Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 roughly same track as before, Ian? NNE movement after landfall? generally.. it's a bit west of 0z i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Interesting that the foreign models (Euro and GGEM) have a much bigger precip swath to the west. NAm and GFS really keep the gradient tight across our area. HPC is definitely going with a swath more like the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'd take these ~75mph 850mb winds for DC... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbWinds048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Interesting that the foreign models (Euro and GGEM) have a much bigger precip swath to the west. NAm and GFS really keep the gradient tight across our area. HPC is definitely going with a swath more like the former. the euro is not going to be that wrong in this range.. book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just watch the dams. If you live downstream from one of those you want to always keep that in mind. Especially during the first heavy rainfall event following a quake. If any county gov was smart then they would have already inspected all dams by now. I just spent 2 days doing that very thing for the ones we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeromus-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 IMBY question - I have a gig in Virginia Beach tonight at a bar on the Oceanfront, 9 PM - 1 AM. Should I just go ahead and cancel this now, or will we not be feeling the brunt of the storm by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Are you watching Irene, or is Irene watching you? Right, I'm off home with a stop along the way to pick up a case of some cold beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NMM and ARW hi-res WRFs also like the idea of outer bands of heavy showers rolling through tomorrow. They could really boost someones rain totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 the euro is not going to be that wrong in this range.. book it. Someone can book this for valuable future troll material. Although, I do hope the Euro turns out to be right IRT the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 IMBY question - I have a gig in Virginia Beach tonight at a bar on the Oceanfront, 9 PM - 1 AM. Should I just go ahead and cancel this now, or will we not be feeling the brunt of the storm by then? you're good make the money now; the hurricane party drunks should tip better you won't get a chance to play for a while in VAB what instrument do you play, if any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think rain > wind threat in DC. Although with saturated ground what normally could be moderate winds could bring down more trees. So I guess it's all relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 NMM and ARW hi-res WRFs also like the idea of outer bands of heavy showers rolling through tomorrow. They could really boost someones rain totals. most models have hinted on it a bit.. the swatch should back up to the mtns at least for a time imo as well. this will be a decent rain for many of us. a few 6"-8"+ totals seem a good bet somewhere dc toward the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
esullivan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 you're not driving a minivan are you? IMBY question - I have a gig in Virginia Beach tonight at a bar on the Oceanfront, 9 PM - 1 AM. Should I just go ahead and cancel this now, or will we not be feeling the brunt of the storm by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 the euro is not going to be that wrong in this range.. book it. The Euro is never wrong and the GFS sucks monkey ballz...the Jedi Master has told me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 The Euro is never wrong and the GFS sucks monkey ballz...the Jedi Master has told me. it was not stellar with overdeepening etc but the pattern is pretty simple at this point. i trust it's rain output generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If any county gov was smart then they would have already inspected all dams by now. I just spent 2 days doing that very thing for the ones we have. We did. But that doesn't cause me any less concern about hidden structural issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 it was not stellar with overdeepening etc but the pattern is pretty simple at this point. i trust it's rain output generally. Didn't somebody say it has a track record of overdeepening these things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The Euro is never wrong and the GFS sucks monkey ballz...the Jedi Master has told me. Learned well you have my young padawan learner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm watching CNN (Cyclone News Network) at Logan Airport and just saw the satellite picture. It seems like this thing is unraveling. Almost no cold cloud tops. Could be a CAT 1 storm by landfall, but NHC and the media will agree to keep it as a CAT 2 so the public does not lower its guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Babybee2010 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What should I expect from Irene here in Joppa, MD,,,Harford County???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm watching CNN (Cyclone News Network) at Logan Airport and just saw the satellite picture. It seems like this thing is unraveling. Almost no cold cloud tops. Could be a CAT 1 storm by landfall, but NHC and the media will agree to keep it as a CAT 2 so the public does not lower its guard. Threat level zero. Storm is falling apart! 74mph winds by 8pm tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I guess chalk this up to the hi-res WRFs not being tropical models and being short-range focused. Huge differnence in track between the NMM and ARW. ARW absolutely crushes us...takes Irene over the mouth of the Bay and onto Assateauge. NMM has a more GFS like track. 42hr panels: ARW: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042m.gif NMM: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm watching CNN (Cyclone News Network) at Logan Airport and just saw the satellite picture. It seems like this thing is unraveling. Almost no cold cloud tops. Could be a CAT 1 storm by landfall, but NHC and the media will agree to keep it as a CAT 2 so the public does not lower its guard. good for us.. good for the people who dont want to die in the northeast.. bad for mayor bloomberg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I guess chalk this up to the hi-res WRFs not being tropical models and being short-range focused. Huge differnence in track between the NMM and ARW. ARW absolutely crushes us...takes Irene over the mouth of the Bay and onto Assateauge. NMM has a more GFS like track. 42hr panels: ARW: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042m.gif NMM: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_042l.gif Or the weenie approach - "they are higher res so they clearly know better " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What should I expect from Irene here in Joppa, MD,,,Harford County???? www.weather.gov www.americanwx.com P.S. Glad you put in the 3 commas after "MD" or else I would have been confused. Ditto the 4 question marks. I always say, "How much do you really care about the answer if you only use 3 question marks???" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The chick fil a in crofton is boarding up. Not sure what to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The chick fil a in crofton is boarding up. Not sure what to say Interesting lol. Next time we get a severe thunderstorm with winds in excess of 70mph you should ask them why they are not taking precautions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The chick fil a in crofton is boarding up. Not sure what to say That's due to a poor economy and lousy product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The chick fil a in crofton is boarding up. Not sure what to say Just getting ready to close for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Leesburg QPF Euro 3 inches GFS .42 wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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