Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 So, does anyone here want to talk about the forecast? Pretty silent here for the last couple hours. the board was down for like 8 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 the board was down for like 8 hours Yeah because Ian blew the server up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 the board was down for like 8 hours my apologies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah because Ian blew the server up. i dunno much right now.. i guess the "east shift" should be a blow but it seems within the realm of expected wobbles in guidance. euro has 4"+ almost to the blue ridge and has last 3 runs... last night was wetter further west. if i had to guess, 0z gfs will allay some fears. looking at this thing.. it's going to have no trouble wanting to transition if/once it feels some land. the western half of it already looks primed based on the microwave imagery. if it hits nc more than a brush i think we might be fine for decent to big rain back to dc at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Appreciate the support How much rain did you get up your way today? Don't know, I was at work. The driveway was still wet at 5 though. I'm hoping we can get the best of both worlds this weekend, rain with no wind or flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i dunno much right now.. i guess the "east shift" should be a blow but it seems within the realm of expected wobbles in guidance. euro has 4"+ almost to the blue ridge and has last 3 runs... last night was wetter further west. if i had to guess, 0z gfs will allay some fears. looking at this thing.. it's going to have no trouble wanting to transition if/once it feels some land. the western half of it already looks primed based on the microwave imagery. if it hits nc more than a brush i think we might be fine for decent to big rain back to dc at least. Ian, along those lines, if it were to stay over NC for a time and weaken, would that allow the precip shield to spread out and help lessen that sharp cutoff to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Somebody on my news feed just said "tornado irene" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dry air working its way into the NW quadrant of the storm. Not sure how much impact that will have, but worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Ian, along those lines, if it were to stay over NC for a time and weaken, would that allow the precip shield to spread out and help lessen that sharp cutoff to the west? im not completely sure on specifics but it seems like it would. at our point in the track what we probably wont most is for it to be as transitory as possible. once it goes that way i dont think it's coming back even if it managed to get itself over a good stretch of water. plus, more simply, the further west it is in nc the closer it will be to us when it passes. back as far west as you are im not sure i'd hold out lots of hope for super big rain, but i dont see why you cant get some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I am on travel in Portsmouth, NH and have not had a chance to monitor this storm much and I need quick info: did the storm track jog back east on the models since this afternoon? Not sure if I should fly back to DC tomorrow to get back to the family or stay up here until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I am on travel in Portsmouth, NH and have not had a chance to monitor this storm much and I need quick info: did the storm track jog back east on the models since this afternoon? Not sure if I should fly back to DC tomorrow to get back to the family or stay up here until Sunday. Meh...if you try to fly home from NH on Sunday, I'm not sure you'll be flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NAM looks west do other think that? And can I get of 5 post max and how? Thanks to whoever can help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I haven't followed this closely other than local qpf, etc., but it sure looks to me that there is a trough to the east of Irene that's starting to effect Irene's outflow and otherwise encroach to a point of disturbing it http://wxweb.meteost...tellite/AON/WV/ anyone know if that trough to the east of Irene was on the models all along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene LOOKS NW at 00z NAM at 36 on h5 when you comapre it to the 18z 42 h5 map... but I dunno if thats because it sped up or not... we shall see what the later frames reveal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene LOOKS NW at 00z NAM at 36 on h5 when you comapre it to the 18z 42 h5 map... but I dunno if thats because it sped up or not... we shall see what the later frames reveal definitely faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 wut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 the board was down for like 8 hours Thought it was kind of cool they did an LLC with the board, you dont see that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Oh if I could give this post Epic Win status I would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 im not completely sure on specifics but it seems like it would. at our point in the track what we probably wont most is for it to be as transitory as possible. once it goes that way i dont think it's coming back even if it managed to get itself over a good stretch of water. plus, more simply, the further west it is in nc the closer it will be to us when it passes. back as far west as you are im not sure i'd hold out lots of hope for super big rain, but i dont see why you cant get some. Agree completely. I have no illusions at this point. Was hoping for 1 inch. Never know, that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 that jet is showing up further south at 36 hrs on this run http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_200_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's odd seeing Mitch be negative for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene LOOKS NW at 00z NAM at 36 on h5 when you comapre it to the 18z 42 h5 map... but I dunno if thats because it sped up or not... we shall see what the later frames reveal Weird. If you look at the 500 maps, it looks like that trough over the lakes "snapped" it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's odd seeing Mitch be negative for a storm. He's been all over the 10/11 winter trend since late 09/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's odd seeing Mitch be negative for a storm. actually, I'm not certain yet if its negative or not if the trough drops south further west, that will still result in a big event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah... NAM is going to be a big no unless you are in extreme S MD or on the Delmarva Peninsula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah... NAM is going to be a big no unless you are in extreme S MD or on the Delmarva Peninsula I won't shed a tear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cajuncook Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Really? Precip shield is ever so slightly weaker, but it just seems 10-12 hours faster in frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah... NAM is going to be a big no unless you are in extreme S MD or on the Delmarva Peninsula um okay......strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah... NAM is going to be a big no unless you are in extreme S MD or on the Delmarva Peninsula Definite Storm Cancel. Return your prep supplies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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