BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nor mine, since most of mine got taken down by the Microburst in July. But, I think you underestimate what medium-strong sustained winds can do to an oak tree. July 2010? In that case hell yeah I agree there not much left to break after that. I think the bigger concern would be saturated grounds/compensated root systems not being able to withstand the constance pressure applied, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brubert Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Also it's not just saturdated ground that makes trees topple. All of the trees here are fully "leafed out" which gives the wind something else to grab hold to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So basically, this is just a normal rainy day with a breeze, ie comparable to the typical nor'easter? Much ado about nothing. My excitement level has crashed considerably Let's pray for the GFDL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 July 2010? In that case hell yeah I agree there not much left to break after that. I think the bigger concern would be saturated grounds/compensated root systems not being able to withstand the constance pressure applied, if anything. Well, that one too, but I was talking about July 2011. There was a microburst in Arlington/inner McLean that did a fair bit of damage, including to my house. Old Dominion Drive was closed for nearly a week given the trees that were down. Now, I'm not suggesting it will be that bad, but a couple hours of sustained 30+ on trees is going to cause a fair bit of damage, which it sounds like you agree that's potentially an issue if it rains too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My neighborhood (Fairlington) got hit pretty bad in July 2010 with the storms that came through...lots of trees down. I'm definitely parking my car away from trees this weekend since there are so many old Oak trees that line our neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dude the size of that pic almost crashed my PC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Thanks, Whiteout. So, say, 25-30k in the metro area, that might be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm a bit skeptical of those west based models since Irene is already moving due North that trough in the MW/GL is gonna' need to do a big time dip south for those models to verify it's possible, but we'll need to wait until 0Z runs tonight to show it before they can be taken seriously over the further east solutions imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 2-4" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 tho i may wait till sunday morning to make a call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 2-4" IMBY The high sun angle may play havoc with your forecast. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 The high sun angle may play havoc with your forecast. MDstorm I guess I stole NWS's... GFS/euro blend ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How about this one? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf-noaahfip/2011082600-irene09l/slp18.png LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Judging by the models that take her more easterly, she's going to have to start adding an easterly component to her track very soon. The more north she moves, the more it looks like it's going to be very hard to turn on that angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Judging by the models that take her more easterly, she's going to have to start adding an easterly component to her track very soon. The more north she moves, the more it looks like it's going to be very hard to turn on that angle. Eh...not necessarily - storms can take pretty sharp turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The high sun angle may play havoc with your forecast. MDstorm Maybe we'll get a little slizzle if we're lucky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How about this one? http://moe.met.fsu.e...ne09l/slp18.png LOL. if you look at this water vapor loop, its gonna have to cut NNW; I don't believe that happens, but I guess it shouldn't be ruled out until after tonight's runs http://www.ssd.noaa....na-wv-loop.html a due north trajectory from is current location brings it over Pamlico Sound (there goes my fav hotel on the OBX ) any easterly component to its northerly track now will result in the 0Z NAM solution imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 My family in South Jersey is mass e-mailing each other keeping track of the storm and making sure everyone is prepared. That's a good and responsible thing to do...until my aunts start weighing in with their own predictions and opinions. Of course, they're swayed by the hyping by local weathercasters and the clinging to each model run. Then, of course, the political discourse begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Eh...not necessarily - storms can take pretty sharp turns. Agreed (I'm thinking of Chraley), but in those cases there is usually more of a turning mechanism in place, such as a decent cold front. We don't really have that this time I don't think, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone get the PEPCO call? I hung up about 4 seconds in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loshjott Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I just got the Alert Montgomery email/text with the Tropical Storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Anyone get the PEPCO call? I hung up about 4 seconds in. They're calling to apologize in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What's with the forecast points on the NHC water vapor loop? Those can't be correct? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 They're calling to apologize in advance? pretty much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Eh...not necessarily - storms can take pretty sharp turns. Indeed but such a maneuver is not forecasted by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Indeed but such a maneuver is not forecasted by the models. I don't think hurricanes watch models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Indeed but such a maneuver is not forecasted by the models. Sooo...to be clear, you are saying that as long as the forecasts are RIGHT, you think the forecasts look like they might be WRONG. Gotcha. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 tho i may wait till sunday morning to make a call I've been strategically missing during most of the discussion. This is sort of like a winter snow storm in terms of how slight changes in track can lead to big changes in effects. Right now being a coward, I'd stick to the middle of the pack, sort of like NHC has done since then you can slide the forecast either way based on trends and what is actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosemont/old town Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 pretty much.. Just a quick question, but why did the odds of a tropical storm increase overnight with the model runs that have most here grumbling about another miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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