Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 tho i may wait till sunday morning to make a call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 2-4" IMBY The high sun angle may play havoc with your forecast. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 The high sun angle may play havoc with your forecast. MDstorm I guess I stole NWS's... GFS/euro blend ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How about this one? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf-noaahfip/2011082600-irene09l/slp18.png LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Judging by the models that take her more easterly, she's going to have to start adding an easterly component to her track very soon. The more north she moves, the more it looks like it's going to be very hard to turn on that angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Judging by the models that take her more easterly, she's going to have to start adding an easterly component to her track very soon. The more north she moves, the more it looks like it's going to be very hard to turn on that angle. Eh...not necessarily - storms can take pretty sharp turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The high sun angle may play havoc with your forecast. MDstorm Maybe we'll get a little slizzle if we're lucky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How about this one? http://moe.met.fsu.e...ne09l/slp18.png LOL. if you look at this water vapor loop, its gonna have to cut NNW; I don't believe that happens, but I guess it shouldn't be ruled out until after tonight's runs http://www.ssd.noaa....na-wv-loop.html a due north trajectory from is current location brings it over Pamlico Sound (there goes my fav hotel on the OBX ) any easterly component to its northerly track now will result in the 0Z NAM solution imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My family in South Jersey is mass e-mailing each other keeping track of the storm and making sure everyone is prepared. That's a good and responsible thing to do...until my aunts start weighing in with their own predictions and opinions. Of course, they're swayed by the hyping by local weathercasters and the clinging to each model run. Then, of course, the political discourse begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Eh...not necessarily - storms can take pretty sharp turns. Agreed (I'm thinking of Chraley), but in those cases there is usually more of a turning mechanism in place, such as a decent cold front. We don't really have that this time I don't think, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone get the PEPCO call? I hung up about 4 seconds in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loshjott Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I just got the Alert Montgomery email/text with the Tropical Storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone get the PEPCO call? I hung up about 4 seconds in. They're calling to apologize in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What's with the forecast points on the NHC water vapor loop? Those can't be correct? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 They're calling to apologize in advance? pretty much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Eh...not necessarily - storms can take pretty sharp turns. Indeed but such a maneuver is not forecasted by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Indeed but such a maneuver is not forecasted by the models. I don't think hurricanes watch models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Indeed but such a maneuver is not forecasted by the models. Sooo...to be clear, you are saying that as long as the forecasts are RIGHT, you think the forecasts look like they might be WRONG. Gotcha. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 tho i may wait till sunday morning to make a call I've been strategically missing during most of the discussion. This is sort of like a winter snow storm in terms of how slight changes in track can lead to big changes in effects. Right now being a coward, I'd stick to the middle of the pack, sort of like NHC has done since then you can slide the forecast either way based on trends and what is actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosemont/old town Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 pretty much.. Just a quick question, but why did the odds of a tropical storm increase overnight with the model runs that have most here grumbling about another miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 They're calling to apologize in advance? That made me laugh. I'm just hoping power goes out in the DC office and not restored in time for Monday so I can have a day off. And hopefully the power in my apartment in Arlington stays on the entire time. That would be the ideal scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Then, of course, the political discourse begins... Is that graphic a representation of what you fear will happen if they are housebound together for an extended period of time? I never really got the "over-hyped" meme. The storm is big and strong. If it hits where you are, you will have problems. If it misses, then you have extra bottles of water for the kid's soccer games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone get the PEPCO call? I hung up about 4 seconds in. I already got my 25lbs bag of ice in my freezer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I've been strategically missing during most of the discussion. This is sort of like a winter snow storm in terms of how slight changes in track can lead to big changes in effects. Right now being a coward, I'd stick to the middle of the pack, sort of like NHC has done since then you can slide the forecast either way based on trends and what is actually happening. The only thing I have to lose is Yeoman's respect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just a quick question, but why did the odds of a tropical storm increase overnight with the model runs that have most here grumbling about another miss? The changes were small.. people have trouble reading models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is that graphic a representation of what you fear will happen if they are housebound together for an extended period of time? I never really got the "over-hyped" meme. The storm is big and strong. If it hits where you are, you will have problems. If it misses, then you have extra bottles of water for the kid's soccer games. It's the feeling I have when hearing them get political in general. I love them to death, but everything eventually turns strongly anti- or pro-something-or-other - and it's usually a result of misinformed opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 at 30 hrs, it "looks" like the NAM is gonna throw back some rain in our area, but critical time is yet to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone get the PEPCO call? I hung up about 4 seconds in. BG&E doesn't seem to be extending the same courtesy.... That reminds me, I have to fire up the generator and make sure it still actually works. Fun day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 at 30 hrs, it "looks" like the NAM is gonna throw back some rain in our area, but critical time is yet to come Looks a bit west of the 6z track. Need better resolution maps to see how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The only thing I have to lose is Yeoman's respect! What respect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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