yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 QPF per CoastalWx Maybe 3-4" for DCA and 5" for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Indeed zwyts, the Euro solution is probably right around what we'll end up with here. Based on... I'd be fine with the Euro track but it is far from settled could still fly a good 30 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Struggling with iPhone images. Looks from comments here and elsewhere that it has sped up on the guidance. Wife is supposed to leave DCA close to 7pm Sat to join me in MN. Should she be trying to hop on an earlier flight? I see the text GFS is starting to ramp up the 850 winds at that time, but doesn't really get us going until after midnight. Does that jive with the others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Tropical Storm Warning Issued for much of the CWA Along with a Flash Flood Watch NEW INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. .AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND TIDAL POTOMAC. .WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...HARFORD... MONTGOMERY...HOWARD...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...ANNE ARUNDEL...CHARLES...ST. MARYS...CALVERT...PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...STAFFORD...SPOTSYLVANIA AND KING GEORGE. Flash flood Watch: HEAVY RAINS FROM HURRICANE IRENE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARD OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The 6z GFS is mostly the same as 0z, except the western cutoff is slightly less sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The 6z GFS is mostly the same as 0z, except the western cutoff is slightly less sharp. It is also slower by 3+hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 LWX overly bullish on the winds Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 81. Windy, with a east wind 6 to 9 mph increasing to between 25 and 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 68. North wind 34 to 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The 6z GFS is mostly the same as 0z, except the western cutoff is slightly less sharp. looked a little more W to me but not sure it matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hard to believe we get tropical storm conditions here in DC based on last nights runs but hey you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just curious... when do we start abandoning the models and start now-casting for the Outer Banks and Delmarva areas? Just looking at the satellite, it seems for Irene to clip the outer banks like the GFS, she would have to start moving east of north pretty soon. I'll be watching for that easterly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hard to believe we get tropical storm conditions here in DC based on last nights runs but hey you never know. Well the Isobars are incredibly packed...though most interesting is the statement "Sustained 30-40mph" and "gusts to 45mph". Maybe not the usual gust events we're used to? AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE LOOSE ITEMS INDOORS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE...AS THEY WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. NEWLY PLANTED OR YOUNG TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just curious... when do we start abandoning the models and start now-casting for the Outer Banks and Delmarva areas? Just looking at the satellite, it seems for Irene to clip the outer banks like the GFS, she would have to start moving east of north pretty soon. I'll be watching for that easterly component. 6z GFS Shifted west with the landfall point and ended up 3-4hrs slower if that says anything about the situation we'll have a hard time knowing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How does the Ukie usually handle hurricanes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Following this storm is interesting and all, but I'm just not terribly invested in it. I am curious, though, about its effects in South Jersey, considering 97% of my immediate and extended family is there. I think I'll go with my "call" from yesterday: After all the talk of the storm ravaging the coast, we'll end up with 2" of rain and a nice breeze this far inland. Might be a nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Following this storm is interesting and all, but I'm just not terribly invested in it. I am curious, though, about its effects in South Jersey, considering 97% of my immediate and extended family is there. I think I'll go with my "call" from yesterday: 100% agree. I think D.C. is way overhyping this even for the I-95 area. Jersey is on my mind too since I have friends that live on Long Beach Island. This storm sounds awesome for my area though...1-2" of rain and only 25 mph winds. Considering I've had less than 4" since May 1, 2" in the bucket would be very welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 There are going to be cancellations galore. I would push departure up or leave today. Air travel under normal conditions is challenging enough. if her plane is coming in from somewhere in Irene's path, it may never get to DCA. personally I'd leave tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 100% agree. I think D.C. is way overhyping this even for the I-95 area. Jersey is on my mind too since I have friends that live on Long Beach Island. This storm sounds awesome for my area though...1-2" of rain and only 25 mph winds. Considering I've had less than 4" since May 1, 2" in the bucket would be very welcome. Going to wedding in Plymouth Meeting this weekend. My family is from So. Jersey. Looking at all the boards, it seems that there may be a westerly bias in models. If this thing goes through the Pine Barrens it would be a nightmare, but it doesn't look like that is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'm thinking it is going to be a bit blowy where I am.. But nothing severe. Maybe a few nice gusts here and there. The flooding is going to be outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 100% agree. I think D.C. is way overhyping this even for the I-95 area. Jersey is on my mind too since I have friends that live on Long Beach Island. This storm sounds awesome for my area though...1-2" of rain and only 25 mph winds. Considering I've had less than 4" since May 1, 2" in the bucket would be very welcome. Depends on the Track, if we see the eastward shift in the end (as usual/expected) definitely going to bust on the wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per LEK on the main model thread, the GFDL (for what it's worth) brings it up west of the Cheaspeake and then due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 100% agree. I think D.C. is way overhyping this even for the I-95 area. Jersey is on my mind too since I have friends that live on Long Beach Island. This storm sounds awesome for my area though...1-2" of rain and only 25 mph winds. Considering I've had less than 4" since May 1, 2" in the bucket would be very welcome. Ok, let's assume that all we get is 30 mph winds. This isn't Hawaii, where palm trees can sway in trade winds while people chase golf balls around volcanos. 30+ winds sustained will topple a fair number of trees, given the rain we've had, and that creates the usual list of problems. If we get 2+ inches on rain on top of that, people will see flooding and no pumps to get it away. Catasprophe? No. Disrupting? Yes. And, that's the LOW side of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per LEK on the main model thread, the GFDL (for what it's worth) brings it up west of the Cheaspeake and then due north. Not good. But if we get more westerly shifts in other models, then, Houston, we have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per LEK on the main model thread, the GFDL (for what it's worth) brings it up west of the Cheaspeake and then due north. Yep. One other thing to note is that even if this doesn't increase back to Cat 3, the surge threat with Irene is severe....from the OBX all the way up through NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Ok, let's assume that all we get is 30 mph winds. This isn't Hawaii, where palm trees can sway in trade winds while people chase golf balls around volcanos. 30+ winds sustained will topple a fair number of trees, given the rain we've had, and that creates the usual list of problems. If we get 2+ inches on rain on top of that, people will see flooding and no pumps to get it away. Catasprophe? No. Disrupting? Yes. And, that's the LOW side of the forecast. No way a 30mph wind is going to topple "many" trees, certainly none of mine or any in the area. Soils up north are more Saturated than those in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No way a 30mph wind is going to topple "many" trees, certainly none of mine. You get 75 MPH gusts three times a week, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You get 75 MPH gusts three times a week, right? Must you troll me every given opportunity? And yeah thats about right...some weeks the gusts reach the 100mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not good. But if we get more westerly shifts in other models, then, Houston, we have a problem. Yeah, until the euro or GFS bites, I'm not buying it. I'm thinking 1-3" of rain here in DC/Arlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No way a 30mph wind is going to topple "many" trees, certainly none of mine or any in the area. Soils up north are more Saturated than those in the DC area. Nor mine, since most of mine got taken down by the Microburst in July. But, I think you underestimate what medium-strong sustained winds can do to an oak tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeromus-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If she doesn't strengthen back up quickly, that'd probably make a huge difference for the Hampton Roads area (SE VA). Right now it looks like we're in for an Isabel-style repeat to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 If she doesn't strengthen back up quickly, that'd probably make a huge difference for the Hampton Roads area (SE VA). Right now it looks like we're in for an Isabel-style repeat to me. She still has to pass over the gulf stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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