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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Little tidbit from the 11am NHC discussion.

THIS TROUGH

IS FORECAST TO BYPASS IRENE...LEAVING THE HURRICANE IN DEEP

SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND

A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP

THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE

GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND

THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. THE NEW

FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF

THE TVCA CONSENSUS. SINCE IRENE IS SUCH A LARGE TROPICAL

CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE UNITED STATES

EAST COAST REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES.

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Agree. Amazing the differences in just 50 miles. Radar estimates for last 90 days are 3-4" for SW Frederick County and 15-20" for parts of Baltimore. I'd estimate we are about 5-7" below normal.

I was digging a drainage ditch the last two days and almost needed a pick axe to make a dent in the "soil."

How did you do with this mornings rain? I'm down in Rockville each day, so I can only watch on radar.

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I think regardless of a along the coast track or a GFDL-like track...DC will likely see the same kind of winds...25 to 35 sustained (for a period) gusts to 45 or 50...

I agree. I think TS force sustained winds (for at least a brief period) are likely with any track on or left of the GFS. I think gusts to hurricane force are certainly in the cards near the water (ocean or bay) and points east of Baltimore with a similar track.

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post-1615-0-68089100-1314285926.gif

It has been difficult to determine whether the hurricane has gone

through an eyewall replacement. Although the radius of maximum wind

is larger today than yesterday...microwave and aircraft data have

not been very conclusive. Recent data do not show any evidence of a

secondary eyewall at this time. The eye is a little more evident in

the last few visible satellite images...but is not as clear as it

was yesterday morning. The Air Force aircraft has measured a peak

flight-level wind of 112 kt and SFMR winds of 90 kt...which roughly

support the 100-kt initial intensity.

Center fixes from the aircraft overnight and this morning indicate

that the expected north-northwestward turn has occurred. A

northward turn is expected tonight or early Friday as Irene moves

through a break in the subtropical ridge. A mid/upper-level trough

moving through the Great Lakes region is expected to then turn

Irene toward the north-northeast in a couple of days. This trough

is forecast to bypass Irene...leaving the hurricane in deep

southerly flow between a trough over the central United States and

a building ridge over the Atlantic. This pattern will likely keep

the hurricane very near the East Coast of the United States. The

guidance envelope has shifted a little westward on this cycle...and

the new official track has been nudged west as well. The new

forecast lies between the GFS and ECMWF...and is a little right of

the tvca consensus. Since Irene is such a large tropical

cyclone...significant impacts are likely along the United States

East Coast regardless of the exact track it takes.

The environment remains conducive for some additional strengthening

during the next day or two. The main influencing factor during the

short term will likely be eyewall cycles which are difficult to

predict. After 48 hours...southwesterly shear is forecast to

increase which will likely start weakening process. However...

since Irene has such a large and intense circulation...it

will probably be rather slow to weaken.

Forecast positions and Max winds

init 25/1500z 25.9n 76.8w 100 kt 115 mph

12h 26/0000z 27.5n 77.5w 105 kt 120 mph

24h 26/1200z 29.5n 77.8w 110 kt 125 mph

36h 27/0000z 31.4n 77.5w 105 kt 120 mph

48h 27/1200z 33.3n 77.1w 100 kt 115 mph

72h 28/1200z 37.8n 75.3w 85 kt 100 mph

96h 29/1200z 45.0n 71.5w 55 kt 65 mph...inland

120h 30/1200z 54.0n 64.5w 45 kt 50 mph...Post-trop/extratrop

$$

forecaster Brown

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A good trick and something I'm doing on Saturday is buying 50lbs of dry ice and packing my freezers with it. I did it during a multi day power outage and my big freezer stayed rock solid cold for 4 days. If you pack them before the power goes out then it works even better.

And if the power doesn't go out I'll have a great time filling rooms with clouds and freeking the kids out.

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A good trick and something I'm doing on Saturday is buying 50lbs of dry ice and packing my freezers with it. I did it during a multi day power outage and my big freezer stayed rock solid cold for 4 days. If you pack them before the power goes out then it works even better.

And if the power doesn't go out I'll have a great time filling rooms with clouds and freeking the kids out.

Just don't close them in a room full of the stuff - CO2 is not a joke :P

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Question/advice: I'm a huge weather freak and I want to drive out to Ocean City, MD Saturday evening and experience what this hurricane brings (I'm from DC btw.) Latest reports from Accu Weather & TWC are calling for 95MPH hurricane force wind gusts IN TOWN with the storm to quite possibly go right over the Delmarva! The track is moving farther west now verses farther east. My concern...I drive a minivan and want to know if I will be safe in my car in those kinds of winds or will I flip over? I'm only going up for a night drive/trip, I'm not staying anywhere in town so I will be in my car/van the entire time! Please don't answer unless you have knowledge about this (no insults meant but I'm looking for real answers/opinions instead of calling me names because I want to drive into a storm.) This is a safety concern and I thought it was better to ask before going so I know what/if I'm getting myself into.

Thanks a bunch!

Dayvid

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