WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I didn't say I didn't like it or that I didn't want to learn it, I just don't understand it at this point. I was just looking for an answer to a simple question. Please accept my apology for my original stupid post. Glad to see you want to learn it. Lots of opportunity on here for that. I suggest if you don't know a term you google it, and that will often give you both an answer and a source to that particular type of information. But as for your original question...weather.gov is the best source. I'd say 90% or more of the mets (and non-mets) on this board use it all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's due to a poor economy and lousy product. Heathen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Fist bump for you! Agree. We're a bit far from the jet streak. Central PA up into eastern NY probably a bit more favorable. But, we're certainly in the running. that perked my ears up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 that perked my ears up I wouldn't get too perky...I just learned about these things today. But based on that presentation Forky posted...yeah, Central PA certainly in a prime spot for this to occur (if it occurs at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeromus-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 you're good make the money now; the hurricane party drunks should tip better you won't get a chance to play for a while in VAB what instrument do you play, if any? That's my theory and the bar's theory, too. My only concern is winds increasing and VDOT closing the bridges and the tunnels. I don't know what time winds are supposed to really pick up in this area; I'm at work and have no live news broadcast available so this is my only real outlet to follow information (posting/reading from my phone). I'm playing drums tonight, so my instruments are at least pretty water resistant, but we will be towing a 5x8 single-axle trailer, and I don't particularly want to watch all our crap get blown into the Atlantic Ocean. The stage is indoors obviously but the bar is still making the "it's on" call and we're really on the fence about that one. If we're looking at some rain and ~30mph winds, I don't care, we'll get paid. If we're going to be 20mi from the eye at that point, I'd much rather stay home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't know anymore about them then what I just learned in that presentation, so take that into account... Seems like moisture from the TC overruns a frontal boundary and with the interaction (lift) from the right-rear portion of the jet you can get very heavy rain over a limited area. TC: check Stalled frontal boundary to our south: check Right-rear portion of a jet max: check http://www.hpc.ncep..../sfc/90fwbg.gif Your loss...more delicious nuggets for me! Hmmm. Could that be the beginnings of some PRE down by Salisbury, MD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 just change the airport code http://www.nws.noaa....met.pl?sta=KDCA Thanks. My quick analysis (from the bias as a pilot, not a Met), is that the DCA one is scewy. BAL is about 6k less, but gusts much higher, IAD in the high 20s. I 'm not inclined to believe a solution where DCA has more wind than BAL given the relative longitude. But, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's my theory and the bar's theory, too. My only concern is winds increasing and VDOT closing the bridges and the tunnels. I don't know what time winds are supposed to really pick up in this area; I'm at work and have no live news broadcast available so this is my only real outlet to follow information (posting/reading from my phone). I'm playing drums tonight, so my instruments are at least pretty water resistant, but we will be towing a 5x8 single-axle trailer, and I don't particularly want to watch all our crap get blown into the Atlantic Ocean. The stage is indoors obviously but the bar is still making the "it's on" call and we're really on the fence about that one. If we're looking at some rain and ~30mph winds, I don't care, we'll get paid. If we're going to be 20mi from the eye at that point, I'd much rather stay home. Per weather.gov: Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Scattered rain and thunderstorms, then rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a low around 76. East wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to between 32 and 37 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Even if this came west and tracked inland, it would still flood us and be breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeromus-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per weather.gov: Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Scattered rain and thunderstorms, then rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a low around 76. East wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to between 32 and 37 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. I've been playing around with their maps, and yeah, it looks like we'll want to be out of there between the 2 AM and 5 AM forecasts, which wouldn't be a problem. A little risky, but I don't think it's suicide or anything. Thanks guys. I'll throw a webcam out the window looking at the beach and live stream what it looks like out here if they've got wifi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe the Dixie Midnight Runners will make a comeback with: "Come On Irene" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So apparently they're evacuating all of Kent Island... I've been in meetings all day - are we still expecting just 3-5ft surge? I don't think the flooding will be as bad as Isabel due to the track not coming right into the bay but going up the coast... Someone correct me if I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 LWX going gung-ho with the FFW update at 1 pm THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL... CALVERT...CHARLES...HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE AND ST. MARYS. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...FAIRFAX...KING GEORGE...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...SPOTSYLVANIA AND STAFFORD. * FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING * HEAVY RAINS FROM HURRICANE IRENE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARD OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe the Dixie Midnight Runners will make a comeback with: "Come On Irene" Good try....It's Dexys Midnight Runners (they are not from the southern USA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Leesburg QPF Euro 3 inches GFS .42 wtf? Divide the 3 by the .42 and then subtract 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 LWX going gung-ho with the FFW update at 1 pm nice.. sounds about right. at least till someone reminds us of dec 26 again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 nice.. sounds about right. at least till someone reminds us of dec 26 again... I don't see a reason why a good chunk of us can't get to 3 inches or over. The wind is a different question IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't see a reason why a good chunk of us can't get to 3 inches or over. The wind is a different question IMO. yeah we'll see.. the wind trend seems to be up moer than down lately, so could be a "surprise" safe bet it wont be the main story here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yeah we'll see.. the wind trend seems to be up moer than down lately, so could be a "surprise" safe bet it wont be the main story here though Although - If we get real soaked and mushy ground and then one or two 45mph gusts - people will think the wind was insanely strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo5252 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Uggh, just stacked about 1,000 sandbags along houses on the bay here in Calvert County, but for some reason I think it is going to take a little more than sandbags for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I wouldn't get too perky...I just learned about these things today. But based on that presentation Forky posted...yeah, Central PA certainly in a prime spot for this to occur (if it occurs at all). Posted this in the Philly thread, but since you are actual;ly talking about it, I wantd to see if I was interpreting it correctly. Looks to be setting up further south than was predicted yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The forecast for NYC is pretty ridiculous : Sunday: Hurricane conditions possible. Rain, mainly before 4pm. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 77. North wind 55 to 75 mph decreasing to between 45 and 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. Just pretty amazing to think of that type of conditions in a metro area of 10+ million. Gonna cause some MAJOR problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My guess is that Frederick has similar numbers? Personally, I'd go smaller here until proven otherwise. The Euro would match my total rain since 5/1. I agree with you. I am really not holding out for much. Maybe with that attitude I will be giddy if we actually get close to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't see a reason why a good chunk of us can't get to 3 inches or over. The wind is a different question IMO. My thoughts exactly Kenny, what are you thinking it terms of wind Kenny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Showers starting to pop in the area. Can anybody tell if this is a PRE or just showers from the stalled front? It would be good to see where the rain band sets up if and when it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Showers starting to pop in the area. Can anybody tell if this is a PRE or just showers from the stalled front? It would be good to see where the rain band sets up if and when it does. stalled front interacting with moisture being pushed north. it's been pretty well modeled... it could still act as a boundary going forward tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 nice.. sounds about right. at least till someone reminds us of dec 26 again... Good one, Ian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FWIW 15z SREFs... looks rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looking at the satellite view for the US, I just don't see how this doesn't get swept out by the trough in the center of the country. Can anyone explain? It looks like it would end up east of where it's modeled based on current images, at least for latitudes north of the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 CNN track graphic recently showed the track offshore MD/DE instead of right over, grazing Jersey, and sort of to the right/east of NYC. Not sure what prompted the "east jog" track but Hate to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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