Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think the CWG forecast is low but it makes sense to be cautious. If it trends east at all it's in the park if not high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What is up with CapitalWeather? They are only calling for 0.5-2inches of rain with this. That's basically nothing to be concerned about. Normally they are spot on, but surely they are well off the rainfall total here? I don't know much, so can someone clarify if the call for only 2inches of rain at most for DC makes any sense? http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak I think their forecast makes perfect sense. I wouldn't want to make the call for 4-6 inches of rain for DC right now being right on the cutoff. Wait til tomorrow and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think the CWG forecast is low but it makes sense to be cautious. If it trends east at all it's in the park if not high. Weird because some of the CWG twitter feeds are calling for much higher totals in the metro area. Didn't they call for a "Couple" of inches, which to me is 3ish, not .5 ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I really doubt that's the case... Isabel was close to as good a track as you can get to have hurricane-forced winds into the bay...didn't manage it. 1933 didn't manage it. Connie didn't do it either. Hazel did, but that was as an extratropical storm already. For storms that go east of us, look to Floyd for a comparison... Irene is forecasted to hit NC at a similar strength and size, albeit traveling over less land. Floyd was terrible on the east coast from rain, but I think people hoping for/expecting a much windier outcome than what Floyd gave to the east coast are going to disappointed/surprised. I was rooting for a stronger Isabel. Luckily, RIC only got what it did as it was bad enough. Once the storm is over, it sucks coping with the aftermath and dealing with closed businesses, downed trees, no place open or with power to get gas, batteries or water or food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'll be pissed if we only get 1-2" of rain out of this. After seeing some of these latest runs, I want 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I really doubt that's the case... Isabel was close to as good a track as you can get to have hurricane-forced winds into the bay...didn't manage it. 1933 didn't manage it. Connie didn't do it either. Hazel did, but that was as an extratropical storm already. For storms that go east of us, look to Floyd for a comparison... Irene is forecasted to hit NC at a similar strength and size, albeit traveling over less land. Floyd was terrible on the east coast from rain, but I think people hoping for/expecting a much windier outcome than what Floyd gave to the east coast are going to disappointed/surprised. Yea, I re-thought a bit after my post and agree. However, the center of Isabel was never closer than about 90 miles from the bay. It passed to the W so that makes a big difference. However, IF the center of Irene moves up the delmarva and not off the coast then the bay could easily see hurricane for gusts. Probably not going to happen that way but regardless the bay is in for some damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'll be pissed if we only get 1-2" of rain out of this. After seeing some of these latest runs, I want 4-6". Me too but we are only a small shift away from breezy and showery so I'll take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z GFDL = win 18z HWRF = whole lotta nothin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z GFDL = win 18z HWRF = whole lotta nothin 18z GFDL looks like what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Isabel in 2003 pushed at least 6 feet of water up the Potomac - I saw the watermarks on the sides of houses there during an epic jebwalk after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z GFDL = win 18z HWRF = whole lotta nothin Which is more reliable? If any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z GFDL looks like what? GFDL hits near Morehead city then up to over eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Which is more reliable? If any. GFDL>HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFDL>HWRF Thanks very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I would think that with Irene now making her more northerly turn (compared to the prior WNW), the current cold front clearing our area, and all of the players now on the field, the upcoming 00Z model runs may start the final track trend. Will it be east or west? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Weird because some of the CWG twitter feeds are calling for much higher totals in the metro area. Didn't they call for a "Couple" of inches, which to me is 3ish, not .5 ish. The forecast makes sense and is scaled right. I don't personally know where the gradient will set up nor did I know of the forecast till seeing it. I might have gone higher myself (though would rather not give totals at this range personally!)... tho if 18z is any indication maybe it was wise to be conservative. I do generally agree that the idea of Floyd is a good one--last night I was not arguing it wasn't just that the models were not showing a Floyd. I think it's arguable they still aren't though if it comes into NC the northeast will not get destroyed by wind and surge, that's pretty sure. Shifts of 20 miles are quite important. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/43/Floyd1999_accumulations_bilingual.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFDL>HWRF they're both somewhere near the bottom of the barrel in most instances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I would think that with Irene now making her more northerly turn (compared to the prior WNW), the current cold front clearing our area, and all of the players now on the field, the upcoming 00Z model runs may start the final track trend. Will it be east or west? MDstorm Did the cold front actually clear? I figured it just kind of died out as it bumped into the influence of Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 All but 3 go over OC it looks like... a slight shift east<br><br> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It will be the entire bay and worst on the western shore given the forecast track. Winds are going to howl from the SE - NE during the peak. It's going to stack up a lot of water on the western side. Isabel had sustained 50-55kt winds. If the current forecast track is right, the bay can easily have hurricane force winds this time. Insurance companies are in for a massive bill. I'm not sure the Bay ever gets SE winds. They should be E, shifting to NE, then N, and finally NW. Given that, it strikes me that places like Norfolk would seem poised to see the greatest surge in light of the prolonged N fetch. I wouldn't think the western shore would see anything like Isabel. Nor would I expect there to be much surge in the northern reaches of the bay. It's the storms that go just west of they bay that can really pile the surge up in the bay and its tributaries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Did the cold front actually clear? I figured it just kind of died out as it bumped into the influence of Irene. The front is still to the north. It should wash out over the area tho MOS gives us like 6-12 hrs of north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This hurricane reminds me of last winter............more of the same crap with being on the western fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 This hurricane reminds me of last winter............more of the same crap with being on the western fringe. The winter analogs are silly as there is not much comparison. This is pretty typical (on the high side of potential) for a tropical system off the East Coast. I'd watch to see what if anything remains of the front as it washes out. Whatever is left of it seems to want to be the place where the transitional frontal zone to the northwest of the low wants to get going. I would argue on something like the NAM that the shield should actually come back further northwest initially (more like the euro) given the 700mb look than it does. I could see higher totals in the larger area than Floyd if the slow movement is real. We'll see if that continues I guess, but for now... Want to say D.C. will be able to pile up a solid amount but in 3 hours I could look foolish I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 .04" inches today, and it looks like about the same this weekend. The drought lives on, and is now more powerful than ever. Next. Good luck to those of you to the east, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 .04" inches today, and it looks like about the same this weekend. The drought lives on, and is now more powerful than ever. Next. Good luck to those of you to the east, however. Umm... Dunno which model you're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Umm... Dunno which model you're looking at. psst. Look at his location... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This thing looking more impressive on satellite, eye starting to redevelop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So, does anyone here want to talk about the forecast? Pretty silent here for the last couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Umm... Dunno which model you're looking at. Cut him some slack. He's drawn the short straw for quite a while on rains. He lives about 10 miles from me, and while I'm sitting here with green grass and moist soil, he's sitting down there in an absolute desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Cut him some slack. He's drawn the short straw for quite a while on rains. He lives about 10 miles from me, and while I'm sitting here with green grass and moist soil, he's sitting down there in an absolute desert. Appreciate the support How much rain did you get up your way today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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