Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 In winter we usually get that several run westward shift before the rug is yanked back out. It's not winter, but it is still the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 To the OP - Also understand that they are already doing emergency phase 1 in Ocean City and come folks are already being moved out (just international workforce students for now it seems). You would be better off sticking to someplace a bit more inland. There's no sense in going out there and getting yourself into a situation. In many areas, first responders will simply stop answering calls for help if they warned people to evacuate before - so be warned. Not the smartest thing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just don't close them in a room full of the stuff - CO2 is not a joke Stop giving me ideas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Why so bad Irene why so bad. Structure looks like rubbish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Stop giving me ideas! Police are outside your door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I need this thing to come west so I can drive my mini-van to OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I need this thing to come west so I can drive my mini-van to OC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well - I suppose before I make any more comments I should ask - OP, what is your plan of action. Because if your plan is simply "drive into storm and be done" - you are not setting yourself up well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 the real question is: are your parents cool with you wrecking the family minivan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I need this thing to come west so I can drive my mini-van to OC. Decided to sell the bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 I didn't see this posted, from HPC (tho the GFS might change it) ...MAJOR HURRICANE IRENE TO STRONGLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST FROM NC INTO THE NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND... THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST WESTWARD AS HAS THE LAST SEVERAL NHC TRACK FORECASTS WHICH NOW HAVE EYE OF IRENE COMING THRU THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATE SATURDAY BEFORE GRAZING THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL. REFER TO THE NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF IRENE ALONG WITH LOCAL NWS WARNINGS/STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM NC INTO NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Definitely a little NE but not a huge shift, interested to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm not being mean or anything but to be quite honest - if you have to ask these kinds of questions you might not want to go unless you are a highly experienced chaser. (Like HurricaneJosh). Don't get yourself into a situation like a few of our members who shall go unnamed. Out them! Out them!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Decided to sell the bus? check that OC/Mini-van thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Vort looks to be tugging it NNW soon, faster and not east any more, only was initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I can't really tell with the quick plots but it looks like the hr54 on the12Z GFS is a bit further north and 1mb stronger than the 6z. As far as E/W goes, it doesn't look much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So far 12z GFS looking like 00z GFS on track, but about 6 hrs faster. A bit east of the 6z track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Vort looks to be tugging it NNW soon, faster and not east any more, only was initially. it looked east at the beginning probably from differences early on...but if never loses any longitude up through 48...than between 48 and 54 looks to gain a little bit of a NNW track hour 60...more of a NW trend from 0z....looks more in line with the 0z euro hour 66....close to making landfall near OC, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wxrisk.com12Z GFS AGAIN WAY WEST AY 54 and 60 hrs LANDFALL WEST OF HATTERAS over Morehed city NC EUROPEAN kicking GFS ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like landfall is in the same spot from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yup...looks like eastward shift was only on the earlier panels. Looks right over Norfolk at 66hr. Heavy rain in our entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wxrisk.com12Z GFS AGAIN WAY WEST AY 54 and 60 hrs LANDFALL WEST OF HATTERAS over Morehed city NC EUROPEAN kicking GFS ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wxrisk.com12Z GFS AGAIN WAY WEST AY 54 and 60 hrs LANDFALL WEST OF HATTERAS over Morehed city NC EUROPEAN kicking GFS ass Did NCEP kick him in the nuts when he was a little boy or something? Or is ECMWF paying him as a spokesperson? The GFS is pretty much equivalent nowadays in skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Get floydbuster to go with. He's an expert on chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Rain shield has expanded west which I think happens when the start land interaction is this correct thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Same run as previous before, west in landfall in Morehead, feel like it should go a bit further w with upper level vort and the fact that the GFS lacks the potential "capture" mechanism the ECMWF has, just an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yup...track through our region is basically the same on this run. Biggest difference is the timing and speed of Irene. Most rain is out of here by 18z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Did NCEP kick him in the nuts when he was a little boy or something? Or is ECMWF paying him as a spokesperson? The GFS is pretty much equivalent nowadays in skill. i trolled him but im not sure he'll get it Ian Livingston the gfs is an embarrassment to america .. except that it first showed a storm 2 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yup...looks like eastward shift was only on the earlier panels. Looks right over Norfolk at 66hr. Heavy rain in our entire area. It's wild how it started the run east and then ended up with a more westerly track. Really puts the area under the gun for flooding rains and tropical force winds. Looks sort of like the GFDI run through what I've been able to see of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Man, based on the gfs it sure looks like this storm will go down in the books as one of the costliest. The center moves over a lot of real estate while staying close enough to the ocean to weaken very slowly. My mom lives in Cambridge. I guess I have to invite her over for the weekend...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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