mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Welp, considering I live on a swamp a couple hundred feet from the ocean, I'll be evacuating tomorrow. Wish I could stay. leave, and stay safe the mosquitoes will be there when you return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS looks east. Through 54, I was thinking it looks like about the same track, just a smidge more north, or faster. I should add that I was comparing it to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Lolz At least the east trend started now i guess. Gonna have to be on Delmarva for anything good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I was wondering why all the models were coming in way later than in the winter... then i remembered.... daylight savings time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Isn't this basically where the GFS was at 12z? Central LI? Not like it's suddenly making landfall in Massachusetts. It's east of the Euro, but it's always been east of the Euro. Not great for DC if that's what you want, but doesn't seem to be any great shift. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 00z is Winder than 18z in DC, but much drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dave trying to convince otherwise ***ALERT *** ALERT 0Z GFS RUN IS OUT TO 72 HRS... 0Z GFS TAKE IRENE AGAIN WEST...REPEAT WEST OF HATTERAS at SAT 2PM EDT over sandbrudge VA/ Ngas Head and 50 mies east of the CBBT at SAT 7PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 proof that there's something to be said about a line of strong thunderstorms on radar approaching from the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Oh well, at least this is nothing compared to being fringed by a major snowstorm (in terms of disappointment). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dave trying to convince otherwise ***ALERT *** ALERT 0Z GFS RUN IS OUT TO 72 HRS... 0Z GFS TAKE IRENE AGAIN WEST...REPEAT WEST OF HATTERAS at SAT 2PM EDT over sandbrudge VA/ Ngas Head and 50 mies east of the CBBT at SAT 7PM... even if it is, and I'm not saying it is, GFS is still weaker for our area this has 12/26/10 written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 At least the east trend started now i guess. Gonna have to be on Delmarva for anything good i think too much reading into slight moves.. nothing really changed this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 even if it is, and I'm not saying it is, GFS is still weaker for our area this has 12/26/10 written all over it Dave is trying hard to tell me to stick with EURO... that it will show the same track tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 proof that there's something to be said about a line of strong thunderstorms on radar approaching from the west huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i think too much reading into slight moves.. nothing really changed this run I think there is a very fine line here on that NE step-jog it takes after the Hatteras landfall, still hard to think models have the phasing & re-location accurate at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 this has 12/26/10 written all over it I know Ian posted earlier that he is tired of the comparisons to winter storms, and I generally agree. It is kind of funny how similar the situation is to the Boxing Day event though. For the 12/26/10 event, we were interested initially when the models looked favorable for us...then the big east shift after the Euro finally caved to the GFS. Then the Christmas Eve/First half of Christmas Day surprise when all the models suddenly trended west and everyone was getting hopeful for at least WSW criteria snows before the final shift east again late Christmas Day/on the actual day of the event. Kind of the same thing here. Most had kind of given up before the beginning of a west trend yesterday evening that had many thinking a somewhat widespread 3-5" and isolated 6" was a possibility (even with the sharp cutoff, western burbs still looked ok for the lower end). Now the GFS QPF output has dropped some on two consecutive runs, and the Euro shifted east some at 12z (and probably will again tonight, if only by a little). Again, it's still anyone's guess as to what will happen. I think it's safe to say though that things don't look quite as good tonight as they did this morning if you are hoping for major rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is like watching you guys in the winter.. But it still seems to be the same standard model pattern that it always seems to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think there is a very fine line here on that NE step-jog it takes after the Hatteras landfall, still hard to think models have the phasing & re-location accurate at this point. there's no phasing and relocation this is a fully formed deep low pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is like watching you guys in the winter.. But it still seems to be the same standard model pattern that it always seems to be. I think there's more truth to that than most other comparisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Ukie the save? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=42&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 People sure are being stupid on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 there's no phasing and relocation this is a fully formed deep low pressure huh? Irene is captured by troughing on its way up north... "Feeling the weakness" so to speak, after it hits Hatteras it takes a NE Jog and the speed of Irene would be a big deal in determining the exact timable of this no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well the UKMET is still with us, FWIW... which is basically nothing... but tonights EURO is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 huh? Irene is captured by troughing on its way up north... "Feeling the weakness" so to speak, after it hits Hatteras it takes a NE Jog and the speed of Irene would be a big deal in determining the exact timable of this no? it's not phasing.. key words are only cool when you use them right. i think 'feeling the weakness' so to speak would have been better to go with originally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FWIW Tropical Storm Warning Re-Issued at 60% ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 60 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL UPWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well the UKMET is still with us, FWIW... which is basically nothing... but tonights EURO is huge not really.....not at least in determining the outcome.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 not really.....not at least in determining the outcome.... true... but I would like it to at least hold in its modeled path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well the UKMET is still with us, FWIW... which is basically nothing... but tonights EURO is huge At least we have the NOGAPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 not really.....not at least in determining the outcome.... At this pt maintaining a track is good. We aren't 10 days out anymore. There should be some middle ground between waiting till it happens and freaking out that the GFS is minutely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 At least we have the NOGAPS... Do we actually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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