CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If the low is to your east, I wouldn't expect too much wind at all, but the rain potential would be huge. Obviously it depends where and how strong it is at landfall, but I'd say the risk is def more to the rain side imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I can't imagine if these solutions verified exactly that we would escape with just a slight breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I can't imagine if these solutions verified exactly that we would escape with just a slight breeze. Well like I said, it depends where and how strong. If the euro verified, yeah there would be some winds, but winds along the west side of a northward moving system aren't known for overachieving. Probably still a nor'easter kind of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Depends on if you want gusty winds/tornadoes or heavy rain. It's hard for remnants to give us both. Isabel was not a big rain producer for us, but it was for areas to the west of the center. Fran also was spotty in rain coverage east of the center (big difference between DCA and IAD) and will be remembered here for the winds and storm surge. But, too far west of us like in Opal, Frances, and Katrina and we 'just' end up seeing a few spin-ups, gusty winds, and not much rain. Ivan's big tornado outbreak happened while the center was to our SW. Jeanne, Hannah, Floyd, and Bertha were mostly remembered for the rain as they tracked east of us. Charley was too small to get us with much rain even though it was fairly close to the east. David was a good combo of both. I was not really choosing in betwen rain/svr etc. Even though it's not a hard re curve scenario in my experience a modeled solution for a tropical system is more likely to end up east at verification than west this far north. So, at this range I'd like to have more breathing room. I guess it's unlikely to go way east but it could still go east enough for us not to get much from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Irene is offering a pretty interesting and rare scenario, the effects inland would probably be similar to Hurricane Isabel. I'm just worried that people will think this is another Hurricane Earl. Also, it's about time a decent Hurricane struck the SE. I'm thinking Irene might be a Category 3 when it makes landfall in SE, Isabel was a category 2 hurricane when it made landfall and weakened significantly as it moved North. Probably hugoish but further up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Irene is offering a pretty interesting and rare scenario, the effects inland would probably be similar to Hurricane Isabel. I'm just worried that people will think this is another Hurricane Earl. Also, it's about time a decent Hurricane struck the SE. I'm thinking Irene might be a Category 3 when it makes landfall in SE, Isabel was a category 2 hurricane when it made landfall and weakened significantly as it moved North. Probably hugoish but further up the coast. I'm worried people read too much into day 7+ models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Irene is offering a pretty interesting and rare scenario, the effects inland would probably be similar to Hurricane Isabel. I'm just worried that people will think this is another Hurricane Earl. Also, it's about time a decent Hurricane struck the SE. I'm thinking Irene might be a Category 3 when it makes landfall in SE, Isabel was a category 2 hurricane when it made landfall and weakened significantly as it moved North. Probably hugoish but further up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'm worried people read too much into day 7+ models. 7 days is a long time for the media hype machine to get cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 7 days is a long time for the media hype machine to get cranking. CWG got started last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 CWG got started last night those gfdl/hwrf panels were fun. i dont think it was hype but sharing "worst case" info without qualifiers is pretty standard these days. people want things retweeted/reshared etc. the weather community seriously need to examine how things are going. it's becoming a joke. im considering making a comparison between foreign policy scenarios and weather scenarios, i.e., how they'd be handled by many media mets... "Iran is developing uranium" becomes "Tomorrow Iran nukes the whole east coast!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 What would be the bigger issue to hype over, landfall location or storm strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 What would be the bigger issue to hype over, landfall location or storm strength? It's worth letting people know the scenarios IMO. So, things we see as hype might not actually be hype in all instances. That said, most facebook/twitter/etc followers are not well versed in which models score higher than others and such. The ease of sharing info is great as a whole... it is revolutionizing the biz in ways that are ultimately good. But, presenting a worst case scenario with no qualifiers is a traffic pull before all else in my opinion. Media has always been sensational.. for obvious reasons. Just need to be careful since it's so much easier now and it's clearly a way to get eyes on something, and in many ways that's more important on the web than in print. I think the fact that the Euro/GFS have been so adamant about a big system is something. The HWRF/GFDL have horrible track records with weak systems though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It's worth letting people know the scenarios IMO. So, things we see as hype might not actually be hype in all instances. That said, most facebook/twitter/etc followers are not well versed in which models score higher than others and such. The ease of sharing info is great as a whole... it is revolutionizing the biz in ways that are ultimately good. But, presenting a worst case scenario with no qualifiers is a traffic pull before all else in my opinion. Media has always been sensational.. for obvious reasons. Just need to be careful since it's so much easier now and it's clearly a way to get eyes on something, and in many ways that's more important on the web than in print. I think the fact that the Euro/GFS have been so adamant about a big system is something. The HWRF/GFDL have horrible track records with weak systems though. Talking all scenarios is good but is there a problem of where only the worst one is talked about more than the likely one in todays media world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Talking all scenarios is good but is there a problem of where only the worst one is talked about more than the likely one in todays media world? I'm not sure. I'm probably too "anti hype" (sometimes to a fault) to accurately assess. While a storm is in the phase Irene has been in and still is, I tend to think a lot of the commentary has gone too far on the upper end from many sources. Then again, if a Cat 3 hits SC those same sources would tend to feel vindicated in some way I'm sure. CWG does not hype on the blog as far as I'm concerned. The discussion is always very measured, especially with the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'm not sure. I'm probably too "anti hype" (sometimes to a fault) to accurately assess. While a storm is in the phase Irene has been in and still is, I tend to think a lot of the commentary has gone too far on the upper end from many sources. Then again, if a Cat 3 hits SC those same sources would tend to feel vindicated in some way I'm sure. CWG does not hype on the blog as far as I'm concerned. The discussion is always very measured, especially with the tropics. I think the media is going to explode with this storm, if this moves into SC. It will only add to the "everything is wild this year" theme that is going on. It kills me sometimes. An EF5 going through some farm field in Kansas isn't wild, but one cutting through a city is, for some reason. A shoddy stage collapsing is also "wild" now. Wait until this storm hits CHS. The media will be out of control. They already are with the spin on wild weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Model error? Or did Irene send out a large slug of rain way N/NE of itself? http://raleighwx.ame...6_county144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 We may die next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06174.gif This looks awfully familiar (hint: winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06174.gif This looks awfully familiar (hint: winter) precisely why i've been harping that we want this to our west at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 shoot given how much everyone's "calls" shifted east today this could be a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wouldn't it be hilarious if it did fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wouldn't it be hilarious if it did fish Seems kind of unlikely. Heck might get another west shift. The NHC forecasts like they do for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 I think the media is going to explode with this storm, if this moves into SC. It will only add to the "everything is wild this year" theme that is going on. It kills me sometimes. An EF5 going through some farm field in Kansas isn't wild, but one cutting through a city is, for some reason. A shoddy stage collapsing is also "wild" now. Wait until this storm hits CHS. The media will be out of control. They already are with the spin on wild weather. For sure. I may have to check out at some point during the week. I'm mostly looking forward to the next multi-year stretch of boring weather--tho these days I guess we can always find something. Hopefully at least we'll have heat to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 People say 'cant believe we would only get a breeze in that scenario'. Ive had tropical storms go over the cape when i lived in boston and only gotten gusts into the 30's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 People say 'cant believe we would only get a breeze in that scenario'. Ive had tropical storms go over the cape when i lived in boston and only gotten gusts into the 30's.. often winds on the west side of a storm going north/northeast up the coast arent that bad unless there's also a big high around somewhere too etc. if i want lots of rain i probably want it overhead or just to the east but for more "fun" effects I'd probably take one going to the west even if it means needing to get lucky on that fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Its position off the SC/GA coast on Friday night is about as identical as you can get on the last two GFS runs. It seems the differences for us would be in what happens once it reaches a higher latitude. There's an obvious difference at the upper levels by 24 hours later (Sat night) in that the 12z run left the door open to come on north, and the 18z slammed the door, slowed it down in its north movement, and then starts it NE. Seems to me that's a long way out to accurately predict those upper levels with that kind of precision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 For sure. I may have to check out at some point during the week. I'm mostly looking forward to the next multi-year stretch of boring weather--tho these days I guess we can always find something. Hopefully at least we'll have heat to talk about. But at least you are in the media and bring the unique perspective as someone who knows how weather works. In this day and age of everything bolt of lightning getting recorded with smart phones..it's easy to buy into the wild weather theme from the media. Hell this stuff has been going on for years, but years ago, it was either missed or documented by someone who sent a letter in old english via pony express. More spotters and better technology = more reports. BTW, when I was down in DC after BWI..I had my wife's cousins ask me if I heard of the CWG. I replied, "yeah those guys are ok I guess." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 But at least you are in the media and bring the unique perspective as someone who knows how weather works. In this day and age of everything bolt of lightning getting recorded with smart phones..it's easy to buy into the wild weather theme from the media. Hell this stuff has been going on for years, but years ago, it was either missed or documented by someone who sent a letter in old english via pony express. More spotters and better technology = more reports. BTW, when I was down in DC after BWI..I had my wife's cousins ask me if I heard of the CWG. I replied, "yeah those guys are ok I guess." I don't usually consider myself part of that larger apparatus but I suppose so in ways. Definitely on the documentation angle. I think that's a major part of it... not sure a tornado happens anywhere these days without someone seeing it and youtubing it. I definitely am skeptical of this new era of severe weather. I think it's just as likely we run into benign periods etc. On a side note: didnt many of the early runs with this thing slam the se coast? interesting we seem to be heading back there pretty heavily now.. sometimes you get the picture at d12 it seems then lose it only for it to come back again in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 We may die next weekend You heard it here first.. DC Death toll from Deathacane Irene: 137,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I don't usually consider myself part of that larger apparatus but I suppose so in ways. Definitely on the documentation angle. I think that's a major part of it... not sure a tornado happens anywhere these days without someone seeing it and youtubing it. I definitely am skeptical of this new era of severe weather. I think it's just as likely we run into benign periods etc. On a side note: didnt many of the early runs with this thing slam the se coast? interesting we seem to be heading back there pretty heavily now.. sometimes you get the picture at d12 it seems then lose it only for it to come back again in the end. Some of the GFS runs I think hit SC, but I didn't exactly follow each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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