Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Ed Lizard]

I don't trust any forecast tonight through tomorrow night except for generalities.

The mid level low in West Texas looks to be moving NW

I don't see any obvious disturbance that will come flinging by at any particular time to increase rainfall to any particular place in Texas, although I'm sure there is something not immediately obvious.

[#NoPoles]

Thank god. I was shuddering thinking about going through typical nina climo this winter.....and then this summer and fall.....The drought could have been much worse.

the severity of the drought is pretty fantastic...we're talking about the drought-caused death of upwards of 500mill mature trees...that is amazing!

[Ed Lizard]

Cold and windy early in 2012.

[Ed Lizard]

Several Euro runs in a row dump some serious cold air into the Southern Plains. I'm told the source region isn't as bad as it could be, ie cross-polar Siberian air, but the Euro still looks cold, dry and miserable, with some moderate showers to herald the arrival of the Canadian air.

[bubba hotep]

Several Euro runs in a row dump some serious cold air into the Southern Plains. I'm told the source region isn't as bad as it could be, ie cross-polar Siberian air, but the Euro still looks cold, dry and miserable, with some moderate showers to herald the arrival of the Canadian air.

Yeah, I noticed that and would kind of rather the GFS and the warmer weather it is showing

[bubba hotep]

Fantasy land GFS is close to being good times for all buy it misses as it goes on to lay waste to all from east Texas to the east coast

[Ed Lizard]

Fog is weather, I suppose. Euro doesn't look too exciting the next 10 days locally.

[DoctorMu]

el-Lay weather settles in as we're in the zonal flow. Hope an impulse or two rides our way in the New Year as a trough settles somewhere over the eastern half of the country.

[bubba hotep]

After a series of absolutely painfully boring runs the 18z GFS at least has a couple of entertaining fantasy panels.

Also, the mid-atl forum has some comedy gold! Man I miss living up there

[DoctorMu]

After a series of absolutely painfully boring runs the 18z GFS at least has a couple of entertaining fantasy panels.

Also, the mid-atl forum has some comedy gold! Man I miss living up there

LOL We're not giving up yet!

[Quixotic1]

00 runs just awful. Euro is aggravating to say the least. Trough for early part of the week keeps getting shoved east. GFS doesn't really give us any fantasy shots, though the long term looks cold but no precip.......and then depression set in.

[Srain]

The guidance is in good agreement suggesting a cold front will pass overnight into early New Years morning and should be off the coast by daybreak. A light freeze still appears to be likely Monday and Tuesday nights before a warm up begins.

Looking ahead to next weekend, the operational guidance is suggesting an upper low sliding S into the Great Basin and slowly ejecting E bringing a chance of rain for the first weekend in January.

Looking a bit further ahead into the long range, the GFS ensembles are suggesting a nice cool down across NW Canada and hints of a building Ridge a touch further W in the N Pacific (+PNA) with a slight decrease in the AO index which has been raging very positive for over 43 day. The operational GFS even hints at a bit of blocking (-NAO) near Greenland that may be the beginning of a pattern change for the second half of January.

[bubba hotep]

I was wondering if you were ok since you hadn't posted in a bit. Yeah, the boring zonalish flow that was being depicted doesn't look to last as long as 1st feared. The models have been pretty consistent with dropping that system into the SW but are still having trouble with the timing.

[Srain]

I was a bit under the weather last weekend, but I am feeling much better. Although it is long range, I am interested in what continues to show up regarding a nice pattern change. The 12Z operational GFS continues to advertise some chilly air building in NW Canada and a possible wintry weather event for portions of Texas mid January. This makes about 5-7 days worth of output from the GFS operational and ensemble runs suggesting a return to 'colder weather' in the mid January time frame.

[Ed Lizard]

I was a bit under the weather last weekend, but I am feeling much better. Although it is long range, I am interested in what continues to show up regarding a nice pattern change. The 12Z operational GFS continues to advertise some chilly air building in NW Canada and a possible wintry weather event for portions of Texas mid January. This makes about 5-7 days worth of output from the GFS operational and ensemble runs suggesting a return to 'colder weather' in the mid January time frame.

For what is is woth, some variance in precise position of the troughs, but the GFS Ensembles generally support the Op GFS even that far out...

[Srain]

There is very little agreement via the 00Z guidance regarding next weekend. The Euro/Canadian suggests an upper low dropping S into the Southern Rockies. The Euro would have a closed cold core upper low slowly crossing Central/SE TX Monday into Tuesday (1/9-10). The UKMET suggests the upper low will travel across S Texas next weekend while the GFS has lost the closed low all together keeping nothing but an open trough passing to our N and then redeveloping a trough to our E.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS now shows the upper-level low at the same time frame suggested by the 0z Euro operational run.

[Srain]

The 12Z suite of operationals is in and there is some agreement regarding a robust upper low developing to our W. As we saw in December, these upper low give guidance fits and are very difficult to forecast beyond the 3-5 day range. What does appear likely is another unsettled pattern will develop next weekend with a possible Winter Storm for the Southern Rockies/S Plains and rains to the S as well as a possible coastal trough/low development as the U/L ejects NE.

Looking a bit further out, the GFS and its ensembles continue to advertise a stormy pattern for mid January. The 12Z OP Euro is beginning to get into range for that period and it is also 'sniffing' some very chilly air building in NW Canada.

[Srain]

An interesting snip from DDC regarding late next weekend into the January 8-10 time frame...

LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE SEEING A BREAKDOWN OF THE LARGE WESTERN

RIDGE...AND A TRANSITION TO TROUGHING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE

INTERIOR WEST. WE WILL LIKELY EEK OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY FRIDAY BEFORE

A TREND COOLER BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND DETERMINISTIC

GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK

DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN...BUT THAT IS WHERE THE SIMILARITY

IN THE TWO MODELS ENDS.

THE ECMWF PROCEEDS THEN TO CLOSE OFF A MID LEVEL CYCLONE AS SIGNIFICANT

UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IN A VERY FAMILIAR ANTICYCLONIC

WAVE BREAK LIKE WE SAW BACK IN MID-DECEMBER...PRIOR TO THE BIG DECEMBER

19-20 BLIZZARD. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEVER

CLOSES OFF A CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR SIGNIFICANT

ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAKING LOWS SO FAR THIS COLD SEASON OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN

CONUS...THE IDEA OF YET ANOTHER ONE OCCURRING ISN`T ALL THAT CRAZY...AND

IN FACT IS PROBABLY THE BETTER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE GIVEN THE BASE

STATE OF THE PLANETARY CIRCULATION REGIME OVER THE PAST MONTH OR TWO.

THE UPSHOT IS THAT WILL BE LOOKING FOR AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION

ENTERING THE PICTURE DURING THE JAN 8 (SUNDAY) THROUGH JAN 11 (WEDNESDAY)

TIME FRAME IF THE ECMWF HAS ANY VALIDITY WHATSOEVER IN THE FAR OUT PERIODS.

IT IS SOMETHING CERTAINLY OF INTEREST IN THE MEDIUM RANGE THAT WE

WILL BE FOLLOWING OVER THE COMING DAYS.

[Srain]

A light freeze is looking likely for tonight as areas N of I-10 appear to be set to see ideal radiational cooling with temps in the upper 20's. Some areas S of I-10 may flirt with near freezing temps for an hour or two. Warmer temps and a dry frontal passage near mid week will offer warm days and cool nights. Fog may return by the weekend.

The next chance of precip appears in the medium range toward late next weekend as the Euro continues to advertise a potent Winter Storm taking shape across New Mexico and W and Panhandle regions of Texas and Oklahoma. If the Euro is correct, some areas along and N of I-20 may see chances of wintry mischief as a robust cold core upper low crosses the Lone Star State early next week.

Looking further ahead, guidance continues to suggest an active period beginning mid January with possible chances of the coldest air of the season building in Western Canada and beginning to drop S into the Intermountain West and Great Plains. There are some indications that a full pattern change may well be in the works in the extended as re-inforcing Arctic Air builds in NW and Western Canada. Enjoy the warmth while it lasts as changes may well be in the works...

[Srain]

Heh...

[Srain]

Looking a bit further out in GFS land, the operational and ensembles are exactly opposite of each other The OP GFS took away the cold air and suggested a +PNA, +EPO (Slightly) and +AO (Slightly) while the GFS ensembles suggest other wise regarding the mid month time frame with a -PNA, -AO (-3.5 or greater) and -EPO . What we often see during a pattern change regime is guidance struggle and flip flop, so don't get too caught up in any one solution. I am more encouraged after seeing the OP 12Z Euro that in fact a change is in the works for the mid- late January time frame.

[Srain]

I'll also add that the 12Z UKMet has joined the Euro solution for the late weekend/early next week time frame suggesting a cyclone crossing Texas. HPC update remains unchanged and credence is given to the #1 Euro and #2 UKMet 500mb solution in scoring...

FINAL...

MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL

ISSUANCE. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING

OF THE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE

GFS ABANDONING THE IDEA OF AN ORGANIZED CYCLONE THIS RUN...AND THE

UKMET SPINNING UP A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DAY 6.

THE UPDATE PACKAGE REFLECTED A FLATTER SYSTEM THAN WHAT WAS

DEPICTED BY THE MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE SHOWN THE IMPULSE...SO FEEL

THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IS COVERED THEREIN FOR THE FINAL.

[Ed Lizard]

^^ That seems to have been the general formula the last two snow miracles December 2008 and 2009, not going to bite yet, but will watch with great interest.

[Srain]

LCH has issued Freeze Warnings/Hard Freeze Warnings for our neighbors in far SE TX/SW LA for tonight into tomorrow morning.

[Srain]

Some very interesting developments via the 00Z Operational suite tonight. The GFS now has the upper low, but is very progressive and brings it through on Saturday and dry with a secondary stronger short wave passing nex Monday night. The Canadian is a bit progressive and keeps the moisture N of SE TX, but drips temps below freezing on next Monday. The Euro/UKMet suggests a potent upper low will drop through the Southern Rockies into Central/SE TX and do have some moisture to work with as the upper low passes next Monday into Tuesday.

The Euro and Canadian in the longer range near the 13th drop a strong Arctic boundary into Texas while the GFS holds the very chilly air just to the N in Kansas as a potent Winter Storm develops in the longer range. The GFS would keep the coldest air to the N and cold builds in NW Canada and the Intermountain West through the end of the period.

Edit to add the GFS Ensembles are similar to the op Euro suggesting a nice chill down near mid January. Cold air countinues to build in the longer range in NW Canada setting the stage for what may be an interesting late January...

[Ed Lizard]

Euro not quite as favorable for a Texas Snow Miracle as the 12Z run, and surface temps will be an issue, but I will remain glass quarter full on a snow miracle that allows me to stay up to watch the entire BCS Championship game and go into work 2 hours late and claim I had to wait for the snow to melt.

Only a brief window, light precip, thicknesses near 5340 meters and 850 mb temps below freezing, but Euro forecast 2 meter temps don't get much below 5ºC, per AccuWx PPV. But its only one run, and did anyone think Texas, losing 3 or its last 4, only win against the pathetic Aggies, had a chance against the Cal team that won 3 of its last four, only loss by a field goal to #4 Stanford? Anyone think Eli Manning could beat the undefeated Pats. The 2005-2006 Longhorns could beat the semi-pro Trojans with Reggie Bush making $100,000 to play?

Snow miracles happen, not giving up hope/

[bubba hotep]

Looks like the 6z GFS went with the more Euro thinking for the system coming through early next week. There is a lot of time until then and the models have really struggled with these types of systems. It seems like the trend so far this winter is for these systems to cutoff, dig deeper into the SW and eject slower than modeled, esp in the 4-7 day time frame. Paging cold air!

The has been a lot of chatter about there being more cold in the long range and that it could be more west based.

[wxmx]

Cold source region (Canada) is very warm, that makes surface temps unfavorable for wintry precip...unless upper low is potent, moist, slow and surface is a bit dry (evaporational cooling/wet bulbs), I would be against any snow miracles, on top of the rarity of such events in SE TX. But I will cheer for you, the underdog gets my support most of the time.

[Srain]

Jeff offers a great 2011 Weather Review in his morning e-mail:

2011 will long be remember as the year of historic drought and heat in the state of Texas. Hundreds of rainfall and temperatures records were set of which many will stand for years and decades to come. Below is a list of some of the more memorable weather events of 2011.

Jan 9, 2011:

A strong storm system resulted in damaging winds over S TX (bow echo), coastal flooding on the upper TX coast and snow over N TX.

Alice TX: 67mph wind gust

Seadrift, TX: 70mph wind gust.

Placedo, TX: 70mph wind gust

A rare January tornado struck Robstown, TX with EF 2 damage. This was the first time a tornado had been recorded in S TX dating back to 1950.

Jan 12, 2011:

Major arctic cold front brought hard freezes to the region.

IAH: 26

Sugar Land: 25

Tomball: 25

Conroe: 22

Madisonville: 18

Feb 1, 2011:

Coldest arctic intrusion in nearly 20 years brought temperatures in the 20’s and teens for lows and highs near freezing for 3-4 days in early February. Extended period of sub-freezing temperatures resulted in frozen pipes and power outages across the state. At Austin temperatures were below freezing for 69.5 hours. Even at Brownsville the temperature was below freezing for 31 hours. This was one of the most significant arctic outbreaks since the outbreak of December 1989. Lows on the 2nd fell to :

IAH: 21

Sugar Land: 20

Conroe: 19

Brenham: 18

Tomball: 19

Palacios: 23

Wharton: 24

Lubbock: 2

Fort Worth: 12

Waco: 16

Amarillo: -2

Feb 3-4, 2011:

With a very cold arctic air mass in place a southern stream storm system moved across the state. The result was snow over N TX and freezing rain over SE TX, the coastal bend, and S TX. Ice accumulations of .10 to .25 of an inch resulted from the period of freezing rain from late on the 3rd into the early morning of the 4th. Nearly every major freeway in SE TX reported ice and many were closed including all of the Toll Road system. In the 24 hour period from late on the 3rd to late on the 4th over 900 accidents were recorded across Harris County with 4 fatalities due to ice related accidents across the state.

Feb 9, 2011:

Secondary arctic front brought a brief period of freezing rain to the area on the afternoon of the 9th. Minor icing occurred on some bridges north and west of Harris County. Lows on the 10th:

Austin: 19

College Station: 22

Conroe: 22

BUSH IAH: 25

Tomball: 22

Port Lavaca: 26

Amarillo: -6

Feb 10, 2011:

Bartlesville, OK falls to -28 for the overnight low setting a new all –time record low for the entire state. The old record was -27 in Vinita in 1905.

April 10, 2011:

One of many devastating wild fire event days across Texas in 2011. Several large wildfires developed over portions of NC and W TX with over 204 fires in the first 7 days of April. 620 structures had been lost in the first 4 months on the year in a year that would see horrible losses due to wildfires across the state. One of the most destructive fires was the Possum Kingdom fire which burned over 30 homes and 45,000 acres. The Marfa Fire in West TX burned over 182,000 acres and 23 homes.

April 27, 2011:

100+ acre wildfire developed just NW of Huntsville west of I-45

April 27-28, 2011:

Historic tornado outbreak produces incredible damage of death over MS, AL, GA, and TN. 316 persons were killed with 234 in Alabama alone making this outbreak the third deadliest behind the Super Outbreak of 1974 (368 deaths) and the Palm Sunday Outbreak of 1965 (337 deaths) along with over 2,400 injuries. Complete damage figures from the outbreak totaled 4.2 billion dollars. Several long tracked EF 4 and EF 5 tornadoes moved across Alabama including the extremely large and destructive Tuscaloosa Tornado. All totaled the combined track lengths of all the tornadoes was just over 1000 miles. There were five EF 4 and EF 5 tornadoes during this outbreak and they were responsible for the majority of the fatalities (208). The long tracks of the tornadoes, their extreme intensity, and impact on densely populated areas resulted on the extreme damage and high death rate, even with fairly long average lead warning times and extensive local media coverage. A NWS assessment was conducted on this event and can be found here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/historic_tornadoes.pdf

Feb, Mar, Apr:

Houston records less than 1 inch of rainfall for the 3 month period making it the driest ever spring ever.

May 10, 2011:

47% of the state of Texas falls into D4 exceptional drought on the US Drought Monitor, with 82% of the state in extreme or exceptional drought.

May 22, 2011:

Another tornado disaster this time in Joplin, MO. An EF 5 tornado struck the city late on the afternoon of the 22nd killing 160 residents and injuring over 990. This was the first tornado to result in over 100 fatalities from a single tornado since the Flint, MI tornado of June 1953. The damage path was 22 miles long and at times 1 mile wide with wind speeds greater than 200mph across the city of Joplin. The extremely destructive EF4/5 damage path was 6 miles long and roughly ½ to ¾ of a mile wide. Roughly 16,650 homes were damaged with insured losses at 2.2 billion dollars. 54% of the fatalities were persons in their homes.

A NWS assessment was conducted on this event and can be found here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/Joplin_tornado.pdf

May 23, 2011:

Hobby Airport had only recorded .19 of an inch of rainfall in the last 69 days.

May 23, 2011:

70mph wind gust recorded in Edna, TX from thunderstorms along with 1.75 inch diameter hail in Columbus, TX

June 5-6, 2011:

BUSH IAH records 105 degrees both days, the hottest for so early in the year. Establishes a new all-time June record high for the City.

June 13, 2011:

140 acre wildfire developed near the Montgomery/Harris County line threatening 6 homes. 1400 acre wildfire was burning out of control in heavy pine forest in Hardin County.

Hobby Airport had only recorded rainfall on 1 day out of the last 86 days and only 1.41 inches since Jan 26.

June 19, 2011:

Extreme drought conditions combined with gusty winds and low humidity resulted in the formation of several wildfires over the Father’s Day weekend.

The Bearing Fire in (Polk and Trinity counties) consumed over 21,000 acres and burned 6 structures.

The Dyer Mill Fire in (Grimes County) burned over 6,000 acres and 35 homes. 1800 homes were evacuated.

The Midway Fire (Walker and Madison counties) burned over 2,500 acres and threatened 20 homes.

The Powerline Fire (Jasper County) burned over 4,000 acres and threatened 1500 homes.

June 23, 2011:

First widespread rainfall since January produced 1-2 inches of rainfall across the region

College Station: 2.45

Huntsville: 1.43

Conroe: 1.40

Brenham: 1.98

Sugar Land: 1.72

BUSH IAH: .80

Hobby: 1.08

League City: 2.32

Pearland: .49

Wharton: 2.19

Palacios: 1.08

Angleton: 1.48

Galveston: .73

Baytown: 1.32

Cleveland: 1.12

10 SE Victoria: 2.01

This rainfall ended the streak of back to back days with less than .25 of an inch of rainfall at BUSH IAH at 99 (the old record was 71). It also ended the back to back days with less than .50 of an inch of rainfall at 148 (the old record was 93)

June 24, 2011:

Lake Travis fall to 34 feet below its conservation pool.

June 26, 2011

Amarillo, TX reaches 111 degrees establishing a new all-time record high

June 30, 2011:

Statewide PDSI values falls to -6.37 for the month of June making the drought the 3rd worst on record by PDSI values.

July 15, 2011

72% of the state fell into exceptional drought and 91% was either in exceptional or extreme drought. For the period from Feb-June 2011, IAH had recorded 4.34 inches of rainfall (previous record was 8.39 inches). 244 out of 254 TX counties had burn bans in place. Tomball reaches a rainfall deficit of -28.25 inches since October 2010.

July 29, 2011:

Tropical Storm Don crosses the lower TX coast across Kennedy County, TX with nearly no rainfall and 40-50mph winds.

August 4, 2011:

Lake Somerville falls to 57% of its storage capacity. Lake Travis falls to -41.34 feet below its conservation pool. Lake Conroe fall to -3.70 feet below its conservation pool.

August 9, 2011:

Huntsville establishes a new record of consecutive days at or above 100 degrees of 44.

August 16, 2011:

The City of Houston enacts stage 2 water conservation and orders water to be released from Lake Conroe to stabilize Lake Houston’s rapid decline (50 million gallons per day).

August 22, 2011:

Driest Feb-August 22 period at both IAH and Hobby Airport. At IAH, 5.10 inches of rainfall would be required to move to second driest and 6.25 inches at Hobby Airport.

August 23, 2011:

BUSH IAH records its 33 100 degree day in 2011 breaking the old record of 32 in 1980.

August 24, 2011:

Severe weather with damaging winds move into the region from the NE.

69mph wind reported at Snook, TX and 70mph winds at Lake Conroe.

August 25, 2011:

Clouds and spotty rainfall prevent BUSH IAH from reaching 100 degrees ending the 100 degree day streak at 24 days (previous record was 14 days set in 1980)

August 27-28, 2011:

Incredible Heat

27th

BUSH IAH: 109 (tied all-time record of 109 on 9-4-2000, record of 104 in 1990 shattered, hottest Aug day ever old record 108 in 1909)

Hobby Airport: 106 (broke record of 103 in 1990, tied hottest Aug day ever old record was 106 in 1962)

Galveston: 100 (broke record of 99 in 1990, only the 7th time Galveston has hit 100 degrees ever)

College Station: 109 (broke record high of 104 in 1990, tied hottest Aug day ever)

Austin Bergstrom: 108 (broke record of 105 in 1990)

Austin Mabry: 110 ( broke record of 106 in 1990)

San Antonio: 106 (broke record of 102 in 1990)

Waco: 110 (broke record of 106 in 1990, 2 degrees shy of all-time record high of 112 in 1969)

Victoria: 106 (broke record of 104 in 1912)

Corpus Christi: 102 (tied record of 102 in 1990)

28th

BUSH IAH: 107 (broke record of 101 in 1902)

Hobby: 103 (broke record of 98 in 1999)

College Station: 109 (broke record of 103 in 1928, tied previous day for hottest Aug day ever)

Waco: 109 (broke record of 104 in 1998)

San Antonio: 110 (shattered record of 101 in 1940, hottest Aug day ever old record was 108 in 1986)

Austin Bergstrom: 110 (shattered record of 102 in 1990)

Austin Mabry: 112 (shattered record of 104 in 1990, tied all-time record high of 112 on 9-4-2000)

Victoria: 109 (broke record of 103 in 1912, hottest Aug day ever)

Corpus Christi: 107 (broke record of 102 in 2005, hottest Aug day ever)

Cotulla: 111

2011 Days at or above 100 Degrees:

BUSH IAH: 38 (old record was 32 in 1980)

Hobby: 16 (old record was 13 in 1998/2000)

Conroe: 43 (old record was 42 in 1998)

Huntsville: 62 (old record was 43 in 1980)

College Station: 55 (record is 58 in 1917)

Austin Mabry: 73 (old record was 69 in 1925)

Austin Bergstrom: 60 (old record was 55 in 2009)

Del Rio: 77 (record is 78 in 1953)

San Antonio: 47 (record is 59 in 2009)

Waco: 76 (old record was 63 in 1980)

DFW: 62 (record is 69 in 1980)

Hurricane Irene makes landfall near New York City as a strong tropical storm after battering much of the US east coast.

August 30, 2011

Another massive wildfire developed near Possum Kingdom Lake in N TX burning over 7500 acres and 25-35 homes.

August 2011:

Hottest August ever recorded for the City of Houston with an average temperature for the month of 90.4 degrees (old record was 87.9 degrees). PDSI value falls to -7.75 the second lowest in state history behind the 1950’s drought.

September 3, 2011:

Tropical Storm Lee moves into Louisiana with dry gusty winds and low RH developing over TX.

September 4, 2011:

Strong winds of 30-40mph and RH values of less than 30% combined with extremely dry fuels from the ongoing drought produce a period of incredible fire weather across the state. In the early afternoon of the 4th arcing power lines in the strong winds spark the start or what would become one of the most destructive wildfires in TX history the Bastrop Lost Pines Fire. Other fires erupt across central TX around Austin and in Colorado County burning hundreds of homes on the 4-5. The Bastrop Fire burned over 14,000 acres in just a few hours on the 4th. The fire was declared 100% contained on October 10, 2011 burning 1645 homes and over 34,000 acres. Insured losses for the Bastrop County fire is estimated at 150 million dollars

September 5, 2011

Additional wildfires develop over SE TX including the start of the Grimes/Montgomery counties fire (Riley Rd Fire) late in the afternoon. This fire would burn over 18,000 acres and some 86 homes while forcing the evacuation of over 5000 residents. By the end of the day on the 5th, 20 major fires were burning across the state. Over 2000 homes were lost. Insured losses for the Labor Day weekend wildfires is estimated at 250 million dollars.

September 13, 2011

Grass fire in George Bush Park burns 1500 acres. The high temperature of 102 is the highest temperature ever recorded so late in the summer season.

September 27, 2011

Rare dry lightening across central and SE TX spark additional wildfires during the afternoon and evening.

September 2011

PDSI falls to its lowest value ever for the state of Texas at the end of September. The value of -7.97 exceeded the 1956 value of -7.80 indicating the incredible severity of the drought.

October 9, 2011

Widespread excessive rainfall of 2-6 inches falls over Harris County during the afternoon as a result of a slow moving line of thunderstorms. A combination of high moisture levels and cell training over SE Harris County led to afternoon totals of 4-6 inches over Pasadena and South Houston. Locations in Pasadena received 40% of their 2011 year to date rainfall on the 9th.

Location

Rainfall: 1-1-11 to 10-8-11

Rainfall 10-9-11

New Yearly Total

% 2011 Yearly Total on 10-9

940: Lt Vince Bayou at Jackson

9.24

6.92

16.16

43%

920: Vince Bayou at W Ellaine

10.52

6.88

17.40

40%

320: Berry Bayou at Forest Oaks

11.44

6.36

17.80

36%

310: Berry Bayou at Nevada

11.56

5.84

17.40

34%

240: Armand Bayou at Beltway 8

9.52

5.00

14.52

34%

610: Taylor Bayou at Shoreacres

12.16

5.80

17.96

32%

620: Lt Cedar Bayou at 8th St

12.0

5.64

17.64

32%

640: HCFCD F101 at Sens Rd

10.8

4.52

15.32

30%

230: Big Island at Fairmont

13.0

4.28

17.28

25%

270: Willow/Springs at Fairmont

11.72

4.64

16.36

28%

125: Chigger Creek at Windsong

11.32

4.88

16.20

30%

1070: Spring Creek at SH 249

10.84

3.20

14.04

23%

550: White Oak at Lakeview

11.32

4.44

15.76

28%

2210: Buffalo at Turning Basin

13.0

5.68

18.68

30%

October 9, 2011

EF1 tornado strikes San Antonio, TX with winds of 90-100mph. The damage path was 2 miles long and 50 yards wide and resulted in damage to trees, vehicles, and roofs.

November 8, 2011:

EF0 tornado impacts the Kingwood area with downed trees and power lines, blown over fences, and roof damage.

December 23-26, 2011

A rare treat for portions of western TX….a white Christmas! A slow moving upper level low produced period of slow from the 23rd to the 26th in area around Lubbock. Accumulations ranged from a dusting to nearly a foot just northwest of Lubbock.