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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Interesting that the foreign models (Euro and GGEM) have a much bigger precip swath to the west. NAm and GFS really keep the gradient tight across our area. HPC is definitely going with a swath more like the former.

the euro is not going to be that wrong in this range.. book it.

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Just watch the dams. If you live downstream from one of those you want to always keep that in mind. Especially during the first heavy rainfall event following a quake.

If any county gov was smart then they would have already inspected all dams by now. I just spent 2 days doing that very thing for the ones we have.

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IMBY question - I have a gig in Virginia Beach tonight at a bar on the Oceanfront, 9 PM - 1 AM. Should I just go ahead and cancel this now, or will we not be feeling the brunt of the storm by then?

you're good

make the money now; the hurricane party drunks should tip better

you won't get a chance to play for a while in VAB

what instrument do you play, if any?

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NMM and ARW hi-res WRFs also like the idea of outer bands of heavy showers rolling through tomorrow. They could really boost someones rain totals.
most models have hinted on it a bit.. the swatch should back up to the mtns at least for a time imo as well. this will be a decent rain for many of us. a few 6"-8"+ totals seem a good bet somewhere dc toward the shore.
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The Euro is never wrong and the GFS sucks monkey ballz...the Jedi Master has told me.

it was not stellar with overdeepening etc but the pattern is pretty simple at this point. i trust it's rain output generally.

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I'm watching CNN (Cyclone News Network) at Logan Airport and just saw the satellite picture. It seems like this thing is unraveling. Almost no cold cloud tops. Could be a CAT 1 storm by landfall, but NHC and the media will agree to keep it as a CAT 2 so the public does not lower its guard.

Threat level zero. Storm is falling apart! 74mph winds by 8pm tonight?

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I guess chalk this up to the hi-res WRFs not being tropical models and being short-range focused. Huge differnence in track between the NMM and ARW. ARW absolutely crushes us...takes Irene over the mouth of the Bay and onto Assateauge. NMM has a more GFS like track. 42hr panels:

ARW: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042m.gif

NMM: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042l.gif

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I'm watching CNN (Cyclone News Network) at Logan Airport and just saw the satellite picture. It seems like this thing is unraveling. Almost no cold cloud tops. Could be a CAT 1 storm by landfall, but NHC and the media will agree to keep it as a CAT 2 so the public does not lower its guard.

good for us.. good for the people who dont want to die in the northeast.. bad for mayor bloomberg?

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I guess chalk this up to the hi-res WRFs not being tropical models and being short-range focused. Huge differnence in track between the NMM and ARW. ARW absolutely crushes us...takes Irene over the mouth of the Bay and onto Assateauge. NMM has a more GFS like track. 42hr panels:

ARW: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042m.gif

NMM: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042l.gif

Or the weenie approach - "they are higher res so they clearly know better :o"

:P:thumbsup:

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What should I expect from Irene here in Joppa, MD,,,Harford County????

www.weather.gov

www.americanwx.com

P.S. Glad you put in the 3 commas after "MD" or else I would have been confused. Ditto the 4 question marks. I always say, "How much do you really care about the answer if you only use 3 question marks???"

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