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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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i agree. i was just playing around since everyone has been so down on our chances. i've been on the "rain train" for a while now. it's still perilous but i want to say the gfs is wrong with the western cutoff. it'll be sharp somewhere but i think further west than it shows. the euro now has like 5 runs showing DC in 4"+ so it would be one of those epic euro busts we'll talk about for some time if it doesnt happen.

I'd take a Euro bust since DT has been extolling its virtues.

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DC has apparently run out off the free sandbags they had been handing out. Alexandria too. Very high demand, at one point resulting in a traffic jams around the distribution point in DC

I work for the government, often defend it too as I see the hard work of very smart people put to practical and abstract use.

But this sandbag thing is a ridiculous waste of time, energy and money. What is the purpose of 3-5 sandbags? I could use them as weights for my cornhole boards but not fight off non existent flood waters.

Granted there will be some minor flooding but five sandbags wouldn't help anyway.

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DC has apparently run out off the free sandbags they had been handing out. Alexandria too. Very high demand, at one point resulting in a traffic jams around the distribution point in DC

no wonder everyone makes fun of us

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Well it clearly busted on strength it would seem. I wonder if he still expects a cat 4 into nc

Calling for such a strong strong storm would be an extremely rare event but would put you on the map if you were right. The 18Z GFS looks a little west of its old position and west with its precip axis. I'm not really surprised as I think its precip is closer now to the euro and even 18Z nam which had me in 3 or 4 inches.

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people hate climo so much but it almost always wins. i cant believe people actually convinced themselves a cat2/3 was going to hit ny/sne

i'll give you climo won on intensity...but climo would have also would say a TC at this point would be in the process of recurving...so let's call it a split decision....i'd say most of the guidance has been pretty good for the past few days forecasting what is an anomalous track....i'd much rather over forecast intensity and correctly forecast track...then correctly forecast intensity and have forecasts errors of 300 km too far to the east, leading to an non-forecast landfall

on a completely unrelated note....wrt to models and their accuracy...one way to humble a weenie or even some red-tagger you'd respect would be to lock them in a room, hand them a 200mb / 500 mb / 700 mb / 850 mb / sfc analysis and ask them to draw a 24/48/72 hour forecast map....hell people should just try it for fun...

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