Swiscaster Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I believe the NAM, or whatever model shows the least interesting solution for DC. My pessimistic policy has served me well, except that everyone hates me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 people don't really learn....with a tropical system we need a proper track and/or rain that isn't associated with the storm (i.e frontrunning precip or associated with a front).....the track will keep shifting....we could get totally screwed.....Isabel looked like a lock for massive rain and we got 2"-ish.....why are people getting deterministic with this storm?....Who has the balls to say they have no idea what will happen?....I do....I have no idea what will happen...We could get 6" of rain or 1"....I don't know and I won't know until it happens...I may have a better idea tomorrow night.......There is not a single person including mets who I think know what impacts will be in DC...none..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gonzo Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NHC stays strong with forecast track: THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS READY TO INTERACT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IRENE HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT NORTHWARD WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES OR PASSES NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...GIVING NO REASON TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 a system moving NW to NE isn't going to throw precip way west of the low center..We don't have the proper longitude for a coastal brush....Can we get frontrunning bands that aren't well modeled? or maybe some interaction with a s/w from the north or west?....That is our best hope.....A poor track isn't going to throw 6"+ over DC metro.... the gfs and euro have been relatively consistent.. they both have pretty decent tracks. if the low is right along (+/-) the coast we'd be fine. if it's further out we'd need more luck for sure. the nam could be onto something but i have no reason to think much a bout it in comparo to the euro/gfs. i did say sometime earlier i wanted more west shifts because of the seemingly inevitable tick back east at the end. so, it's hard to be confident in much i suppose. hpc is wet though and they bumped in dc for the evening package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Pressure down to 942 and moving N at 14 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 since we're giving the nam lip service and yoda is missing in action, here's sref which is well west with decent precip compared to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What I don't have a good sense of, and I don't think many in DC-Baltimore have, is the likely wind? Any scenario where it approaches Isabel as a high-end tropical storm? Or is it possible we don't even get the tropical storm watch upgraded to a tropical storm warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What I don't have a good sense of, and I don't think many in DC-Baltimore have, is the likely wind? Any scenario where it approaches Isabel as a high-end tropical storm? Or is it possible we don't even get the tropical storm watch upgraded to a tropical storm warning? lol - an upgrade is never definite. That's the whole point of a watch "conditions are possible" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 not me, up here we've had a very rainy year. all weather, like politics, is local. but west of the Blue Ridge we've haven't been under the gun ever vis-a-vis Irene. "up here" is very, very localized per the precipitation analysis on water.weather.gov. A small donut hole over the I-81 stretch of WV is almost running normal precip this summer. Just about everybody Frederick/Loudon and West are in a Moderate Drought per the U.S. drought monitor. We are 5-7" below normal this year. I'm sure we'll get our quarter inch of rain which will evaporate when the sun peaks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I wasn't here for Isabel nor do I really even know what winds were sustained. But the DC area was in the right front quad for Isabel which is much more favorable for wind. If you got screwed on rain it's probably because it went further southwest of here than planned? Rain (or lack of) is the main story except right near the coast probably though with a track inland a bit we could get near TS force sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 since we're giving the nam lip service and yoda is missing in action, here's sref which is well west with decent precip compared to the nam Models much more consistent and in much better agreement with the precip shield than they are with the track of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 since we're giving the nam lip service and yoda is missing in action, here's sref which is well west with decent precip compared to the nam 60 hrs SREF? tisk, tisk (just bustin' yer ballz) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Alas. This is the case. "up here" is very, very localized per the precipitation analysis on water.weather.gov. A small donut hole over the I-81 stretch of WV is almost running normal precip this summer. Just about everybody Frederick/Loudon and West are in a Moderate Drought per the U.S. drought monitor. We are 5-7" below normal this year. I'm sure we'll get our quarter inch of rain which will evaporate when the sun peaks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 people don't really learn....with a tropical system we need a proper track and/or rain that isn't associated with the storm (i.e frontrunning precip or associated with a front).....the track will keep shifting....we could get totally screwed.....Isabel looked like a lock for massive rain and we got 2"-ish.....why are people getting deterministic with this storm?....Who has the balls to say they have no idea what will happen?....I do....I have no idea what will happen...We could get 6" of rain or 1"....I don't know and I won't know until it happens...I may have a better idea tomorrow night.......There is not a single person including mets who I think know what impacts will be in DC...none..... wow - common sense lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I would have liked Irene to have come further west before the due north turn. 77.3 W longitude is probably not going to cut it for northen VA/central MD. Most of the guidance suggest at least some easterly component to Irene's motion once it makes landfall in NC. Even the latest Euro suggested that. At this rate, that would put a lot of us on the western fringe. Now if any of the earlier Euro runs (which showed an almost due north movement from NC into PA ) verified, then we would be in business. I'm afraid, though, that there is likely to be some easterly component to Irene after landfall and starting at 77.3 W is not going to be west enough. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No, precip shield has been all over the place too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USN Ben Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Welp, considering I live on a swamp a couple hundred feet from the ocean, I'll be evacuating tomorrow. Wish I could stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS looks east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Oh well.. maybe next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Welp, considering I live on a swamp a couple hundred feet from the ocean, I'll be evacuating tomorrow. Wish I could stay. leave, and stay safe the mosquitoes will be there when you return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFS looks east. Through 54, I was thinking it looks like about the same track, just a smidge more north, or faster. I should add that I was comparing it to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Lolz At least the east trend started now i guess. Gonna have to be on Delmarva for anything good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I was wondering why all the models were coming in way later than in the winter... then i remembered.... daylight savings time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Isn't this basically where the GFS was at 12z? Central LI? Not like it's suddenly making landfall in Massachusetts. It's east of the Euro, but it's always been east of the Euro. Not great for DC if that's what you want, but doesn't seem to be any great shift. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 00z is Winder than 18z in DC, but much drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dave trying to convince otherwise ***ALERT *** ALERT 0Z GFS RUN IS OUT TO 72 HRS... 0Z GFS TAKE IRENE AGAIN WEST...REPEAT WEST OF HATTERAS at SAT 2PM EDT over sandbrudge VA/ Ngas Head and 50 mies east of the CBBT at SAT 7PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 proof that there's something to be said about a line of strong thunderstorms on radar approaching from the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Oh well, at least this is nothing compared to being fringed by a major snowstorm (in terms of disappointment). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dave trying to convince otherwise ***ALERT *** ALERT 0Z GFS RUN IS OUT TO 72 HRS... 0Z GFS TAKE IRENE AGAIN WEST...REPEAT WEST OF HATTERAS at SAT 2PM EDT over sandbrudge VA/ Ngas Head and 50 mies east of the CBBT at SAT 7PM... even if it is, and I'm not saying it is, GFS is still weaker for our area this has 12/26/10 written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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