yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 An idiot watch issued for your place probably. I wasnt being an idiot to you... I was laughing cause its already been posted/asked on FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Actually, I thought the idea that he strap himself to the pier with a helmet cam was a great one. We'd have some incredible footage of both the hurricane and what's left of a human body after twelve hours in hurricane force winds driving sand and salt water through the skin and tissues. Woulda been awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teej Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm supposed to go to my parents in Annapolis for crabs on Saturday. Maybe I should stay the night and chicken-neck off the roof on Sunday morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow take a look at the early 18z guidance Yoda posted in the main thread. Looks like a go for a serious storm here Saturday Night. I'm almost all the way on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 double banning ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow take a look at the early 18z guidance Yoda posted in the main thread. Looks like a go for a serious storm here Saturday Night. I'm almost all the way on board. Can you (or someone else) explain what those models are? Are they just the earliest 18z guidance to come out before the main models are out? Is it reliable? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A 3-5ft storm surge up the bay is pretty serious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 double banning ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 get rid of the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ummm...18z early cycle models are west............ The NAM so far is a good 40 miles west, not that it is a model of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 get rid of the thread? sure... but not sure why people are getting wrapped up in some anon n00by kid being a prick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A 3-5ft storm surge up the bay is pretty serious... Sure as heck is. It can be higher up the rivers like the west, south, and severn. Just a windy E and NE day puts their tides up to a foot above normal. Problem with the bay is all the docks are old school unlike the floating piers down in Florida. This is looking to be a couple notches worse than Isabel and that did some serious damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Space station flying over Irene righ now http://www.ustream.tv/nasahdtv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 How far up the bay do you figure that surge will head? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 How far up the bay do you figure that surge will head? Probably stop at Redeye's for the bikini contest on sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Probably stop at Redeye's for the bikini contest on sunday... I was there a month ago. AWESOME bar!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How far up the bay do you figure that surge will head? It will be the entire bay and worst on the western shore given the forecast track. Winds are going to howl from the SE - NE during the peak. It's going to stack up a lot of water on the western side. Isabel had sustained 50-55kt winds. If the current forecast track is right, the bay can easily have hurricane force winds this time. Insurance companies are in for a massive bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Any thoughts on Cap weather preliminary forecast? Noticed in comments people are breathing sigh of relief, expecting it to be worst. Tough call though. Saturday-night Sunday could either be very nasty in DC, or, like a lot of hyped-up tropical system, breezy with a few showers. My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What is up with CapitalWeather? They are only calling for 0.5-2inches of rain with this. That's basically nothing to be concerned about. Normally they are spot on, but surely they are well off the rainfall total here? I don't know much, so can someone clarify if the call for only 2inches of rain at most for DC makes any sense? http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-irene-to-sock-beaches-sweep-dc-metro-region/2011/08/25/gIQA4n3BeJ_blog.html#pagebreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Back in business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What is up with CapitalWeather? They are only calling for 0.5-2inches of rain with this. That's basically nothing to be concerned about. Normally they are spot on, but surely they are well off the rainfall total here? I don't know much, so can someone clarify if the call for only 2inches of rain at most for DC makes any sense? http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-irene-to-sock-beaches-sweep-dc-metro-region/2011/08/25/gIQA4n3BeJ_blog.html#pagebreak The cutoff could be fairly sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z NAM, 18z GFS both further East & Much less with the Rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think the CWG forecast is low but it makes sense to be cautious. If it trends east at all it's in the park if not high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What is up with CapitalWeather? They are only calling for 0.5-2inches of rain with this. That's basically nothing to be concerned about. Normally they are spot on, but surely they are well off the rainfall total here? I don't know much, so can someone clarify if the call for only 2inches of rain at most for DC makes any sense? http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak I think their forecast makes perfect sense. I wouldn't want to make the call for 4-6 inches of rain for DC right now being right on the cutoff. Wait til tomorrow and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think the CWG forecast is low but it makes sense to be cautious. If it trends east at all it's in the park if not high. Weird because some of the CWG twitter feeds are calling for much higher totals in the metro area. Didn't they call for a "Couple" of inches, which to me is 3ish, not .5 ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I really doubt that's the case... Isabel was close to as good a track as you can get to have hurricane-forced winds into the bay...didn't manage it. 1933 didn't manage it. Connie didn't do it either. Hazel did, but that was as an extratropical storm already. For storms that go east of us, look to Floyd for a comparison... Irene is forecasted to hit NC at a similar strength and size, albeit traveling over less land. Floyd was terrible on the east coast from rain, but I think people hoping for/expecting a much windier outcome than what Floyd gave to the east coast are going to disappointed/surprised. I was rooting for a stronger Isabel. Luckily, RIC only got what it did as it was bad enough. Once the storm is over, it sucks coping with the aftermath and dealing with closed businesses, downed trees, no place open or with power to get gas, batteries or water or food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'll be pissed if we only get 1-2" of rain out of this. After seeing some of these latest runs, I want 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I really doubt that's the case... Isabel was close to as good a track as you can get to have hurricane-forced winds into the bay...didn't manage it. 1933 didn't manage it. Connie didn't do it either. Hazel did, but that was as an extratropical storm already. For storms that go east of us, look to Floyd for a comparison... Irene is forecasted to hit NC at a similar strength and size, albeit traveling over less land. Floyd was terrible on the east coast from rain, but I think people hoping for/expecting a much windier outcome than what Floyd gave to the east coast are going to disappointed/surprised. Yea, I re-thought a bit after my post and agree. However, the center of Isabel was never closer than about 90 miles from the bay. It passed to the W so that makes a big difference. However, IF the center of Irene moves up the delmarva and not off the coast then the bay could easily see hurricane for gusts. Probably not going to happen that way but regardless the bay is in for some damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I'll be pissed if we only get 1-2" of rain out of this. After seeing some of these latest runs, I want 4-6". Me too but we are only a small shift away from breezy and showery so I'll take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 18z GFDL = win 18z HWRF = whole lotta nothin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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