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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Question for the METS:

The track, whether just offshore of VA Beach or over it, seems to result in forecasts of very little rain in the Shenandoah Valley (what a shock). However, if this same track were for a Nor'easter, we'd be in line for some serious snow (assuming it were cold enough). What is the difference in these two cases that results in such a sharp cut-off in the precip sheild on the west side of Irene? The nor'easter coming from that direction would gives us persistent ENE winds supplying abundant moisture, but in Irene's case I see we are forecasted for dry NW winds. Is it the lack of Gulf moisture that a storm coming out of the SE would provide?

Appreciate anyone's explanation. Thanks.

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http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast

Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.

delawarebay_mom2h.png

Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.

ACY_mom2h.png

Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

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Dr. Greg Forbes HEAVY RAIN FROM IRENE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

Many places in east NC, east VA, central and east MD, DE, east PA, NJ, south-

east NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, and west ME are likely to get 6 inches or more

of rain from Irene, with quite a few places getting 12 inches or more with

serious flooding in many places.

a few seconds ago

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OCEAN CITY, Md. (WUSA) - 9NEWS NOW reporter Scott Broom said Ocean City's Mayor Richard Meehan and members of the city council announced a mandatory evacuation of Ocean City beginning at midnight in preparation for Hurricane Irene.

Broom said Meehan asked people to prepare now to pack up and leave.

After midnight the mayor said police will not allow unauthorized people or vehicles to enter the city.

http://www.wusa9.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=164291

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Dr. Greg Forbes HEAVY RAIN FROM IRENE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

Many places in east NC, east VA, central and east MD, DE, east PA, NJ, south-

east NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, and west ME are likely to get 6 inches or more

of rain from Irene, with quite a few places getting 12 inches or more with

serious flooding in many places.

a few seconds ago

That's pretty much the HPC forecast and that of the GFS and Euro. Add to that the already wet soil conditions and we're talkign flooding and power outages.

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Question for the METS:

The track, whether just offshore of VA Beach or over it, seems to result in forecasts of very little rain in the Shenandoah Valley (what a shock). However, if this same track were for a Nor'easter, we'd be in line for some serious snow (assuming it were cold enough). What is the difference in these two cases that results in such a sharp cut-off in the precip sheild on the west side of Irene? The nor'easter coming from that direction would gives us persistent ENE winds supplying abundant moisture, but in Irene's case I see we are forecasted for dry NW winds. Is it the lack of Gulf moisture that a storm coming out of the SE would provide?

Appreciate anyone's explanation. Thanks.

I'm not a met, but I assume it has something to do with:

1. Hurricanes are more tightly bound than Nor'easters, and this one anyone is expected to pass well to the East of DC; and,

2. Winter precip comes about from the collision of warm wet air with colder continental air, whereas Hurricanes don't feature the latter clash, so there's no convergence zone of the type that produces downdraft winter precip along frontal boundaries.

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Generators are already sold out across the area.

Thank goodness for Amazon Prime's $3.99 one-day shipping.

I thought about getting a generator, but it would cost me more to get the generator than to replace the food in my fridge. And since my power rarely goes out, I'm not too pressed. besides, I have a built in fridge. Not trying to move that sucker out just to hook it up to an extension cord. Not worth the hassle.

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Wow, what a lot of rude pricks on here! Are you guys all former bullies in high school or what? Honestly, I was just asking a question, I love violent weather and we don't see this around here very often. Excuse me all to hell...I know most of you here with over 10K posts probably have no job or lives so you sit on a weather forum all day and bully people...

Oh and I'm grown, thank you!

YOU ALL INCLUDING THE ADMIN... you should be ashamed of yourself allowing bullying in here directed at a first time poster. I think it's YOU who should drive off a pier... Does it make you feel better to sleep at night knowing you harass others online to get your kicks? Jesus Christ...

To the few and I mean FEW who replied in a mature way, I appreciate the feedback. It’s a shame you are surrounded on here with bitter people.

Admin, do go ahead and delete my account, I would never post on here again anyways. What a ****ing troll you are!

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