Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Ed Lizard]

0Z GFS does cool Texas down to seasonal and below after the truncation.

[#NoPoles]

hey Jorge, are you above average in the precip department this year with the southern storm track or are you normal?

[wxmx]

hey Jorge, are you above average in the precip department this year with the southern storm track or are you normal?

About 8-9" below normal. I have had probably only around 15 days this year of measurable precipitation. Most of it from 3-4 events. I average around 24" per year. Being this far south, most precipitation is the result from the tropics...baroclinic stuff is mostly light rain and drizzle.

[Srain]

Foggy conditions and warm temps are on tap for the day. Showers and a few heavy storms are possible during the overnight hours as a Pacific cold front slowly sags S through the area tomorrow. The SPC has removed the Slight Risk for severe storms across the Central Texas Region for today. Storms should not be severe in our area, but I wouldn't rule out a couple of gusty storms with heavy rainfall during the overnight hours. Over running conditions should set up as the front stalls near the coast. We'll need to monitor just how far the front pushes S and there could be some big temp differences from S to N across the area if the front does not push off the coast. Rain chances look to continue into Saturday as embedded short wave energy rides along the southern jet. Another upper air disturbance will drop S to our W into S CA/Baja and keep us under a SW flow aloft. Foggy conditions appear likely for Sunday into Monday before rain chances again increase as that upper low ejects N and E. Once again heavy rainfall and some storms chance may enter the picture as another front heads S late on Monday into Tuesday. The pattern will wash, rinse and repeat next week with yet another upper air disturbance dropping into the SW. The active pattern looks to continue on through the Christmas Holiday period.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail just received from Jeff:

Increasing chances for more needed rainfall over the next several days!

Current issue remains the very dense sea fog bank that has formed over the upper TX coastal waters. Warm moist air flowing over the chilled near shore waters has produced an extensive bank of sea fog along much of the LA coast into SE TX. SW edge of this fog is along a line from roughly Galveston to South Houston to near Tomball and eastward with visibilities running .25 of a mile or less along the coast and in the bay. Low level winds are expected to turn more SE to S today and this may help reduce the fetch of chilling time and saturation of the moist marine air over the colder waters and help break up the fog bank. Not overly convinced this will happen, and even if the extensive bank breaks up, expect smaller pockets of very dense fog to continue into Thursday.

Next front and storm system will move into the area late tonight-Friday morning as this highly active weather pattern continues. Very slow moving frontal boundary will arrive into our northern counties by sunrise on Thursday and very slowly cross the area during the day…taking all day if not into the evening to move to the coast. Moisture will pool along and behind the front and expect widespread showers and some thunderstorms spreading from north to south across the region on Thursday. Greatest rain chances may actually come in the colder air north of the front and ahead of the 850mb front where best lift will be found and think Thursday night into Friday morning will feature the highest chances as the next short wave in the SW US moves into the plains adding additional dynamics across the area. A few strong storms will be possible, but the severe threat looks low at this time. Rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.5 inches will be common over the region.

Active SW flow aloft will continue post front and upglide pattern of warm moist air atop the dense cold surface air will commence by later Friday. Isentropic lifting may be enough to continue to generate light rain Friday night and Saturday in the cold air. Will hold temperatures in the 50’s all day Saturday as clouds, drizzle and light rain stunt any warming trend. Overall looks to be shaping up for another cold and dreary weekend and rain chances may need to be raised even more toward the 50-60% range per latest GFS MOS guidance.

Models move the front back northward Sunday as a warm front, but they tend to mix warm front too fast northward especially if clouds and light rain is falling north of the boundary. This is in response to yet another upper level trough digging into the SW US. Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky with areas south of the warm front warming into the 70’s and areas north of the boundary holding in the 50’s. This storm system will eject eastward into the plains on Monday and with it a rapidly moving Pacific cold front. Favorable moisture and dynamics appear in place to produce a round of fast moving thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. Depending on where the warm front ends up Sunday night we could see another…but shorter…period of dense sea fog near the coast late Sunday.

Clearing and colder Monday evening through next Wednesday as the upper level flow turns more zonal (WNW) instead of the moist SW upper flow of late. However the upper pattern continues to look progressive and active on the long range charts with additional storms system possible toward the end of next week around Christmas.

[Ed Lizard]

Low status now from the South, and still a few wet spots in the parking garage, the sprinkles overnight at my house must have fallen here as well.

This time yesterday the Williams Tower is obscured.

The seafog/warm Gulf air over cool shelf waters is the bane of my wanting local severe existence March into May.

[Srain]

This is still a ways out, but the 12Z GFS is beginning to latch on the idea the Euro suggested a couple of day ago regarding a storm track a bit further S with the Monday event. It will be interesting to monitor this storm system as it has a bit better potential to bring a variety of weather across New Mexico/Texas Sunday into Monday night.

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS Ensembles also suggest a combination of potential wintry mischief and rains further S across New Mexico &Texas early next week...

[Srain]

There is a bit better agreement with the 00Z operational suite regarding Sunday- Tuesday . The Euro has been trending away from the drier, open trough solution as well as being a bit too progressive with the ejection of the upper low near the Baja. It has joined the GFS suggesting a fully closed, more potent storm as well as slower moving allowing the Northern stream storm system and attending cold front to proggress further S into the Central/Southern Plains. The solution of a slower moving system seems to fit the zonal flow we are witnessing at this current time. As the SW upper low (5H) slowly treks E, the stage appears to be set for a fairly significant Winter Storm for New Mexico, W. Texas and the Panhandle as well as Oklahoma. There is even some indications of possible wintry mischief for parts of N Texas as the cold core, fully wrapped up low passes with some wrap around precip. That said, there still remains some questions regarding the trach of the upper low. The GFS provides a further S across TX while the Euro/Canadian modes suggest a bit furthe N across the Panhandle into Oklahoma. For locations further S, heavy rains appear to be possible in drought parched Central and East Texas. There is a chance that a signiicant squall line may form and sweep S and E as the upper low passes to our N.

Today will offer changeable weather for SE Texas as a Pacific front slowly sags S and E. Rqin chances should increase as the day goes on, but better chances will follow behind the front as over running conditions become establishee through Saturday. Sunday appears to the calmer day in the forecast ahead as the frontal boundary retreats N as the SW low begins its journey across Northern Mexico.

This is still a rather volatile forecast period and further fine tuning can be expected.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Cloudy and wet period on tap for the region through the weekend.

Sea fog has spread back inland along the coast this morning from the TX/LA state line to Matagorda Bay as a humid Gulf air mass continues to ride over the cold near shore waters chilling the air to saturation. At 600am visibilities ranged from ¼ to ½ of a mile at most reporting sites south of US 59. With much weaker winds in place today, expect dense sea fog to hang tough along the coast and in the bays through much of the day and into this evening prior to the arrival of the next front tonight.

Pre frontal trough currently knocking on the door of our northwest counties this morning or along a line from near Texarkana to Temple to NW of Del Rio with actual front northwest of that boundary over NW TX. Front will overtake the pre frontal trough today and very slowly move across the area. It appears that the boundary will take at least the next 18-24 hours to move to the coast…and will finally crawl offshore early Friday morning near sunrise. Expect a few streamer type showers today ahead of the boundary, but the bulk of the rainfall will come tonight into early Friday as the front moves southward and the warm humid Gulf air mass is lifted over the top of the shallow cold dome. Will likely see widespread .5 to 1.0 inch of rain this afternoon through Friday evening across much of the region. Temperatures will fall into the 50’s behind the front and remain in the muggy 60’s and 70’s ahead of the boundary. Sea fog will continue to plague the coastal sites until the front reaches the coast Friday and at times may reduce visibilities to less than ½ of a mile.

Slow moving front gives up and stalls off the coast Friday afternoon as the main short wave moves NE away from the area leaving the boundary to linger over the NW Gulf. Next upper level storm system clearly noted in the water vapor off the NW US coast will drop SE into NW MX late Friday and then cut off from the main upper level steering flow. This will produce a favorable SW flow aloft over the top of the surface cold dome Friday afternoon and Saturday with warm Gulf air mass being push up and over the cold surface dome. The result will be cloudy, fog, drizzle, and light rain off and on through Saturday across the region with temperatures being held in the 50’s.

Should start to see the offshore boundary begin to move northward as a warm front Sunday as the northern MX upper level storm begins to move eastward although this boundary may be slower to move northward than the models suggest keeping most of the area cool and cloudy on Sunday. Forecast models are in decent agreement on the track of this system out of NE MX and across NW TX Monday afternoon with a strong Pacific cold front sweeping west to east across the state late Monday-Tuesday. Warm front should move northward late Sun-Mon with a return of muggy temperatures and sea fog as dewpoints push above near shore water temperatures by late Sunday. Combination of strong dynamics, plentiful moisture, and good surface convergence will likely result in a line/band of thunderstorms with this system Monday night/Tuesday morning. Severe parameters currently look marginal, but the track and intensity of this system needs to be watched over the next few days.

Additional widespread wetting rainfall tonight-Saturday night will continue to help ease the ongoing drought conditions across the area. More rainfall looks likely early next week and many SE TX counties may be able to be dropped out of the D4 (exceptional drought) status should these rains materialize as forecasted. Back to back widespread rainfalls may also be enough to finally generate some inflow into area lakes for the first time in months. Active pattern of late has brought much needed rainfall to nearly the entire state over the past 2 months and December has continued the wet trend….a trend atypical of a La Nina winter!

[baroclinic_instability]

I think it is getting close enough to starting a storm thread for this system coming through TX into the southern plains.

[Ed Lizard]

Streamer shower, no thunder, lasted 10 to 15 minutes, moderate rain, convective in nature judging by the fat drops. I'd guesstimate a tenth or more rain. A few more of these and life is good, and full Sun again.

The good stuff isn't even close yet.

[wxmx]

In the mid range timeline, I'm getting more interested on the 24-27th possible storm...colder air available.

[wxmx]

[Srain]

There is some chatter this afternoon concerning a more southerly track and deep 'cool' air associated with that feature. With the pattern as active and flip flopping by the day, nothing would surprise me. Ed will be chomping at the bits if we get another Christmas Miracle...but I'll believe it when I see it...

[wxmx]

There is some chatter this afternoon concerning a more southerly track and deep 'cool' air associated with that feature. With the pattern as active and flip flopping by the day, nothing would surprise me. Ed will be chomping at the bits if we get another Christmas Miracle...but I'll believe it when I see it...

... my post was meant to liven the discussion more than my thoughts of it verifying as a Christmas Miracle for someone who isn't used to it in the south... also, a bit as a hook for Ed...maybe we should keep the good bits in OT

[Srain]

... my post was meant to liven the discussion more than my thoughts of it verifying as a Christmas Miracle for someone who isn't used to it in the south... also, a bit as a hook for Ed...maybe we should keep the good bits in OT

You saw my banter post in OT...

[wxmx]

Oh god

[Srain]

Oh god

LOL...look at the baby dig S over Jorge's backyard....

The front continues to slowly sag S across the area. Over running rain and even a rumble or two of thunder are possible behind the front. Light rain and drizzle look to continue until Saturday. The big question will be as the front retreats N on Sunday and will we see the clouds begin to break. Monday could be warm depending on cloud cover before the next storm approaches.

Guidance has come into much better agreement regarding the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe. The solutions suggest the cold core upper low will eject ENE across Northern Mexico crossing near or just S of Amarillo and trek across the Red River Valley on Monday into Tuesday. Wrap around snow looks likely from the Guadalupe Mountains across the Panhandle and Oklahoma. A strong line of rains/storms should head E across Texas with the front bringing much cooler temps for Tuesday night.

The next in a series of upper lows drop S into the Baja Region mid week. The interesting thing to note is that systems is suggested by guidance to trek much further S across Mexico and S Central Texas next Thursday and Friday. A stronger push of 'colder' air is suggested to push S ahead of the feature as a Northern Stream Storm crosses the N Rockies/N Plains. Most all the guidance suggest that the Southern system will shear out as it crosses Texas, but caution is again advised as these upper air lows/disturbances are a nightmare to forecast beyond day 3. Right now it appears Christmas Eve could be damp and rather chilly. Stay tuned as they say. Expect changes in the Christmas Holiday timeframe.

[baroclinic_instability]

Storm thread for any Texans in the Panhandle.

[Ed Lizard]

... my post was meant to liven the discussion more than my thoughts of it verifying as a Christmas Miracle for someone who isn't used to it in the south... also, a bit as a hook for Ed...maybe we should keep the good bits in OT

I just wants Sports back, that is low drama. And who reports on Houston and Texas football like I do.

Snow miracles are always appreciated.

[Ed Lizard]

Somehow all the post frontal rain stopped as the front passed through here...

[Quixotic1]

6z GFS has 6" of snow for DFW on Christmas. A girl can dream.....

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Active weather pattern to continue into Christmas.

Cold front has finally cleared the coast after taking all night to move across the region. Numerous showers are in progress over the offshore waters and the NW Gulf this morning along and ahead of this boundary. Otherwise cool and cloudy of the land area with little rainfall noted on radar. In fact rainfall has been on the lower spectrum of the guidance overnight and much of the area has only seen amounts of .25 to .50 of an inch.

Water vapor shows the next upper level storm system dropping SSE into N MX this morning with a downstream sub-tropical flow extending from the central Pacific across TX. Some enhancement is noted over central old MX and this area of lift may help to enhance the overrunning of warm Gulf air mass over the surface cool dome this afternoon into early Saturday with some of the offshore showers moving back inland and along the coast as suggested by the 00Z WRF model. In fact this process may already be unfolding near the coastal bend as showers are currently moving toward the NNE around Matagorda Bay. Overall additional rainfall amounts through Saturday evening will be light and average less than .25 of an inch in mainly very light rain and drizzle. Models have tended to be somewhat aggressive with the recent overrunning patterns of late but in the end only modest rainfall amounts transpire.

Upper level storm in northern MX will very slowly move ENE toward TX by early next week promoting the return of the current frontal boundary northward as a warm front in the Sunday evening time period. May see some rainfall potential late Sunday as the warm front moves across the area, but much of this may be more in the form of low clouds and drizzle over actual rainfall.

Area should be warm sectored (warm and muggy) Monday with decent southerly flow as the upper level storm shears across NW TX. Pacific cold front will drive eastward across the state late Monday-Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms. Latest guidance has this system a touch more toward the north and capping developing out of northern MX late Monday suggesting the southern extent of the rainfall may be around I-10. Conditions looked much more favorable yesterday for wetting rains than today with this system.

Colder behind this system, but yet again models are now showing another upper level storm dropping into the SW US toward the middle of next week as the current pattern is stuck in repeat mode. May not see significant clearing now behind the Tuesday storm and rain chances may re-enter the forecast as early as Wed-Thurs. No significant cold air outbreaks on the horizon, but highs in the 50’s and lows in the 40’s look possible for the middle to end of next week.

[Ed Lizard]

I'm a fan of coastal lows that form on stalled fronts in the Winter and travel just far enough inland to warm sector the Houston area, with enhanced vorticity on the low and extending out the warm front.

That is all I can say for now.

[bubba hotep]

6z GFS has 6" of snow for DFW on Christmas. A girl can dream.....

This time it is for real! Or it will trend to a cold rain...

[DoctorMu]

6z GFS has 6" of snow for DFW on Christmas. A girl can dream.....

There is some heavy mischief setting up for Christmas Day. I'll take whatever falls from the sky.

We've had just 0.67 in in CLL from the overrun, mostly 1 cell. GFS has the ULL ejecting near Dallas rather than HOU on Mon. We'll see, but the Aggie Dome won't allow a middle solution.

[Srain]

lol...

[bubba hotep]

The trend is our friend... However, I'm going to wait until at least Monday of next week before getting wrapped up in that system

[Quixotic1]

Unfortunately, (fortunately?) I don't have acess to any other models that far out. 2009 (DFW)/2004 (Coast) anybody?