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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Is there a hurricane half-life? in other words, the longer a hurricane is "alive" there is a point at where the kinetic energy becomes dispersed over such a large area that strengthening hits a wall regardless of favorable conditions. Perhaps this is what we're witnessing now? It's a lot easier to "ramp up" when the energy you have to work with only extends 100 miles or so, but when you have to continuously feed 400+ miles of energy extending out from the center, it will take an order of magnitude conditions to support it - perhaps 90+ degree water temps and 0kt shear, etc. I'd say Irene hit that wall and is pretty much on cruise control. But I could be wrong. :)

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Is there a hurricane half-life? in other words, the longer a hurricane is "alive" there is a point at where the kinetic energy becomes dispersed over such a large area that strengthening hits a wall regardless of favorable conditions. Perhaps this is what we're witnessing now? It's a lot easier to "ramp up" when the energy you have to work with only extends 100 miles or so, but when you have to continuously feed 400+ miles of energy extending out from the center, it will take an order of magnitude conditions to support it - perhaps 90+ degree water temps and 0kt shear, etc. I'd say Irene hit that wall and is pretty much on cruise control. But I could be wrong. :)

Probably linked to the same reason why it takes broader systems longer to get organized than compact systems.

Also the figure skater analogy - figure skaters make themselves take up less room and compact themselves when they want to spin fast. Then they become broader and let themselves spread out to slow down.

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www.weather.gov

www.americanwx.com

P.S. Glad you put in the 3 commas after "MD" or else I would have been confused. Ditto the 4 question marks. I always say, "How much do you really care about the answer if you only use 3 question marks???"

So sorry if I upset you with my post. I come here to get answers from people who I thought was going to help me with my questions. You all bash the local mets and weather channel mets because they don't give accurate or they give miss leading forcasts, I trusted the people here to give me honest forcasts. I can go to though websites you suggested but since I don't know all the terms and lingo(sorry) it really wouldn't do me any good. So once again sorry about my post and I will not bother you again.

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Probably linked to the same reason why it takes broader systems longer to get organized than compact systems.

Also the figure skater analogy - figure skaters make themselves take up less room and compact themselves when they want to spin fast. Then they become broader and let themselves spread out to slow down.

It would be nice if they could build that into the models. perhaps this is what they are missing when keeping Irene so strong further north?

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So sorry if I upset you with my post. I come here to get answers from people who I thought was going to help me with my questions. You all bash the local mets and weather channel mets because they don't give accurate or they give miss leading forcasts, I trusted the people here to give me honest forcasts. I can go to though websites you suggested but since I don't know all the terms and lingo(sorry) it really wouldn't do me any good. So once again sorry about my post and I will not bother you again.

The forecasts are weather.gov are designed for the public. There's no "lingo" in them whatsoever. If you don't like weather lingo or don't want to learn it, then this is definitely not a good message board for you.

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Something to watch for tomorrow...Forky on the main side has a good presentation in the "flood threat" thread about precursor rain events. The upper pattern is definitely textbook for one to occur and I would say we certainly are in a possible location for that.

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Something to watch for tomorrow...Forky on the main side has a good presentation in the "flood threat" thread about precursor rain events. The upper pattern is definitely textbook for one to occur and I would say we certainly are in a possible location for that.

Do these PREs typically "pop up" a squall or develop in a line and follow line, or some other pattern?

(Also, you and I will need to agree to disagree about a certain fried chicken product mentioned previously :) )

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You've only had 3" since May 1st? I'm only approx 25 miles from you in Hagerstown and we've had nearly 16" in that time frame. I knew it was a bit drier in Frederick but didn't realize it was that much drier!

My guess is that Frederick has similar numbers? Personally, I'd go smaller here until proven otherwise. The Euro would match my total rain since 5/1.

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Something to watch for tomorrow...Forky on the main side has a good presentation in the "flood threat" thread about precursor rain events. The upper pattern is definitely textbook for one to occur and I would say we certainly are in a possible location for that.

i mentioned that the other night (and last night wrt the washing out front etc).. no one listens to me. :(

fwiw, im not sure we'll get one here. seems better odds of that north.

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Do these PREs typically "pop up" a squall or develop in a line and follow line, or some other pattern?

I don't know anymore about them then what I just learned in that presentation, so take that into account... Seems like moisture from the TC overruns a frontal boundary and with the interaction (lift) from the right-rear portion of the jet you can get very heavy rain over a limited area.

TC: check

Stalled frontal boundary to our south: check

Right-rear portion of a jet max: check

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

(Also, you and I will need to agree to disagree about a certain fried chicken product mentioned previously :) )

Your loss...more delicious nuggets for me!:thumbsup:

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The forecasts are weather.gov are designed for the public. There's no "lingo" in them whatsoever. If you don't like weather lingo or don't want to learn it, then this is definitely not a good message board for you.

I didn't say I didn't like it or that I didn't want to learn it, I just don't understand it at this point. I was just looking for an answer to a simple question. Please accept my apology for my original stupid post.

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i mentioned that the other night (and last night wrt the washing out front etc).. no one listens to me. :(

Fist bump for you!

fwiw, im not sure we'll get one here. seems better odds of that north.

Agree. We're a bit far from the jet streak. Central PA up into eastern NY probably a bit more favorable. But, we're certainly in the running.

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You've only had 3" since May 1st? I'm only approx 25 miles from you in Hagerstown and we've had nearly 16" in that time frame. I knew it was a bit drier in Frederick but didn't realize it was that much drier!

It's actually closer to 3.5" and about 2" came from the one storm on 7/8. Unwatered lawns are scorched here...I have a pic of the one in front of my office building where it's close to 100% brown. check out http://water.weather.gov/precip/ and look at the 90 day and zoom to Maryland. I live in that bright green color. I'm really hoping for some decent rain from Irene!

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