Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 while counterintuitive in some ways i'd favor the idea of the nam now ... tho im still not sure on the gradient. still, gfs 3"+ dc area east if eyeballing right. never looked great west of the lowlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Mid-Atlantic Banter Thread?! sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 while counterintuitive in some ways i'd favor the idea of the nam now ... tho im still not sure on the gradient. still, gfs 3"+ dc area east if eyeballing right. never looked great west of the lowlands. 2 to 4 inches DC Metro seems a good bet at least. Perhaps up to 6 inches at most if the NAM were right or some training in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Take banter here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Amazing how if these rain totals were snow, we'd be looking at borderline WWA/WSW criteria over much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 while counterintuitive in some ways i'd favor the idea of the nam now ... tho im still not sure on the gradient. still, gfs 3"+ dc area east if eyeballing right. never looked great west of the lowlands. I only vaguely remember Isabel. Is this setting up to be worse at this point? You and Matt have such great weather memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I only vaguely remember Isabel. Is this setting up to be worse at this point? You and Matt have such great weather memory. I'm not Ian - but maybe similar. Certainly not in terms of storm surge...but perhaps winds could get close for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm not Ian - but maybe similar. Certainly not in terms of storm surge...but perhaps winds could get close for a bit. I will have to find my book in which I keep notes of sig DC weather events in that I have experienced, but during Isabel I had a wind gust in the 65 to 70 mph range that took down a huge branch in my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I only vaguely remember Isabel. Is this setting up to be worse at this point? You and Matt have such great weather memory. I'm not Ian, but I think rainfall totals will probably be higher in your area (and many other areas as well) this time around. isabel's rainfall was kind of a disappointment. Wind wise though, Isabel has this one beat (at least in the immediate DC/Baltimore metro). There were sustained winds in the 50's in parts of the area, and the highest gust was either 82 or 83 in MoCo (not sure how accurate that measure was though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm not Ian, but I think rainfall totals will probably be higher in your area (and many other areas as well) this time around. isabel's rainfall was kind of a disappointment. Wind wise though, Isabel has this one beat. There were sustained winds in the 50's in parts of the area, and the highest gust was either 82 or 83 in MoCo (not sure how accurate that measure was though).We were on the east side of Isabel, this time we are on the west side. Makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Amazing how if these rain totals were snow, we'd be looking at borderline WWA/WSW criteria over much of the area. ?????? If you just take the 1" rain is 10" ratio even DC would have 20 to 30" of snow at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 We were on the east side of Isabel, this time we are on the west side. Makes a big difference. Yeah, I know that's the reasoning -- I was just addressing Phineas' question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeanineJ Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Weenies are for the grill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Isabel will probably be worse vs this as far as actual wind speeds go, but power outages may end up very similar if the heavier rains verify. Isabel also had two distinct periods of wind, the biggest gusts hitting overnight, we all slept in the hallway due to the noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I only vaguely remember Isabel. Is this setting up to be worse at this point? You and Matt have such great weather memory. rainfall in Isabel at least in my area was rather light under 2 inches but winds were impressive from the SE. I think Irene could beat in both the wind dept (N, NE) and even moreso in the rain dept. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Isabel will probably be worse vs this as far as actual wind speeds go, but power outages may end up very similar if the heavier rains verify. Isabel also had two distinct periods of wind, the biggest gusts hitting overnight, we all slept in the hallway due to the noise. That happens several times a month at your place, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Here is a good run down of Isabel http://www.weatherbook.com/Isabel_report.htm Doesn't seem as if we could rival this, "In the Washington area, there were several periods of strong winds between 5 p.m. and 1 a.m., interpersed with periods of lesser winds. The strongest wind recorde at a major station was 78 mph at Quantico, followed by 69 mph at Andrews AFB and Patuxent NAS. National Airport clocked a two minute sustained wind of 45 mph, with a peak gust of 58 mph." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 speaking of memories, I remember Gloria in Balto in 85. Mostly N, NE, NW winds were stiff and heavy heavy rainfall around 7 inches. With a storm this big and powerful I think rainfall will be plentiful regardless of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 what does UKMET show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Here is a good run down of Isabel http://www.weatherbook.com/Isabel_report.htm Doesn't seem as if we could rival this, "In the Washington area, there were several periods of strong winds between 5 p.m. and 1 a.m., interpersed with periods of lesser winds. The strongest wind recorde at a major station was 78 mph at Quantico, followed by 69 mph at Andrews AFB and Patuxent NAS. National Airport clocked a two minute sustained wind of 45 mph, with a peak gust of 58 mph." Aren't the current NWS forecasts fairly close to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 what does UKMET show? Open wave hitting Spain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 what does UKMET show? West into PHL/NJ I hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeanineJ Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Memory - Drove to OC for Isabel, on the way back the bay bridge was closed moments after we crossed, and I wouldn't believe it if it didn't happen to me, but my Saturn L300 lifted slightly off the roadway with a wind gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Aren't the current NWS forecasts fairly close to this? Yes, but I always figure they are overdone. But when I read that summary, we have been fairly saturated lately -- seems like a lot of Isabel damage occurred from trees falling down cause of 50 mph winds blowing on extremely moist soil from earlier storms. Probably close to a similar situation now. But I imagine a lot of our old, dying trees have already been cleared out, after Snowmaggeden, those two severe storm last summer, the wet snowstorm this past January, and that big windstorm we had this spring. Still, interesting, though. Knew Isabel made landfall in NC as well, but didn't realize it was also 100 mph at landfall, just like Irene is. But we are on west side for this one. For Isabel, we were on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 I only vaguely remember Isabel. Is this setting up to be worse at this point? You and Matt have such great weather memory. I wasn't here for Isabel. I'm more skeptical on the wind than rain I think. Tho the gradient is really tight on every model at least to DC for now I think the track is more or less locked in through our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Ian, when does GFS MOS come out? I want to compare the winds... wat was the 00z NAM MOS winds? 43 kts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 The thing is if we get several inches of rain then a punch of wind at the end as per NAM it's going to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I wonder about Baltimore tomorrow night. They have already had like 3 or 4 flash floods in the past two weeks. If one of Irene's good rain band sets up over it, got to imagine it wouldn't take much for a bigger repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 One thing about Isabel, at least from what I remember, the wind-field didn't seem to be quite as expansive as we have with Irene, (Although it did have a big one) and where Isabel tracked it's closest (to us) in South-Central VA, it was over land/weaker than Irene will be when it passes it's closest (to us). Definitely not saying Irene will beat Isabel in winds, after all we're on the back quadrant, but it could end up somewhat similar if models do not trend east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NAM is around 4.45" at DCA.....maybe overdone?..hard to say where the back edge will park itself....I think QPF guidance should be taken very broadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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