yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 let's try to town down the random banter a bit as the storm is actually nearing. NAM MOS has 42 kt wind at DCA at 6z Sunday. Sustained 50mph at 2 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Do these PREs typically "pop up" a squall or develop in a line and follow line, or some other pattern? (Also, you and I will need to agree to disagree about a certain fried chicken product mentioned previously ) just change the airport code http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmet.pl?sta=KDCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiltonHeadWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You've only had 3" since May 1st? I'm only approx 25 miles from you in Hagerstown and we've had nearly 16" in that time frame. I knew it was a bit drier in Frederick but didn't realize it was that much drier! My guess is that Frederick has similar numbers? Personally, I'd go smaller here until proven otherwise. The Euro would match my total rain since 5/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Something to watch for tomorrow...Forky on the main side has a good presentation in the "flood threat" thread about precursor rain events. The upper pattern is definitely textbook for one to occur and I would say we certainly are in a possible location for that. i mentioned that the other night (and last night wrt the washing out front etc).. no one listens to me. fwiw, im not sure we'll get one here. seems better odds of that north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Do these PREs typically "pop up" a squall or develop in a line and follow line, or some other pattern? I don't know anymore about them then what I just learned in that presentation, so take that into account... Seems like moisture from the TC overruns a frontal boundary and with the interaction (lift) from the right-rear portion of the jet you can get very heavy rain over a limited area. TC: check Stalled frontal boundary to our south: check Right-rear portion of a jet max: check http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif (Also, you and I will need to agree to disagree about a certain fried chicken product mentioned previously ) Your loss...more delicious nuggets for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Babybee2010 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The forecasts are weather.gov are designed for the public. There's no "lingo" in them whatsoever. If you don't like weather lingo or don't want to learn it, then this is definitely not a good message board for you. I didn't say I didn't like it or that I didn't want to learn it, I just don't understand it at this point. I was just looking for an answer to a simple question. Please accept my apology for my original stupid post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i mentioned that the other night (and last night wrt the washing out front etc).. no one listens to me. Fist bump for you! fwiw, im not sure we'll get one here. seems better odds of that north. Agree. We're a bit far from the jet streak. Central PA up into eastern NY probably a bit more favorable. But, we're certainly in the running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 anything change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You've only had 3" since May 1st? I'm only approx 25 miles from you in Hagerstown and we've had nearly 16" in that time frame. I knew it was a bit drier in Frederick but didn't realize it was that much drier! It's actually closer to 3.5" and about 2" came from the one storm on 7/8. Unwatered lawns are scorched here...I have a pic of the one in front of my office building where it's close to 100% brown. check out http://water.weather.gov/precip/ and look at the 90 day and zoom to Maryland. I live in that bright green color. I'm really hoping for some decent rain from Irene! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I didn't say I didn't like it or that I didn't want to learn it, I just don't understand it at this point. I was just looking for an answer to a simple question. Please accept my apology for my original stupid post. Glad to see you want to learn it. Lots of opportunity on here for that. I suggest if you don't know a term you google it, and that will often give you both an answer and a source to that particular type of information. But as for your original question...weather.gov is the best source. I'd say 90% or more of the mets (and non-mets) on this board use it all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's due to a poor economy and lousy product. Heathen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Fist bump for you! Agree. We're a bit far from the jet streak. Central PA up into eastern NY probably a bit more favorable. But, we're certainly in the running. that perked my ears up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 that perked my ears up I wouldn't get too perky...I just learned about these things today. But based on that presentation Forky posted...yeah, Central PA certainly in a prime spot for this to occur (if it occurs at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeromus-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 you're good make the money now; the hurricane party drunks should tip better you won't get a chance to play for a while in VAB what instrument do you play, if any? That's my theory and the bar's theory, too. My only concern is winds increasing and VDOT closing the bridges and the tunnels. I don't know what time winds are supposed to really pick up in this area; I'm at work and have no live news broadcast available so this is my only real outlet to follow information (posting/reading from my phone). I'm playing drums tonight, so my instruments are at least pretty water resistant, but we will be towing a 5x8 single-axle trailer, and I don't particularly want to watch all our crap get blown into the Atlantic Ocean. The stage is indoors obviously but the bar is still making the "it's on" call and we're really on the fence about that one. If we're looking at some rain and ~30mph winds, I don't care, we'll get paid. If we're going to be 20mi from the eye at that point, I'd much rather stay home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't know anymore about them then what I just learned in that presentation, so take that into account... Seems like moisture from the TC overruns a frontal boundary and with the interaction (lift) from the right-rear portion of the jet you can get very heavy rain over a limited area. TC: check Stalled frontal boundary to our south: check Right-rear portion of a jet max: check http://www.hpc.ncep..../sfc/90fwbg.gif Your loss...more delicious nuggets for me! Hmmm. Could that be the beginnings of some PRE down by Salisbury, MD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 just change the airport code http://www.nws.noaa....met.pl?sta=KDCA Thanks. My quick analysis (from the bias as a pilot, not a Met), is that the DCA one is scewy. BAL is about 6k less, but gusts much higher, IAD in the high 20s. I 'm not inclined to believe a solution where DCA has more wind than BAL given the relative longitude. But, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's my theory and the bar's theory, too. My only concern is winds increasing and VDOT closing the bridges and the tunnels. I don't know what time winds are supposed to really pick up in this area; I'm at work and have no live news broadcast available so this is my only real outlet to follow information (posting/reading from my phone). I'm playing drums tonight, so my instruments are at least pretty water resistant, but we will be towing a 5x8 single-axle trailer, and I don't particularly want to watch all our crap get blown into the Atlantic Ocean. The stage is indoors obviously but the bar is still making the "it's on" call and we're really on the fence about that one. If we're looking at some rain and ~30mph winds, I don't care, we'll get paid. If we're going to be 20mi from the eye at that point, I'd much rather stay home. Per weather.gov: Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Scattered rain and thunderstorms, then rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a low around 76. East wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to between 32 and 37 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Even if this came west and tracked inland, it would still flood us and be breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeromus-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per weather.gov: Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Scattered rain and thunderstorms, then rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a low around 76. East wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to between 32 and 37 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. I've been playing around with their maps, and yeah, it looks like we'll want to be out of there between the 2 AM and 5 AM forecasts, which wouldn't be a problem. A little risky, but I don't think it's suicide or anything. Thanks guys. I'll throw a webcam out the window looking at the beach and live stream what it looks like out here if they've got wifi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe the Dixie Midnight Runners will make a comeback with: "Come On Irene" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So apparently they're evacuating all of Kent Island... I've been in meetings all day - are we still expecting just 3-5ft surge? I don't think the flooding will be as bad as Isabel due to the track not coming right into the bay but going up the coast... Someone correct me if I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 LWX going gung-ho with the FFW update at 1 pm THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND VIRGINIA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL... CALVERT...CHARLES...HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE AND ST. MARYS. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN VIRGINIA...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...FAIRFAX...KING GEORGE...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...SPOTSYLVANIA AND STAFFORD. * FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING * HEAVY RAINS FROM HURRICANE IRENE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARD OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe the Dixie Midnight Runners will make a comeback with: "Come On Irene" Good try....It's Dexys Midnight Runners (they are not from the southern USA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Leesburg QPF Euro 3 inches GFS .42 wtf? Divide the 3 by the .42 and then subtract 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 LWX going gung-ho with the FFW update at 1 pm nice.. sounds about right. at least till someone reminds us of dec 26 again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 nice.. sounds about right. at least till someone reminds us of dec 26 again... I don't see a reason why a good chunk of us can't get to 3 inches or over. The wind is a different question IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't see a reason why a good chunk of us can't get to 3 inches or over. The wind is a different question IMO. yeah we'll see.. the wind trend seems to be up moer than down lately, so could be a "surprise" safe bet it wont be the main story here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yeah we'll see.. the wind trend seems to be up moer than down lately, so could be a "surprise" safe bet it wont be the main story here though Although - If we get real soaked and mushy ground and then one or two 45mph gusts - people will think the wind was insanely strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo5252 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Uggh, just stacked about 1,000 sandbags along houses on the bay here in Calvert County, but for some reason I think it is going to take a little more than sandbags for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I wouldn't get too perky...I just learned about these things today. But based on that presentation Forky posted...yeah, Central PA certainly in a prime spot for this to occur (if it occurs at all). Posted this in the Philly thread, but since you are actual;ly talking about it, I wantd to see if I was interpreting it correctly. Looks to be setting up further south than was predicted yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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