BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hard to believe we get tropical storm conditions here in DC based on last nights runs but hey you never know. Well the Isobars are incredibly packed...though most interesting is the statement "Sustained 30-40mph" and "gusts to 45mph". Maybe not the usual gust events we're used to? AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE LOOSE ITEMS INDOORS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE...AS THEY WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. NEWLY PLANTED OR YOUNG TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just curious... when do we start abandoning the models and start now-casting for the Outer Banks and Delmarva areas? Just looking at the satellite, it seems for Irene to clip the outer banks like the GFS, she would have to start moving east of north pretty soon. I'll be watching for that easterly component. 6z GFS Shifted west with the landfall point and ended up 3-4hrs slower if that says anything about the situation we'll have a hard time knowing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How does the Ukie usually handle hurricanes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Following this storm is interesting and all, but I'm just not terribly invested in it. I am curious, though, about its effects in South Jersey, considering 97% of my immediate and extended family is there. I think I'll go with my "call" from yesterday: After all the talk of the storm ravaging the coast, we'll end up with 2" of rain and a nice breeze this far inland. Might be a nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Following this storm is interesting and all, but I'm just not terribly invested in it. I am curious, though, about its effects in South Jersey, considering 97% of my immediate and extended family is there. I think I'll go with my "call" from yesterday: 100% agree. I think D.C. is way overhyping this even for the I-95 area. Jersey is on my mind too since I have friends that live on Long Beach Island. This storm sounds awesome for my area though...1-2" of rain and only 25 mph winds. Considering I've had less than 4" since May 1, 2" in the bucket would be very welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 There are going to be cancellations galore. I would push departure up or leave today. Air travel under normal conditions is challenging enough. if her plane is coming in from somewhere in Irene's path, it may never get to DCA. personally I'd leave tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 100% agree. I think D.C. is way overhyping this even for the I-95 area. Jersey is on my mind too since I have friends that live on Long Beach Island. This storm sounds awesome for my area though...1-2" of rain and only 25 mph winds. Considering I've had less than 4" since May 1, 2" in the bucket would be very welcome. Going to wedding in Plymouth Meeting this weekend. My family is from So. Jersey. Looking at all the boards, it seems that there may be a westerly bias in models. If this thing goes through the Pine Barrens it would be a nightmare, but it doesn't look like that is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm thinking it is going to be a bit blowy where I am.. But nothing severe. Maybe a few nice gusts here and there. The flooding is going to be outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 100% agree. I think D.C. is way overhyping this even for the I-95 area. Jersey is on my mind too since I have friends that live on Long Beach Island. This storm sounds awesome for my area though...1-2" of rain and only 25 mph winds. Considering I've had less than 4" since May 1, 2" in the bucket would be very welcome. Depends on the Track, if we see the eastward shift in the end (as usual/expected) definitely going to bust on the wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per LEK on the main model thread, the GFDL (for what it's worth) brings it up west of the Cheaspeake and then due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 100% agree. I think D.C. is way overhyping this even for the I-95 area. Jersey is on my mind too since I have friends that live on Long Beach Island. This storm sounds awesome for my area though...1-2" of rain and only 25 mph winds. Considering I've had less than 4" since May 1, 2" in the bucket would be very welcome. Ok, let's assume that all we get is 30 mph winds. This isn't Hawaii, where palm trees can sway in trade winds while people chase golf balls around volcanos. 30+ winds sustained will topple a fair number of trees, given the rain we've had, and that creates the usual list of problems. If we get 2+ inches on rain on top of that, people will see flooding and no pumps to get it away. Catasprophe? No. Disrupting? Yes. And, that's the LOW side of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per LEK on the main model thread, the GFDL (for what it's worth) brings it up west of the Cheaspeake and then due north. Not good. But if we get more westerly shifts in other models, then, Houston, we have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per LEK on the main model thread, the GFDL (for what it's worth) brings it up west of the Cheaspeake and then due north. Yep. One other thing to note is that even if this doesn't increase back to Cat 3, the surge threat with Irene is severe....from the OBX all the way up through NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Ok, let's assume that all we get is 30 mph winds. This isn't Hawaii, where palm trees can sway in trade winds while people chase golf balls around volcanos. 30+ winds sustained will topple a fair number of trees, given the rain we've had, and that creates the usual list of problems. If we get 2+ inches on rain on top of that, people will see flooding and no pumps to get it away. Catasprophe? No. Disrupting? Yes. And, that's the LOW side of the forecast. No way a 30mph wind is going to topple "many" trees, certainly none of mine or any in the area. Soils up north are more Saturated than those in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No way a 30mph wind is going to topple "many" trees, certainly none of mine. You get 75 MPH gusts three times a week, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You get 75 MPH gusts three times a week, right? Must you troll me every given opportunity? And yeah thats about right...some weeks the gusts reach the 100mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not good. But if we get more westerly shifts in other models, then, Houston, we have a problem. Yeah, until the euro or GFS bites, I'm not buying it. I'm thinking 1-3" of rain here in DC/Arlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No way a 30mph wind is going to topple "many" trees, certainly none of mine or any in the area. Soils up north are more Saturated than those in the DC area. Nor mine, since most of mine got taken down by the Microburst in July. But, I think you underestimate what medium-strong sustained winds can do to an oak tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeromus-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If she doesn't strengthen back up quickly, that'd probably make a huge difference for the Hampton Roads area (SE VA). Right now it looks like we're in for an Isabel-style repeat to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If she doesn't strengthen back up quickly, that'd probably make a huge difference for the Hampton Roads area (SE VA). Right now it looks like we're in for an Isabel-style repeat to me. She still has to pass over the gulf stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nor mine, since most of mine got taken down by the Microburst in July. But, I think you underestimate what medium-strong sustained winds can do to an oak tree. July 2010? In that case hell yeah I agree there not much left to break after that. I think the bigger concern would be saturated grounds/compensated root systems not being able to withstand the constance pressure applied, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brubert Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Also it's not just saturdated ground that makes trees topple. All of the trees here are fully "leafed out" which gives the wind something else to grab hold to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So basically, this is just a normal rainy day with a breeze, ie comparable to the typical nor'easter? Much ado about nothing. My excitement level has crashed considerably Let's pray for the GFDL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 July 2010? In that case hell yeah I agree there not much left to break after that. I think the bigger concern would be saturated grounds/compensated root systems not being able to withstand the constance pressure applied, if anything. Well, that one too, but I was talking about July 2011. There was a microburst in Arlington/inner McLean that did a fair bit of damage, including to my house. Old Dominion Drive was closed for nearly a week given the trees that were down. Now, I'm not suggesting it will be that bad, but a couple hours of sustained 30+ on trees is going to cause a fair bit of damage, which it sounds like you agree that's potentially an issue if it rains too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My neighborhood (Fairlington) got hit pretty bad in July 2010 with the storms that came through...lots of trees down. I'm definitely parking my car away from trees this weekend since there are so many old Oak trees that line our neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dude the size of that pic almost crashed my PC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Thanks, Whiteout. So, say, 25-30k in the metro area, that might be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm a bit skeptical of those west based models since Irene is already moving due North that trough in the MW/GL is gonna' need to do a big time dip south for those models to verify it's possible, but we'll need to wait until 0Z runs tonight to show it before they can be taken seriously over the further east solutions imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 2-4" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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