forkyfork Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 the blocking is gone by that point and every model cuts the storm west also notice the big vortex in northern canada... not favorable for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 JB says as much in his blog this AM...what a joke this month is turning out to be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 if thats the case look for 50+ temperatures ahead of the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 the blocking is gone by that point and every model cuts the storm west also notice the big vortex in northern canada... not favorable for us Might not be 60 and rain but it's likely wet not white for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 As much as the models have been flip flopping and as well as they have been doing with high temperatures ..I think i will take my chances and spin the roulette before taking there word at 7 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 It' way too early especially considering the flip flop of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 the blocking is gone by that point and every model cuts the storm west also notice the big vortex in northern canada... not favorable for us i was telling people not to jump ship yesterday and wait it out, but now i lost most hope for big city snows. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The models don't seem to be too consistent yet like atownwxwatcher said, but if I had to make a first call for this storm, I'd go with a mainly, if not plain rain event for NYC, with the potential for heavy rainfall and windy conditions once again if the models showing the storm to our west verify. Unless we see some major changes with the models, it looks like this storm is going to stay near or west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Soo..... is that 6-12" for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Pro mets owned the models on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 As much as the models have been flip flopping and as well as they have been doing with high temperatures ..I think i will take my chances and spin the roulette before taking there word at 7 days out... Just make sure you buy in with at least twenty nickels and cover the roulette chart before you spin that wheel. You hit - It's 35 to 1 odds. Give yourslef every chance to win there is.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 amazing how good the pattern looked like a week ago on models for this upcoming mid week-weekend and now almost opposite. this is definitely telling me that the models are gonna have huge problems this winter. Don't trust anything 3+ days out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Pro mets owned the models on this storm. Are you serious? It is a week away. Forky may very well be correct, but let's hold off on the congratulating while we're a week away from the event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At the very least I'd be worried about a secondary popping east of the Appalachains considering the neg nao/ao in place. 9 times out of 10, models become more bullish w/ low level CAD and weaken the primary lows w/ a -NAO/AO regime. It could very well be all rain if the trough acquires a neg tilt too early, but when have we ever been confident in D6-7 model projections? If all snow was shown right now I'd be just as concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Agreed. Are you serious? It is a week away. Forky may very well be correct, but let's hold off on the congratulating while we're a week away from the event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Remember the neutral to weak Nina just 2 yrs ago? Almost all models (EC excluded) held a solution from five to eight days out then at hours 60 to 48 bam, models changed, usually in the form of rain that yr. Perhaps we,re seeing Nina model inconsistency again this year, but hrs 144 - still way to far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 it's early in the season and any primary that remains strong will always bring warm air a head of it...Maybe we get lucky like December 1973 with a faster redevelopment along the coast and see some snow or ice?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 At the very least I'd be worried about a secondary popping east of the Appalachains considering the neg nao/ao in place. 9 times out of 10, models become more bullish w/ low level CAD and weaken the primary lows w/ a -NAO/AO regime. It could very well be all rain if the trough acquires a neg tilt too early, but when have we ever been confident in D6-7 model projections? If all snow was shown right now I'd be just as concerned. How about a track like this? Obviously this would not be too well for the big cities...but the means & the ops have been bouncing back and forth to a track similar to something along these lines ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Are you serious? It is a week away. Forky may very well be correct, but let's hold off on the congratulating while we're a week away from the event... Okay. "...so far." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 with an Apps runner like is currently modeled, I would normally expect CAD and some over-running snow to start. BUT, with the SE flow ahead of the Clipper, and the lack of an active STJ, we're dealing with warmer temps and limited moisture on the front end, which probably eliminates all over-running snow potential. I hope I'm wrong though. Of course, that is not to say we don't get snow on the back end if it decides NOT to occlude into W NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Have seen it many times with coastals, waiting for the precip. to change over to snow. But as the precip. ends then the cold air comes rushing in. Probably pretty much what will happen in SE Pa. with reguards to this storm. You need the transfer off the Va. coast for snow in S. Pa. Any farther North its to late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 interestingly enough, Mount Holly puts chc of snow in the grids: Sunday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%. What I'm mainly surprised about is Monday, and that they went all snow. I mean yeah it's 6 days out and just a gridded forecast, but I expected almost all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS says not so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS says not so fast. better neg nao block and more supression I guess block begets block lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 better neg nao block and more supression I guess block begets block lol The first sw digs so fast it misses the early phase with the pv like the euro had. Then the sw digs all the way down to the gulf coast before phasing just in time to prevent the storm from being a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS says not so fast. if you live in binghamton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 So to sum it up... Cold air in. Cold air out. Storm in, rain. Storm out. Cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I do think the burbs of the cities see some snow at the beginning and end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 GFS says not so fast. Yes if you are in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 I do think the burbs of the cities see some snow at the beginning and end of this. Philly rarely gets enough cold for transition to snow before precip cuts off. Typically it's dry then cold around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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