Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z GFDL = win 18z HWRF = whole lotta nothin 18z GFDL looks like what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Isabel in 2003 pushed at least 6 feet of water up the Potomac - I saw the watermarks on the sides of houses there during an epic jebwalk after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z GFDL = win 18z HWRF = whole lotta nothin Which is more reliable? If any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z GFDL looks like what? GFDL hits near Morehead city then up to over eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Which is more reliable? If any. GFDL>HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFDL>HWRF Thanks very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I would think that with Irene now making her more northerly turn (compared to the prior WNW), the current cold front clearing our area, and all of the players now on the field, the upcoming 00Z model runs may start the final track trend. Will it be east or west? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Weird because some of the CWG twitter feeds are calling for much higher totals in the metro area. Didn't they call for a "Couple" of inches, which to me is 3ish, not .5 ish. The forecast makes sense and is scaled right. I don't personally know where the gradient will set up nor did I know of the forecast till seeing it. I might have gone higher myself (though would rather not give totals at this range personally!)... tho if 18z is any indication maybe it was wise to be conservative. I do generally agree that the idea of Floyd is a good one--last night I was not arguing it wasn't just that the models were not showing a Floyd. I think it's arguable they still aren't though if it comes into NC the northeast will not get destroyed by wind and surge, that's pretty sure. Shifts of 20 miles are quite important. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/43/Floyd1999_accumulations_bilingual.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 GFDL>HWRF they're both somewhere near the bottom of the barrel in most instances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I would think that with Irene now making her more northerly turn (compared to the prior WNW), the current cold front clearing our area, and all of the players now on the field, the upcoming 00Z model runs may start the final track trend. Will it be east or west? MDstorm Did the cold front actually clear? I figured it just kind of died out as it bumped into the influence of Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 All but 3 go over OC it looks like... a slight shift east<br><br> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It will be the entire bay and worst on the western shore given the forecast track. Winds are going to howl from the SE - NE during the peak. It's going to stack up a lot of water on the western side. Isabel had sustained 50-55kt winds. If the current forecast track is right, the bay can easily have hurricane force winds this time. Insurance companies are in for a massive bill. I'm not sure the Bay ever gets SE winds. They should be E, shifting to NE, then N, and finally NW. Given that, it strikes me that places like Norfolk would seem poised to see the greatest surge in light of the prolonged N fetch. I wouldn't think the western shore would see anything like Isabel. Nor would I expect there to be much surge in the northern reaches of the bay. It's the storms that go just west of they bay that can really pile the surge up in the bay and its tributaries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Did the cold front actually clear? I figured it just kind of died out as it bumped into the influence of Irene. The front is still to the north. It should wash out over the area tho MOS gives us like 6-12 hrs of north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This hurricane reminds me of last winter............more of the same crap with being on the western fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 This hurricane reminds me of last winter............more of the same crap with being on the western fringe. The winter analogs are silly as there is not much comparison. This is pretty typical (on the high side of potential) for a tropical system off the East Coast. I'd watch to see what if anything remains of the front as it washes out. Whatever is left of it seems to want to be the place where the transitional frontal zone to the northwest of the low wants to get going. I would argue on something like the NAM that the shield should actually come back further northwest initially (more like the euro) given the 700mb look than it does. I could see higher totals in the larger area than Floyd if the slow movement is real. We'll see if that continues I guess, but for now... Want to say D.C. will be able to pile up a solid amount but in 3 hours I could look foolish I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 .04" inches today, and it looks like about the same this weekend. The drought lives on, and is now more powerful than ever. Next. Good luck to those of you to the east, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 .04" inches today, and it looks like about the same this weekend. The drought lives on, and is now more powerful than ever. Next. Good luck to those of you to the east, however. Umm... Dunno which model you're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Umm... Dunno which model you're looking at. psst. Look at his location... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This thing looking more impressive on satellite, eye starting to redevelop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So, does anyone here want to talk about the forecast? Pretty silent here for the last couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Umm... Dunno which model you're looking at. Cut him some slack. He's drawn the short straw for quite a while on rains. He lives about 10 miles from me, and while I'm sitting here with green grass and moist soil, he's sitting down there in an absolute desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Cut him some slack. He's drawn the short straw for quite a while on rains. He lives about 10 miles from me, and while I'm sitting here with green grass and moist soil, he's sitting down there in an absolute desert. Appreciate the support How much rain did you get up your way today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 So, does anyone here want to talk about the forecast? Pretty silent here for the last couple hours. the board was down for like 8 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 the board was down for like 8 hours Yeah because Ian blew the server up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 the board was down for like 8 hours my apologies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah because Ian blew the server up. i dunno much right now.. i guess the "east shift" should be a blow but it seems within the realm of expected wobbles in guidance. euro has 4"+ almost to the blue ridge and has last 3 runs... last night was wetter further west. if i had to guess, 0z gfs will allay some fears. looking at this thing.. it's going to have no trouble wanting to transition if/once it feels some land. the western half of it already looks primed based on the microwave imagery. if it hits nc more than a brush i think we might be fine for decent to big rain back to dc at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Appreciate the support How much rain did you get up your way today? Don't know, I was at work. The driveway was still wet at 5 though. I'm hoping we can get the best of both worlds this weekend, rain with no wind or flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i dunno much right now.. i guess the "east shift" should be a blow but it seems within the realm of expected wobbles in guidance. euro has 4"+ almost to the blue ridge and has last 3 runs... last night was wetter further west. if i had to guess, 0z gfs will allay some fears. looking at this thing.. it's going to have no trouble wanting to transition if/once it feels some land. the western half of it already looks primed based on the microwave imagery. if it hits nc more than a brush i think we might be fine for decent to big rain back to dc at least. Ian, along those lines, if it were to stay over NC for a time and weaken, would that allow the precip shield to spread out and help lessen that sharp cutoff to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Somebody on my news feed just said "tornado irene" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Dry air working its way into the NW quadrant of the storm. Not sure how much impact that will have, but worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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