Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[DoctorMu]

A very similar statement for us with a high probability for a wet Tuesday solution. Lots of moisture in place.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX346 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS LIBERTY COUNTYTHIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EASTAND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISEA VERY WARM NOVEMBER AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITHTEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXTSTORM SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA.MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THISSYSTEM AND NOW BRING IT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ONTUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD WITH THISSYSTEM AND PW VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.7 AND 1.8INCHES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FORTUESDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO RECEIVEBETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FORSEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE ALTHOUGHTHE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME STRONGERTHUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVEREWORDING OUT OF THE GRIDS AND ONLY HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY WITHTHE HWO. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END LATE TUESDAYAS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EAST OF THE REGION.A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTHE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURESTHROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND WEWILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES WITH ISOLATEDSHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. 38

http://www.srh.noaa....pac_wv_loop.php

[Srain]

Guidance continues to struggle with the timing of the upper low nearing the Baja Region, but enough agreement is in place that a potential exists for a severe weather episode that the SPC has placed most of SE TX in a Slight Risk for Tuesday. While the parameter are not that strong, the risk for tornadoes with strong down bursts appears to be the biggest threat. While heavy rainfall has diminished somewhat due to the progressive nature of the upper disturbance and capping ahead of that feature, there remains enough uncertainty to warrant caution of quick heavy rainfall if caught under any thunderstorms that do develop. Soundings indicate a cap will be in place today, but I wouldn't be surprise to see streamer showers begin to develop as the day goes on. Breaks in the clouds should allow the low 80's to be again reached today. We'll need to keep on eye to our W this evening to see if a meso convective system develops. Longer range suggests we'll do it all again in the coming weekend as yet another upper disturbance/trough develops to our W.

[Ed Lizard]

New NAM is depressing, under half an inch at my yard, but SAT and AUS do ok, and it is just one model.

[Srain]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Widespread rainfall and some severe weather likely on Tuesday

Powerful upper level storm system over NW MX today is starting to move eastward this afternoon with downstream moisture advection in progress over TX from both the Gulf and the Pacific. Increasing low level moisture below the capping inversion in the mid levels is supporting isolated showers along and south of I-10 west of Katy or over the counties of Fort Bend, Brazoria, Matagorda, Wharton, Jackson, and Calhoun currently. Capping should limit overall intensity and coverage of these showers today.

Main event slated for Tuesday as potent upper level storm moves across TX. Large scale lift will come to bear across the region along with favorable jet stream positions and mid level cooling. Low level moisture surges early Tuesday with PWS rising into the 1.6-1.8 in range or nearly 150% of normal for mid November. Combination of cooling with the storm system in the mid levels and strong lift will help erode the mid level cap and expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop starting Tuesday morning and lasting into the afternoon hours.

Overall severe threat is expected to mainly be large hail and damaging winds, but a tornado threat does exist over the upper TX coastal plain Tuesday. Marginal surface heating will likely support early afternoon CAPE values of 500-1200J/Kg over SE TX amidst steepening lapse rates yielding an increasingly unstable low level air mass. 60-80kt jet streak noses into the upper TX coast from the southwest out of NE MX during the early afternoon hours and this should help support overall thunderstorm development and increasing intensity. While low level winds fields are backed to a degree, the intensity of the low level shear over SE TX remains questionable and this fact is currently mitigating a greater tornado threat. Should stronger low level wind fields and shear be realized over the region a greater tornado threat will be in place. At this time large hail appears to be the main severe mode.

A combination of linear lines and clusters along with a few isolated low topped supercells look possible on Tuesday. Favorable Gulf inflow and potential for cell training will yield some decent rainfall totals in SW to NE corridors across the region as the air mass nears saturation just ahead of the upper level impulse. Expect numerous thunderstorms to develop and move from SW to NE across the area with widespread rainfall amounts of .5 -1.5 inches and isolated amounts of 2-3 inches under the stronger cells or where cell training develops. Progressive nature of the entire system along with dry ground conditions should help mitigate the flash flood threat. This system looks to get everyone east of I-35 wet!

Dry conditions will be in place Wednesday-Friday with high pressure in control. Next upper level storms digs into the SW US this weekend, but the potential ejection eastward of this system appears more toward the central plains than TX as downstream sub-tropical ridging builds NW into the TX coast from the Gulf.

[DoctorMu]

THAR SHE BLOWS! in NW Mexico heading toward the Big Bend...more of a Beluga than a great white whale though

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix/epac_wv_loop.php

[arizonasooner]

It looks to me like much of Texas might get dry-slotted by this system.

Hope I'm wrong.

[Ed Lizard]

It looks to me like much of Texas might get dry-slotted by this system.

Hope I'm wrong.

Upper low looks on track to me...

[Ed Lizard]

Early morning SWODY1 has most of the area in a SLIGHT RISK, but the probs don't look mega-exciting.

But what is mega-exciting, rain!!!

[Srain]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0700 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S TX ENE INTO THE LWR MS

VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...

LOW AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD

AS FLAT RIDGE PERSISTS E OF THE BAHAMAS. UPR LOW NOW APPROACHING

THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY OF TX SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES NE TO NEAR

KHOU THIS EVE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ENE

ACROSS LA/MS EARLY WED AND BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING WSW

FLOW OVER THE SERN STATES.

DIFFUSE FRONT THAT HAS BECOME NEARLY STNRY FROM N TX ENE INTO KY/TN

WILL BE REINFORCED TNGT AND EARLY WED BY STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE NOW

DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/UPR MS VLY. A SFC WAVE SHOULD EVOLVE

ON THE SRN FRONT OVER E TX LATER TODAY AND TNGT AS THE RIO GRANDE

UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD. THE WAVE SHOULD REACH NE LA BY THE END

OF THE PERIOD.

...S TX ENE INTO THE LWR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...

S TX SQLN SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E THROUGH LATER THIS

MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT

OVER THE MIDDLE TX GULF CSTL PLN...AS ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPR

IMPULSE OVERSPREADS REGION. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY

/SBCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG AND PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ WITH 35-45 KT SSWLY

DEEP SHEAR MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLD DMGG WIND AS THE SQLN AND

ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF IT MOVE/DEVELOP E TOWARD THE

KCRP/KVCT/KHOU AREAS.

THE BELT OF STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE UPR TROUGH SHOULD

REACH THE UPR TX GULF CST AND LA BY MID/LATE AFTN. COUPLED WITH

MODEST SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...THIS

SHOULD FOSTER A CONTINUED RISK FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS ENE INTO THE

SABINE RVR VLY. A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM A BIT FARTHER

N...INVOF STALLED FRONT/LOW LVL BUOYANCY MAX FROM THE ARKLATEX

THROUGH CNTRL/SRN AR INTO THE LWR TN VLY. SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP

SHEAR OVER THE WRN HALF OF THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD LIMIT STORM

SUSTENANCE AND ORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH ISOLD SVR ACTIVITY CANNOT BE

RULED OUT. STRONGER SHEAR...BUT MORE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION WILL

BE PRESENT OVER THE LWR TN VLY...ON ERN SIDE OF EJECTING UPR

IMPULSE. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD A MARGINAL WIND DMG THREAT

LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVE.

REMNANTS OF THE SE TX SQLN MAY CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLD SVR THREAT

TNGT/EARLY WED AS THE STORMS CONTINUE ENE INTO ERN LA AND CNTRL/SRN

MS IN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING WAA AHEAD OF E TX SFC WAVE. ALTHOUGH

THIS MAY RESULT IN A LATE NIGHT FLARE-UP OF ACTIVITY...DEGREE OF

ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT /LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES/ SHOULD

BE TEMPERED BY DIURNAL STABILIZATION.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 11/15/2011

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Active Weather Day for much of SE, central, and coastal TX.

Newly issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 110am for central TX

Upper level low over northern MX just south of Big Bend is moving eastward this morning with a downstream line of thunderstorms from west of San Antonio, TX to north of Cotulla, TX moving eastward at 30-40mph. 12Z soundings capping continues at Corpus Christi, but that capping greatly weakens northward along the TX coast as is evident by soundings from Lake Charles and the ongoing development of showers over the western sections of SE TX currently. Air mass over the coastal bend and central TX is moderately unstable with CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. 0-6km shear of 30-40kts out of the SW is common over much of central and SE TX this morning with 0-3km Helicity values of 300-400 over the southwestern sections of SE TX roughly from Sugar Land to Victoria. Vigorous lift from the approaching upper level low will help foster downstream development of showers and thunderstorms over much of the region over the next 2-6 hours with the greatest coverage and intensity coming with the passage of a linear MCS/squall line between 1100am to 300pm across the region.

Squall line to our west will march eastward at a steady 20-40kts today and reach our western counties from College Station to Victoria around 1100am. Increasing lift ahead of this line may encourage the formation of cells ahead of the main line especially around the Matagorda Bay region. While low level profiles are not overly impressive for tornado formation the region bounded from Rockport to Victoria to Katy to Galveston appears to be in the best location of storm rotation and this area shows the greatest potential for tornadoes from discrete cells ahead of the main line or embedded supercells within the line. The rest of the region will also have the potential for a severe threat with damaging winds and large hail being the main products. Nose of a 60-80kt jet will come to bear across SE TX early this afternoon and some of this energy may be brought to the surface in the more intense thunderstorms. Line segments may bow forward resulting in damaging straight line winds of 60-70mph, but this should be in isolated locations along the line. Large hail may be slightly more common. SPC slight risk outline remains in effect for the entire region and a severe weather watch will likely be issued later this morning for the region.

Rainfall:

Approaching system of this sort tends to favor heavy rainfall with adequate moisture in place. Downstream air mass is moist with PWS of 1.6-1.8 inches in a corridor from NE TX to near Del Rio this morning. Slug of dry air over the NW Gulf of Mexico with PW of .9-1.1 inch is moving toward extreme SE TX and SW LA this morning. Moisture levels increase from around 1.0 inch over Sabine Pass area to over 1.4 inches near Columbus and additional advection of higher moisture is expected today. PW values increasing into the 1.6 range will be around 150% of normal for mid November suggesting a heavy rainfall threat. Mitigating factor to widespread heavy rainfall is the fast forward motion of the storm system and linear nature of the line of storms producing a one shot round of weather. Widespread rainfall amounts of .5-1.5 inches will be common with isolated totals of 2-3 inches under the stronger storms and where any cell training develops. Could see a period of training SW to NE moving cells from mid morning to early afternoon ahead of the main line west of I-45 where moisture is greatest. So far this morning activity in this region has remained spotty, but is showing a tendency toward building in training lien segments.

Storms system will be east of the region by late evening with a dry and warm day expected on Wednesday ahead of a cold front late Wednesday night. Front should be off the coast Thursday morning with gusty NW winds and much drier air mass. Highs on the Thursday only be in the upper 60’s under mainly sunny skies with lows in the 40’s Friday morning. Next storm system digs into the SW US early this weekend resulting in winds turning back onshore over TX and a return of the humidity by this weekend. Moisture level may be deep enough this weekend to produce a few streamer showers moving inland off the western Gulf.

Note: Rainfall deficit at Tomball for since October 2010 has now reached -40.52 inches.

[Ed Lizard]

Too bad its November, the sky is clear. But I'll be rooting on our meager November insolation...

[Srain]

New Watch Box up for SE TX...

[Ed Lizard]

I'm not super enthusiastic about severe chances based on forecast soundings, but maybe the combination of a touch of directional, and decent speed, shear in the fatter part of a not too fat CAPE curve can still generate some decent hail.

[Srain]

E-mail update from Jeff:

SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of SE TX until 400pm this afternoon.

This watch includes all counties and coastal waters in SE TX.

Strong upper level disturbance crossing the Rio Grande River leading to the development of strong to severe thunderstorms from the coastal bend of TX into central TX this morning. Downstream air mass over SE TX is becoming increasingly unstable with increasing lift from the upper low and cooling mid levels. Radar shows numerous thunderstorms starting to develop over our western counties and over the NW Gulf offshore of Rockport toward Seadrift. With additional heating over the next few hours storms will continue to intensify with the threat for wind damage and hail increasing. An isolated tornado threat will be focused around the Matagorda Bay region where parameters are greatest, but still fairly marginal. Main threats will be wind damage with gust of 50-70mph in bowing line segments and large hail.

Storms should be existing the area around 400-600pm this evening.

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2323

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1035 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 884...885...

VALID 151635Z - 151830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

884...885...CONTINUES.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH

THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND

PERHAPS A VERY BRIEF TORNADO MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

A SMALL MCS WITH TRAILING OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS S

CNTRL INTO SERN TX...WITH A FEW CELLS FORMING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF

SOME CLOUD BREAKS WITH POCKETS OF HEATING.

SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER SERN TX INTO LA

TODAY...AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT AS WELL AS A

COMPACT JET MAX EJECTS EWD. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS RATHER

DISORGANIZED STORM MODES ONGOING...AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LOW TO

MID LEVEL VEERING/BACKING WITH HEIGHT SHOWN ON THE LDB PROFILER.

THIS PORTION OF THE HODOGRAPH MAY STRAIGHTEN OUT LATER

TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF A MESOLOW CAN FORM NEAR THE LARGER CLUSTERS OF

STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 11/15/2011

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

[Quixotic1]

Glad to see SE Texas get this.

It's been a total bummer for North Central. Went from expecting 1" to zip. The last three systems have been woefully short of expectations.

[DoctorMu]

I don't see significant lot of rotation from the cells so far. There's a squall line setting up,but not anything resembling a rain shield, training, or any of the fun stuff leading to a partial or all day rain. Straight line winds most likely rather than anything tornadic-like. An approaching cluster and squall line from the SW are the best chances at our 1-2 in in CLL. We could get a lot less, or there's an outside chance of more during the day, but it's tougher for that November sun to rustle up daytime heating gain into this.

[Srain]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1226 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY...

EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 100 PM CST.

* AT 1224 PM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60

MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCHULENBURG...AND MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HIGH HILL...FREYBURG...SWISS

ALP...DUBINA AND AMMANNSVILLE.

[msp]

disappointing so far. we've been missed left and right by cells and have only picked up .02"

looks to change though as the cluster to our southwest finally moves in.

at least we've got a warning now on the cell in fayette co. near I-10.

[Srain]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

TXC201-152000-

/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0121.111115T1933Z-111115T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

133 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST

* AT 129 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOMBALL...

OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF KATY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT

LIMITED TO HOOKS AIRPORT.

[Srain]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

144 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 138 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE

STATE PARK...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST

AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT

LIMITED TO HUNTSVILLE.

[Ed Lizard]

TORNADO WARNING

TXC339-407-152045-

/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0025.111115T2005Z-111115T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

205 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 202 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHEPHERD... MOVING NORTH AT 25

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

COLDSPRING.

[Srain]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

216 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 211 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUSH-INTERCONTINENTAL

AIRPORT...OR NEAR ALDINE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT

LIMITED TO WOODBRANCH...SPRING...SPLENDORA...ROMAN FOREST...PORTER

HEIGHTS...PATTON VILLAGE AND HUMBLE.

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/15/11 1934Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1915Z JS

.

LOCATION...W TENNESSEE/W KENTUCKY/S INDIANA/S ILLINOIS...

LOCATION...SE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS/E AND SE TEXAS...

.

ATTN WFOS...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

ATTN WFOS...EWX...

ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

.

EVENT...PERSISTENT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN CONTINUES FROM

ARKANSAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE VORT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARE

SPREADING TO THE NE ACROSS SE AND E TEXAS.

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR/VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL SHOW SOME

EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS SW TO CENT AR CLOSE TO SFC BOUNDARY

WHICH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS DURING THE MORNING

AND EARLY AFTERNOON. OBSERVED RATES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN LOCALLY GREATER

THAN 1"/HR WITH TOTALS OF OVER 2" DURING THE MORNING WHICH IS ON TOP OF

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE

NORTHEAST, TOTALS WITH MORE STRATIFORM RAINFALL HAVE BEEN A BIT LESS BUT

MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS PERSISTED ACROSS W TN/W KY WITH

LOCALLY OVER 1" AMOUNTS FALLING THIS MORNING. THIS RAINFALL ALSO APPEARS

TO BE FALLING SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL

FROM YESTERDAY. ALSO WATCHING CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF VORT MOVING

TO THE NE ACROSS S CENT TO SE TX. ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH BEST CONCENTRATION LOCATED

TO THE NW OF HOUSTON. GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILES, SATELLITE ESTIMATED

RATES ARE IN THE 2-3"/HR RANGE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. SATELLITE

IMAGERY IS POINTING TOWARD THE APPROXIMATE REGION FROM AUSTIN COUNTY TO

WASHINGTON COUNTY OF SE TX AS AN AREA WHICH HAS RECEIVED ESTIMATES OF

AT LEAST 2-3" AND EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS.

.

AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA

SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY

10-15 MINUTES.

.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-0000Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR

IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...GREATEST CONCERN IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD IS WITH

THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FOR REGION FROM SW AR AND S CENT AR

TO W KY/W TN. LATEST IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS MORE CELLS FIRING OVER NE TX

WHICH ARE POISED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE TO THE NE AND BACK INTO AR. ALSO

SEE NO REASON FOR AT LEAST MODERATE OVERRUNNING RAINFALL TO CONTINUE

FOR AREA FARTHER TO THE NE INTO W TN/W TO N CENT KY WITH TOTALS LIKELY

BEING HIGHER FOR W KY/W TN THAN SPOTS MORE TO THE NE. FOR SE AND E TX,

SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM TOTALS OF 2-3" WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS OVER 3"

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE AREA MOVES OFF TO

THE NE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF AN OVERALL THREAT THIS SITUATION IS FOR

TX CONSIDERING THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH DO BELIEVE THERE

IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF LOCALIZED SHORT TERM (1-2 HOURS) ISSUES WITH

OVER 3" AMOUNTS.

[Ed Lizard]

San Jac tornado is verified by law enforcement...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

227 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

TXC407-152045-

/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-111115T2045Z/

SAN JACINTO TX-

227 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CST FOR SAN

JACINTO COUNTY...

AT 225 PM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO HAS TOUCHED DOWN AT LEAST 2 TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SAN

JACINTO COUNTY ALONG HIGHWAY 105 AND LEE TURNER ROAD. THIS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLDSPRING...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST

OF CLEVELAND...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

SHEPHERD

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0230 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 885...

VALID 152030Z - 152230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 885

CONTINUES.

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STORMS ACROSS SERN TX ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING

WITH INCREASING ECHO TOP HEIGHTS AND MESOCYCLONES ON A FEW CELLS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A MESO-LOW HAS FORMED NEAR THEN NRN EDGE

OF A LINE OF STORMS...WHICH REMAINS BROKEN. THERE IS LITTLE WLY PUSH

BEHIND THIS LINE...THUS STORMS MAY REMAIN CELLULAR RATHER THAN

LINEAR. AS SUCH...THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN

PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BASE VELOCITIES ON RADARS HAVE GENERALLY SHOWN

OUTFLOWS OF 30-40 KT.

THE LATEST HOUSTON VAD WIND PROFILE DOES SHOW SOME LOCALIZED

ENHANCEMENT FROM THE APPROACHING STORMS AND MESO-LOW WITH 0-1 SRH

AROUND 200 M2/S2. HOWEVER...THE 18Z SHV SOUNDING INDICATES VERY POOR

MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILES...WHICH IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY SLOW

UPDRAFT GROWTH AND ACCELERATIONS.

A FEW OF THESE CELLS MAY CYCLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WEAK

TORNADO. WITH MODERATE SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE...SOME OF

THESE CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM

SERN TX INTO LA. THUS...ANOTHER WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED IN A FEW

HOURS.

..JEWELL.. 11/15/2011

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[DoctorMu]

disappointing so far. we've been missed left and right by cells and have only picked up .02"

looks to change though as the cluster to our southwest finally moves in.

at least we've got a warning now on the cell in fayette co. near I-10.

The Red Sea parted and strong cells slid to the NW and E. 0.26 in at Easterwood. Maybe 0.4 in at home. We'll take anything at this point,

[DoctorMu]

Wishin', and hopin', and thinkin', and prayin'

[Ed Lizard]

The dreaded 'capping' word is mentioned for E and SE Texas...

[Quixotic1]

If only: