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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Judging by the models that take her more easterly, she's going to have to start adding an easterly component to her track very soon. The more north she moves, the more it looks like it's going to be very hard to turn on that angle.

Eh...not necessarily - storms can take pretty sharp turns.

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How about this one?

http://moe.met.fsu.e...ne09l/slp18.png

LOL.

if you look at this water vapor loop, its gonna have to cut NNW; I don't believe that happens, but I guess it shouldn't be ruled out until after tonight's runs

http://www.ssd.noaa....na-wv-loop.html

a due north trajectory from is current location brings it over Pamlico Sound (there goes my fav hotel on the OBX :( )

any easterly component to its northerly track now will result in the 0Z NAM solution imho

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My family in South Jersey is mass e-mailing each other keeping track of the storm and making sure everyone is prepared. That's a good and responsible thing to do...until my aunts start weighing in with their own predictions and opinions. Of course, they're swayed by the hyping by local weathercasters and the clinging to each model run.

Then, of course, the political discourse begins... :ee:

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tho i may wait till sunday morning to make a call

I've been strategically missing during most of the discussion.

This is sort of like a winter snow storm in terms of how slight changes in track can lead to big changes in effects. Right now being a coward, I'd stick to the middle of the pack, sort of like NHC has done since then you can slide the forecast either way based on trends and what is actually happening.

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Then, of course, the political discourse begins... :ee:

Is that graphic a representation of what you fear will happen if they are housebound together for an extended period of time? I never really got the "over-hyped" meme. The storm is big and strong. If it hits where you are, you will have problems. If it misses, then you have extra bottles of water for the kid's soccer games.

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I've been strategically missing during most of the discussion.

This is sort of like a winter snow storm in terms of how slight changes in track can lead to big changes in effects. Right now being a coward, I'd stick to the middle of the pack, sort of like NHC has done since then you can slide the forecast either way based on trends and what is actually happening.

The only thing I have to lose is Yeoman's respect!

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Just a quick question, but why did the odds of a tropical storm increase overnight with the model runs that have most here grumbling about another miss?

The changes were small.. people have trouble reading models.

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Is that graphic a representation of what you fear will happen if they are housebound together for an extended period of time? I never really got the "over-hyped" meme. The storm is big and strong. If it hits where you are, you will have problems. If it misses, then you have extra bottles of water for the kid's soccer games.

It's the feeling I have when hearing them get political in general. I love them to death, but everything eventually turns strongly anti- or pro-something-or-other - and it's usually a result of misinformed opinion.

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