WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wxrisk.com12Z GFS AGAIN WAY WEST AY 54 and 60 hrs LANDFALL WEST OF HATTERAS over Morehed city NC EUROPEAN kicking GFS ass Did NCEP kick him in the nuts when he was a little boy or something? Or is ECMWF paying him as a spokesperson? The GFS is pretty much equivalent nowadays in skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Get floydbuster to go with. He's an expert on chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Rain shield has expanded west which I think happens when the start land interaction is this correct thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Same run as previous before, west in landfall in Morehead, feel like it should go a bit further w with upper level vort and the fact that the GFS lacks the potential "capture" mechanism the ECMWF has, just an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yup...track through our region is basically the same on this run. Biggest difference is the timing and speed of Irene. Most rain is out of here by 18z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Did NCEP kick him in the nuts when he was a little boy or something? Or is ECMWF paying him as a spokesperson? The GFS is pretty much equivalent nowadays in skill. i trolled him but im not sure he'll get it Ian Livingston the gfs is an embarrassment to america .. except that it first showed a storm 2 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yup...looks like eastward shift was only on the earlier panels. Looks right over Norfolk at 66hr. Heavy rain in our entire area. It's wild how it started the run east and then ended up with a more westerly track. Really puts the area under the gun for flooding rains and tropical force winds. Looks sort of like the GFDI run through what I've been able to see of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Man, based on the gfs it sure looks like this storm will go down in the books as one of the costliest. The center moves over a lot of real estate while staying close enough to the ocean to weaken very slowly. My mom lives in Cambridge. I guess I have to invite her over for the weekend...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 i think you should rush right in and strap yourself out on the pier with a helmet cam on so we all have a live feed? whaddya say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It's wild how it started the run east and then ended up with a more westerly track. Really puts the area under the gun for flooding rains and tropical force winds. Looks sort of like the GFDI run through what I've been able to see of it. It was nice knowing you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Rain shield has expanded west which I think happens when the start land interaction is this correct thinking? It happens when the storm starts transitioning and interacting with the extratropics. A front typically forms and you get overrunning on the west side of the front which tends to put the heaviest precipitation on the west side of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It was nice knowing you. I made through 10 inhces of rain during Floyd so I'll be OK. Hopefully, I'll keep my power. I have a generator that I can pull out so I can pull water and run the freezing but it isn't strong enough to give me hot water for a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It's wild how it started the run east and then ended up with a more westerly track. Really puts the area under the gun for flooding rains and tropical force winds. Looks sort of like the GFDI run through what I've been able to see of it. Can i have your boat or u gonna need it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Difference between Euro and GFS Euro goes N after landfall, GFS NNE take your pick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is getting exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hrs 66 and 72 look... fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is getting exciting. not really if you dont want large amounts of damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 To the OP - Also understand that they are already doing emergency phase 1 in Ocean City and come folks are already being moved out (just international workforce students for now it seems). You would be better off sticking to someplace a bit more inland. There's no sense in going out there and getting yourself into a situation. In many areas, first responders will simply stop answering calls for help if they warned people to evacuate before - so be warned. Not the smartest thing at all. Best advice in the thread thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Best advice in the thread thus far. Why thank you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo5252 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Please tell me Calvert County will be OK until after midnight Saturday night. I have my fantasy draft and UFC that night. Sucks because normally I am down for a storm, just not this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm heading to my Mom's in Rehobeth DE-- it's a few miles inland but near an INLET. Should be good fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 not really if you dont want large amounts of damage I think my backyard will be fine.....but yeah it would suck for Delmarva and areas near the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Can i have your boat or u gonna need it? I need my boat, you can use my canoe but I don't think it would handle the 3 kids, wife and your lardy butt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Please tell me Calvert County will be OK until after midnight Saturday night. I have my fantasy draft and UFC that night. Sucks because normally I am down for a storm, just not this one. There will be rain before midnight but the highest winds will probably be after. Still, it won't be a good night to be on the road if the GFS and euro ae right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I need my boat, you can use my canoe but I don't think it would handle the 3 kids, wife and your lardy butt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Can someone please post images of the wx porn from wundermap on here? I can only get 1-2 time steps to load on wunderground (and neither of them is when Irene is around). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Please tell me Calvert County will be OK until after midnight Saturday night. I have my fantasy draft and UFC that night. Sucks because normally I am down for a storm, just not this one. Calvert County looks to be obliterated. I'm talking washed out into the bay. Godspeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Can someone please post images of the wx porn from wundermap on here? I can only get 1-2 time steps to load on wunderground (and neither of them is when Irene is around). Its jumping around But hr 57 is pouring in S MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 S MD becomes flooded MD hrs 63 and 66 DC CRUSHED with rain Winds 25 kts+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Go to Salisbury and find a hotel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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