Kicking Up A Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 They're calling to apologize in advance? That made me laugh. I'm just hoping power goes out in the DC office and not restored in time for Monday so I can have a day off. And hopefully the power in my apartment in Arlington stays on the entire time. That would be the ideal scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Then, of course, the political discourse begins... Is that graphic a representation of what you fear will happen if they are housebound together for an extended period of time? I never really got the "over-hyped" meme. The storm is big and strong. If it hits where you are, you will have problems. If it misses, then you have extra bottles of water for the kid's soccer games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone get the PEPCO call? I hung up about 4 seconds in. I already got my 25lbs bag of ice in my freezer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I've been strategically missing during most of the discussion. This is sort of like a winter snow storm in terms of how slight changes in track can lead to big changes in effects. Right now being a coward, I'd stick to the middle of the pack, sort of like NHC has done since then you can slide the forecast either way based on trends and what is actually happening. The only thing I have to lose is Yeoman's respect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just a quick question, but why did the odds of a tropical storm increase overnight with the model runs that have most here grumbling about another miss? The changes were small.. people have trouble reading models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is that graphic a representation of what you fear will happen if they are housebound together for an extended period of time? I never really got the "over-hyped" meme. The storm is big and strong. If it hits where you are, you will have problems. If it misses, then you have extra bottles of water for the kid's soccer games. It's the feeling I have when hearing them get political in general. I love them to death, but everything eventually turns strongly anti- or pro-something-or-other - and it's usually a result of misinformed opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 at 30 hrs, it "looks" like the NAM is gonna throw back some rain in our area, but critical time is yet to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone get the PEPCO call? I hung up about 4 seconds in. BG&E doesn't seem to be extending the same courtesy.... That reminds me, I have to fire up the generator and make sure it still actually works. Fun day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 at 30 hrs, it "looks" like the NAM is gonna throw back some rain in our area, but critical time is yet to come Looks a bit west of the 6z track. Need better resolution maps to see how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The only thing I have to lose is Yeoman's respect! What respect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks a bit west of the 6z track. Need better resolution maps to see how much. It seems more than "a bit" west in comparing the two maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So far it looks that the NAM is at least noticeably west of its last run. You guys near the bay are in for an interesting 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 BG&E doesn't seem to be extending the same courtesy.... I got a call from them yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It seems more than "a bit" west in comparing the two maps. My thoughts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM welcomes itself to the GFS/Euro party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It seems more than "a bit" west in comparing the two maps. My thoughts as well. Well I realize that 30mi is a potentially huge difference on impacts in our area, but a 30mi shift of a storm track at the 36 hour point is definitely near the noise level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM welcomes itself to the GFS/Euro party and I see why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 One more 30-50 W shift and we will get into some of the nicer bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So far it looks that the NAM is at least noticeably west of its last run. You guys near the bay are in for an interesting 48 hours. Hopefully this is a trend, but I'm not bringing up my hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 One more 30-50 W shift and we will get into some of the nicer bands. 30-50mi west shift would put Irene riding along the Bay. I wouldn't hold out your hopes on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 and I see why b/c the nam sucks at range and with coastals and with the tropics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJField Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Loving the predictablity. 1.25 - 7 inches of rain, total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 One more 30-50 W shift and we will get into some of the nicer bands. meh, it can stop right there, thank you I was up from 11PM-4:30AM bailing water out of the sump pit the night of Isabelle when I lost power although I now have a decent back up sump pump, I doubt that the battery will last long enough to prevent me from having to bail water again should we loose power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 30-50mi west shift would put Irene riding along the Bay. I wouldn't hold out your hopes on that. Yeah I'm gonna try not to but that's what DC would need to get into some of the real deal banding.....me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 meh, it can stop right there, thank you I was up from 11PM-4:30AM bailing water out of the sump pit the night of Isabelle when I lost power although I now have a decent back up sump pump, I doubt that the battery will last long enough to prevent me from having to bail water again should we loose power This is not specifically directed at you but folks in general - my aunt has been writing it "Isabelle" as well - driving me nuts for some reason Isabel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 b/c the nam sucks at range and with coastals and with the tropics? its dumping that trough deep out to our west not saying its right, just that "if" that 200mb map is right, Irene would do just as it depicts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is not specifically directed at you but folks in general - my aunt has been writing it "Isabelle" as well - driving me nuts for some reason Isabel! I had it right the first time, but the spell checker said it was wrong and so I corrected it we must have the same program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 b/c the nam sucks at range and with coastals and with the tropics? Do you have to douse my hopes of rain with every post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 One more 30-50 W shift and we will get into some of the nicer bands. Yup, was about to say the same thing. Would be nice if this was the start of a trend for the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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