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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Srain

Srain

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It looks like guidance did fairly well after all the hand wringing by a few and showers/storms are heading toward the coast this morning. The good news is nothing severe occurred. The next chance of beneficial rains starts Wednesday night into Thursday. Some rather interesting developments over night via guidance as well. The Euro now shows a much stronger cut off low over Mexico near Monterrey and the GFS has flipped drier. Most guidance suggests much chillier air settling across the Lone Star State with a modified Arctic/Canadian front. Over running precip is possible during the Christmas Holiday Weekend with cold air at the surface. Once again caution is advised with the models flip flopping from run to run as an active pattern continues with multiple short wave impulses riding along the various jet stream flow.

Dallas/Ft Worth for Friday:

ANOTHER STRONG POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY THAT ANCHORS THE BASE

OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS AGREE ON THE

POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT DIVERGE REGARDING THE

AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE STRONG

ENOUGH IN THE MID LEVELS...THAT IF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...THERE

WOULD BE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW THE NAM...GFS AND GEM ARE

INDICATING MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE WESTERN CWA...WITH ALL THE

SREF MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF DRY. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BE COLD

ENOUGH FOR SNOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE NW ZONES. WE THINK THAT

PARTS OF THE AREA WILL CONTEND WITH SPRINKLES OR SNOW FLURRIES ON

FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOT QUITE READY TO MENTION ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP.

SINCE THE EVENT LOOKS PRETTY MINOR AS FAR AS IMPACTS GO...WOULD

PREFER TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OUT OF THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE OR TWO TO SEE

WHAT DIRECTION THE CONSENSUS TRENDS TOWARD.

REGARDLESS OF PRECIP POTENTIAL FRIDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN IS

FAVORABLE FOR TRANSPORTING COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL

LIKELY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY

WEEKEND. MEX MOS LOOKS ABSURDLY WARM AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE

FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. MODEL GUIDANCE

DIVERGES SUNDAY...AS THEY DO NOT KNOW HOW TO RESOLVE THE FINAL

VORT LOBE ROTATING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. SOME SOLUTIONS

KEEP AN UPPER LOW CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND OTHERS CLEAR

THE ENTIRE TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE

FORECAST SUNDAY AND NOT BITE ON THE TOTAL CLEARING ADVERTISED BY

THE GFS.

San Angelo:

THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC

PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD AND HAVE MOISTENED THE LOW/MID LEVELS

SUFFICIENTLY TO CONCERN ME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WINTER

PRECIP. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE DRIER OUTLIER AT THIS POINT BUT THERE

IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL THERE FOR ME TO ADD MENTIONABLE POPS TO THE

BIG COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF

WHICH WILL DIVE QUICKLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE

ROCKIES AND TURNING THE CORNER TO THE EAST OVER NEW MEXICO. MODEST

FRONTOGENESIS IN THE H85-H7 LAYER WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION

THROUGH WHAT IS DEPICTED AS A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.

BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW FOR ALL AREAS WITH NO

WARM LAYER PRESENT IN THE MODELS. AT THIS TIME...PRECIP IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT /LESS THAN 1 INCH/. THERE IS PLENTY OF

OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS OR EVEN REMOVE THEM IF

CONDITIONS CHANGE.

Midland/Odessa:

MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING DIFFICULTY THIS WINTER SEASON WITH THE

STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOWS THIS YEAR AND AGAIN THERE IS

MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW. THE CANADIAN IS SLOWEST AND

STRONGEST AND THE ECMWF IS THE WEAKEST AND FASTEST...AND GIVEN THE

AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IT SEEMS SLOWER AND

DEEPER IS THE BETTER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. A STRONGER LOW WILL

BE ABLE TO PROVIDE THE MOISTURE AND LIFT NEEDED FOR PRECIPITATION

FORMATION. HAVE UPPED POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR THE

NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS. THE BEST

CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER IN EDDY COUNTY

WHERE DYNAMICS...OROGRAPHICS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE ALL

MAXIMIZED. THE PRECIP SPREADS EAST ON FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES

SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THERE TO BE ALL SNOW. THE CANADIAN MODEL

SPREADS PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN ITS DEEPER SOLUTION AND THIS

MAY WELL PROVE CORRECT SO AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 MAY NEED INCREASED

POPS DURING FUTURE SHIFTS. THE WEEKEND WILL BE COLD THOUGH THE

UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY WITH MORE ZONAL CONDITIONS

EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

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Srain

Srain

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Decent coverage of rainfall this morning over mainly the northern and central parts of SE TX and most recently right along the coast from Freeport to Galveston.

Cold front currently along US 59 will push toward the coast over the next few hours with rains ending from north to south. In the last 24 hours rainfall amounts have averaged .5 to .75 of an inch across the region with the most rainfall in two corridors: 1. From northern Waller County across NW Montgomery County into Walker County with 1-2 inches and the other from Downtown Houston to Kingwood into Liberty County with 1-2 inches. A third region is still getting heavy rainfall from SE Matagorda County to the west side of Galveston Island.

Cold front will progress off the coast by noon with drier and cooler air mass moving into the area and skies clearing from the WNW to ESE. Satellite already shows high level moisture ahead of the next digging trough moving in W and C TX this morning. Next potent trough is digging southward off the Baja coast this morning with a good sub-tropical tap noted over Mexico aimed at Texas. Given the look of the features on the water vapor and first few visible frames this morning…clearing this afternoon may be short lived.

Next SW US system will eject eastward across N MX Wednesday and into TX Thursday. Downstream forcing will foster NW Gulf of Mexico coastal surface low formation on the frontal boundary moving through today by Wednesday afternoon. Strong isentropic upglide will begin in earnest by Wednesday afternoon with cloud layer rapidly thickening and lowering as Gulf moisture is advected over the top of the cold dome at the surface. Combination of the developing surface trough/low over the Gulf waters and incoming strong sub-tropical jet core will result in widespread lift across the region Wed PM into Thurs AM with widespread rains likely. Models have come into good agreement and increased QPF for this period and HPC progs are showing upwards of a 1-2 inch widespread rain across SE TX during this period. Will taper back these amounts into the .5 to 1.0 inch range as previous overrunning events have not pan out as expected, but with that said this does look like another decent and widespread soaking for the area to help put more dents in the still exceptional drought. Both the NAM and GFS show highs in the lower 60’s on Wed, but potential for rapid increase in clouds could result in highs only in the mid 50’s.

Storm system moves on eastward on Thursday by midday with clearing skies by afternoon. How quickly skies clear will likely determine how much of a warm up will be in store for Thursday afternoon. Guidance is showing the mid 60’s, but is clouds linger longer than expected, highs will be held once again in the 50’s.

Models are still not in overall very good agreement for the holiday weekend. One aspect does appear certain, that colder conditions will be felt across the state as Canadian air mass is transported southward. This air mass may end up being slightly colder than what would normally be expected for a fairly mild western Canada source region due in large part to the recent/ongoing blizzard over the western high plains and TX/OK panhandles which will help slow the air mass modification on its trip southward. Bigger question remains how much energy drops into the semi-permanent large scale trough over the SW US and does another upper level storm close off and where. GFS is the most progressive and driest of the models while the CMC is the strongest and deepest. The ECMWF is even stronger than the CMC, but keeps the upper storm buried deep in central MX too far S and W to impact the weather over the holiday weekend which seems a little on the extreme side. Will take a blend of the GFS and CMC with clouds increasing late Friday into Saturday and possibly light rain developing Saturday afternoon mainly near the coast and offshore as western energy forms another coastal trough. Models continue to have a hard time forecasting in this highly progressive spilt flow jet stream pattern, but we should begin to see some better consensus in the next few days for this weekend. For now will go with cool and cloudy conditions with a slight chance of rain.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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The new Euro suggests wintry mischief may not be out of the question on Christmas Eve for some across the Lone Star State...

Verbatim, Abilene gets 4 or 5 inches, with the ground temp just below freezing. Ever driven through Abilene? They need a Christmas Eve snow miracle.

DFW is close but ground above freezing. AUS not as close.

But almost a week out, surface temps a couple degrees colder, the world is a happy place.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

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From the NWS Ft Worth/Dallas Discussion. Wish we were a day or two closer......

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

344 PM CST TUE DEC 20 2011

.DISCUSSION...

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER

WESTERN CANADA DROPS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON THE BACKSIDE

OF OUR MID-WEEK TROUGH. ALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD

OF THIS TROUGH...BRINGING COLD AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LIFT.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH THE OVERALL HANDLING OF THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT

OF THE SHORTWAVE. WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE

DEPENDENT ON WHAT OCCURS WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK

AFTER IT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS DIVES

THIS TROUGH SOUTH AND PICKS IT UP IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE

JET STREAM. THIS WOULD CAUSE OUR TROUGH NEAR NORTH TEXAS TO BEGIN

TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN OUT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING WEAK LIFT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LOW.

THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEP THE UPSTREAM TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN

BRANCH...MOVING IT EAST ACROSS CANADA. THIS WOULD ENABLE OUR

SOUTHERN TROUGH NEAR NORTH TEXAS TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT TROUGH

BRINGING MUCH STRONGER LIFT AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO THE

CWA BEGINNING FRIDAY AND PERHAPS LASTING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE ECMWF

DID A COMPLETE 180 DEGREE TURN FROM ITS 00Z SOLUTION AND HANGS THE

TROUGH BACK ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THEN TRACKS THE LOW OVER THE

CWA...PUTTING NORTH TEXAS IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SNOW ACROSS

MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE

TROUGH...BUT WOULD STILL BE A DECENT SETUP FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS

THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE CANADIAN HANGS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST LONGER THAN THE ECMWF

AND MOST OF OUR MOISTURE WOULD BE SCOURED OUT BEHIND THE COLD

FRONT BY THEN AND WE WOULDNT SEE MUCH PRECIP.

AS YOU CAN TELL FROM EVERYTHING DESCRIBED ABOVE...THERE ARE ALOT

OF VARIABLES THAT HAVE TO BE DETERMINED BEFORE WE CAN HAVE

CONFIDENCE IN A SNOW FORECAST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IF IT WERE TO

SNOW...LOW MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATIONS...BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...UNLESS MESOSCALE BANDING

WERE TO OCCUR. GIVEN THAT THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN TO REALLY

JUMP ON BOARD...FELT IT WAS BEST TO ONLY INTRODUCE 20 POPS INTO

THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY

NIGHT WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO FALL NO MATTER WHAT

SOLUTION OCCURS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THIS AREA WILL BE IN THE

MIDDLE 30S AND WENT WITH A RAIN OR SNOW WEATHER TYPE. FRIDAY

NIGHT...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW FREEZING AND WENT WITH

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. AGAIN...THIS IS AN EVER- EVOLVING

FORECAST AND THINGS CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.

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Srain

Srain

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The chatter this afternoon is one of caution regarding the Friday-Saturday from the NWS offices across Texas. The general idea is areas along and N of I-20 could see light snow from W to E. The only WFO that is rather gung ho is Midland/Odessa at this time. They have issued a Special Weather Statement and mention the possibilities of Watches tomorrow or Thursday. We'll need a few more runs of the operational guidance to have any real idea how this will evolve. The immediate concern is rain chances for late Wednesday into Thursday across SE TX. The Christmas Holiday Weekend period will be lined out in a day or two.

Edit to add the 12Z Euro Ensmbles

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Srain

Srain

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Today will transition from high clouds to thickening skies and rain chances increase by late afternoon. The 06Z NAM suggests heavy rainfall is possible and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder. That model has trended a bit further S and W with heavier rains possible for all the Houston Metro Area. Further NW near College Station, totals of 1/4 to maybe 1/2 inch can be expected. Areas near Houston and NE, 1/2 to I inch amounts look likely with possible 1 1/2 to 2 inch amounts in some isolated locations, mainly NE of the City. A cold front will sweep S late on Thursday setting the stage for a cool Christmas Holiday Weekend. An upper air disturbance will dive S into New Mexico and that area is under a Winter Storm Watch. At this time it appears that over running clouds with very dry mid levels will prevent any precip to fall in the Friday/Saturday time frame. If the progression of the upper level trough were 12 to 16 hours slower, chilly light rains/drizzle could form with possible snow flurries possible further N along I-20 corridor. Skies may clear for Sunday, Christmas Day, but further updates and future guidance output may keep us in the clouds a bit longer as some additional upper level energy remains to our S and W. For those looking for white Christmas, New Mexico and perhaps far W Texas will be the place to be.

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Srain

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0708 AM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF SE TX AND

SRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD...WITH MEAN TROUGH OVER

THE RCKYS/HI PLNS AND BROAD RIDGE OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. IN THE

CONFLUENT WSW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH...UPR LOW NOW OVER IL SHOULD

FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ENE TO THE LWR GRT LKS. AT THE SAME

TIME...NW MEXICO UPR LOW ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES ENE

INTO TX AHEAD OF NEXT IMPULSE DROPPING S INTO THE GRT BASIN.

TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SVR...MAY OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION

WITH BOTH THE UPR SYSTEM CROSSING THE OH VLY...AND WITH THE

DISTURBANCE EMERGING FROM MEXICO.

...FL PANHANDLE INTO ERN AL AND WRN/SRN GA TODAY...

LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST OVER THE

WRN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SE AL/SW GA

TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN

CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW ON WRN FRINGE OF W ATLANTIC RIDGE.

INCREASINGLY LOW LCLS AND LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY YIELD A

WATERSPOUT OR TWO ALONG THE FL CST. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ALSO MAY

OCCUR NEWD INTO PARTS OF AL AND GA. BUT GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS

AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF MEAN FLOW SHOULD OFFSET SLIGHT DIURNAL

INCREASE IN LOW LVL BUOYANCY TO PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD OR SUSTAINED

SVR THREAT.

...SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS TODAY...

AS IL UPR LOW CONTINUES ENEWD TODAY...A BAND OF 70-80 KT WSWLY 500

MB FLOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS TO THE CNTRL/SRN

APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A NARROW MOIST AXIS

WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F WILL SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE WRN

SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE IL TROUGH...AND LOW LVL UPLIFT

ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN EXISTING BAND

OF SCTD FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL STORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM WRN OH TO

CNTRL AL AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD. A NEW BAND OF LOW-TOPPED

CONVECTION/STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT

IN ERN OH/WRN PA.

BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS BOTH MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND SFC

HEATING REMAIN WEAK. BUT PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND FIELD WITH

EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY WILL POSE A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT FOR

ISOLD DMGG WIND. THIS THREAT MAY BE GREATEST BENEATH CORE OF

STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW...I.E. OVER ERN KY...SRN/ERN OH...WV...WRN

MD...AND PERHAPS WRN PA THROUGH THE AFTN. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD

DIMINISH BY EVE AS UPR SYSTEM FURTHER DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES BEYOND

LOW LVL MOIST AXIS.

...SE TX/SW LA EARLY THU...

APPROACH OF NW MEXICAN UPR TROUGH WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN LOW TO

MID LVL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER E TX...THE LWR MS VLY...AND THE NWRN

GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU. AS A RESULT...SWRN

PART OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND SUBSEQUENTLY REFORM

NWWD TO NEAR THE UPR GULF CST OF TX AND SW/S CNTRL LA BY 12Z THU.

INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW ATOP FRONT AND STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE

ASCENT/WAA AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A

WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS TNGT AND ...ESPECIALLY...EARLY

THU...FROM S CNTRL THROUGH E TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP

E INTO PARTS OF LA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK EXCEPT NEAR SFC FRONT NEAR THE UPR TX GULF

CST AND IN LA...WHERE SBCAPE MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 60+

KT SWLY 0-6 KM SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING SSELY LOW LVL WINDS...SETUP

MAY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE SSW-NNE SQLN ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF

CONVECTION/STORMS. THE SQLN COULD CONTAIN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS

WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES/STRONG WINDS FROM NEAR

HOUSTON ENE INTO S CNTRL LA. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST AFTER

09Z THU AND LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY /SEE

SWODY2/.

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Srain

Srain

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Highly active weather pattern will bring our next storm system into the area tonight and Thursday with more widespread soaking rainfall.

Water vapor images this morning shows the next upper level storm digging across northern MX and heading for SW TX. Mid and high level moisture is being tapped from the Pacific on the southern side of this feature and then spreading ENE/NE across much of TX. At the surface high pressure is starting to move eastward and this will combine with lowering pressures over the NW Gulf later today along the old frontal boundary to help return moisture rapidly across the area. Impressive isentropic lift comes to bear over the region after dark tonight as southerly winds overrun the surface cool pool in place. Clouds will rapidly thicken and lower this afternoon with rain starting to break out along the Rio Grande by late afternoon and spreading ENE across all of SC/SE and the coastal bend of TX overnight. Strong sub-tropical jet core aloft of 100-120kts will help promote strong lift in favorable region of the jet especially over the western and northern sections of SE TX. Modest instability will also develop above the surface cool dome with elevated thunderstorms possible especially toward daybreak Thursday as colder mid level temperatures advect into the region with the upper trough.

Will focus the heaviest rainfall along and just north of a line from Columbus to The Woodlands to Livingston where models are in very good agreement that sustained activity will develop. Entire area will see from .5-1.5 inches with the above mentioned corridor possibly seeing 1-2 inches. With grounds somewhat moist from recent rainfall, rains of this magnitude may actually generate some decent run-off into area watersheds resulting in some recovery of poor lake conditions.

Quick moving system should be east of the area by late Thursday with rain ending around noon and skies clearing by late afternoon. Cold front will surge into the area late Thursday/early Friday off the fresh snow pack over the western high plains bring polar air into TX for the holiday weekend. Continued split flow upper air pattern with southern stream SW US troughs ejecting into the southern plains reloads and repeats for this weekend, only with much colder air in place across TX. Clouds will be on the increase by late Friday as the next upper level storm moves into MX and starts to head eastward. Models have trended toward a drier solution for the weekend, but not sure this is in fact what is going to happen. Feel it is best to leave cloudy and cold conditions in place for Saturday with a threat of light rain especially south of I-10. Sunday may end up being cloudy and cold also if the trough hangs back to the west continuing the overrunning pattern. Temperature profiles for the weekend suggest all liquid over SE TX, but profiles are supportive of snow over portions of W/NW/N TX in the Friday-Sunday time frame…and some locations in this region of the state may see light snow and some accumulations over the holiday weekend. At this time where any accumulations will be confined to is difficult to determine, but meager moisture suggest what falls in these parts of the state would likely be on the light side.

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Srain

Srain

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The 09Z SREF does tend to raise an eyebrow concerning wintry mischief across New Mexico, Northern Mexico, West/N Central/Panhandle regions of Texas. This is a bit too far out for my tastes, but the trend is worth noting...

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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The 12Z NAM/WRF is certainly suggesting a much better setup/moisture of possible wintry mischief for portions of TX in the longer range of that model...fwiw... :popcorn:

Well, it is the NAM approaching 84 hours, but a White Christmas seems to be the forecast for those lonely cities out West. Midland and Lubbock look mostly snow, and the total precip accumulation would seem to suggest ~6 inches for our friends in Tech land.

Departing moisture and 850 mb freeze line seem to be in a race to reach DFW, to see if they can see flakes on Christmas Eve...

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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Well, it is the NAM approaching 84 hours, but a White Christmas seems to be the forecast for those lonely cities out West. Midland and Lubbock look mostly snow, and the total precip accumulation would seem to suggest ~6 inches for our friends in Tech land.

Departing moisture and 850 mb freeze line seem to be in a race to reach DFW, to see if they can see flakes on Christmas Eve...

And I thought I was the only one watching the NAM this morning! Some nice changes with it slowing the system down and digging it more into the SW allowing for better moisture return over parts of Texas. However, it still looks borderline at best for DFW. So colder with less moisture or warmer with more... Bring on

the GFS and EURO!

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Srain

Srain

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The 12Z GFS has come in a bit more enthusiastic regarding precip chances across Central/SE TX for Saturday (Christmas Eve). The upper trough is a touch slower and a coastal trough is a bit stronger suggesting over running conditions and a bit better lift along Coastal and Central Texas. That model has joined the over night Euro suggesting clouds will linger into Christmas Day as an upper air disturbance stalls across Old Mexico.

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Srain

Srain

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The 12Z Canadian suggests clouds and a bit better lift near Coastal Texas for Christmas Eve. Although moisture is meager further N, that model also has joined the Euro/GFS solution lingering some upper level energy back in Old Mexico during the long Holiday Weekend.

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