Deck Pic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 At this pt maintaining a track is good. We aren't 10 days out anymore. There should be some middle ground between waiting till it happens and freaking out that the GFS is minutely different. the models are mostly just faster than they were....I'm not sure what the euro can tell us unless it changes dramatically..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I've lived in DC/Baltimore since around 2000, and every tropical system has always seemed to underperform compared to what was expected/forecast. The exception was Isabel's surge, but even the winds for Isabel, to me, seemed less than had been forecast in Baltimore. I remember Floyd and the predictions of wind/major flooding never really happened around here. And then various other tropical systems that just always seemed to turn out to be nothing, including one a few years ago where we were under tropical storm warnings but it was sunny all day with only the passing shower and wind gust. The point is, anything can happen, and the forecasts for these things never are that reliable, so we should also just see where this takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 the models are mostly just faster than they were....I'm not sure what the euro can tell us unless it changes dramatically..... it's pretty east of track right now.. i wonder what all the people headed to nc will do if it misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 CMC is ok on color maps... lot of rain 36 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_036.jpg 48 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg 60 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_060.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Do we actually? Tracks up near/on the Delmarva if I'm reading it right, pretty sure my Cache is cleared too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Pcloudy FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 it's pretty east of track right now.. i wonder what all the people headed to nc will do if it misses. I think people should go to Long Island if they want a direct hit outscoring other models does not mean the Euro will be more correct at this range....Not sure how to quantify it, but if the Euro is going to be more correct with the track at this range say 57% of the time, that is a dominant model that will crush its competition in verification scores....but it will still be more wrong 4 times out of 10.....people think the because the Euro is a superior model, and it is...It is the best model there is......that on any given run in a certain range that it will be the most "correct" like 80% of the time....that's not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think people should go to Long Island if they want a direct hit outscoring other models does not mean the Euro will be more correct at this range....Not sure how to quantify it, but if the Euro is going to be more correct with the track at this range say 57% of the time, that is a dominant model that will crush its competition in verification scores....but it will still be more wrong 4 times out of 10.....people think the because the Euro is a superior model, and it is...It is the best model there is......that on any given run in a certain range that it will be the most "correct" like 80% of the time....that's not true A lot of the time in winter when the Euro wins..its not because its exact solution was correct, its because it was better like a 70/30 or 60/40 weight. I think that is probably the case here. I could see it having the right idea with holding ti west a bit, but still too far west when talking about exact verbatim solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think people should go to Long Island if they want a direct hit i think i agree.. i just posted in josh's thread he should go to northern play (though i guess he's in nyc..)<br> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A lot of the time in winter when the Euro wins..its not because its exact solution was correct, its because it was better like a 70/30 or 60/40 weight. I think that is probably the case here. I could see it having the right idea with holding ti west a bit, but still too far west when talking about exact verbatim solutions. Maybe it is because I am a snow guy, but this is one of the stupidest times to be IMBY about an event imo.....these events are rare....it is going to be a big impact event in a lot of places...exactly where is TBD....but I could honestly give a crap if I get fringed.....I'd prefer to see heavy rain, but this is a silly event to keep score on like we do on snow.....perhaps it is because the heaviest impacts aren't particularly desirable....agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe it is because I am a snow guy, but this is one of the stupidest times to be IMBY about an event imo.....these events are rare....it is going to be a big impact event in a lot of places...exactly where is TBD....but I could honestly give a crap if I get fringed.....I'd prefer to see heavy rain, but this is a silly event to keep score on like we do on snow.....perhaps it is because the heaviest impacts aren't particularly desirable....agree? Yes, its not a "haha, we got hit and you didn't" event. These are once in a decade type events. They usually trend E and climo is pretty strong on them even with a fairly limited sample size. DC will be close to an extreme obscene cutoff for heavy rain but my gut says E will get the brunt and DC probably just a run of the mill heavy rain event with 1-3 inches....but given the gradient, it could easily be 6 inches for DCA while dulles gets 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yes, its not a "haha, we got hit and you didn't" event. These are once in a decade type events. They usually trend E and climo is pretty strong on them even with a fairly limited sample size. DC will be close to an extreme obscene cutoff for heavy rain but my gut says E will get the brunt and DC probably just a run of the mill heavy rain event with 1-3 inches....but given the gradient, it could easily be 6 inches for DCA while dulles gets 1.5". I'd be happy with 2".....hurricanes are pretty destructive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well ECMWF Landfall at or just SW of Cape Hatteras moving NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well ECMWF Landfall at or just SW of Cape Hatteras moving NNE. what does QPF look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per CoastalWx who just responded to my PM query about locations of Irene on the 00z EURO: 48 is just west of HSE. 54 is about 20 miles east of Wallops Island. 60 is practically on Cape May, 66 at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 what does QPF look like? For some reason I'm not getting QPF data attm but it is likely less than 12Z at the storm tracks about 30 miles to the East this time. Could Potentially get quite windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per CoastalWx who just responded to my PM query about locations of Irene on the 00z EURO: so faster and slightly west of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 so faster and slightly west of the GFS Indeed zwyts, the Euro solution is probably right around what we'll end up with here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 QPF per CoastalWx Maybe 3-4" for DCA and 5" for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 QPF per CoastalWx thanks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Indeed zwyts, the Euro solution is probably right around what we'll end up with here. Based on... I'd be fine with the Euro track but it is far from settled could still fly a good 30 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 QPF per CoastalWx GFS was 1.18".... no way I could make a confident call yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Struggling with iPhone images. Looks from comments here and elsewhere that it has sped up on the guidance. Wife is supposed to leave DCA close to 7pm Sat to join me in MN. Should she be trying to hop on an earlier flight? I see the text GFS is starting to ramp up the 850 winds at that time, but doesn't really get us going until after midnight. Does that jive with the others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Tropical Storm Warning Issued for much of the CWA Along with a Flash Flood Watch NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. .AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND TIDAL POTOMAC. .WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...HARFORD... MONTGOMERY...HOWARD...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...ANNE ARUNDEL...CHARLES...ST. MARYS...CALVERT...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...STAFFORD...SPOTSYLVANIA AND KING GEORGE. Flash flood Watch: HEAVY RAINS FROM HURRICANE IRENE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARD OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The 6z GFS is mostly the same as 0z, except the western cutoff is slightly less sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The 6z GFS is mostly the same as 0z, except the western cutoff is slightly less sharp. It is also slower by 3+hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 LWX overly bullish on the winds Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 81. Windy, with a east wind 6 to 9 mph increasing to between 25 and 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 68. North wind 34 to 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The 6z GFS is mostly the same as 0z, except the western cutoff is slightly less sharp. looked a little more W to me but not sure it matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hard to believe we get tropical storm conditions here in DC based on last nights runs but hey you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just curious... when do we start abandoning the models and start now-casting for the Outer Banks and Delmarva areas? Just looking at the satellite, it seems for Irene to clip the outer banks like the GFS, she would have to start moving east of north pretty soon. I'll be watching for that easterly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.