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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Hard to believe we get tropical storm conditions here in DC based on last nights runs but hey you never know.

Well the Isobars are incredibly packed...though most interesting is the statement "Sustained 30-40mph" and "gusts to 45mph". Maybe not the usual gust events we're used to?

AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS

ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO

45 MPH.

MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES. RESIDENTS SHOULD

MOVE LOOSE ITEMS INDOORS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND OUTDOOR

FURNITURE...AS THEY WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. NEWLY PLANTED OR YOUNG

TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. ISOLATED

POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

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Just curious... when do we start abandoning the models and start now-casting for the Outer Banks and Delmarva areas? Just looking at the satellite, it seems for Irene to clip the outer banks like the GFS, she would have to start moving east of north pretty soon. I'll be watching for that easterly component.

6z GFS Shifted west with the landfall point and ended up 3-4hrs slower if that says anything about the situation we'll have a hard time knowing at this point.

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Following this storm is interesting and all, but I'm just not terribly invested in it. I am curious, though, about its effects in South Jersey, considering 97% of my immediate and extended family is there.

I think I'll go with my "call" from yesterday:

After all the talk of the storm ravaging the coast, we'll end up with 2" of rain and a nice breeze this far inland.

Might be a nice day.

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Following this storm is interesting and all, but I'm just not terribly invested in it. I am curious, though, about its effects in South Jersey, considering 97% of my immediate and extended family is there.

I think I'll go with my "call" from yesterday:

100% agree. I think D.C. is way overhyping this even for the I-95 area. Jersey is on my mind too since I have friends that live on Long Beach Island. This storm sounds awesome for my area though...1-2" of rain and only 25 mph winds. Considering I've had less than 4" since May 1, 2" in the bucket would be very welcome.

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100% agree. I think D.C. is way overhyping this even for the I-95 area. Jersey is on my mind too since I have friends that live on Long Beach Island. This storm sounds awesome for my area though...1-2" of rain and only 25 mph winds. Considering I've had less than 4" since May 1, 2" in the bucket would be very welcome.

Going to wedding in Plymouth Meeting this weekend. My family is from So. Jersey. Looking at all the boards, it seems that there may be a westerly bias in models. If this thing goes through the Pine Barrens it would be a nightmare, but it doesn't look like that is going to happen.

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100% agree. I think D.C. is way overhyping this even for the I-95 area. Jersey is on my mind too since I have friends that live on Long Beach Island. This storm sounds awesome for my area though...1-2" of rain and only 25 mph winds. Considering I've had less than 4" since May 1, 2" in the bucket would be very welcome.

Depends on the Track, if we see the eastward shift in the end (as usual/expected) definitely going to bust on the wind speeds.

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100% agree. I think D.C. is way overhyping this even for the I-95 area. Jersey is on my mind too since I have friends that live on Long Beach Island. This storm sounds awesome for my area though...1-2" of rain and only 25 mph winds. Considering I've had less than 4" since May 1, 2" in the bucket would be very welcome.

Ok, let's assume that all we get is 30 mph winds. This isn't Hawaii, where palm trees can sway in trade winds while people chase golf balls around volcanos. 30+ winds sustained will topple a fair number of trees, given the rain we've had, and that creates the usual list of problems. If we get 2+ inches on rain on top of that, people will see flooding and no pumps to get it away. Catasprophe? No. Disrupting? Yes. And, that's the LOW side of the forecast.

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Per LEK on the main model thread, the GFDL (for what it's worth) brings it up west of the Cheaspeake and then due north.

Yep. One other thing to note is that even if this doesn't increase back to Cat 3, the surge threat with Irene is severe....from the OBX all the way up through NE.

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Ok, let's assume that all we get is 30 mph winds. This isn't Hawaii, where palm trees can sway in trade winds while people chase golf balls around volcanos. 30+ winds sustained will topple a fair number of trees, given the rain we've had, and that creates the usual list of problems. If we get 2+ inches on rain on top of that, people will see flooding and no pumps to get it away. Catasprophe? No. Disrupting? Yes. And, that's the LOW side of the forecast.

No way a 30mph wind is going to topple "many" trees, certainly none of mine or any in the area. Soils up north are more Saturated than those in the DC area.

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Nor mine, since most of mine got taken down by the Microburst in July. But, I think you underestimate what medium-strong sustained winds can do to an oak tree.

July 2010? In that case hell yeah I agree there not much left to break after that. I think the bigger concern would be saturated grounds/compensated root systems not being able to withstand the constance pressure applied, if anything.

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July 2010? In that case hell yeah I agree there not much left to break after that. I think the bigger concern would be saturated grounds/compensated root systems not being able to withstand the constance pressure applied, if anything.

Well, that one too, but I was talking about July 2011. There was a microburst in Arlington/inner McLean that did a fair bit of damage, including to my house. Old Dominion Drive was closed for nearly a week given the trees that were down. Now, I'm not suggesting it will be that bad, but a couple hours of sustained 30+ on trees is going to cause a fair bit of damage, which it sounds like you agree that's potentially an issue if it rains too.

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I'm a bit skeptical of those west based models since Irene is already moving due North

that trough in the MW/GL is gonna' need to do a big time dip south for those models to verify

it's possible, but we'll need to wait until 0Z runs tonight to show it before they can be taken seriously over the further east solutions imho

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