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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Yeah because Ian blew the server up.

i dunno much right now.. i guess the "east shift" should be a blow but it seems within the realm of expected wobbles in guidance. euro has 4"+ almost to the blue ridge and has last 3 runs... last night was wetter further west. if i had to guess, 0z gfs will allay some fears.

looking at this thing.. it's going to have no trouble wanting to transition if/once it feels some land. the western half of it already looks primed based on the microwave imagery. if it hits nc more than a brush i think we might be fine for decent to big rain back to dc at least.

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i dunno much right now.. i guess the "east shift" should be a blow but it seems within the realm of expected wobbles in guidance. euro has 4"+ almost to the blue ridge and has last 3 runs... last night was wetter further west. if i had to guess, 0z gfs will allay some fears.

looking at this thing.. it's going to have no trouble wanting to transition if/once it feels some land. the western half of it already looks primed based on the microwave imagery. if it hits nc more than a brush i think we might be fine for decent to big rain back to dc at least.

Ian, along those lines, if it were to stay over NC for a time and weaken, would that allow the precip shield to spread out and help lessen that sharp cutoff to the west?

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Ian, along those lines, if it were to stay over NC for a time and weaken, would that allow the precip shield to spread out and help lessen that sharp cutoff to the west?

im not completely sure on specifics but it seems like it would. at our point in the track what we probably wont most is for it to be as transitory as possible. once it goes that way i dont think it's coming back even if it managed to get itself over a good stretch of water. plus, more simply, the further west it is in nc the closer it will be to us when it passes. back as far west as you are im not sure i'd hold out lots of hope for super big rain, but i dont see why you cant get some.

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I am on travel in Portsmouth, NH and have not had a chance to monitor this storm much and I need quick info: did the storm track jog back east on the models since this afternoon? Not sure if I should fly back to DC tomorrow to get back to the family or stay up here until Sunday.

Meh...if you try to fly home from NH on Sunday, I'm not sure you'll be flying.

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I haven't followed this closely other than local qpf, etc., but it sure looks to me that there is a trough to the east of Irene that's starting to effect Irene's outflow and otherwise encroach to a point of disturbing it

http://wxweb.meteost...tellite/AON/WV/

anyone know if that trough to the east of Irene was on the models all along?

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im not completely sure on specifics but it seems like it would. at our point in the track what we probably wont most is for it to be as transitory as possible. once it goes that way i dont think it's coming back even if it managed to get itself over a good stretch of water. plus, more simply, the further west it is in nc the closer it will be to us when it passes. back as far west as you are im not sure i'd hold out lots of hope for super big rain, but i dont see why you cant get some.

Agree completely. I have no illusions at this point. Was hoping for 1 inch. Never know, that could happen.

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Irene LOOKS NW at 00z NAM at 36 on h5 when you comapre it to the 18z 42 h5 map... but I dunno if thats because it sped up or not... we shall see what the later frames reveal

Weird. If you look at the 500 maps, it looks like that trough over the lakes "snapped" it up.

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