usedtobe Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 4"+ in a stripe about 20 miles west of dc to the shore by 12z Thanks, I just got back from golfing and looked at the euro. It looked farther west than the gfs. I've got my gas, checked my generator, went to the liquor store for wine. I'm ready for the storm. The euro looks like I was lose power for sure, the gfs (meh), I'd probably lose it since I have BGE but it doesn't look as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 stalled front interacting with moisture being pushed north. it's been pretty well modeled... it could still act as a boundary going forward tho Looks like we may have a little fun before the main event. Plenty of daytime heating. Showers now popping up closer to D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FWIW 15z SREFs... looks rainy wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 CNN track graphic recently showed the track offshore MD/DE instead of right over, grazing Jersey, and sort of to the right/east of NYC. Not sure what prompted the "east jog" track but Hate to see it. NBC has had that track as well since this morning. I guess unless the path changes noticeably by the public, 100 miles or so, there's no point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looking at the satellite view for the US, I just don't see how this doesn't get swept out by the trough in the center of the country. Can anyone explain? It looks like it would end up east of where it's modeled based on current images, at least for latitudes north of the VA/NC border. Isn't that the mechanism that isn't allowing it to go right out to sea? At least that's what I've gathered from reading the discussion past few days. Looks like we may have a little fun before the main event. Plenty of daytime heating. Showers now popping up closer to D.C. Doubt we get anything too strong. See LWX discussion. Probably some heavy rainers if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 wow Seems good for at least 2 inches. Lots of spread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 nice.. sounds about right. at least till someone reminds us of dec 26 again... But they don't have much choice, the euro is pretty darn good and it is really wet. Some here may be good enough to say the storm is going to nudge farther east and be like the gfs or even be east of the gfs but knowing how hard it is to beat the Euro and knowing the srefs have a lot fo members giving more rain than the gfs, LWX is in a pickle. It's better to go for the heavier amounts and hope for the lighter ones then go with the lighter amounts and then have flooding. Besides, I could see either the GFS or Euro being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 But they don't have much choice, the euro is pretty darn good and it is really wet. Some here may be good enough to say the storm is going to nudge farther east and be like the gfs or even be east of the gfs but knowing how hard it is to beat the Euro and knowing the srefs have a lot fo members giving more rain than the gfs, LWX is in a pickle. It's better to go for the heavier amounts and hope for the lighter ones then go with the lighter amounts and then have flooding. Besides, I could see either the GFS or Euro being right. i agree. i was just playing around since everyone has been so down on our chances. i've been on the "rain train" for a while now. it's still perilous but i want to say the gfs is wrong with the western cutoff. it'll be sharp somewhere but i think further west than it shows. the euro now has like 5 runs showing DC in 4"+ so it would be one of those epic euro busts we'll talk about for some time if it doesnt happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z NAM def west with precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i agree. i was just playing around since everyone has been so down on our chances. i've been on the "rain train" for a while now. it's still perilous but i want to say the gfs is wrong with the western cutoff. it'll be sharp somewhere but i think further west than it shows. the euro now has like 5 runs showing DC in 4"+ so it would be one of those epic euro busts we'll talk about for some time if it doesnt happen. I'm thinking the Blue Ridge is where a decent sharp cutoff sets up - maybe like a reverse mountain effect lol - finally we can get back at those mountains for eating our precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I can see Frederick Co. maybe even Hagerstown east getting decent rainfall of several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm thinking the Blue Ridge is where a decent sharp cutoff sets up - maybe like a reverse mountain effect lol - finally we can get back at those mountains for eating our precip. Its 3/1/09 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z NAM def west with precip shield actually, I think its lighter than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Arlington County Declares Local Emergency Arlington County Acting County Manager Marsha Allgeier today signed a Declaration of Local Emergency for Arlington County in response to Hurricane Irene. http://goo.gl/bVyUO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On Amtrak south to Virginia Beach (yeah I just had to chase this) and it's eerily quiet. Still sunny and calm wind. A fun next 24 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone have any thoughts on whether we might have a period of strengthening before landfall? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html I recall hurricanes in the past suddenly strengthening as they near the coast. Gulf stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On Amtrak south to Virginia Beach (yeah I just had to chase this) and it's eerily quiet. Still sunny and calm wind. A fun next 24 hours! no need to chase it dude, its coming, just worst down there stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 nynjpaweather Steven DiMartino This should lead to a period of intensification, perhaps rapid intensification this evening.2 minutes agonynjpaweather Steven DiMartino Studying all the data, I am becoming confident that Irene is driving the dry air out of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 lol.. now everyone has to hope to hell it reintensifies so the catastrophic forecasts up the coast have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 On Amtrak south to Virginia Beach (yeah I just had to chase this) and it's eerily quiet. Still sunny and calm wind. A fun next 24 hours! nice.. not a bad idea. say hi to rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 lol.. now everyone has to hope to hell it reintensifies so the catastrophic forecasts up the coast have a chance Otherwise, NWS can expect massive cuts. "Another failed government agency" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Otherwise, NWS can expect massive cuts. "Another failed government agency" people hate climo so much but it almost always wins. i cant believe people actually convinced themselves a cat2/3 was going to hit ny/sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 people hate climo so much but it almost always wins. i cant believe people actually convinced themselves a cat2/3 was going to hit ny/sne I hope there's at least a small sliver left of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 people hate climo so much but it almost always wins. i cant believe people actually convinced themselves a cat2/3 was going to hit ny/sne Yup, and just a healthy respect for the history of hurricane intensity forecasting helps as well. Isabel was forecasted to regain Cat 3 strength before landfall. Floyd wasn't forecasted to drop down in strength so quickly before landfall. Gustav, Ike, etc. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I can confirm that Giant on Old Keene Mill and Rolling Road is out of bottled water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 lol..DC mayor to Declare State of Emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 lol..DC mayor to Declare State of Emergency. No one wants Irene to be their Katrina... It's all about reelection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No one wants Irene to be their Katrina... It's all about reelection. Didn't Mayor Nagin get reelected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Didn't Mayor Nagin get reelected? I think so. Not sure why he did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yup, and just a healthy respect for the history of hurricane intensity forecasting helps as well. Isabel was forecasted to regain Cat 3 strength before landfall. Floyd wasn't forecasted to drop down in strength so quickly before landfall. Gustav, Ike, etc. etc. Isabel gave us plenty even though she weakened....A few pics from my street in Old Town Alexandria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.