAS A BETTER

HANDLE ON THE CAA AND LEANED MORE TOWARD PRECIP TYPE WITH THE NAM.

MODELS ARE INDICATING GREATER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS

MODELS RUNS...SO OVERALL RAIN AND SNOWFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE

BEEN INCREASED. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...CONVECTIVE

SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE

FORECAST. AREAS OF CONVECTIVE BANDING COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED AMOUNTS

UP TO 10 INCHES. OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE THIS SYSTEM WILL

RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 10. KEPT CURRENT HAZARDS THE

SAME...CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO LOW WITH SRN COUNTIES WITHIN THE WSW

AS THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW COULD BE LATER THAN THOUGHT...BUT

DUE TO A HIGH END EVENT HAVE LEFT WSW AS IS.

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT 5H LOW WILL GO JUST S OF KMAF MONDAY NIGHT

AROUND 03Z. AS SUCH WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL STILL PERSIST EVEN THRU

THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP 3 INCHES WILL

BE POSSIBLE INTO THE NIGHT ACRS THE PB ESPECIALLY E OF A GENERAL

LINE FROM SEMINOLE TO MIDLAND TO ST. LAWRENCE. WINTER STORM

WARNING WILL EXTEND INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN THE E. FARTHER S WHERE

THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SNOW WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND

MIDNIGHT. WITH SO MUCH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND TUE IT WILL BE A

COLD DAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS...NAM12 SFC TEMPS ARE

MORE REALISTIC BUT PROBABLY STILL TO WARM IN THE W.

A very lengthy and informative discussion from HGX this afternoon. Heavy rainfall and flood potential has been increased and then later in the week, some interesting comments...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

317 PM CST SUN JAN 8 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS SE TEXAS...

.DISCUSSION...

STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF SE TX WILL SLOWLY

NUDGE NORTH THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN ADVANCING

COLD FRONT OVER RED RIVER AND N TX. SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT

THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD

INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE S ROCKIES

PUSHES INTO TEXAS TOMORROW. SFC LOW TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE

BIG BEND OF TX AND THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED

AND MOVE INTO S TX BY MON MORNING.

UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES A FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR

TOMORROW. WHILE GROUNDS HAVE GOTTEN SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THEM

ACROSS THE AREA...STILL NOT ENOUGH TO NEED A WATCH. HOWEVER...DO

THINK THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE

POSSIBLE. ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT TRAIN COULD PRESENT A SMALL

THREAT OF FLOODING SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY

TOMORROW. WITH ALL OF THE MODELS BASICALLY AGREEING THAT IT IS

GOING TO RAIN TOMORROW...FINALLY BUMPED POPS UP TO 100 AREA WIDE

AND MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL.

MODELS HAVE UPPER LOW REACHING BIG BEND AREA BY 00Z TUE WITH

STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS S AND C TX. STRONG LARGE SCALE

ASCENT IS EXPECTED OVER SE TX FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL

SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL. BOTH THE NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP

WATER REACHING 1.4-1.6 INCHES WHICH MAKE HEAVY RAINFALL A

POSSIBILITY. THINK RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES

ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE

FORECAST AND HWO TO 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISO 4. AREAS THAT REACH

3-4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING. THE

OTHER ISSUE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY FROM 09Z TO 18Z MON.

BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST SHOW

INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WHICH WILL BE JUST MARGINAL

ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR

WILL BE QUITE STRONG SO POSSIBLE TO GET SOME UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH BUT THE NAM SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN

THE WINDS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER WHICH MAY LIMIT LOW LEVEL

ROTATION. STILL 0-3KM SRH VALUES RANGE FROM 100-200 M2/S2 ALONG

THE COAST AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY ROTATING STORMS THAT

ORGANIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. AGAIN THE THREAT

SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE

INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR CAN BE MAXIMIZED. THE THREAT

MAINLY HINGES ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WHICH LOOKS TO BE

LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE WITH A DRY SLOT

PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS SE TX. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE COLD

FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH NW WINDS BEHIND IT ON TUE.

THERE MAY BE SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE WITH

THE UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. SFC LOW SHOULD BE WELL

EAST INTO N LA. FORECAST WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING THROUGH THE

OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE FOR THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH AND ANY

WRAP AROUND PRECIP. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON

TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT.

LONG WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST BY 12Z THU.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING

INTO THE AREA. ECMWF/GFS NOW HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST

BY 12Z THU WITH SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA BY FRI MORNING. HAVE

LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THU AND

THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA FRI. MAY HAVE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO PUSH

BY THE AREA THU/FRI SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST

AS WELL. MODELS BRING BACK SOME MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND SO WILL GO

WITH 20 POPS ON DAY 8. LOOKS LIKE THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL

FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR A CHANGE AND FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER.

[Srain]

San Angelo issues Winter Storm Warning for their NW CWA including Sweetwater and expand the Winter Storm Watch closer to San Angelo and Abilene.

[Srain]

Lubbock issues Winter Storm Warning for their southern CWA S of LUB proper.

[Quixotic1]

Since I'm out of town tuesday night, 4 - 8" will make me sick

[My Weather Today]

FYI...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

200 AM EST MON JAN 09 2012

...VALID 06Z MON JAN 09 2012 - 12Z TUE JAN 10 2012...

...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

MID TO UPR TX COASTAL REGION INTO SRN LA...

NO BIG CHANGES IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL

POTENTIAL OUTLOOK. WHILE FFG VALUES REMAIN HIGH ACRS TX/LA AHEAD

OF THE STRONG CLOSED LOW PUSHING EWD THIS PERIOD FROM THE SRN

NM/SWRN TX REGION INTO CNTRL TX...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN

ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION OVR THE MID TO UPR TX COASTAL

REGION/SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT. OVERALL...LATEST

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ONLY SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFS WITH THE

EWD PUSH OF THIS CLOSED LOW..WITH THE GFS BECOMING A SLIGHT FAST

OUTLIER FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE BY THE END OF THIS FCST

PERIOD. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFS CONT TO BE THE PCPN

DISTRIBUTION...WITH THE OPERATIONAL NAM AGAIN EMPHASIZING A NRN

PCPN MAX FROM INVOF MAF TO NORTH TX...BEING MUCH LIGHTER WITH PCPN

THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE FOR POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND

EAST OF THIS ACRS ECNTRL TX TO THE MID TO UPR COASTAL REGION OF TX

INTO LA. THERE WL LIKELY BE A HEAVY PCPN CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE

NAM IN THE WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PCPN BAND.

HOWEVER...WE CONT TO FAVOR MAX PCPN THIS PERIOD FARTHER TO THE

SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE STNRY FRONTAL PSN WHERE MAX INFLOW INTO

THE STNRY FRONTAL BNDRY AND THE EWD PUSHING COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW

IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A WELL DEFINED REGION OF CONVECTION. RNFL

RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HR WL BE PSBL MON AFTN INTO MON NIGHT ACRS

THESE AREAS THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLD RUNOFF/PONDING

PROBLEMS...ESPCLY IN URBAN AREAS.

ORAVEC

[My Weather Today]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

220 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXZ213-214-090900-

CHAMBERS-HARRIS-

220 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...STRONG STORM IN SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY...

AT 216 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF PASADENA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

15 MPH. THIS STORM IS ALSO SHOWING SOME ROTATION. WE WILL BE

MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNING.

FUNNEL CLOUDS...PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...ARE

POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAN JACINTO STATE

PARK...PASADENA...MORGAN`S POINT...LA PORTE...HIGHLANDS...DEER

PARK...BAYTOWN AND BARRETT.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS TO

BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR NON-CONVERTIBLE

AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0129 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 090729Z - 091000Z

MRGL SVR THREAT EXISTS OVER DISCUSSION AREA...INITIALLY FROM SMALL

SUPERCELLS IN WARM SECTOR OR ALONG FRONT DESCRIBED BELOW. ALTHOUGH

LOW-PROBABILITY IN NATURE...PER 01Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...A TORNADO

CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ANALYZED 6Z SFC CHART SHOWED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM

PROBABLE LOW OVER DATA VOID OF ERN COAHUILA...ENEWD OVER SRN

MAVERICK COUNTY...ACROSS SRN FRINGES SAT METRO AREA...TO NEAR

UTS...LFK AND NWRN LA. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST

SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WITH MINIMAL CINH FOR SFC DEW

POINTS MID 60S F...EXTENDING FROM THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SWD OVER

MIDDLE-UPPER COAST. CINH INCREASES SWWD FROM MIDDLE COAST TOWARD

RIO GRANDE BECAUSE OF STRONGER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. CINH ALSO

INCREASES IN LOWER-THETAE ENVIRONMENT S OF BOUNDARY OVER WRN LA AND

E-CENTRAL TX...AND OF COURSE NW OF FRONT. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...EXCEPT FOR SOME SWD

TRANSLATION OVER RIO GRANDE WITH FRONTAL-WAVE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE

SLOWLY ENEWD FROM MEX. NET RESULT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE

AIR MASS OVER MID-UPPER COASTAL PLAIN WHERE WEAK WAA OFFSETS WEAK

DIABATIC SFC COOLING...MLCAPE REMAINS IN 500-1200 J/KG RANGE.

INVERSION LAYER NEAR 700 MB APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING BASED ON RECENT

INCREASE IN LTG PRODUCTION FROM CELLS IN THIS AREA.

KINEMATICALLY...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORM-SCALE ROTATION

WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-55 KT AND 0-1 KM AGL SRH 100-200

J/KG...BASED ON SFC-MODIFIED LDB PROFILER DATA AND RUC HODOGRAPHS.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS OR HAIL WILL BEGIN FROM W-E

LATER...FROM ABOUT 09Z ONWARD...AS PLUME OF COOLING/ASCENT ALOFT

SPREADS OVER AREA IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LOW NOW APPARENT IN

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA.

[Srain]

From NESDIS...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/09/12 0259Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15/13 0245Z KUSSELSON

.

LOCATION...SW AND W CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

.

ATTN WFOS...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...UPPER LOW...DEFORMATION...SHORT WAVE FORCING AND NARROW MOISTURE

ADVECTION...JUST ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNWO FOR THE AREA...

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UPPER LOW HAS SUNK SOUTH TO THE AZ-NM-

MEXICO BORDER. JET MAX OF 100KT+ NOW COMING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE

TROUGH IN W CENTRAL MEXICO. SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS COME AROUND THE FRONT

PART OF THE TROUGH TO HELP IGNITE/COOL CLOUD TOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN THIRD

OF NEW MEXICO. ON TOP OF ALL THAT DEFORMATION GETTING BETTER ACROSS

C TO S NM FOR DYNAMIC MOISTURE INCREASE THAT WILL BE HELPED FURTHER

TO THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO SW TEXAS

AND S NM ON NARROW BUT DECENT 850MB LOW LEVLE WIND FLOW. WITH RIDGE

OVER THE PACIFIC NW SHIFTING EAST, THAT AND JET COMING AROUND LOW WILL

BEGIN TO SHIFT UPPER LOW MORE EAST SHORTLY AND ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT.

COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OF -47C IN AND AROUND EL PASO AREA CONSIDERABLY COLDER

THAN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPS...SO ANY CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -30C WILL

RESULT IN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINS AND EVEN MORE

ESPECIALLY IN OROGRAPHIC EAST FACING MOUNTAINS.

.

AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA

SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY

10-15 MINUTES.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0300-1200Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR

IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...NARROW BUT POTENT AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT

OF MODERATE MOISTURE (THOUGH NOT AS HIGH A MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS BACK

JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS) AIMED TOWARD SW TEXAS JUST AT THE TIME UPPER LOW

WILL BE TURNING SE FIRST HALF OF NIGHT AND EAST LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT

OR MONDAY MORNING FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION OF SNOW HIGH ELEVATIONS

AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW LOWER SPOTS FROM WEST TO EAST. BEST MOISTURE

TRANSPORT NOW FROM NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTY TO NEAR MIDLAND

INTO S NM AND SW TX...AND THAT IS WHERE HIGHEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH

MOUNTAIN/OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT HIGHER PRECIPITATION

AMOUNTS THE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SE NM AND SW TEXAS WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY

TO HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND POSSIBLY COMPARIBLE TO HIGHEST SPOTS ACROSS

S CENTRAL NM AND EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTY IN EXT SW TEXAS FOR LATER

TONIGHT.

[Srain]

HGX reporting trees down with this complex...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

458 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

NORTHERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 AM CST

* AT 454 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADISONVILLE... MOVING EAST AT 35

MPH. THIS STORM DOWN TREES IN NORTHWEST BRAZOS COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

SEBASTOPOL...TRINITY...MIDWAY AND LOVELADY

[Srain]

MAF reporting +SN near Wink with rates near 1-1.5 inch per hour.

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/09/12 1105Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1045Z JANKOT

.

LOCATION...TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...

.

ATTN WFOS...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...MOD TO HEAVY SNOWS

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO

SHOW UPPER-LOW JUST SSW OF NEW MEXICO WITH HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL

PATTERN TAKING SHAPE OVER W TX SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOD TO HEAVY SNOWS

NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE WIND PRODUCT INDICATES

SUB-TROPICAL JET NOSING INTO SW TX WITH DISCUSSION REGION IN LEFT

EXIT REGION OF JET PROVIDING FAVORABLE DYNAMICS TO INCREASE LIFT THIS

MORNING/AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DEFORMATION AXIS RIGHT THROUGH

WEST TX WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED LATER THIS MORNING AS

COLDER AIR ALOFT USHERS IN CHANGING MUCH OF PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. BLENDED

TPW HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS OF .6-.7"

THROUGHOUT DISCUSSION REGION PROVIDING IDEAL PW'S TO SUPPORT MOD TO HEAVY

SNOWS. THIS MOISTURE LEVEL IS RUNNING 175-225% ANOMALIES OF NORMAL. WITH

RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGHEST OMEGAS OVER DISCUSSION REGION THROUGH AT

LEAST 18Z EXPECT PRECIP TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

.

AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA

SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY

10-15 MINUTES.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1115-1515Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER W TX

EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UPWARDS OF 1-1.5"/HR SNOW RATES IN BEST BANDING

POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.

[Srain]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

519 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXC225-313-407-455-471-091145-

/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120109T1145Z/

HOUSTON TX-MADISON TX-SAN JACINTO TX-TRINITY TX-WALKER TX-

519 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 AM CST FOR WALKER...

TRINITY...SAN JACINTO...MADISON AND HOUSTON COUNTIES...

AT 512 AM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH ROTATION. THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED

7 MILES SOUTH OF MIDWAY...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING

EAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

SEBASTOPOL...TRINITY AND LOVELADY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OR DAMAGE

BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW!

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST

BRAZOS COUNTY.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU

SEE OR HEAR A TORNADO - TAKE COVER NOW!

[Srain]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

517 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

THIS INCLUDES...SINGER...MERRYVILLE...DE RIDDER...

* UNTIL 545 AM CST

* AT 515 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SINGER...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

JUNCTION AND TULLA

[Srain]

Storms with heavy rainfall rates moving into Austin County. Trends suggest training and areas upstream in Waller/NW Harris/Montgomery/Grimes and Walker Counties are in the path of this NE moving complex.

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/09/12 1138Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1132Z JANKOT

.

LOCATION...TEXAS...

.

ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...EWX...

ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...HEAVY RAINS

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WITH WATER VAPOR SHOWING TROF AXIS

SHIFTING EAST LAST SEVERAL HOURS EXPECT INCREASED HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS

MORNING AS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT. LAST FEW

IR IMAGES HAS SHOWN RAPIDLY EXPANDING AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER SE AND

E TX WITH MERGERS LIKELY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES. TOPS HAVE COOLED TO

-63C AND SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE LOW INVOF

COLORADO COUNTY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BLENDED TPW

PRODUCT HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW INCREASING GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO

E AND CENTRAL TX WITH DISCUSSION REGION SEEING ROUGHLY 1.4" PWATS. EXPECT

1-2"/HR RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF

CELL MERGERS.

.

AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA

SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY

10-15 MINUTES.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1145-1445Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT

TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN RATES FROM COLORADO ENE GRIMES COUNTY

NEXT FEW HOURS WITH 1-2"/HR RATES POSSIBLE. WITH SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE

MAXIMIZED OVER REGION EXPECT UPWIND DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME

TRAINING. 3 HR FFG IS HIGH SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDE SPREAD FLASH FLOODING

BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS A QUICK 2-4" OF RAIN IS

POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN SUCH HIGH MOISTURE.

[Srain]

Radar estimates suggest near 1.5 inch per hour rates in Fayette/Austin Counties slowly moving ENE.

[Srain]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

552 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXZ199-212-213-091245-

HARRIS-MONTGOMERY-WALLER-

552 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 547 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINEHURST...MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ROTATION AND

WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

FUNNEL CLOUDS...PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF

HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAGNOLIA...STAGECOACH

AND PINEHURST.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS TO

BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE OR NON-CONVERTIBLE

AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

[Srain]

FLOOD ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

558 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXC149-285-091400-

/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0001.120109T1158Z-120109T1400Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

FAYETTE-LAVACA-

558 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR

DRAINAGE AREAS IN...

CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY...

LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 800 AM CST

* AT 557 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE

DETECTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL FAYETTE

AND LAVACA COUNTIES. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF

BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO

OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER

CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING

INCLUDE...HALLETTSVILLE...MOULTON...SCHULENBURG...SHINER...

YOAKUM...EZZELL...SPEAKS AND SUBLIME.

[Srain]

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

531 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL

CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST AND

NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL

LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS TODAY AND

TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DRIFTING TOWARD

THE FOUR STATE REGION ACROSS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM

THAT WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS THE AREA.

DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC MOISTURE

WILL BE COMBINING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER-RIDING THE SURFACE

BOUNDARY...TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

WHICH WILL BE DEVELOPING AND RIDING OVER THE SAME GENERAL

LOCATIONS.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-

TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-091930-

/O.NEW.KSHV.FF.A.0001.120109T1200Z-120110T1000Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-

COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-

UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-

NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-

FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-

HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-

SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...

PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...

SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...

FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...

MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...

JENA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...

PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...

JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...

CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...

HEMPHILL

531 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...

SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...

IN ARKANSAS...COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...

LITTLE RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER AND UNION AR. IN

LOUISIANA...BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...

CLAIBORNE...DE SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA SALLE...LINCOLN...

NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED RIVER...SABINE LA...UNION LA...

WEBSTER AND WINN. IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MCCURTAIN. IN

TEXAS...ANGELINA...BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...

GREGG...HARRISON...MARION...MORRIS...NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...

RED RIVER...RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...

SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR AND WOOD.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER

THE SAME AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD ONE TO NEAR

THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO FOUR OR FIVE INCHES.

* LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE RISING WATER

THAT COULD POSE A THREAT TO MOTORISTS AND PROPERTY OWNERS.

HEAVY RAIN OVER HILLY AND MOUNTAINOUS AREAS CAN PRODUCE RAPID

WATER RUNOFF THAT CAN MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS LOW WATER CROSSINGS

AND BRIDGES.

[Srain]

TORNADO WARNING

TXC339-091300-

/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0003.120109T1202Z-120109T1300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

602 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 AM CST

* AT 600 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED NEAR MAGNOLIA... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

MAGNOLIA...LAKE CONROE DAM...WILLIS...PINEHURST...PANORAMA VILLAGE

AND CONROE.

[Srain]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

610 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXC373-407-455-091245-

/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120109T1245Z/

POLK TX-SAN JACINTO TX-TRINITY TX-

610 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CST FOR

TRINITY...SAN JACINTO AND POLK COUNTIES...

AT 606 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS

LOCATED NEAR TRINITY...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. A BROAD

ROTATION IS STILL PRESENT WITH THIS STORM...BUT HAS TRENDED WEAKER

WITH TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO MAKE SURE THIS IS NOT

TEMPORARY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

TRINITY...SEBASTOPOL AND NORTHERN LAKE LIVINGSTON

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Highly active weather day on tap for today.

Potent upper level low near El Paso this morning will drive heavy rainfall and a slight chance of severe thunderstorms today. Main threat will focus on the rainfall potential. Diffuse frontal boundary currently is nearly stationary along a line from Lufkin to Brenham to NW of Victoria and then WSW to a surface low over the Rio Grande plains. Numerous HP supercells have developed along this boundary this morning with excessive short term rainfall rates and weak low level rotation. Streaks of very heavy rainfall 2-3 inches have already been observed by both Doppler radar and HCFCD rain gage network. Given the increasing large scale lift approaching from the upper level low to our west along with a slow moving surface boundary in the region, heavy to excessive rainfall is likely today with moisture levels pushing 175-200% above normal for early January. PWS have surged into the 1.3-1.5 inch range overnight and may peak near 1.6 inches by early this afternoon with the air mass saturated from the surface to the upper levels. This is support excessive rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour under the stronger cells. While cell motions have been 10-15mph this morning, the stronger supercells have tended to anchor in the low level flow and stretch out allowing a longer duration of heavy rainfall over the same location. Additionally, storms have been forming in linear lines and training toward the NNE which is also adding to the short term rainfall totals. Given some locations have already received over 3 inches this morning, feel storm totals will need to be bumped up to isolated amounts of 5-6 inches. Amounts of this magnitude would normal require a Flash Flood Watch, but the ongoing drought and overall dry soil conditions and low watershed water levels will preclude a watch at this time. However rapid street flooding and significant rises on urban bayous will be possible today with short term excessive rainfall.

Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be widespread today with isolated totals of 5-6 inches especially in training lines.

Other threat is the severe threat and this is marginal and mainly limited to a weak tornado threat along and SE of the above mentioned frontal boundary. Low level wind shear is more than favorable for storm rotation and in fact we have already seen rotation and warnings issued for cells up north around Huntsville this morning. However even with the favorable low level shear in place, instability remains limited so the threat for tornadoes while nonzero is low. Any storm rotation that does form will likely be short lived, but could produce a brief spin up. Current cell over SW Montgomery County looks particularly nasty.

Area will be under the gun through late this afternoon or until the surface low moves east of SE TX dragging the frontal boundary off the coast along with the deep moisture. While the upper level storms will not cross the area until later tonight, it appears a dry slot on the southern flank of the system will sweep into the region by mid evening helping to end the rainfall. Upper storm will be crossing eastern TX early Tuesday with wrap around clouds and possibly some light rainfall over our northern and eastern counties.

Strong cold front expected to cross the region Wednesday with a decent tap of cold air dropping into the plains and southward into TX ending this mild stretch of weather. Potential for light freezes both Thursday and Friday mornings. Models remain in poor agreement on if/when the next storm system/ short wave affects TX and how much cold air is in place. For now will side with the slower model solutions and delay the onset of any rain chances until next weekend.

[Srain]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

640 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

TXZ210>212-226-227-091345-

AUSTIN-COLORADO-FORT BEND-WALLER-WHARTON-

640 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 638 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

BELLVILLE TO 11 MILES WEST OF SEALY TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAGLE

LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE

POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ROCK ISLAND...NADA...

MONAVILLE...GARWOOD...EGYPT...CAT SPRING...SEALY...SAN FELIPE...

PATTISON...EAGLE LAKE...BROOKSHIRE AND BELLVILLE.

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0651 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 091251Z - 091745Z

RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION HAS BEGUN OVER LOWER PECOS REGION GENERALLY

FROM INK-FST. PRIND RATES WILL INCREASE TO 1-2 INCHES/HOUR IN

INCREASINGLY WELL-ORGANIZED PRECIP BAND INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM WRN

PECOS COUNTY NWD OVER WINKLER COUNTY. EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OFFER

LOCALIZED/BRIEF RATES ABOVE 2 INCHES/HOUR.

SNOW AREA SHOULD PIVOT CYCLONICALLY IN KEEPING WITH EWD SHIFT OF

MID-UPPER LOW...WHILE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE BENEATH ELEVATED MOIST

CONVEYOR. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN

OPTIMAL DENDRITIC-GROWTH LAYER MOVES ACROSS REGION. EXPECT INCREASE

IN SNOW RATES OVER MAF AREA AND NWD/NEWD TOWARD PORTIONS

GARZA/LYNN/TERRY COUNTIES...WHILE HEAVY SNOW AREA SNOW

EXPANDS/SHIFTS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS PECOS/CROCKETT/REAGAN/

GLASSCOCK/HOWARD COUNTIES THROUGH 16Z. SFC TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO

DECREASE THROUGH MID-LOW 30S F FROM W-E...FROM COMBINATION OF

BOUNDARY-LAYER CAA...WEAK WET-BULB COOLING...AND COLUMNAR DYNAMIC

COOLING. MEANWHILE RELATIVE WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-800 MB WILL

CONTINUE TO COOL...WHILE RH INCREASES WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH COLUMN

AS WELL. THESE PROCESSES WILL FOSTER RAIN-SNOW CHANGEOVER IN ERN

PARTS OF DISCUSSION AREA...AND MAINTAIN SNOW AS DOMINANT

WINTER-PRECIP PHASE. OBSERVED 12Z MAF SOUNDING AND MODIFIED RUC

FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS TREND...AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY STEEP

MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MUCAPE 100-300 J/KG ROOTED NEAR 700

MB AND EXTENDING INTO ICING LAYERS SUITABLE FOR LTG GENERATION.

THEREFORE OCNL THUNDERSNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MORE OF AREA...WITH LTG

ALREADY DETECTED BETWEEN MAF-FST.

..EDWARDS.. 01/09/2012

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[Ed Lizard]

Looks like my eternal optimism re "fun-derstorms" may be rewarded. I would not be surprised if warned supercell are slightly elevated, but if a tor warned cell was approaching my house, I wouldn't assume it wasn't surface based. We all know what happens when we assume.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0559 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX...MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL

PLAIN...SWRN LA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091159Z - 091430Z

CONVECTIVE REGIME DISCUSSED IN EARLIER MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 7 IS

UNDERGOING EWD AND COASTWARD SHIFTS IN GEOGRAPHY AND AMIDST GEN

INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE...HOWEVER OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TOO

MRGL/ISOLATED FOR WW ATTM. STILL...THREAT FOR A TORNADO AND/OR

ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST IS NONZERO...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH

REMAINDER EARLY-MID MORNING WITH SLOW SHIFT EWD OVER AREA.

FURTHERMORE...MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA APPEARS TO

HAVE BEGUN ITS EWD TURN AS PROGGED. AS RELATED FIELDS OF MID-LEVEL

DESTABILIZATION SHIFT EWD...LAPSE RATES AWAY FROM ANTECEDENT TSTMS

SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...FROM W-E...WHILE

FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MAINTAINED. AS SUCH...HAIL WILL

BECOME MORE PROBABLE ON EITHER SIDE OF SFC FRONT...SIZES BEING

PRIMARILY SUBSEVERE TO ISOLATED MRGL-SVR BASED ON SOUNDING ANALOGS

AND OUTPUT FROM 2-D HAIL MODEL.

1130Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM

CENTRAL/NRN LA SWWD THROUGH INFLECTION POINT OVER HOUSTON/WALKER

COUNTIES TX...CORRESPONDING CLOSELY TO MESOCYCLONE OF POTENTIALLY

SVR TSTM THERE. FRONT EFFECTIVELY HAS BEEN SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BY

CUMULATIVE OUTFLOW FARTHER SW...PRODUCED BY INCREASINGLY DENSE BAND

OF TSTMS...AND WAS EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS GRIMES/COLORADO/KARNES

COUNTIES. FRONT THEN ARCHED THROUGH WAVE LOW THAT HAS MOVED ENEWD

FROM MEX...TO NEAR COT. EXPECT MOST OF FRONT TO SHIFT SEWD THROUGH

REMAINDER MORNING TOWARD COAST...AIDED ON MESOBETA SCALE BY TSTM

OUTFLOW. THIS WILL SHRINK THAT PORTION OF WARM SECTOR CONTAINING

EFFECTIVELY SFC-BASED PARCELS...WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 250

J/KG OVER SWRN LA TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG MIDDLE TX COAST.

PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND SRH EACH HAVE

DECREASED SOMEWHAT SINCE 07Z IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAKENING/VEERING

OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCNL SUPERCELL

ORGANIZATION. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POTENTIAL FOR A

TORNADO SHOULD BE INVOF FRONT. WITH WEAK CINH...EXPECT OVERALL

INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE TO CONTINUE. WITH TIME...THIS WILL

FURTHER COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE MODES...WITH CLUSTERED AND

QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURES BECOMING MORE PREVALENT.

..EDWARDS.. 01/09/2012

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[Srain]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

717 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

NORTHERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CST

* AT 712 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING

FROM SEALY TO EAGLE LAKE TO 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAGLE LAKE...AND

MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT

LIMITED TO EAGLE LAKE...WALLIS...SIMONTON...EAST BERNARD AND

BROOKSHIRE.

[Srain]

E-mail update from Jeff:

SPC has just upgraded all of SE TX into a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today.

Moist and unstable warm sector has moved inland and currently resides along and SE of a line from Lufkin to Brenham to NW of Victoria. Air mass south of this line is extremely moist with surface dewpoints of 65-70 degrees. Low level winds are remaining backed to the SE this morning as surface low pressure develops over SW TX. Numerous cells this morning have produce low level rotation and a couple have produced actual wind damage. Air mass over the area is slightly more unstable than models suggest and this is leading to a slight increase in the threat for severe weather and tornadoes. Extremely low cloud bases and favorable helicity values of 300-400 in the surface to 3km level is suggestive of good low level rotation within supercells. Any tornadoes that form will be on the weak side and likely rain wrapped with the extremely moist air mass. Warning lead times will be on the low side. This is the type of set up that produces quick short lived tornadoes with little to no warning.

Additionally, a line of thunderstorms with leading edge bows over southern Austin and northern Wharton Counties currently will likely produce strong winds of 50-60mph into Waller, Wharton and Fort Bend Counties over the next 1-2 hours. The forward bow on the Doppler velocity data over southern Austin County currently is fairly impressive and wind damage is likely in progress along I-10 in this region.

Doppler Radar is also showing storm totals now approaching 4-5 inches over SW Montgomery County where an HP supercell has elongated into a nearly stationary line of heavy rainfall. Significant run-off is likely being generated in this area given the impressive short term rainfall rates of +2.0 inches.