WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I guess chalk this up to the hi-res WRFs not being tropical models and being short-range focused. Huge differnence in track between the NMM and ARW. ARW absolutely crushes us...takes Irene over the mouth of the Bay and onto Assateauge. NMM has a more GFS like track. 42hr panels: ARW: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042m.gif NMM: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm watching CNN (Cyclone News Network) at Logan Airport and just saw the satellite picture. It seems like this thing is unraveling. Almost no cold cloud tops. Could be a CAT 1 storm by landfall, but NHC and the media will agree to keep it as a CAT 2 so the public does not lower its guard. good for us.. good for the people who dont want to die in the northeast.. bad for mayor bloomberg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I guess chalk this up to the hi-res WRFs not being tropical models and being short-range focused. Huge differnence in track between the NMM and ARW. ARW absolutely crushes us...takes Irene over the mouth of the Bay and onto Assateauge. NMM has a more GFS like track. 42hr panels: ARW: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042m.gif NMM: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042l.gif Or the weenie approach - "they are higher res so they clearly know better " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What should I expect from Irene here in Joppa, MD,,,Harford County???? www.weather.gov www.americanwx.com P.S. Glad you put in the 3 commas after "MD" or else I would have been confused. Ditto the 4 question marks. I always say, "How much do you really care about the answer if you only use 3 question marks???" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The chick fil a in crofton is boarding up. Not sure what to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The chick fil a in crofton is boarding up. Not sure what to say Interesting lol. Next time we get a severe thunderstorm with winds in excess of 70mph you should ask them why they are not taking precautions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The chick fil a in crofton is boarding up. Not sure what to say That's due to a poor economy and lousy product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The chick fil a in crofton is boarding up. Not sure what to say Just getting ready to close for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Leesburg QPF Euro 3 inches GFS .42 wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What should I expect from Irene here in Joppa, MD,,,Harford County???? rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's due to a poor economy and lousy product. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is there a hurricane half-life? in other words, the longer a hurricane is "alive" there is a point at where the kinetic energy becomes dispersed over such a large area that strengthening hits a wall regardless of favorable conditions. Perhaps this is what we're witnessing now? It's a lot easier to "ramp up" when the energy you have to work with only extends 100 miles or so, but when you have to continuously feed 400+ miles of energy extending out from the center, it will take an order of magnitude conditions to support it - perhaps 90+ degree water temps and 0kt shear, etc. I'd say Irene hit that wall and is pretty much on cruise control. But I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is there a hurricane half-life? in other words, the longer a hurricane is "alive" there is a point at where the kinetic energy becomes dispersed over such a large area that strengthening hits a wall regardless of favorable conditions. Perhaps this is what we're witnessing now? It's a lot easier to "ramp up" when the energy you have to work with only extends 100 miles or so, but when you have to continuously feed 400+ miles of energy extending out from the center, it will take an order of magnitude conditions to support it - perhaps 90+ degree water temps and 0kt shear, etc. I'd say Irene hit that wall and is pretty much on cruise control. But I could be wrong. Probably linked to the same reason why it takes broader systems longer to get organized than compact systems. Also the figure skater analogy - figure skaters make themselves take up less room and compact themselves when they want to spin fast. Then they become broader and let themselves spread out to slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 rainstorm???? Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Babybee2010 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 www.weather.gov www.americanwx.com P.S. Glad you put in the 3 commas after "MD" or else I would have been confused. Ditto the 4 question marks. I always say, "How much do you really care about the answer if you only use 3 question marks???" So sorry if I upset you with my post. I come here to get answers from people who I thought was going to help me with my questions. You all bash the local mets and weather channel mets because they don't give accurate or they give miss leading forcasts, I trusted the people here to give me honest forcasts. I can go to though websites you suggested but since I don't know all the terms and lingo(sorry) it really wouldn't do me any good. So once again sorry about my post and I will not bother you again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 let's try to town down the random banter a bit as the storm is actually nearing. NAM MOS has 42 kt wind at DCA at 6z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Probably linked to the same reason why it takes broader systems longer to get organized than compact systems. Also the figure skater analogy - figure skaters make themselves take up less room and compact themselves when they want to spin fast. Then they become broader and let themselves spread out to slow down. It would be nice if they could build that into the models. perhaps this is what they are missing when keeping Irene so strong further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 let's try to town down the random banter a bit as the storm is actually nearing. NAM MOS has 42 kt wind at DCA at 6z Sunday. Is that product sustained or gust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It would be nice if they could build that into the models. perhaps this is what they are missing when keeping Irene so strong further north? I think they should try to stuff an entire figure skater into the super computer. It could only help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 let's try to town down the random banter a bit as the storm is actually nearing. NAM MOS has 42 kt wind at DCA at 6z Sunday. Wow! Surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is that product sustained or gust? sustained.. could be screwy. it's a good bit higher than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 sustained.. could be screwy. it's a good bit higher than the gfs. Yeah it seems a little high based on the zoomed in version from wunderground we never got above 30 but its exciting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Threat Level Negative 1. Now watching NYC TV station on my airplane. These anchors have these looks of deep concern at all times. Like 9/11. Ridic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 lousy product. Sacrilege! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Was that the 12z or 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So sorry if I upset you with my post. I come here to get answers from people who I thought was going to help me with my questions. You all bash the local mets and weather channel mets because they don't give accurate or they give miss leading forcasts, I trusted the people here to give me honest forcasts. I can go to though websites you suggested but since I don't know all the terms and lingo(sorry) it really wouldn't do me any good. So once again sorry about my post and I will not bother you again. The forecasts are weather.gov are designed for the public. There's no "lingo" in them whatsoever. If you don't like weather lingo or don't want to learn it, then this is definitely not a good message board for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Something to watch for tomorrow...Forky on the main side has a good presentation in the "flood threat" thread about precursor rain events. The upper pattern is definitely textbook for one to occur and I would say we certainly are in a possible location for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 sustained.. could be screwy. it's a good bit higher than the gfs. You got a forecast from the same source for the other airports? Curious what kind of gradian they got baked into that . Sustained 42k would be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Leesburg QPF Euro 3 inches GFS .42 wtf? My guess is that Frederick has similar numbers? Personally, I'd go smaller here until proven otherwise. The Euro would match my total rain since 5/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Something to watch for tomorrow...Forky on the main side has a good presentation in the "flood threat" thread about precursor rain events. The upper pattern is definitely textbook for one to occur and I would say we certainly are in a possible location for that. Do these PREs typically "pop up" a squall or develop in a line and follow line, or some other pattern? (Also, you and I will need to agree to disagree about a certain fried chicken product mentioned previously ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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