WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM has definitely moved east. Put the very tight precip gradient back across our area...roughly along the falls-line in MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I know that its the nam at 84 hrs.... but was does the nam show? I look at it for fun too, but for those who don't know, the NAM is a terrible model to use for the tropics (and some would argue a terrible model to use period beyond 48-60 hours ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM has definitely moved east. Put the very tight precip gradient back across our area...roughly along the falls-line in MD. true...a little east from 6z...but not really from 0z....and i'm not getting bent out of shape about qpf fields for a tropical system on the NAM...still is a terrible run for coastal areas and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJField Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We have rented a house first row along the beach road in Kitty Hawk from September 10-15. Interested to see how they make out this weekend. I imagine there may not be as much beach there when we arrive regardless. We have rented a house first row along the beach road in Kitty Hawk patch of water where there used to be a beach. Bring a boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Let's see if anyone jumps out of the ship over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think it was posted earlier, but I've decided to ride the 06Z GFDL until something better comes along http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2011082506-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Let's see if anyone jumps out of the ship over the NAM. Storm Cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 true...a little east from 6z...but not really from 0z....and i'm not getting bent out of shape about qpf fields for a tropical system on the NAM...still is a terrible run for coastal areas and NYC Agree. NAM is not the one we should be giving much weight either. I think it was posted earlier, but I've decided to ride the 06Z GFDL until something better comes along http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation But there wouldn't be any TS force winds when it got here after that far of an overland track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Let's see if anyone jumps out of the ship over the NAM. ... jumping ship over the 84 hr nam for a tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 But there wouldn't be any TS force winds when it got here after that far of an overland track! I just want the rain, wind is gonna be meh anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Agree. NAM is not the one we should be giving much weight either. But there wouldn't be any TS force winds when it got here after that far of an overland track! true! at least it didn't swing 200 miles to the east...haha I think regardless of a along the coast track or a GFDL-like track...DC will likely see the same kind of winds...25 to 35 sustained (for a period) gusts to 45 or 50... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is this looking like we are going to have an Isabel repeat for the Hampton Roads area?...or worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Why on the weekend, though? I could do with a day off of work! Hopefully Pepco remains incompetent and is unable to restore power to the office on Monday (should power be affected)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Let's see if anyone jumps out of the ship over the NAM. We don't even use the NAM much in this range for noreasters. It could be right but as I said last night it's still in spray range. Save time.. Only look at GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The NOAA HFIP is also acceptable http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011082500-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We don't even use the NAM much in this range for noreasters. It could be right but as I said last night it's still in spray range. Save time.. Only look at GFS/Euro. yeah, one of the things I've learned here in the winter is to trust the NAM when its in the "deadly" range of 48 hours or less. also, just learned NAM sucks for tropical storms. Looking forward to the 12z GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 30-40% Now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Kevin, with 130 people read this thread right now, 62 of them guests... I'm not sure you are helping, or hindering things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Kevin, with 130 people read this thread right now, 62 of them guests... I'm not sure you are helping, or hindering things haha, hours between model runs can be pretty dull. Not like these aren't credible models though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Traveling to Philly on Sat morning for wedding. So Sat looks like it will be ok in the am for the road. But will we be able to get back Sun afternoon? THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT SINCE, SINCE, SINCE, GEEZ, LIKE WHO CAN REMEMBER, AND I HAVE TO TRAVEL 95??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I just want the rain, wind is gonna be meh anyways Agree. Amazing the differences in just 50 miles. Radar estimates for last 90 days are 3-4" for SW Frederick County and 15-20" for parts of Baltimore. I'd estimate we are about 5-7" below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow that NHC track is something else. Hard to imagine it really happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene looks miles ahead on visible, no deep convection on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 YEAH. IN Leesburg big RAINHOLE this summer. So frustrating. Agree. Amazing the differences in just 50 miles. Radar estimates for last 90 days are 3-4" for SW Frederick County and 15-20" for parts of Baltimore. I'd estimate we are about 5-7" below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Little tidbit from the 11am NHC discussion. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BYPASS IRENE...LEAVING THE HURRICANE IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. THE NEW FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS. SINCE IRENE IS SUCH A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Agree. Amazing the differences in just 50 miles. Radar estimates for last 90 days are 3-4" for SW Frederick County and 15-20" for parts of Baltimore. I'd estimate we are about 5-7" below normal. I was digging a drainage ditch the last two days and almost needed a pick axe to make a dent in the "soil." How did you do with this mornings rain? I'm down in Rockville each day, so I can only watch on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 fyi, im going to start a new thread -- not sure the 1,000 post limit actually matters but we're going to go way over at this pt. will merge them at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think regardless of a along the coast track or a GFDL-like track...DC will likely see the same kind of winds...25 to 35 sustained (for a period) gusts to 45 or 50... I agree. I think TS force sustained winds (for at least a brief period) are likely with any track on or left of the GFS. I think gusts to hurricane force are certainly in the cards near the water (ocean or bay) and points east of Baltimore with a similar track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 It has been difficult to determine whether the hurricane has gone through an eyewall replacement. Although the radius of maximum wind is larger today than yesterday...microwave and aircraft data have not been very conclusive. Recent data do not show any evidence of a secondary eyewall at this time. The eye is a little more evident in the last few visible satellite images...but is not as clear as it was yesterday morning. The Air Force aircraft has measured a peak flight-level wind of 112 kt and SFMR winds of 90 kt...which roughly support the 100-kt initial intensity. Center fixes from the aircraft overnight and this morning indicate that the expected north-northwestward turn has occurred. A northward turn is expected tonight or early Friday as Irene moves through a break in the subtropical ridge. A mid/upper-level trough moving through the Great Lakes region is expected to then turn Irene toward the north-northeast in a couple of days. This trough is forecast to bypass Irene...leaving the hurricane in deep southerly flow between a trough over the central United States and a building ridge over the Atlantic. This pattern will likely keep the hurricane very near the East Coast of the United States. The guidance envelope has shifted a little westward on this cycle...and the new official track has been nudged west as well. The new forecast lies between the GFS and ECMWF...and is a little right of the tvca consensus. Since Irene is such a large tropical cyclone...significant impacts are likely along the United States East Coast regardless of the exact track it takes. The environment remains conducive for some additional strengthening during the next day or two. The main influencing factor during the short term will likely be eyewall cycles which are difficult to predict. After 48 hours...southwesterly shear is forecast to increase which will likely start weakening process. However... since Irene has such a large and intense circulation...it will probably be rather slow to weaken. Forecast positions and Max winds init 25/1500z 25.9n 76.8w 100 kt 115 mph 12h 26/0000z 27.5n 77.5w 105 kt 120 mph 24h 26/1200z 29.5n 77.8w 110 kt 125 mph 36h 27/0000z 31.4n 77.5w 105 kt 120 mph 48h 27/1200z 33.3n 77.1w 100 kt 115 mph 72h 28/1200z 37.8n 75.3w 85 kt 100 mph 96h 29/1200z 45.0n 71.5w 55 kt 65 mph...inland 120h 30/1200z 54.0n 64.5w 45 kt 50 mph...Post-trop/extratrop $$ forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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