Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)

[yoda]

Did LWX up our winds? I see on wunderground the forecast for Arlington now calls for gusts up to 60mph.

Yes. Fairfax went from 45 to 60 I believe

[smokeybandit]

I have no idea who this guy is, but his comments are getting some run on drudgereport:

"The storm cannot master its own strength."

Dr. Simon Atkins CEO, Advanced Forecasting Corporation [AFC] August 26, 2011

The hype over Hurricane Irene is overblown, predicts the CEO of Advanced Forecasting Corporation.

"North of Delaware, most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds."

o The demise of Irene has already begun. There is no visible eye. The storm intensity is down to 99 mph. This would be a low-end category 2 or a strong category 1 storm, while 36 hours ago some predicted a catastrophic category 4 storm. Air Force Reserve aircraft have found that Irene's eyewall has collapsed, and the central pressure has risen -- rising pressure means a weakening storm.

o The reduction in storm intensity likely confirms that this storm is not going to be as monstrous as it has been publicly forecast to be.

o Yes, it will be windy. However, north of Delaware most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.

o At Advanced Forecasting Corporation, we are concentrating on the surging waters which typically cause over 85% of the loss of life in hurricanes. We have modeled the following predictions:

1) There will be wind damage over eastern-most North Carolina as well as some storm surge flooding up the Pamlico Sound. Some houses in the Hamptons will be flooded and destroyed. Flooding might occur in New York's Battery Park Subway station and on the FDR Drive since the city could get up to 8 inches of rain. There may be some New England neighborhoods submerged due to rivers overflowing.

2) With 90% confidence, we predict a total damage bill below $1 billion. Unless there is an unexpected secondary or tertiary event, this is not going to be a huge-loss storm.

o Our internal modeling uses genetic algorithms to emphasize the weaknesses of storms. Remember that storms are energy. Just like people, they all have their own personalities. From the get-go, Irene was not a power storm. Her goal was to become wide, not internally powerful. Personified further, the storm became too big too quickly and it cannot master its own strength.

[TradeWinds]

Yes. Fairfax went from 45 to 60 I believe

Is that sustained or gusts? Even here in Frederick, we went from 36 to 48 for gusts.

[chris87]

I have no idea who this guy is, but his comments are getting some run on drudgereport:

"The storm cannot master its own strength."

Dr. Simon Atkins CEO, Advanced Forecasting Corporation [AFC] August 26, 2011

The hype over Hurricane Irene is overblown, predicts the CEO of Advanced Forecasting Corporation.

"North of Delaware, most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds."

o The demise of Irene has already begun. There is no visible eye. The storm intensity is down to 99 mph. This would be a low-end category 2 or a strong category 1 storm, while 36 hours ago some predicted a catastrophic category 4 storm. Air Force Reserve aircraft have found that Irene's eyewall has collapsed, and the central pressure has risen -- rising pressure means a weakening storm.

o The reduction in storm intensity likely confirms that this storm is not going to be as monstrous as it has been publicly forecast to be.

o Yes, it will be windy. However, north of Delaware most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.

o At Advanced Forecasting Corporation, we are concentrating on the surging waters which typically cause over 85% of the loss of life in hurricanes. We have modeled the following predictions:

1) There will be wind damage over eastern-most North Carolina as well as some storm surge flooding up the Pamlico Sound. Some houses in the Hamptons will be flooded and destroyed. Flooding might occur in New York's Battery Park Subway station and on the FDR Drive since the city could get up to 8 inches of rain. There may be some New England neighborhoods submerged due to rivers overflowing.

2) With 90% confidence, we predict a total damage bill below $1 billion. Unless there is an unexpected secondary or tertiary event, this is not going to be a huge-loss storm.

o Our internal modeling uses genetic algorithms to emphasize the weaknesses of storms. Remember that storms are energy. Just like people, they all have their own personalities. From the get-go, Irene was not a power storm. Her goal was to become wide, not internally powerful. Personified further, the storm became too big too quickly and it cannot master its own strength.

Here's a snippet from his bio (in other words...a crackpot):

"a PhD from CCNH in biometeoelectromagnetics, a study of how natural and human-caused magnetic shifts on the planet cause climate shifts and affect our health. He will obtain his second doctorate, a DSc, in alternative medicine, in October 2011. Simon is writing a book called "Skyaia", to be published in November 2011"

[Kmlwx]

Did new model data come out? I went out to dinner and came back to 55mph wind gusts in my zone forecast......

[Ian]

many of the pts are actually probably right but sort of as with katrina (then it was wind that was hyped instead of surge) this one may perform enough on the flooding scale  (especially phl/nyc north which is already soaked) to mask it a bit. if it gets "bad" people tend to forget that it's not the "bad" planned on.

[yoda]

Did new model data come out? I went out to dinner and came back to 55mph wind gusts in my zone forecast......

18z GFS nudged west... no idea what the 18z GFDL did... 18z HWRF I heard went into W LI and was west up there so I guess it was west down here.

But yes, the zones increased their gusts

[yoda]

Is that sustained or gusts? Even here in Frederick, we went from 36 to 48 for gusts.

Gusts

[TUweathermanDD]

18z GFS nudged west... no idea what the 18z GFDL did... 18z HWRF I heard went into W LI and was west up there so I guess it was west down here.

But yes, the zones increased their gusts

GFDL took it on NHC track to over OCMD, then randomly turns it NW up into E of Philly. Btw, I think the zones are about right now, Eastern Baltimore should get some 60+mph gusts.

[Sparky]

If the models are suggesting a westward move that puts Ocean City back in the direct path, or even slightly east of the eye.

[Kmlwx]

GFDL took it on NHC track to over OCMD, then randomly turns it NW up into E of Philly. Btw, I think the zones are about right now, Eastern Baltimore should get some 60+mph gusts.

Gusts might be a bit high back this way - but I'm sure we can manage a rogue gust or two lol.

[WVclimo]

Pretty cool marine forecast from LWX for the lower Bay near Crisfield, Md:

FORECASTS OF WAVE HEIGHTS DO NOT INCLUDE EFFECTS OF WIND DIRECTION RELATIVE TO TIDAL CURRENTS. EXPECT HIGHER WAVES WHEN WINDS ARE BLOWING AGAINST THE TIDAL FLOW.

Tonight...E winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms...mainly after midnight.

Sat...Tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane conditions possible. E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt...becoming NE 30 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Waves 7 ft. Showers with tstms likely in the morning...then showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.

Sat Night...Hurricane conditions expected. NE winds 55 to 65 kt... Becoming NW 50 to 70 kt after midnight. Waves 8 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.

Sun...Tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane conditions possible. NW winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts to 55 kt...diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt in the afternoon. Waves 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.

[BlizzardNole]

Re the increased winds in the zone forecasts - could it be (ironically) that the storm is weakening, and the wind fields of weakening tropical cyclones tend to spread out?

[PhineasC]

I still don't exactly see why there's excitement for DC still rumbling around. 2inches over 12 hours? We've gotten 2 inches of rain in a brief 45min thunderstorm before! Same with gusts of wind circa 30mph. Maybe there's excitement for the east trend being wrong? All I'm clinging to is nowcasting springing a nice DC surprise.....But this is looking much ado about nothing. (Thankfully I won't be online if I turn out to be wrong and power does go out )

Yeah, super common to get severe thunderstorm conditions for 8 hours straight. Good post and welcome to the board!

[WxUSAF]

o Our internal modeling uses genetic algorithms to emphasize the weaknesses of storms. Remember that storms are energy. Just like people, they all have their own personalities. From the get-go, Irene was not a power storm. Her goal was to become wide, not internally powerful. Personified further, the storm became too big too quickly and it cannot master its own strength.

Had me going until this load of blah-be-de-blah-blah garbage.

Here's a snippet from his bio (in other words...a crackpot):

"a PhD from CCNH in biometeoelectromagnetics, a study of how natural and human-caused magnetic shifts on the planet cause climate shifts and affect our health. He will obtain his second doctorate, a DSc, in alternative medicine, in October 2011. Simon is writing a book called "Skyaia", to be published in November 2011"

The internet was the best thing to ever happen to crazy people.

[Kmlwx]

Yeah, super common to get severe thunderstorm conditions for 8 hours straight. Good post and welcome to the board!

I think it's funny that the newer posters that make posts like that always seem to have long usernames.

[pojrzsho]

I have no idea who this guy is, but his comments are getting some run on drudgereport:

"The storm cannot master its own strength."

Dr. Simon Atkins CEO, Advanced Forecasting Corporation [AFC] August 26, 2011

The hype over Hurricane Irene is overblown, predicts the CEO of Advanced Forecasting Corporation.

"North of Delaware, most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds."

o The demise of Irene has already begun. There is no visible eye. The storm intensity is down to 99 mph. This would be a low-end category 2 or a strong category 1 storm, while 36 hours ago some predicted a catastrophic category 4 storm. Air Force Reserve aircraft have found that Irene's eyewall has collapsed, and the central pressure has risen -- rising pressure means a weakening storm.

o The reduction in storm intensity likely confirms that this storm is not going to be as monstrous as it has been publicly forecast to be.

o Yes, it will be windy. However, north of Delaware most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.

o At Advanced Forecasting Corporation, we are concentrating on the surging waters which typically cause over 85% of the loss of life in hurricanes. We have modeled the following predictions:

1) There will be wind damage over eastern-most North Carolina as well as some storm surge flooding up the Pamlico Sound. Some houses in the Hamptons will be flooded and destroyed. Flooding might occur in New York's Battery Park Subway station and on the FDR Drive since the city could get up to 8 inches of rain. There may be some New England neighborhoods submerged due to rivers overflowing.

2) With 90% confidence, we predict a total damage bill below $1 billion. Unless there is an unexpected secondary or tertiary event, this is not going to be a huge-loss storm.

o Our internal modeling uses genetic algorithms to emphasize the weaknesses of storms. Remember that storms are energy. Just like people, they all have their own personalities. From the get-go, Irene was not a power storm. Her goal was to become wide, not internally powerful. Personified further, the storm became too big too quickly and it cannot master its own strength.

Headline grabber......Easy to say now when it never got to Cat 4 strength

[WxUSAF]

This nutjobber got his degree from the Clayton College of Natural Health. A nonaccredited school.

http://www.quackwatch.org/04ConsumerEducation/Nonrecorg/clayton.html

Calling him a "forecaster" is like calling an acupuncturist a oncologist.

[Bodhi Cove]

Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 71. North wind 34 to 39 mph increasing to between 36 and 46 mph. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible.

Trees in this area snapped when a 57 mph gust came through during Isabel at 1:00 a.m. Just for the record; it's quite unerving to wrangle a boat with only one line left attached, during 45 mph sustained winds, in the dark, and wondering if the wind gusts are going to break something loose and either impale you or knock you out cold.

At least in daylight you can see the flying debris.

[weathercoins]

Wow, check out Carolina Beach in NC just before dark. http://ow.ly/i/gl5E

[Fozz]

Looks like a substantial western shift in the NAM at 24 hrs.

[DCWeatherGuy]

Looks like a substantial western shift in the NAM at 24 hrs.

I know the NAM sucks for tropical storms, but at 24 hrs it's got to be pretty decent, no?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Yeah I'm thinking hour 30 is gonna be wet for our area. Look how much further west the precip extended at 24.

[MDstorm]

Looks like a substantial western shift in the NAM at 24 hrs.

I guess I'm going to have to bring the deck furniture inside after all.

MDstorm

[Fozz]

I know the NAM sucks for tropical storms, but at 24 hrs it's got to be pretty decent, no?

WOW

[real]

wow. would be nice

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Yeah big shift at 30 sim radar has an intense band all through MD, DC, NOVA

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Already at 3 inches and still raining hard at 30 in DC.

[usedtobe]

It's now more in line with the euro amounts. That also probably means there will be some nice gusts within the bands though the precip looks to be associated with the formation of a weak frontal boundary.

[Ian]

Of course.. NAM in range.