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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Did NCEP kick him in the nuts when he was a little boy or something? Or is ECMWF paying him as a spokesperson?

The GFS is pretty much equivalent nowadays in skill.

i trolled him but im not sure he'll get it

Ian Livingston the gfs is an embarrassment to america .. except that it first showed a storm 2 weeks ago

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Yup...looks like eastward shift was only on the earlier panels. Looks right over Norfolk at 66hr. Heavy rain in our entire area.

It's wild how it started the run east and then ended up with a more westerly track. Really puts the area under the gun for flooding rains and tropical force winds. Looks sort of like the GFDI run through what I've been able to see of it.

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Man, based on the gfs it sure looks like this storm will go down in the books as one of the costliest. The center moves over a lot of real estate while staying close enough to the ocean to weaken very slowly.

My mom lives in Cambridge. I guess I have to invite her over for the weekend......

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Rain shield has expanded west which I think happens when the start land interaction is this correct thinking?

It happens when the storm starts transitioning and interacting with the extratropics. A front typically forms and you get overrunning on the west side of the front which tends to put the heaviest precipitation on the west side of the track.

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It's wild how it started the run east and then ended up with a more westerly track. Really puts the area under the gun for flooding rains and tropical force winds. Looks sort of like the GFDI run through what I've been able to see of it.

Can i have your boat or u gonna need it? :wub:

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To the OP - Also understand that they are already doing emergency phase 1 in Ocean City and come folks are already being moved out (just international workforce students for now it seems). You would be better off sticking to someplace a bit more inland. There's no sense in going out there and getting yourself into a situation. In many areas, first responders will simply stop answering calls for help if they warned people to evacuate before - so be warned. Not the smartest thing at all.

Best advice in the thread thus far.

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Please tell me Calvert County will be OK until after midnight Saturday night. I have my fantasy draft and UFC that night. Sucks because normally I am down for a storm, just not this one.

There will be rain before midnight but the highest winds will probably be after. Still, it won't be a good night to be on the road if the GFS and euro ae right.

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