Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Srain]

Latest HGX update- the front is progressing even faster than they thought when they did the morning disco.

6Z GFS and 12Z NAM like the best rain North of SETX, but both have some rain, with 6Z GFS extra happy, between 3/4 and an inch of rain locally. HOU does look like ti is avoiding the showers to all sides, the models depicting a local min in precip may be on to something, but I'm glass half full.

Light upslope precip (aided by proximity to the upper low) on the models in the Northwestern Texas Panhandle and New Mexico shown on the models should be wintry, Amarillo is currently 20ºF. B-r-r-r-r-r! AMA disco doesn't think the snow will be heavy enough to justify even a WWA.

It appears a coastal low is developing down near Corpus. Judging by radar and surface obs/charts, there is a trough developing just W of Brownsville and that may well be in the beginning stages of forming the Coastal low. We will see.

[Ed Lizard]

It appears a coastal low is developing down near Corpus. Judging by radar and surface obs/charts, there is a trough developing just W of Brownsville and that may well be in the beginning stages of forming the Coastal low. We will see.

I hope a Texas version of a Nor'Easter. No snow obviously, but a low throwing abundant moisture back over the shallow coold air would be nice.

[Srain]

A band of moderate rain as well as some possible rumbles of thunder extends from Matagorda County and on NE into Harris County at this hour. The moisture fetch extends SW into the Gulf several 100 miles. A potent upper air disturbance is creating lift and snow fall rates of 1 inch per hour + re: the latest Meso Discussion from the SPC is occuring near Abilene.

[baroclinic_instability]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2369

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1155 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST

TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 050555Z - 050900Z

POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW EXISTS OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS. COINCIDING DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING

NORTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS

ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH WILL

CONTINUE TO COOL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES BELOW FREEZING.

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING

NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO

INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THIS MAY

INTENSIFY FURTHER THROUGH THE 07-10Z TIME FRAME. LATEST RUC

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK TO MODERATE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING

WILL ENHANCE LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR DENDRITIC

ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF

HEAVY SNOW RATES AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR IN A CORRIDOR NEAR/WEST

THROUGH NORTH OF ABILENE...TOWARD WICHITA FALLS AND CHILDRESS.

..KERR.. 12/05/2011

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32780218 33360107 34390009 34339893 33609821 32859899

31740066 31810217 32780218

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

First week of December will be very winter like across TX with cloudy, cold, and damp conditions expected

Slow moving cold front has moved offshore this morning with a secondary and much stronger push of cold air currently moving through SE TX. Widespread rainfall overnight is slowly ending from W to E as the latest short wave passes off to the north this morning while snow is falling over NC TX this morning. Strong cold air advection regime will be in place today with gusty NW winds of 15-20mph and slowly falling temperatures. Given widespread clouds and light rain/drizzle most locations will remain in the 40’s.

Another weak vort is progged to move across the area tonight and Tuesday and this will help maintain cloud cover and at least a slight chance of light rain and drizzle. Surface cold dome will deepen with time, but SW flow aloft combined with embedded vorts in this flow support continued weak lifting over the cold dome. Think clouds will remain with a few periods of drizzle/light rain especially near the coast and offshore tonight-Tuesday as supported by the 00Z WRF showing western Gulf of Mexico activity trying to lift back northward tonight and Tuesday. Feel most of this will remain offshore, but some may move inland. With clouds and drizzle and continue cold air advection, highs on Tuesday will likely be in the mid to upper 40’s. Saturated profiles in the low level do not support significant wet bulb cooling even with drier air advection from the north, so no P-type issues are expected. When profiles do become somewhat favorable over our NW counties Tuesday night, most moisture will be well south of that area with only a trapped layer of moisture under the frontal inversion.

Main trough axis still well back to the west will sweep across the area on Wednesday and this should clear skies by late Wednesday after another cold day. Slower clearing will keep highs in the 40’s again, while faster clearing might result in 50’s across the region. 00Z NAM solution holds clouds tough over the region until late Wednesday afternoon and this seems reasonable. Clear skies and cold Thursday with a light freeze likely for many areas both Thursday and Friday AM. Most locations have already had their first freeze of the season, and this cold snap does not look any colder than the previous.

Bigger headaches appear Friday-next weekend as yet another trough digs into the SW US with increasing potential for south TX coastal troughing at some point next weekend. Models have been bouncing around with the intensity and placement of such a feature and there is not much better agreement today than yesterday. 00Z GFS has come in much drier for the weekend with the possible trough not taking shape until early the following week. Will likely see some sort of moisture begin to return back northward over the cold dome by Saturday with cloudy conditions likely by Sunday. Should a coastal trough/surface low form off the S TX coast then light rain/drizzle and cool/cold temperatures could be expected next weekend. Not expecting highs much above the upper 50’s Fri-Sun and if more clouds and rain develop highs could be held in the upper 40’s/low 50’s.

Many locations picked up another .5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall over the last 24 hours. Rainfall was fairly widespread and while much of the area remains in exceptional drought, the frequency of wetting rains has increased over the past 2 months. Hopefully we can maintain this active “wet” pattern through December and chip away at that massive rainfall deficit over the region.

[DoctorMu]

The Aggie Dome kept things to a drizzle in CLL. Maybe 0.40 inches with the overrun. Just more of the same with less drizzle until tomorrow, then a slight breakup with near freezing at night beginning Tue night through Friday night.

[Quixotic1]

Snow flurries right now here in Frisco. Coupled with the 3" of rain, not a bad few days.

[My Weather Today]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

801 PM CST MON DEC 5 2011

.UPDATE...

THERE IS SOME TIME THIS EVENING FOR A RELEVANT METEOROLOGY LESSON

FOR WEATHER ENTHUSIASTS. OFTEN THESE DISCUSSIONS WILL TALK ABOUT

ICE CRYSTAL ACTIVATION AND SPECIFICALLY REFERENCE THE AVAILABILITY

OF MOISTURE AT -10 C WHEN TRYING TO FORECAST PRECIP TYPE.

SIMPLY STATED...PURE LIQUID WATER DROPLETS DO NOT FREEZE UNTIL -40

DEGREES. THIS IS BECAUSE THEY DO NOT KNOW HOW TO FORM INTO A

CRYSTAL WITHOUT SOME HELP ON THE MOLECULAR LEVEL FROM OTHER

CHEMICAL COMPOUNDS...OR OTHER ICE CRYSTALS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN

TAUGHT HOW TO CRYSTALLIZE BY ONE OF THESE COMPOUNDS. THESE SPECIAL

COMPOUNDS RANGE FROM DIRT...TO SALTS...TO POLLUTION AEROSOLS AND

EVEN SOME BACTERIA...AND ARE CALLED CLOUD CONDENSATION NUCLEI.

ESSENTIALLY THE FORMATION OF ICE CRYSTALS DEPENDS ON THE

PROBABILITY THAT SOME OF THESE COMPOUNDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE

CLOUD. THE BEST WE CAN SAY...IS THAT AROUND -8C...40 PERCENT OF

THE TIME SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS WILL BECOME CRYSTALS...AND

SATURATION AT -10C...MEANS THAT PROBABILITY INCREASES TO GREATER

THAN 70 PERCENT. THAT IS WHY WE LIKE TO USE MOISTURE AT THE -10C

AS A GOOD RULE OF THUMB FOR SUPERCOOLED LIQUID DROPS VERSUS SNOW

CRYSTALS. ONCE A WATER MOLECULE FIGURES OUT HOW TO FORM INTO A

CRYSTAL...ANY NEARBY SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS WILL QUICKLY PILE

ONTO THAT CRYSTAL CHAIN...FORMING THE LONG SIX-SIDED ICE CRYSTAL

DENDRITES WE CALL SNOWFLAKES.

ANYWAY...BACK TO TONIGHTS FORECAST...THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED

SATURATION AT -5C...WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE COLDER LEVELS ABOVE

700MB. FURTHER COOLING OF THE AIR MASS NEAR 900MB MAY MEAN

SATURATION AT -8C GENERALLY NORTH OF A CISCO TO DENTON TO PARIS

LINE. THIS WOULD BE THE REGION WHERE SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE

POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN FREEZING DRIZZLE AND

SNOW FLURRIES WOULD OCCUR. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT LINE...ANY

PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. RUC/HRRR

FORECASTS KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY OF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS

THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM.

SUPERCOOLED PRECIPITATION IS VERY HAZARDOUS AS THESE DROPS FREEZE

THE INSTANT THEY COME IN CONTACT WITH AN OBJECT ON THE

GROUND...EVEN IF THAT OBJECT IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.

THANKFULLY THE AIR AT THE SURFACE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND MUCH OF

THE RADAR RETURNS ARE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.

SHOULD REFLECTIVITY INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING TAKE PLACE

DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAY HAVE TO THINK ABOUT AN ADVISORY

FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO IMPACTS FROM ICY BRIDGES.

[bubba hotep]

Snow! Just a dusting on cars and other elevated surfaces but still it was snow!

[Srain]

It looks like a bust in max temp for my location today. HGX did lower from 48F to 44F, yet I am stuck at 38F.

[Srain]

Freeze Warnings are being issued from Brownsville to SW Louisiana at this hour.

[Ed Lizard]

HPC discussion seemed to indicate with the model disparity on troughing SW of the West Coast ridge, exactly how things would play out, but did seem to suggest limited Northern stream energy and limited moisture would tend to indicate a lack of significant stormy weather in the mid-terms. The Euro is a little wetter in the next week than the GFS for SETX, neither indicates any gullywashers,

I know, I know, fantasy land GFS should only be used to imply either a chance of snow or a hurricane hitting a US city, but with the drought, I thought it wouldn't hurt.

[Srain]

It appears College Station set a new daily record max min today. 40F was the previous record. They only reached 38F.

[#NoPoles]

It looks like a bust in max temp for my location today. HGX did lower from 48F to 44F, yet I am stuck at 38F.

lol, i got up to 60-61 today!

[msp]

31F now and dropping. today was brutally cold; one of the worst weather days i've experienced here.

[Srain]

The coldest morning of this late fall season for my location this morning with a low so far of 29F. Sunshine returns today for a brief 2 day visit, so enjoy it while it last. Yet another freeze event looks on tap for most of the area tonight with perhaps colder temps reaching near the Coast. A very progressive pattern is shaping up with a front still schedule to arrive Friday. As southerly flow off the Gulf becomes established on Thursday, expect and inversion layer to set up bringing low clouds and milder temps until the front arrives. The next front will be much like the last suggesting a shallow cold air mass with an over running situation yet again. On Saturday a coastal low/trough is suggested by guidance to form along the Lower/Middle Texas Coastal areas. Showers and even a few storms look to linger into Tuesday before another front pushes S. If the guidance is correct, we will be in a damp, cold and dreary pattern until early next week. Looking a bit further out, I don't see much change in this active pattern with the Pacific zonal flow and cut off upper lows to our W with frequent upper air disturbances passing from W to E along with a noisy Sub Tropical Jet. We need the rain and it appears we are headed into a pattern that will help in the ongoing drought situation.

[Srain]

I just took a look at the obs across the area. Galveston came in with a 33F. Victoria recorded 23F. IAH and Hobby recorded their first freezing temps, so the freeze warning verified for SE TX.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Widespread freeze across the area this morning with low temperatures falling into the mid to upper 20’s for most areas to near 30-33 along the beaches under clear skies and modest NW winds. Interestingly both Victoria and Port Lavaca fell to 23 this morning although the Victoria sensor looks to be malfunctioning, both of these sites were about 3-5 degrees colder than surrounding obs, but then Corpus managed 26 so it looks like a fairly decent freeze along the coastal plains this morning. A few lows this morning:

Bush IAH: 30

Hobby: 33

Sugar Land: 28

College Station: 26

Tomball: 28

Conroe: 29

Wharton: 28

Palacios: 27

Bay City: 30

Crockett: 30

Huntsville: 29

Austin Berg: 22

San Antonio: 28

Cotulla: 25

High pressure in control of the weather over the state with cold NW winds flowing SE off the snow covered plains of NW TX this morning which will result in a very slow warm up today even with full sun. Expect highs to only touch 50 early this afternoon and then begin a rapid decline this evening. All of the area will freeze again tonight, but lows will be about the same as this morning under clear skies and light winds. Most sensitive vegetation has likely already been frozen and we are not looking at a hard freeze, so no warnings are likely for Thursday AM.

If you like the sun take advantage of it today as the rest of the forecast looks to turn cloudy, cold, and damp. Nearby sub-tropical jet extending from the central Pacific across S TX will result in a gradual overrunning of moisture over the cold surface dome starting later Thursday. As moisture begins to spread back across the surface cold dome, clouds will increase from south to north late Thursday with most areas cloudy by Thursday evening. Weak front will cross the region on Friday and this boundary combined with ongoing isentropic lifting of moisture over the surface cold dome will support a slight chances of showers mainly from Wharton to Galveston and southward.

Front moves off the coast Friday afternoon and with continued sub-tropical jet overhead and a newly developing storm over the SW US, south TX coastal surface trough is forecasted to develop Saturday into Sunday. SE winds above the surface will swing moisture northward over the cold dome at the surface while developing surface low near/ESE of Brownsville will lock NNE to NE surface winds in place keeping the cold surface air in place. Saturday will likely be the best of the two weekend days with Sunday featuring more clouds and rainfall. Expect to see isolated showers Saturday from Matagorda Bay southward and then more widespread light rain/drizzle Sunday across much of the area. Highs will depend on the amount of cloud cover and rainfall coverage over the weekend, but the trend is pointing toward more clouds and rain helping to keep highs in the lower 50’s, some areas may not get out of the 40’s either day under thicker clouds.

Surface trough develops into a full blow coastal low by Monday and begins to skirt NE along the TX offshore waters. This is a classic coastal track for widespread rains Sunday night into Monday night with cold surface temperatures. May see some decent thunderstorm chances near the coast/offshore Monday depending on where the low tracks. Inland mostly a widespread light to at times moderate rainfall. Temperatures will be on the cold side with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 40’s/50’s. With the air column saturated and little cold air advection in the Sun-Mon night time period this will be an all liquid system. Still a few days out on this feature and the models have been differing on timing and how quickly things ramp up and then move northeast. With energy still back to our SW Monday, expect the slower ejection of the trough and coastal low, so this may linger rain chances into next Tuesday.

Interestingly enough we have fallen into a fairly wet pattern of late with widespread rain making system about every 2-4 days…a pattern more common during TX El Nino years instead of La Nina. Recent rains seem to be tied to an enhancement of tropical convection in the central Pacific and the downstream affect of a more moisture filled sub-tropical jet stream over TX. Do not expect this pattern to last much beyond late December, so we will take the rains as they come for now, as a drier La Nina pattern should begin to return toward the start of 2012.

[Srain]

Hard Freeze Warning out for tonight/tomorrow morning for our neighbors in far SE TX/SW LA...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA

1030 AM CST WED DEC 7 2011

...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...

...FREEZE WARNING FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN

LOUISIANA...

.COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA

THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AFTER

SUNSET...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE...EXCELLENT

RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COMMENCE...RESULTING IN AN AREA WIDE

FREEZE.

LAZ027>033-041>045-TXZ180-201-216-259>262-080600-

/O.NEW.KLCH.HZ.W.0012.111208T0300Z-111208T1500Z/

VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-

CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-

HARDIN-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-

SOUTHERN NEWTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...

PINEVILLE...MARKSVILLE...BUNKIE...COTTONPORT...SIMMESPORT...

MANSURA...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...VILLE PLATTE...MAMOU...

OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...JENNINGS...WELSH...

LAKE ARTHUR...CROWLEY...RAYNE...CHURCH POINT...LAFAYETTE...

BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...

LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...JASPER...

KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE

1030 AM CST WED DEC 7 2011

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM

CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A HARD

FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO

9 AM CST THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING

LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS AREAS FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD

...AND RANGE FROM 24 TO 27 BY DAYBREAK. FREEZING TEMPERATURES

ARE EXPECTED FOR 9 TO 12 HOURS...RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM

THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT EXPOSED

PIPES...PLANTS...AND PETS.

[wxmx]

Classic dreary multiday drizzle/light rain event for S TX/NE MX for the weekend. We are probably looking at 2-3 days of non stop drizzle from Fri thru Mon with a polar high sliding east and overrunning precipitation. Very Niñoish.

[Ed Lizard]

Dreary but not much precip per the GFS. The Capitol One Bowl Season can't come soon enough. And we can't get babysitting for my wife's office Christmas party Saturday at this cool place up towards the Woodlands, with a bowling alley, bar, arcade and laser tag range because her parents are going to some distant relatives quince.

[Quixotic1]

The coldest morning of this late fall season for my location this morning with a low so far of 29F. Sunshine returns today for a brief 2 day visit, so enjoy it while it last. Yet another freeze event looks on tap for most of the area tonight with perhaps colder temps reaching near the Coast. A very progressive pattern is shaping up with a front still schedule to arrive Friday. As southerly flow off the Gulf becomes established on Thursday, expect and inversion layer to set up bringing low clouds and milder temps until the front arrives. The next front will be much like the last suggesting a shallow cold air mass with an over running situation yet again. On Saturday a coastal low/trough is suggested by guidance to form along the Lower/Middle Texas Coastal areas. Showers and even a few storms look to linger into Tuesday before another front pushes S. If the guidance is correct, we will be in a damp, cold and dreary pattern until early next week. Looking a bit further out, I don't see much change in this active pattern with the Pacific zonal flow and cut off upper lows to our W with frequent upper air disturbances passing from W to E along with a noisy Sub Tropical Jet. We need the rain and it appears we are headed into a pattern that will help in the ongoing drought situation.

Srain, I saw your morning email from Jeff and his mention of the enhanced tropical convection. I was just wondering what your (or any other mets) thoughts were on the reason for this? Despite every signal going against it (cold stratosphere, nina, mjo waves getting stopped) we've got an active STJ. It is the most surprising thing, IMO, so far this season.

[Srain]

Another very chilly morning across SE TX with temps in the upper 20's N and mid 30's closer to the Coast. A weak onshore flow should begin today and increasing clouds seem to be in order as the afternoon/evening wears on. Temps should moderate some has high pressure moves off to the E. Another short wave trough with an attending frontal boundary is sliding down the Plains. A modified Canadian cold front should pass during the day late Friday. The fly in the ointment will be a possible coastal trough forming as the frontal boundary stalls just offshore over the weekend. Cloudiness and possible over running showers may develop with chilly NE winds at the surface. There is still some question as to if and when a coastal low will form and exactly where that feature would form late in the weekend. Guidance continues to struggle with the zonal flow and upper air features as well. The models suggest yet another upper low to our W near California, but the eventual track is uncertain. Due to uncertainty of embedded disturbances riding along the Sub Tropical Jet that will remain close by, the forecast remains challenging at best. The GFS would bring a stronger disturbance across the S Plains while the Euro/Canadian suggest a track into the Central Plains and are weaker with that disturbance. As we have seen, these cut off upper air features and troughs to our W, they create model mayhem. So it appears there are more questions than answers in the medium range forecast. The main system to watch in the upcoming weekend will be the coastal low/trough and exactly if and where it will form. A strong Western Gulf disturbance would tend to give us clouds and shower chances with chilly temps. We'll see what the guidance offers later today and tomorrow,, but expect more 'fine tuning' in this hectic unusual pattern that is not typical in a weak/moderate La Nina.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Another frigid morning across the region with temperatures at or below freezing for most of the areas and in the low to mid 20’s over the northeast counties, including a 24 at Conroe and 23 at Lufkin.

600am Temps:

IAH: 29

Sugar Land: 30

Tomball: 27

Huntsville: 29

Brenham: 27

College Station: 32

Palacios: 29

Victoria: 27

Angleton: 30

Port Lavaca: 28

High pressure overhead this morning is starting to move eastward today and this will result in the low level winds turning more east and southeast…this is already happening in some areas this morning especially near the coast and around Matagorda Bay. Clouds will begin to increase this afternoon and early evening as moisture increases off of the western Gulf of Mexico with cloudy skies expected overnight. Weak front will move across the area on Friday helping to lower overnight lows for Saturday morning back into the low to mid 30’s. There will be a very slight chance of light rain Friday along the frontal boundary, but think most locations will remain dry.

A fairly decent day on Saturday as weak ridging behind the front dries out at least the NE ½ of the region with partly cloudy skies. Areas SW of Houston may remain more cloudy than sunny on Saturday with weak overrunning moisture starting to surge northward from a western Gulf coastal trough anchored near the S TX coast. Forecast becomes increasingly difficult post Saturday as models are not handling the placement nor intensity of the developing coastal trough along the lower TX coast very well. More aggressive runs yesterday have backed away overnight and delayed the movement NE of this feature into the early-mid part of next week. Feel rain chances for Sunday will remain further to the south over the coastal bend and deep south TX, with maybe a few showers into the Matagorda Bay region. Rest of the area will likely only have extensive cloud cover and cool temperatures.

Into next week, forecast will hinge on how quickly the coastal trough moves NE and when a developing upper level storm over the SW US ejects into the plains. Position of the SW US upper level system favors downstream southwest flow aloft over TX with embedded vort maxes or impulses within the sub-tropical jet. Increasing Gulf moisture through much of early-mid next week combined with these jet stream disturbances will likely result in some enhanced rain chances, but when, where, and how much is questionable as timing of such fine features is difficult this far in advance. For now will go with 30% rain chances each day Sun-Wed and increase the chances when it becomes clearer when such disturbances will cross the region. As for temperatures slow warming each day with highs possibly back into the 70’s by next Wednesday, but much of the temperature forecast will be highly based on how strong the coastal troughing develops and its ability to keep the cold low level air mass locked in place into next week. A strong coastal trough will result in more clouds and cooler temperatures with a weaker trough allowing better defined SE flow to increase warmth and humidity off the Gulf.

[wxmx]

Dreary but not much precip per the GFS. The Capitol One Bowl Season can't come soon enough. And we can't get babysitting for my wife's office Christmas party Saturday at this cool place up towards the Woodlands, with a bowling alley, bar, arcade and laser tag range because her parents are going to some distant relatives quince.

Yes, it will be more of an event for Popo's old stomping grounds.

[bubba hotep]

The GFS has been hinting at something interesting next weekend for a bit now but 18z goes full on crazy talk! Can't post images from phone but I'm convinced everyone knows where to find said crazy images.

[Quixotic1]

The GFS has been hinting at something interesting next weekend for a bit now but 18z goes full on crazy talk! Can't post images from phone but I'm convinced everyone knows where to find said crazy images.

You mean the 10" of snow dumped in North/East Texas and NE La? LOL. I liked the tongue of warm air at 10m on the backside of the low at 216h.

[Srain]

The cold front is progressing through Oklahoma back into N Central Texas this morning. Temps are running almost 20-30 degrees warmer than yesterday across the area. Clouds associated with a light onshore flow and a noisy sub tropical jet will likely lead to a big temp differential across the area with highs in the. mid 50's N and 60's closer to the Coast. The 'cold' front should arrive during the afternoon hours turning our surface winds to the NNE, but clouds will linger with a couple of embedded short waves to our SW and W. Light rain/drizzle may occur to our SW as moisture pools near Matagorda Bay, but the rest of the area should remain dry. Clouds look to lift out during the day on Sunday as a weak high pressure ridge shifts E and a warm up begins. As of now it appears a pesky cut off low and trough will settled into California and weak upper air energy/disturbances will eject NE mid week. A Pacific front looks to stall to our N along or just S of the Red River Valley and linger as the upper air pattern elongates from the Desert SW to the NE and high pressure builds across the Gulf and SE US. The next push of 'colder' air doesn't look likely until perhaps sometime near next weekend as the upper pattern remains zonal and all the main weather 'drivers' remain well to our N across the Northern Plains and the Hudson Bay Vortex relaxes. With all that said, there still remains some uncertainty with how things will play out as a Coastal trough/low could form to our SW this weekend and there is still no agreement with just how strong or where the Upper Air features to our W will eject E as well as track. The GFS suggests a more southerly track while the Euro would take these features NE into the Central Plains. We'll see how all this evolves over the next couple of days.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Clouds have returned to the area overnight with 600am temperatures running 15-25 degrees warmer this morning than yesterday due to clouds and weak onshore winds. Temperatures range from the low 40’s north to near 60 on the beaches. Radar shows a few patches of very light rain/drizzle along the coastal counties from Matagorda Bay to Bolivar this morning with clouds increasing elsewhere.

Cold front over NW TX into OK will progress southward today and will combine with an incoming short wave over the Big Bend region and returning moisture to produce a chance of light rainfall and drizzle over mainly the coastal and southwestern counties. Liked the look of the 00Z WRF model suggesting scattered areas of light rain/drizzle from late this morning to late afternoon from Houston southwest toward Matagorda Bay and then southward into deep south TX. Most of this rainfall will be extremely light with accumulations of a trace to less than .10 of an inch.

Cold front will push offshore this evening with northerly low level flow ushering in a drier low level air mass. Weak ridging over the state on Saturday will help erode the cloud deck toward the southwest, and most of the area should see sun on Saturday with cool temperatures. Pesky cloud deck being enhanced by a lower TX/NE MX coastal trough will be lurking just to our SW on Saturday and areas around Matagorda Bay may be more cloudy than sunny. Active sub-tropical jet carving across TX will help lift the cloud deck back northward on Sunday as the lower TX coastal trough becomes more defined. Latest models have this trough a little further southward (south of KBRO) and so most of the widespread rain and drizzle will be focused over deep south TX into the Rio Grande plains and southern coastal bend Sun-Mon. SE TX will lie on the northern fringe with a battle between returning moisture to the SW and dry ENE flow backing in from the E. Best rain chances (20-30%) will be focused over our SW and W counties with better chances south and west of those areas. A few impulses in the sub-tropical jet may enhance rain chances at some point in the Sun-Tue period, but when is questionable as such disturbances are hard to forecast this far out in time.

Next actual storm system to affect the region may be on course for the Wed-Fri period of next week with gradually warming temperatures and moisture levels in the Mon-Wed time frame. Not overly impressed with the depth of the next storm system nor its ability to bring rainfall or decent cooling. Will go with a warming trend starting Sun with highs returning to the 70’s by Wed and lows rising from the 30’s over the weekend into the 40’s/50’s Monday and 50’s/60’s Tue-Wed. 20-30% rain chances will be maintained nearly all next week with the active sub-tropical jet overhead. CMC model is slightly more aggressive with rain chances and QPF than the GFS, but backing dry air to the east and ongoing exceptional drought leads me toward the drier GFS theme.

[Ed Lizard]

You mean the 10" of snow dumped in North/East Texas and NE La? LOL. I liked the tongue of warm air at 10m on the backside of the low at 216h.

I had to post the TwisterData.com's or whatever the name of the site is snow accumulation on my FB page. Ian appreciated it.

I fear great boredom except for random craziness from the GFS beyond the wave number truncation for a while, 8 days of existential unexcitement until the first hint of relief, Temple versus Wyoming in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl.

That and a stormy pattern for Northern Europe.