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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Actually, I thought the idea that he strap himself to the pier with a helmet cam was a great one. We'd have some incredible footage of both the hurricane and what's left of a human body after twelve hours in hurricane force winds driving sand and salt water through the skin and tissues. Woulda been awesome.

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Wow take a look at the early 18z guidance Yoda posted in the main thread. Looks like a go for a serious storm here Saturday Night. I'm almost all the way on board.

Can you (or someone else) explain what those models are? Are they just the earliest 18z guidance to come out before the main models are out? Is it reliable?

Thanks.

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A 3-5ft storm surge up the bay is pretty serious...

Sure as heck is. It can be higher up the rivers like the west, south, and severn. Just a windy E and NE day puts their tides up to a foot above normal.

Problem with the bay is all the docks are old school unlike the floating piers down in Florida. This is looking to be a couple notches worse than Isabel and that did some serious damage.

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How far up the bay do you figure that surge will head?

It will be the entire bay and worst on the western shore given the forecast track. Winds are going to howl from the SE - NE during the peak. It's going to stack up a lot of water on the western side.

Isabel had sustained 50-55kt winds. If the current forecast track is right, the bay can easily have hurricane force winds this time. Insurance companies are in for a massive bill.

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Any thoughts on Cap weather preliminary forecast? Noticed in comments people are breathing sigh of relief, expecting it to be worst. Tough call though. Saturday-night Sunday could either be very nasty in DC, or, like a lot of hyped-up tropical system, breezy with a few showers.

My link

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What is up with CapitalWeather? They are only calling for 0.5-2inches of rain with this. That's basically nothing to be concerned about. Normally they are spot on, but surely they are well off the rainfall total here? I don't know much, so can someone clarify if the call for only 2inches of rain at most for DC makes any sense?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-irene-to-sock-beaches-sweep-dc-metro-region/2011/08/25/gIQA4n3BeJ_blog.html#pagebreak

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What is up with CapitalWeather? They are only calling for 0.5-2inches of rain with this. That's basically nothing to be concerned about. Normally they are spot on, but surely they are well off the rainfall total here? I don't know much, so can someone clarify if the call for only 2inches of rain at most for DC makes any sense?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-irene-to-sock-beaches-sweep-dc-metro-region/2011/08/25/gIQA4n3BeJ_blog.html#pagebreak

The cutoff could be fairly sharp.

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