Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Ian, when does GFS MOS come out? I want to compare the winds... wat was the 00z NAM MOS winds? 43 kts? it's updated http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KDCA same as earlier pretty much.. never gets past upper 20s. i want to say the nam could pick up low level winds better and that the gfs #s are partly related to the cutoff at the end comparatively. but they do seem more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 One thing about Isabel, at least from what I remember, the wind-field didn't seem to be quite as expansive as we have with Irene, (Although it did have a big one) and where Isabel tracked it's closest (to us) in South-Central VA, it was over land/weaker than Irene will be when it passes it's closest (to us). Definitely not saying Irene will beat Isabel in winds, after all we're on the back quadrant, but it could end up somewhat similar if models do not trend east. I vaguely remember you are right about this. I also vaguely remember that Isabel's winds overall did not end up as strong as had been predicted, despite all the tree damage. I also vaguely remember that there was far less rain than had been predicted. I think the forecasts were for like 5 to 10 inches, and most of DC got only a couple inches, but it was heavier in the Valley, as that summary noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yes, but I always figure they are overdone. But when I read that summary, we have been fairly saturated lately -- seems like a lot of Isabel damage occurred from trees falling down cause of 50 mph winds blowing on extremely moist soil from earlier storms. Probably close to a similar situation now. But I imagine a lot of our old, dying trees have already been cleared out, after Snowmaggeden, those two severe storm last summer, the wet snowstorm this past January, and that big windstorm we had this spring. Still, interesting, though. Knew Isabel made landfall in NC as well, but didn't realize it was also 100 mph at landfall, just like Irene is. But we are on west side for this one. For Isabel, we were on east. Tough to say snowmageddon will help us - the trees have a lot more area (leaves) to be pushed on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 NAM is around 4.45" at DCA.....maybe overdone?..hard to say where the back edge will park itself....I think QPF guidance should be taken very broadly i like its idea of some heavy totals in the band to the nw of the low but i dunno about the overall orientation. hard to buy into it totally but the euro is in the ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 it's updated http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KDCA same as earlier pretty much.. never gets past upper 20s. i want to say the nam could pick up low level winds better and that the gfs #s are partly related to the cutoff at the end comparatively. but they do seem more reasonable. 30 mph sustained isnt bad. Prob would take the middle, 35 sustained for a lil while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's stunning that basically every model sends the center Irene within a dozen miles of Manhattan on either side. Talk about likely dodging a bullet. If this thing would have blown up into a Cat 4 today, and took that track, it really could have been a near catastrophe up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Topper going low on rain side... interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 For those who care, UKIE at 30 -- heavy heavy rain and maybe good wind? Right over Ocean City http://www.meteociel...h=30&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Tropical Storm Warning Re-Issued AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE LOOSE ITEMS INDOORS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE...AS THEY WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. NEWLY PLANTED OR YOUNG TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 0z GFS is 2.5" at DCA.......I still think the "screw" potential is higher in this case than with something coming from the south or west......not that I really care that much....it is one of the dumbest events to get IMBY over.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0810.html Tor Watch just SE of LWX's WFO... maybe one east of us tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LWX reduced wind gusts down to the Early afternoon adv levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LWX reduced wind gusts down to the Early afternoon adv levels. 30-40 sustained with gusts to 45mph in my zone. Sustained and gusts awfully close together lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Is anybody here located along Garden State Parkway? What's the traffic like? Any problems navigating it with the evac orders? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 30-40 sustained with gusts to 45mph in my zone. Sustained and gusts awfully close together lol Yeah a bit peculiar, I think you could get 50-55mph gusts, 60-65 here east of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 30-40 sustained with gusts to 45mph in my zone. Sustained and gusts awfully close together lol Yeah not sure why that is. LWX has 33-38/G46, so probably avg them out somewhere between the Gusts & Sustained Values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Any News on the new CMC run? I can't get it to load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Any News on the new CMC run? I can't get it to load. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://www.weatherof...t/global_e.html thanks looks kinda wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 euro still hits us good.. 4"+ line about i95 (which may be a hair east).. bends back a bit northwest across northern md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 euro still hits us good.. 4"+ line about i95 (which may be a hair east).. bends back a bit northwest across northern md. Yup... 24 hr location is somewhere near Norfolk... 48 is in NH... CoastalWx said landfall was just east of NYC and looks to scrape NJ coast... wonder where hr 30/36 location points are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yup... 24 hr location is somewhere near Norfolk... 48 is in NH... CoastalWx said landfall was just east of NYC and looks to scrape NJ coast... wonder where hr 30/36 location points are looks like right around southern Delaware and then central nj coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 looks like right around southern Delaware and then central nj coast Sounds like it takes a track that would get it pretty gusty around here, would I be correct? Southern Delaware pretty good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00Z Saturday Euro: Landfall near Morehead City. Then just east of VA Beach to just east of OC. Irene then parallels southern Jersey coast and makes landfall just east of NYC. From there...who cares? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Winds now 90 MPH... Does this thing really stay a hurricane up to NYC? Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LWX Increased wind gusts again, probably in response to the 06z GFS coming west with Irene. NAM winds are less which makes sense (50mph sustained is way too high). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 LWX Increased wind gusts again, probably in response to the 06z GFS coming west with Irene. NAM winds are less which makes sense (50mph sustained is way too high). NWS raised my winds but lowered the gusts a tad. Was 21-25 with gusts to 48. Now 26-33 with gusts to 46. Most significant is the adding of the phrase "some t'storms could be severe" and the reduction to rainfall totals. Now going with max of 1.25 for my area (was closer to 2-3" last night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Do I spy N or even NW movement? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Do I spy N or even NW movement? http://www.ssd.noaa....s/flash-wv.html I was going to ask that myself, but was not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Do I spy N or even NW movement? http://www.ssd.noaa....s/flash-wv.html It definitely seems to look that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.