TalcottWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 often winds on the west side of a storm going north/northeast up the coast arent that bad unless there's also a big high around somewhere too etc. if i want lots of rain i probably want it overhead or just to the east but for more "fun" effects I'd probably take one going to the west even if it means needing to get lucky on that fun. Yup and it often never happens with a hp because you need the trof to our west to pull the storm north. Most east coast storms have the HP to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I don't usually consider myself part of that larger apparatus but I suppose so in ways. Definitely on the documentation angle. I think that's a major part of it... not sure a tornado happens anywhere these days without someone seeing it and youtubing it. I definitely am skeptical of this new era of severe weather. I think it's just as likely we run into benign periods etc. On a side note: didnt many of the early runs with this thing slam the se coast? interesting we seem to be heading back there pretty heavily now.. sometimes you get the picture at d12 it seems then lose it only for it to come back again in the end. LOL--- that statement used to be (in the not so distant past) "sometimes you get the picture at day 4 it seems then lose it only for it to come back within 24 hours." We've talked about this a lot, especially with regards to hurricanes/tropical weather-- the increase in specificity in discussing hurricane tracks in the medium range on weather boards (day 5, let alone the day 7 range we're at now) has pretty drastically outpaced the advances in forecast accuracy. All of the level-heads will try to pull the discussion back and try to blur up the picture a bit, but it's still out there. Everyone on this board has access to models now and can see the actual "L" over a particular important city in a week. Yes, forecasting hurricane tracks has improved with model improvements since 2004, but I remember back then the overall sense of weather fanatics was that there was "respect" for the uncertainty beyond day 3. Take Jeanne for example-- first supposed to march towards the SE coast, then caught in slow steering with no firm expectation (well, Bastardi aside) that it would loop back towards Florida as it meandered eastward. It was a possibility and one scenario out of many, but there wasn't a consensus forecast towards that type of FL impact until much closer in. It's actually pretty interesting to look at all the "Graphics Archives" the NHC has on their website. Here's Jeanne's: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/JEANNE_graphics.shtml. A Saturday Charleston landfall for Irene is way way way too early to be gearing up for, and again, the mets are doing their best in blurring the picture. But, you can begin to see the mass-move of the board towards a solution (and subsequent letdown if it doesn't happen) this Sunday evening despite the noble resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 LOL--- that statement used to be (in the not so distant past) "sometimes you get the picture at day 4 it seems then lose it only for it to come back within 24 hours." We've talked about this a lot, especially with regards to hurricanes/tropical weather-- the increase in specificity in discussing hurricane tracks in the medium range on weather boards (day 5, let alone the day 7 range we're at now) has pretty drastically outpaced the advances in forecast accuracy. All of the level-heads will try to pull the discussion back and try to blur up the picture a bit, but it's still out there. Everyone on this board has access to models now and can see the actual "L" over a particular important city in a week. Yes, forecasting hurricane tracks has improved with model improvements since 2004, but I remember back then the overall sense of weather fanatics was that there was "respect" for the uncertainty beyond day 3. Take Jeanne for example-- first supposed to march towards the SE coast, then caught in slow steering with no firm expectation (well, Bastardi aside) that it would loop back towards Florida as it meandered eastward. It was a possibility and one scenario out of many, but there wasn't a consensus forecast towards that type of FL impact until much closer in. It's actually pretty interesting to look at all the "Graphics Archives" the NHC has on their website. Here's Jeanne's: http://www.nhc.noaa...._graphics.shtml. A Saturday Charleston landfall for Irene is way way way too early to be gearing up for, and again, the mets are doing their best in blurring the picture. But, you can begin to see the mass-move of the board towards a solution (and subsequent letdown if it doesn't happen) this Sunday evening despite the noble resistance. This thing has had remarkable staying power on the models though .. even way out there. So at least in that sense it would be a surprise to see nothing. I also do believe models have gotten a good deal better over the last 5-10 years. It's probably just poor recall but it does sometimes seem like you get a glimpse at the ultimate scenario when it first shows up then it becomes a mess from there only to return. There is something to the idea of "big storms being well forecast" and in some ways getting a hurricane is "easier" than a massive nor'easter where you need 12 parts to come together. I'm definitely not any under belief that we've narrowed in on where it's going to hit (assuming it traverses the islands fine). There is still plenty of time to shift it back left or right despite the clustering of models etc. I'm not even sure why hobbyists or even mets who post here for fun would take the time to make a map when even the experts at NHC have to do a lot of shifting with most of these things. I do find it funny how "hard right" the few mapmakers went today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This thing has had remarkable staying power on the models though .. even way out there. So at least in that sense it would be a surprise to see nothing. I also do believe models have gotten a good deal better over the last 5-10 years. It's probably just poor recall but it does sometimes seem like you get a glimpse at the ultimate scenario when it first shows up then it becomes a mess from there only to return. There is something to the idea of "big storms being well forecast" and in some ways getting a hurricane is "easier" than a massive nor'easter where you need 12 parts to come together. I'm definitely not any under belief that we've narrowed in on where it's going to hit (assuming it traverses the islands fine). There is still plenty of time to shift it back left or right despite the clustering of models etc. I'm not even sure why hobbyists or even mets who post here for fun would take the time to make a map when even the experts at NHC have to do a lot of shifting with most of these things. I do find it funny how "hard right" the few mapmakers went today. As far as the big features we're looking at (e.g. dominant bermuda high, trough on the east coast), we can definitely get an idea pretty far out, which is useful for hurricane tracking. As you suggest in your post, at this time frame for a snowstorm, all that can be discussed is that the "pattern is favorable." Those who hold on at day 7 are disappointed the vast majority of the time (ugh-- Euro threads). The difference to me is that when we get within day 4 or 3, a 50 mile change in a winter low placement still doesn't rule out any one area getting in on the snow. There might be less or more, but it's all within the winter grind that we have plenty of experience on. In a hurricane, though, especially along the east coast, a 50 mile difference in longitude makes a world of difference in what's experienced at any given location. And since there's so little experience with hurricanes for most of us, there's not a lot of precedence on how they turn out for any location compared the model runs. Earl was a classic LOL. I mean, metfan is metfan, but he was all indignant about staying up late for model runs for like a week and having nothing to show for it...and he was convinced that he spoke for many on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm worried people read too much into day 7+ models. More like 5 days bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 992 moving right on by DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 More like 5 days bro. Not unless you count landfall in FL should it happen. 0z GFS is wow for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Not unless you count landfall in FL should it happen. 0z GFS is wow for this area. heavy heavy flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 6-9 inches of rain + for i-95, unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 hi irene please bang me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 meh. glorified noreaster now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Dumb luck -- Am down in OBX until next Sunday (8/28). Come'on Irene ! Wave heights were unusually low 8/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 hi irene please bang me Almost certainly worthy of an EOC activation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Chances are really good for my chase. I'm not convinced yet about the Carolinas being the only target at this point. In fact, I'm still planning toward a late Tuesday departure for a S.Florida intercept. It is going to be a bit interesting over the next 36 hours or so. A lot to look at and lot to do. I post more with my first blog for this system: http://www.weatherwarrior.net/blog/ which I will update throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 My in-laws live in Hilton Head. If I can get out of work on Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Weenies heads gonna roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 imagine the mass jumping if its a fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm outraged that a PDS hasn't been issued yet. Shut down the Bay Bridge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 imagine the mass jumping if its a fish I'll laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm outraged that a PDS hasn't been issued yet. Shut down the Bay Bridge! Just surprised a certain county employee that lives in a different state hasn't seen snow on the DOT cameras yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'll laugh considering it's days out still and the shift we've seen it might be time to be nervous. though i see mention of fish disappearing from the main thread... maybe if we don't talk about it then it wont happen. Just surprised a certain county employee that lives in a different state hasn't seen snow on the DOT cameras yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 considering it's days out still and the shift we've seen it might be time to be nervous. though i see mention of fish disappearing from the main thread... maybe if we don't talk about it then it wont happen. Low expections means nothing to be nervous about. If it fishes, so be it. I can live without 5+ inches of rain Sunday/Monday. But it will be fun to watch 200+ people all whine about it... for a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Low expections means nothing to be nervous about. If it fishes, so be it. I can live without 5+ inches of rain Sunday/Monday. But it will be fun to watch 200+ people all whine about it... for a few minutes. plus a fish should make SNE more excited.. they tend to waste time on hurricanes that have no chance of hitting them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 considering it's days out still and the shift we've seen it might be time to be nervous. though i see mention of fish disappearing from the main thread... maybe if we don't talk about it then it wont happen. Seems to me, from my purely don't know what I am talking about perspective, that the modeling shifts in the last sets of runs would temper anyone's enthusiasm about the certainty of a land-fall on the east coast. Only thing missing are the posts talking about an east bias and that it is really coming more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 meh. glorified noreaster now. Where's the arctic high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Seems to me, from my purely don't know what I am talking about perspective, that the modeling shifts in the last sets of runs would temper anyone's enthusiasm about the certainty of a land-fall on the east coast. Only thing missing are the posts talking about an east bias and that it is really coming more west. even if it hits i hope there are a few gfs/euro runs with a solid miss. that should throw people for a loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 even if it hits i hope there are a few gfs/euro runs with a solid miss. that should throw people for a loop. Evil.... though I have to admit it would be funny to watch people throwing themselves off buildings if the models take a dramatic turn towards a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Not unless you count landfall in FL should it happen. 0z GFS is wow for this area. 5 Days, let's hope it doesn't go fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The way it interacts with the coast is perfect. It's already off to the races and won't get fubared by Hispaniola. It seems it could make landfall in NC or SNE as Cat 3/2 because of the new trajectory, don't think I recall ever seeing such an intense tropical scenario progged (except for Isabel) for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Here is my analog for Hurricane Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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