SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow that NHC track is something else. Hard to imagine it really happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene looks miles ahead on visible, no deep convection on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 YEAH. IN Leesburg big RAINHOLE this summer. So frustrating. Agree. Amazing the differences in just 50 miles. Radar estimates for last 90 days are 3-4" for SW Frederick County and 15-20" for parts of Baltimore. I'd estimate we are about 5-7" below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Little tidbit from the 11am NHC discussion. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BYPASS IRENE...LEAVING THE HURRICANE IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. THE NEW FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS. SINCE IRENE IS SUCH A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Agree. Amazing the differences in just 50 miles. Radar estimates for last 90 days are 3-4" for SW Frederick County and 15-20" for parts of Baltimore. I'd estimate we are about 5-7" below normal. I was digging a drainage ditch the last two days and almost needed a pick axe to make a dent in the "soil." How did you do with this mornings rain? I'm down in Rockville each day, so I can only watch on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 fyi, im going to start a new thread -- not sure the 1,000 post limit actually matters but we're going to go way over at this pt. will merge them at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think regardless of a along the coast track or a GFDL-like track...DC will likely see the same kind of winds...25 to 35 sustained (for a period) gusts to 45 or 50... I agree. I think TS force sustained winds (for at least a brief period) are likely with any track on or left of the GFS. I think gusts to hurricane force are certainly in the cards near the water (ocean or bay) and points east of Baltimore with a similar track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 It has been difficult to determine whether the hurricane has gone through an eyewall replacement. Although the radius of maximum wind is larger today than yesterday...microwave and aircraft data have not been very conclusive. Recent data do not show any evidence of a secondary eyewall at this time. The eye is a little more evident in the last few visible satellite images...but is not as clear as it was yesterday morning. The Air Force aircraft has measured a peak flight-level wind of 112 kt and SFMR winds of 90 kt...which roughly support the 100-kt initial intensity. Center fixes from the aircraft overnight and this morning indicate that the expected north-northwestward turn has occurred. A northward turn is expected tonight or early Friday as Irene moves through a break in the subtropical ridge. A mid/upper-level trough moving through the Great Lakes region is expected to then turn Irene toward the north-northeast in a couple of days. This trough is forecast to bypass Irene...leaving the hurricane in deep southerly flow between a trough over the central United States and a building ridge over the Atlantic. This pattern will likely keep the hurricane very near the East Coast of the United States. The guidance envelope has shifted a little westward on this cycle...and the new official track has been nudged west as well. The new forecast lies between the GFS and ECMWF...and is a little right of the tvca consensus. Since Irene is such a large tropical cyclone...significant impacts are likely along the United States East Coast regardless of the exact track it takes. The environment remains conducive for some additional strengthening during the next day or two. The main influencing factor during the short term will likely be eyewall cycles which are difficult to predict. After 48 hours...southwesterly shear is forecast to increase which will likely start weakening process. However... since Irene has such a large and intense circulation...it will probably be rather slow to weaken. Forecast positions and Max winds init 25/1500z 25.9n 76.8w 100 kt 115 mph 12h 26/0000z 27.5n 77.5w 105 kt 120 mph 24h 26/1200z 29.5n 77.8w 110 kt 125 mph 36h 27/0000z 31.4n 77.5w 105 kt 120 mph 48h 27/1200z 33.3n 77.1w 100 kt 115 mph 72h 28/1200z 37.8n 75.3w 85 kt 100 mph 96h 29/1200z 45.0n 71.5w 55 kt 65 mph...inland 120h 30/1200z 54.0n 64.5w 45 kt 50 mph...Post-trop/extratrop $$ forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24459-hurricane-irene-ii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Will be interesting to see what 12z GFS does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 i like the subtitle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A good trick and something I'm doing on Saturday is buying 50lbs of dry ice and packing my freezers with it. I did it during a multi day power outage and my big freezer stayed rock solid cold for 4 days. If you pack them before the power goes out then it works even better. And if the power doesn't go out I'll have a great time filling rooms with clouds and freeking the kids out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 No Cat 4 in the new forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is that panic! webpage still around from the snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 No Cat 4 in the new forecast. I thought I read on here somewhere where mets were discussing whether stronger means east or west (or no effect). Would that impact Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A good trick and something I'm doing on Saturday is buying 50lbs of dry ice and packing my freezers with it. I did it during a multi day power outage and my big freezer stayed rock solid cold for 4 days. If you pack them before the power goes out then it works even better. And if the power doesn't go out I'll have a great time filling rooms with clouds and freeking the kids out. Just don't close them in a room full of the stuff - CO2 is not a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is that panic! webpage still around from the snowstorms? http://snowpocalypsedc.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 this thread just dodged a big bullet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just don't close them in a room full of the stuff - CO2 is not a joke it'll just make em breath a little faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 this thread just dodged a big bullet... interesting choice of words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 this thread just dodged a big bullet... explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 interesting choice of words I know. Randy... you need to visit couple subforums... some things need to be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 explain? The guy posting S&M porn in the philly thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 explain? Oh, sorry... nothing Irene related. Spam related to other subforums, we were spared (thank god) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The guy posting S&M porn in the philly thread. Try, NYC, Philly, PA, SNE and Southern threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Try, NYC, Philly, PA, SNE and Southern threads WOW...thought it was just ours....well inst that lovely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 somebody had to ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Oh, sorry... nothing Irene related. Spam related to other subforums, we were spared (thank god) Yikes! Glad we were spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 WOW...thought it was just ours....well inst that lovely... Nope... looks like almost every region got it... except this one. Anyways --- Ian feel free to clean up these last few posts. GFS is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dayvidpriddy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Question/advice: I'm a huge weather freak and I want to drive out to Ocean City, MD Saturday evening and experience what this hurricane brings (I'm from DC btw.) Latest reports from Accu Weather & TWC are calling for 95MPH hurricane force wind gusts IN TOWN with the storm to quite possibly go right over the Delmarva! The track is moving farther west now verses farther east. My concern...I drive a minivan and want to know if I will be safe in my car in those kinds of winds or will I flip over? I'm only going up for a night drive/trip, I'm not staying anywhere in town so I will be in my car/van the entire time! Please don't answer unless you have knowledge about this (no insults meant but I'm looking for real answers/opinions instead of calling me names because I want to drive into a storm.) This is a safety concern and I thought it was better to ask before going so I know what/if I'm getting myself into. Thanks a bunch! Dayvid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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