yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 psssh, BB > HoCoSNowBo. at hr 30 GFS in the exact same position as 18z just a bit stronger. QPF is cut down quite a bit this run, but winds look higher at panel 4 Its 3 to 4 inches of rain along I-95... more east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Based of this run of the GFS -- WINTER CANCEL Ian, can you just suspend these bozos for the duration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 PEPCO already has some isolated outages. They should aim to not go into the storm with any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yup.. by 8 am SUN GFS is just about gone with Irene from our area Before that.. The 6z panel has consistently been less SW of the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Weenie question... winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Ian, can you just suspend these bozos for the duration? second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's definitely too giddy lately. Focus more on good wx talk..<br><br><br>edit: plz dont make me bring main forum rules here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It's definitely too giddy lately. Focus more on good wx talk..<br><br><br>edit: plz dont make me bring main forum rules here Mid-Atlantic Banter Thread?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Weenies taking over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 while counterintuitive in some ways i'd favor the idea of the nam now ... tho im still not sure on the gradient. still, gfs 3"+ dc area east if eyeballing right. never looked great west of the lowlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Mid-Atlantic Banter Thread?! sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 while counterintuitive in some ways i'd favor the idea of the nam now ... tho im still not sure on the gradient. still, gfs 3"+ dc area east if eyeballing right. never looked great west of the lowlands. 2 to 4 inches DC Metro seems a good bet at least. Perhaps up to 6 inches at most if the NAM were right or some training in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Take banter here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Amazing how if these rain totals were snow, we'd be looking at borderline WWA/WSW criteria over much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 while counterintuitive in some ways i'd favor the idea of the nam now ... tho im still not sure on the gradient. still, gfs 3"+ dc area east if eyeballing right. never looked great west of the lowlands. I only vaguely remember Isabel. Is this setting up to be worse at this point? You and Matt have such great weather memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I only vaguely remember Isabel. Is this setting up to be worse at this point? You and Matt have such great weather memory. I'm not Ian - but maybe similar. Certainly not in terms of storm surge...but perhaps winds could get close for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm not Ian - but maybe similar. Certainly not in terms of storm surge...but perhaps winds could get close for a bit. I will have to find my book in which I keep notes of sig DC weather events in that I have experienced, but during Isabel I had a wind gust in the 65 to 70 mph range that took down a huge branch in my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I only vaguely remember Isabel. Is this setting up to be worse at this point? You and Matt have such great weather memory. I'm not Ian, but I think rainfall totals will probably be higher in your area (and many other areas as well) this time around. isabel's rainfall was kind of a disappointment. Wind wise though, Isabel has this one beat (at least in the immediate DC/Baltimore metro). There were sustained winds in the 50's in parts of the area, and the highest gust was either 82 or 83 in MoCo (not sure how accurate that measure was though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm not Ian, but I think rainfall totals will probably be higher in your area (and many other areas as well) this time around. isabel's rainfall was kind of a disappointment. Wind wise though, Isabel has this one beat. There were sustained winds in the 50's in parts of the area, and the highest gust was either 82 or 83 in MoCo (not sure how accurate that measure was though).We were on the east side of Isabel, this time we are on the west side. Makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Amazing how if these rain totals were snow, we'd be looking at borderline WWA/WSW criteria over much of the area. ?????? If you just take the 1" rain is 10" ratio even DC would have 20 to 30" of snow at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 We were on the east side of Isabel, this time we are on the west side. Makes a big difference. Yeah, I know that's the reasoning -- I was just addressing Phineas' question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeanineJ Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Weenies are for the grill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Isabel will probably be worse vs this as far as actual wind speeds go, but power outages may end up very similar if the heavier rains verify. Isabel also had two distinct periods of wind, the biggest gusts hitting overnight, we all slept in the hallway due to the noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I only vaguely remember Isabel. Is this setting up to be worse at this point? You and Matt have such great weather memory. rainfall in Isabel at least in my area was rather light under 2 inches but winds were impressive from the SE. I think Irene could beat in both the wind dept (N, NE) and even moreso in the rain dept. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Isabel will probably be worse vs this as far as actual wind speeds go, but power outages may end up very similar if the heavier rains verify. Isabel also had two distinct periods of wind, the biggest gusts hitting overnight, we all slept in the hallway due to the noise. That happens several times a month at your place, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Here is a good run down of Isabel http://www.weatherbook.com/Isabel_report.htm Doesn't seem as if we could rival this, "In the Washington area, there were several periods of strong winds between 5 p.m. and 1 a.m., interpersed with periods of lesser winds. The strongest wind recorde at a major station was 78 mph at Quantico, followed by 69 mph at Andrews AFB and Patuxent NAS. National Airport clocked a two minute sustained wind of 45 mph, with a peak gust of 58 mph." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 speaking of memories, I remember Gloria in Balto in 85. Mostly N, NE, NW winds were stiff and heavy heavy rainfall around 7 inches. With a storm this big and powerful I think rainfall will be plentiful regardless of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 what does UKMET show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Here is a good run down of Isabel http://www.weatherbook.com/Isabel_report.htm Doesn't seem as if we could rival this, "In the Washington area, there were several periods of strong winds between 5 p.m. and 1 a.m., interpersed with periods of lesser winds. The strongest wind recorde at a major station was 78 mph at Quantico, followed by 69 mph at Andrews AFB and Patuxent NAS. National Airport clocked a two minute sustained wind of 45 mph, with a peak gust of 58 mph." Aren't the current NWS forecasts fairly close to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 what does UKMET show? Open wave hitting Spain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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