nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 http://www.americanw...-1314371470.png Toss out the BAMM/BAMS.... and we have pretty good agreement on the 12z early cycle track guidance for Irene going over Delmarv/Eastern Shore GFS so far (out to 33) looks like it might want to follow suit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 She looks like she's headed for landfall West of Morehead City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah GFS looks the same as the others basically. Pretty solid consensus we got going here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Actually no... it goes over OBX then jaunts NNE/NE cause it misses Cape May to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Actually no... it goes over OBX then jaunts NNE/NE cause it misses Cape May to the east Yeah it looks pretty east to me too by the time it's up here. http://raleighwx.ame...6_county042.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS is east.. toss it naturally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Actually no... it goes over OBX then jaunts NNE/NE cause it misses Cape May to the east Actually also it starts going nne, which is sorta a misrepresentation of the current situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Actually no... it goes over OBX then jaunts NNE/NE cause it misses Cape May to the east Game over I'm going to eat my way into depression lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This thread reminds me of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Actually also it starts going nne, which is sorta a misrepresentation of the current situation. Perhaps - but as I said earlier the slightly west of north motion could be a temporary wobble that could easily be balanced out by an east of north movement later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Graphical forecast wind gusts from LWX for 2am Sunday. FWIW - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It looks ok to me, maybe a little less rain but probably 20-30 mph winds for a period which would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Perhaps - but as I said earlier the slightly west of north motion could be a temporary wobble that could easily be balanced out by an east of north movement later. Oh i know Kenny, but really its supposed to be going at like 5-15 degrees now, so really due north would take it west of the current expected path (albeit slightly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 you guys should stop looking at the models if you arent going to interpret them usefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This thread reminds me of winter. lots of hemming and hauling over 50 mile jumps from run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Oh i know Kenny, but really its supposed to be going at like 5-15 degrees now, so really due north would take it west of the current expected path (albeit slightly). Oh yeah I'm definitely not arguing - there's no argument that it doesn't/didn't have a bit of westerly component. Even so, it could go a bit more east than progged to make up for any west deviation. Still tough to really nail down any track until the center passes right over a forecast point. Even 15-30 mile wobbles are probably within the background noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 you guys should stop looking at the models if you arent going to interpret them usefully NCEP should just stop running them for a day to mess with the weenies. lots of hemming and hauling over 50 mile jumps from run to run Winter should be amazing!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 lots of hemming and hauling over 50 mile jumps from run to run You know how the weather is... its a crap chute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 you guys should stop looking at the models if you arent going to interpret them usefully I interpret the models how I want to thank you very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 lots of hemming and hauling over 50 mile jumps from run to run sewing and moving material goods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 One of the bright sides of this is that we get lots of live studio coverage from LaRosa, Egger and Carfagno on the weather channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 lots of hemming and hauling over 50 mile jumps from run to run I may have contributed by just posting a link to a snapshot map, so maybe I'll make it better by pointing out that models' margin of error are still somewhere north of 100 km this far away from the storm's closest passage to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 you guys should stop looking at the models if you arent going to interpret them usefully I like looking at models, though. I especially like that Marisa Miller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Some of the posts in the main forum live thread are funny. I've seen posts saying the east coast "lucked out" because Irene is not intense. There's also a certain poster who is acting like everything is working against this storm to maintain intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 12z RGEM looks interesting -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_036.jpg Too bad no 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NOGAPS even further west? I know its the NOGAPS, but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Actually no... it goes over OBX then jaunts NNE/NE cause it misses Cape May to the east Score one for the national meterological firm advising the Germantown Soccerplex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 32 calls from residents for sandbags today. I thank DC and Fairfax County for propagating that expectation. They issue 5 bags per person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 32 calls from residents for sandbags today. I thank DC and Fairfax County for propagating that expectation. They issue 5 bags per person. I live in Fairfax, where do I get my bags? I can use them to refill my daughter's sandbox if the wind blows it all away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 More westerly component then expected at this point, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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