BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 if we get a big feeder band through it's not a non threat but it might be borderline for a watch etc Something earlier in the storm like the ARW/NMW show before the steady stuff hits? I always thought the right front quadrant was where most of the tornadic risk resides in a system, especially if it is undergoing transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 oh hai der 00z RGEM at 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 repost: 0z NAM MOS 43 sustained at DCA 12z sunday WTF! I wonder what gusts would be lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like a big jog towards the east? http://www.ssd.noaa....2/flash-wv.html Looks more like wobbledy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like there's a band slowly moving towards OC from the SE....could get there within the next few hours depending on its exact speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If LWX is right on the wind forecast (30-40mph with 60mph gusts), there are bound to be power outages, very "Isabel-esque" wind-cast by LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If LWX is right on the wind forecast (30-40mph with 60mph gusts), there are bound to be power outages, very "Isabel-esque" wind-cast by LWX. I'm guessing the top gust I will see is 48mph but I could see a rogue gust popping up somewhere. I'm fairly confident that you will see a 800mph gust at some point during the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If the 00z GFS goes west (we shall see in 10-15 mins) wonder what LWX will do in its new HLS... increase rain and wind? new HLS comes out after midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If the 00z GFS goes west (we shall see in 10-15 mins) wonder what LWX will do in its new HLS... increase rain and wind? new HLS comes out after midnight GFS will crash so you cannot view it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 RGEM 36 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_036.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not sure why the NNE movenent is being brought up, 18z GFS forecasted the NNE movement, as did the ECMWF and GGEM, between 18z and 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 RGEM 36 -- http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_036.jpg Nice late August day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not sure why the NNE movenent is being brought up, 18z GFS forecasted the NNE movement, as did the ECMWF and GGEM, between 18z and 00z. Thanks for posting that. I hadn't been looking at the 6 hour positions, only the position closest to us. The NE movement is definitely there, although it is hard to pinpoint the center on the sat images. I don't think it's a wobble either as it has been pretty evident for the past few hours. It's gonna be fun to see how it all plays out for you guys. I feel like we are going to be teased with good rains back here but only enough to make us talk about what could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 00z GFS a bit slower thru 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 WTF! I wonder what gusts would be lol Probably not as much higher as they'd be in a windstorm like we had earlier in the year. Though it is interesting to see the max at the tail end. HM actually mentioned that the other day in "shout" at DBM, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 we've got weather coming finally.. let's not talk school closings right now. or kenny, start a school closing thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 we've got weather coming finally.. let's not talk school closings right now. or kenny, start a school closing thread. Why me?!?! lol did I do that in the past...oh yeah I think I did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Probably not as much higher as they'd be in a windstorm like we had earlier in the year. Though it is interesting to see the max at the tail end. HM actually mentioned that the other day in "shout" at DBM, heh. Maybe a factor of the actual storm winds combining with the p-grad winds? I might have no idea what I'm talking about, tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS = Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 we've got weather coming finally Seriously -- "finally." A million slight risk outlook days where we get a few pop up storms that last 10 minutes (and miss most) just doesn't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS = Meh. Keep us posted, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 you guys gotta wait for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS = Meh. Storm Cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS Pwnage at 30hr...gradient is a bit tighter than 18z over DC/BAlti corridor. Less rain in the previous frame but looks a bit windier at 30hrs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 GFS Pwnage at 30hr...gradient is a bit tighter than 18z over DC/BAlti corridor. Less rain in the previous frame but looks a bit windier at 30hrs in. BB vs HoCoSnowBo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I guess the GFS sucks if you wanted 6 inches of rain vs 4 inches of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 the gfs has consistently shut it down earlier than the euro and now the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 the gfs has consistently shut it down earlier than the euro and now the nam. Who will be right is the question? Perhaps a compromise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 BB vs HoCoSnowBo psssh, BB > HoCoSnowBo. at hr 30 GFS in the exact same position as 18z just a bit stronger. QPF is cut down quite a bit this run, but winds look higher at panel 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 the gfs has consistently shut it down earlier than the euro and now the nam. Yup.. by 8 am SUN GFS is just about gone with Irene from our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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