Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 At least the east trend started now i guess. Gonna have to be on Delmarva for anything good i think too much reading into slight moves.. nothing really changed this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 even if it is, and I'm not saying it is, GFS is still weaker for our area this has 12/26/10 written all over it Dave is trying hard to tell me to stick with EURO... that it will show the same track tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 proof that there's something to be said about a line of strong thunderstorms on radar approaching from the west huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i think too much reading into slight moves.. nothing really changed this run I think there is a very fine line here on that NE step-jog it takes after the Hatteras landfall, still hard to think models have the phasing & re-location accurate at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 this has 12/26/10 written all over it I know Ian posted earlier that he is tired of the comparisons to winter storms, and I generally agree. It is kind of funny how similar the situation is to the Boxing Day event though. For the 12/26/10 event, we were interested initially when the models looked favorable for us...then the big east shift after the Euro finally caved to the GFS. Then the Christmas Eve/First half of Christmas Day surprise when all the models suddenly trended west and everyone was getting hopeful for at least WSW criteria snows before the final shift east again late Christmas Day/on the actual day of the event. Kind of the same thing here. Most had kind of given up before the beginning of a west trend yesterday evening that had many thinking a somewhat widespread 3-5" and isolated 6" was a possibility (even with the sharp cutoff, western burbs still looked ok for the lower end). Now the GFS QPF output has dropped some on two consecutive runs, and the Euro shifted east some at 12z (and probably will again tonight, if only by a little). Again, it's still anyone's guess as to what will happen. I think it's safe to say though that things don't look quite as good tonight as they did this morning if you are hoping for major rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is like watching you guys in the winter.. But it still seems to be the same standard model pattern that it always seems to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think there is a very fine line here on that NE step-jog it takes after the Hatteras landfall, still hard to think models have the phasing & re-location accurate at this point. there's no phasing and relocation this is a fully formed deep low pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 This is like watching you guys in the winter.. But it still seems to be the same standard model pattern that it always seems to be. I think there's more truth to that than most other comparisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Ukie the save? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=42&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 People sure are being stupid on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 there's no phasing and relocation this is a fully formed deep low pressure huh? Irene is captured by troughing on its way up north... "Feeling the weakness" so to speak, after it hits Hatteras it takes a NE Jog and the speed of Irene would be a big deal in determining the exact timable of this no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well the UKMET is still with us, FWIW... which is basically nothing... but tonights EURO is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 huh? Irene is captured by troughing on its way up north... "Feeling the weakness" so to speak, after it hits Hatteras it takes a NE Jog and the speed of Irene would be a big deal in determining the exact timable of this no? it's not phasing.. key words are only cool when you use them right. i think 'feeling the weakness' so to speak would have been better to go with originally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 FWIW Tropical Storm Warning Re-Issued at 60% ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 60 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL UPWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 not really.....not at least in determining the outcome.... true... but I would like it to at least hold in its modeled path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well the UKMET is still with us, FWIW... which is basically nothing... but tonights EURO is huge At least we have the NOGAPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 not really.....not at least in determining the outcome.... At this pt maintaining a track is good. We aren't 10 days out anymore. There should be some middle ground between waiting till it happens and freaking out that the GFS is minutely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 At least we have the NOGAPS... Do we actually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I've lived in DC/Baltimore since around 2000, and every tropical system has always seemed to underperform compared to what was expected/forecast. The exception was Isabel's surge, but even the winds for Isabel, to me, seemed less than had been forecast in Baltimore. I remember Floyd and the predictions of wind/major flooding never really happened around here. And then various other tropical systems that just always seemed to turn out to be nothing, including one a few years ago where we were under tropical storm warnings but it was sunny all day with only the passing shower and wind gust. The point is, anything can happen, and the forecasts for these things never are that reliable, so we should also just see where this takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 the models are mostly just faster than they were....I'm not sure what the euro can tell us unless it changes dramatically..... it's pretty east of track right now.. i wonder what all the people headed to nc will do if it misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 CMC is ok on color maps... lot of rain 36 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_036.jpg 48 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg 60 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_060.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Do we actually? Tracks up near/on the Delmarva if I'm reading it right, pretty sure my Cache is cleared too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Pcloudy FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think people should go to Long Island if they want a direct hit outscoring other models does not mean the Euro will be more correct at this range....Not sure how to quantify it, but if the Euro is going to be more correct with the track at this range say 57% of the time, that is a dominant model that will crush its competition in verification scores....but it will still be more wrong 4 times out of 10.....people think the because the Euro is a superior model, and it is...It is the best model there is......that on any given run in a certain range that it will be the most "correct" like 80% of the time....that's not true A lot of the time in winter when the Euro wins..its not because its exact solution was correct, its because it was better like a 70/30 or 60/40 weight. I think that is probably the case here. I could see it having the right idea with holding ti west a bit, but still too far west when talking about exact verbatim solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think people should go to Long Island if they want a direct hit i think i agree.. i just posted in josh's thread he should go to northern play (though i guess he's in nyc..)<br> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maybe it is because I am a snow guy, but this is one of the stupidest times to be IMBY about an event imo.....these events are rare....it is going to be a big impact event in a lot of places...exactly where is TBD....but I could honestly give a crap if I get fringed.....I'd prefer to see heavy rain, but this is a silly event to keep score on like we do on snow.....perhaps it is because the heaviest impacts aren't particularly desirable....agree? Yes, its not a "haha, we got hit and you didn't" event. These are once in a decade type events. They usually trend E and climo is pretty strong on them even with a fairly limited sample size. DC will be close to an extreme obscene cutoff for heavy rain but my gut says E will get the brunt and DC probably just a run of the mill heavy rain event with 1-3 inches....but given the gradient, it could easily be 6 inches for DCA while dulles gets 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Well ECMWF Landfall at or just SW of Cape Hatteras moving NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Per CoastalWx who just responded to my PM query about locations of Irene on the 00z EURO: 48 is just west of HSE. 54 is about 20 miles east of Wallops Island. 60 is practically on Cape May, 66 at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 what does QPF look like? For some reason I'm not getting QPF data attm but it is likely less than 12Z at the storm tracks about 30 miles to the East this time. Could Potentially get quite windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 so faster and slightly west of the GFS Indeed zwyts, the Euro solution is probably right around what we'll end up with here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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