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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

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From FWD NWS: :weenie: alert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

940 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011

.UPDATE...

SOME INTERESTING CHANGES ARE TAKING PLACE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH

COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS ON NORTH TEXAS WEATHER OVER THE CHRISTMAS

WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW WHICH MOVED THROUGH COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY

AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS DEEPENED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO

TONIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR

WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND EVEN THE GUADALUPE

MOUNTAINS. THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE LOW IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH

THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS HAD IT. THE 00Z NAM HAS JUST

ARRIVED AND SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE BETTER BUT MAYBE

ALSO A BIT NORTH. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR NORTH

TEXAS WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE

NAM IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR

PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC

SECTIONS REVEAL IMPRESSIVE MOIST ASCENT...ESPECIALLY LATE

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE PROGGED TO

BE ON THE WARM SIDE...THE NAM MAY BE ENTIRELY TOO WARM...

ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY EARLY IN THE EVENT AND

EVAPORATIVE COOLING CAN KICK IN. FOR NOW WILL MAKE SOME

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE EVENT AND START PRECIP A BIT

LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. WILL

ALSO ADD THE MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY

MORNING FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL ALLOW THE

NEXT SHIFT TO LOOK AT ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY

MAJOR CHANGES.

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Srain

Srain

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The 12Z WRF/NMM suggests a close call for the Metroplex regarding any wintry mischief chances. Further W in Midland/Odessa and San Angelo things do look a bit different with some accumulation possible. That model also suggests a coastal low/trough S of Galveston late Christmas Eve into Christmas morning with over running precip.

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Roy

Roy

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NAM backed off and then has increased QPF again to near where it was yesterday, though slightly north. Will be interesting. Unfortunately, we are leaving today, so if we do get a dumping, I will miss it to the east. We received 3.5 inches a couple weeks ago though, so I won't complain! That's half our yearly snowfall total, so not bad so far. The official station got only 2.5 I think, but we had more at my house.

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Srain

Srain

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FWD has updated and the GFS got a clue. It appears the slower progression of the H5 low is on tap and the Canadian is suggesting some nice totals...

FWD:

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY LATE

TOMORROW AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH

TEXAS. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM IN

THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48

HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND

LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH THE

EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATING SNOW...RIGHT NOW

THE BEST POSSIBILITY EXISTS WEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH

METROPLEX WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. AT THIS TIME IT

STILL LOOKS LIKE OVERALL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO OUR WEST SHOULD

REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE

EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPMENTS UPSTREAM AS

THE FEATURE APPROACHES TOMORROW AND SUNDAY FOR ANY POSSIBLE

CHANGES.

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Srain

Srain

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Afternoon e-mail form Jeff:

Wet and cold holiday weekend in store for the region. For this year, unlike in 2004, SE TX will see no snow this Christmas, but it will feel very much like winter!

Upper level storm system dropping southward toward N MX this afternoon with downstream coastal trough starting to develop over the lower TX coast. While at the surface, cold air is filtering southward across the state creating a favorable pattern for a white Christmas over W TX and widespread rains over the rest of the state.

Clouds will thicken and lower tonight into early Saturday with best forcing from the developing coastal low coming to bear across the region Saturday PM/evening into Sunday morning. Expect widespread light rain and drizzle to develop late Saturday morning and become more frequent and heavy by Saturday evening. Heavy rainfall will be possible along with a few elevated thunderstorms especially south of US 59. Strong sub-tropical jet axis over the coastal region will support some decent rainfall amounts. Slower system is favored for the ejection of the upper trough out of MX and this will keep at least some rain chances going into Sunday AM until about the noonish hour. After that rains should be ending from SW to NE, but clouds will linger in Monday or until the upper storm shears across TX. Rainfall amounts look to average .5-1.0 inch through the weekend with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible especially near the coast.

Due to the clouds and rainfall and gusty NE winds on the north side of the NW Gulf surface low feature, temperatures will be cold all day Saturday with highs likely in the 40’s making for a raw day. Sunday will feature lows in the upper 30’s and highs near 50. Temperatures will slowly warm into next week as a more zonal and less amplified upper air pattern develops over North America and a more typical La Nina result begins to surface.

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Srain

Srain

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Special Weather Statements are out for EWX, SJT and FWD. The 18Z NAM raised some eyebrows and each consectutive run today has been 'colder, slower and stronger' with the H5 low and its evential ejection from the El Paso area.

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Srain

Srain

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Some major changes via the overnight guidance concerning the long Holiday Weekend. The upper low currently spinning near El Paso is expect to crawl E and meander throughout the weekend. A surface low should form along the Lower Texas Coast and slowly travel NE bringing over running rains to the tune of. 3/4 to 1.5 inches, with isolated totals of 2-3 inches possible mainly closer to the coast. This wet pattern should linger into Monday with temps struggling to move much above where they are now, in the upper 40's to low 50's, for today.

Rain chances increase overnight as the U/L very slowly moves into W TX and the coastal low/trough slowly moves toward the Middle Texas Coast. By Christmas morning the coastal low should still be SW of the area with abundant lift and over running rain chances throughout the day. The upper low and coastal disturbance should be moving E of the area by mid day Monday. This appears to be the end of the Western Cut Off low scenario that has plagued us since Thanksgiving and a more typical La Nina pattern should return with dry conditions as we end the year 2011.

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Srain

Srain

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The 12Z WRF/NMM is in and that model suggests a rather interesting solution for Late Christmas evening into Monday. The fly in the ointment via guidance is just how fast and where does the upper low SW of El Paso begin its slow trek ENE. WV imagery is showing a secondary upper air/short wave diving S along the S CA Coast this morning near San Diego. The short wave energy should be the kicker that will provide for the upper low in Old Mexico to begin to slowly crawl E. The WRF/NMM is sniffing out these features and suggests a cold pocket (850/700mb) with instability just N and W of Houston and SE TX on Monday as the precip begins to end. We'll watch the trends and see what transpires, but it is interesting to note none the less....

sat_wv_west_loop-12.gif

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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The 12Z WRF/NMM is in and that model suggests a rather interesting solution for Late Christmas evening into Monday. The fly in the ointment via guidance is just how fast and where does the upper low SW of El Paso begin its slow trek ENE. WV imagery is showing a secondary upper air/short wave diving S along the S CA Coast this morning near, The short wave energy should be the kicker that will provide for the upper low in Old Mexico to begin to slowly crawl E. The WRF/NMM is sniffing out these features and suggests a cold pocket (850/700mb) with instability just N and W of Houston and SE TX on Monday as the precip begins to end. We'll watch the trends and see what transpires, but it is interesting to note none the less....

It is interesting that the NAM has been leading the way with this system from almost the time it got within range (not necessarily always accurate but it was the 1st to sniff out certain trends and then stick with them) . The NAMs reputation probably caused more than a few offices to end up pulling their hair out as they called for "tossing" the NAM from guidance in one update only to have to come back later and say that they were leaning towards the NAM. I even saw updates calling for tossing the EURO b/c it was too close to being in agreement with the NAM at times.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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It is interesting that the NAM has been leading the way with this system from almost the time it got within range (not necessarily always accurate but it was the 1st to sniff out certain trends and then stick with them) . The NAMs reputation probably caused more than a few offices to end up pulling their hair out as they called for "tossing" the NAM from guidance in one update only to have to come back later and say that they were leaning towards the NAM. I even saw updates calling for tossing the EURO b/c it was too close to being in agreement with the NAM at times.

Yup. NAM was closest on the West Texas Snow Miracle.

post-138-0-61417800-1324742103.gif

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Srain

Srain

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The 12Z Canadian paints a similar picture as the NAM and GFS suggesting a damp (perhaps wintry further N and W) and dreary Holiday Weekend across the eastern half of the Lone Star State. The upper low appears to trek slowly E via that guidance in a somewhat fashion the GFS solution offered through Monday.

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post-32-0-95798400-1324745839.jpg

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Srain

Srain

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The 12Z Euro suggests the upper low stalls briefly (6-12 hours) near Lubbock before ejecting E along the Red River Valley. That model solution would end precip Monday morning and take the upper low to N Mississippi by Tuesday morning.

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Srain

Srain

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Afternoon update from HGX suggesting rains will taper a bit tomorrow as the Coastal Low near Corpus passes to our S and heads E. The Upper Low will likely produce heavier rains Christmas Night into Monday morning as that system finally passes just to our N on Monday. The 18Z WRF/NMM is suggesting some instability as the Upper Low approaches, so some rumbles of thunder may be possible with the heavier showers. It appears clearing skies will finally return late Monday night into Tuesday as the U/L heads NE.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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SXUS74 KMAF 242225

RERMAF

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

0423 PM CST SAT DEC 24 2011

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT MIDLAND...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 4.1 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT MIDLAND TODAY.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.3 SET IN 1975.

$$

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Roy

Roy

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Nice snow in Midland, though am not there of course...lol. Some of the pictures on local news websites frankly appear close to 5 or even a few isolated 6 inches in spots. That is pretty darn impressive for the part of West Texas that is south of Lubbock. Had some flurries here in Abilene earlier, but nothing stuck.

This low is frankly bizarre, especially if the models are right that it will loop around the panhandle.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

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It is nice to see the improvements in the drought status across portions of the south the last two months with this pattern favoring southern stream ejecting anomalies.

October 4th:

post-999-0-07024800-1324771105.jpg

December 20th:

post-999-0-31883900-1324771110.jpg

Thank god. I was shuddering thinking about going through typical nina climo this winter.....and then this summer and fall.....The drought could have been much worse.

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