SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The forecast for NYC is pretty ridiculous : Sunday: Hurricane conditions possible. Rain, mainly before 4pm. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 77. North wind 55 to 75 mph decreasing to between 45 and 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. Just pretty amazing to think of that type of conditions in a metro area of 10+ million. Gonna cause some MAJOR problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My guess is that Frederick has similar numbers? Personally, I'd go smaller here until proven otherwise. The Euro would match my total rain since 5/1. I agree with you. I am really not holding out for much. Maybe with that attitude I will be giddy if we actually get close to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't see a reason why a good chunk of us can't get to 3 inches or over. The wind is a different question IMO. My thoughts exactly Kenny, what are you thinking it terms of wind Kenny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Showers starting to pop in the area. Can anybody tell if this is a PRE or just showers from the stalled front? It would be good to see where the rain band sets up if and when it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Showers starting to pop in the area. Can anybody tell if this is a PRE or just showers from the stalled front? It would be good to see where the rain band sets up if and when it does. stalled front interacting with moisture being pushed north. it's been pretty well modeled... it could still act as a boundary going forward tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 nice.. sounds about right. at least till someone reminds us of dec 26 again... Good one, Ian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FWIW 15z SREFs... looks rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looking at the satellite view for the US, I just don't see how this doesn't get swept out by the trough in the center of the country. Can anyone explain? It looks like it would end up east of where it's modeled based on current images, at least for latitudes north of the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 CNN track graphic recently showed the track offshore MD/DE instead of right over, grazing Jersey, and sort of to the right/east of NYC. Not sure what prompted the "east jog" track but Hate to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 4"+ in a stripe about 20 miles west of dc to the shore by 12z Thanks, I just got back from golfing and looked at the euro. It looked farther west than the gfs. I've got my gas, checked my generator, went to the liquor store for wine. I'm ready for the storm. The euro looks like I was lose power for sure, the gfs (meh), I'd probably lose it since I have BGE but it doesn't look as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 stalled front interacting with moisture being pushed north. it's been pretty well modeled... it could still act as a boundary going forward tho Looks like we may have a little fun before the main event. Plenty of daytime heating. Showers now popping up closer to D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FWIW 15z SREFs... looks rainy wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 CNN track graphic recently showed the track offshore MD/DE instead of right over, grazing Jersey, and sort of to the right/east of NYC. Not sure what prompted the "east jog" track but Hate to see it. NBC has had that track as well since this morning. I guess unless the path changes noticeably by the public, 100 miles or so, there's no point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looking at the satellite view for the US, I just don't see how this doesn't get swept out by the trough in the center of the country. Can anyone explain? It looks like it would end up east of where it's modeled based on current images, at least for latitudes north of the VA/NC border. Isn't that the mechanism that isn't allowing it to go right out to sea? At least that's what I've gathered from reading the discussion past few days. Looks like we may have a little fun before the main event. Plenty of daytime heating. Showers now popping up closer to D.C. Doubt we get anything too strong. See LWX discussion. Probably some heavy rainers if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 wow Seems good for at least 2 inches. Lots of spread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 nice.. sounds about right. at least till someone reminds us of dec 26 again... But they don't have much choice, the euro is pretty darn good and it is really wet. Some here may be good enough to say the storm is going to nudge farther east and be like the gfs or even be east of the gfs but knowing how hard it is to beat the Euro and knowing the srefs have a lot fo members giving more rain than the gfs, LWX is in a pickle. It's better to go for the heavier amounts and hope for the lighter ones then go with the lighter amounts and then have flooding. Besides, I could see either the GFS or Euro being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 But they don't have much choice, the euro is pretty darn good and it is really wet. Some here may be good enough to say the storm is going to nudge farther east and be like the gfs or even be east of the gfs but knowing how hard it is to beat the Euro and knowing the srefs have a lot fo members giving more rain than the gfs, LWX is in a pickle. It's better to go for the heavier amounts and hope for the lighter ones then go with the lighter amounts and then have flooding. Besides, I could see either the GFS or Euro being right. i agree. i was just playing around since everyone has been so down on our chances. i've been on the "rain train" for a while now. it's still perilous but i want to say the gfs is wrong with the western cutoff. it'll be sharp somewhere but i think further west than it shows. the euro now has like 5 runs showing DC in 4"+ so it would be one of those epic euro busts we'll talk about for some time if it doesnt happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z NAM def west with precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i agree. i was just playing around since everyone has been so down on our chances. i've been on the "rain train" for a while now. it's still perilous but i want to say the gfs is wrong with the western cutoff. it'll be sharp somewhere but i think further west than it shows. the euro now has like 5 runs showing DC in 4"+ so it would be one of those epic euro busts we'll talk about for some time if it doesnt happen. I'm thinking the Blue Ridge is where a decent sharp cutoff sets up - maybe like a reverse mountain effect lol - finally we can get back at those mountains for eating our precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I can see Frederick Co. maybe even Hagerstown east getting decent rainfall of several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm thinking the Blue Ridge is where a decent sharp cutoff sets up - maybe like a reverse mountain effect lol - finally we can get back at those mountains for eating our precip. Its 3/1/09 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z NAM def west with precip shield actually, I think its lighter than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Arlington County Declares Local Emergency Arlington County Acting County Manager Marsha Allgeier today signed a Declaration of Local Emergency for Arlington County in response to Hurricane Irene. http://goo.gl/bVyUO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On Amtrak south to Virginia Beach (yeah I just had to chase this) and it's eerily quiet. Still sunny and calm wind. A fun next 24 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone have any thoughts on whether we might have a period of strengthening before landfall? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html I recall hurricanes in the past suddenly strengthening as they near the coast. Gulf stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On Amtrak south to Virginia Beach (yeah I just had to chase this) and it's eerily quiet. Still sunny and calm wind. A fun next 24 hours! no need to chase it dude, its coming, just worst down there stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 nynjpaweather Steven DiMartino This should lead to a period of intensification, perhaps rapid intensification this evening.2 minutes agonynjpaweather Steven DiMartino Studying all the data, I am becoming confident that Irene is driving the dry air out of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 lol.. now everyone has to hope to hell it reintensifies so the catastrophic forecasts up the coast have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 On Amtrak south to Virginia Beach (yeah I just had to chase this) and it's eerily quiet. Still sunny and calm wind. A fun next 24 hours! nice.. not a bad idea. say hi to rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 lol.. now everyone has to hope to hell it reintensifies so the catastrophic forecasts up the coast have a chance Otherwise, NWS can expect massive cuts. "Another failed government agency" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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