Got Haggis? Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is a terrible question... but what is the likelyhood of a large city (say Baltimore) losing power if it takes a beating? Are cities generally more prepared for this kind of thing vs. rural areas? well when Isabel hit, I was living in Bethesda....we lost power for 7 days, it was not a fun experience. I live in Baltimore now and don't have much faith in BGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I know that its the nam at 84 hrs.... but was does the nam show? still on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 through 54 hrs, NAM around 25 miles east of 6Z run How was the 6z run? 63 hrs OBX on 12z NAM looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 In the big picture what you are saying is probably the best case scenario as far as property damage does (other than going out to sea of course but that aint happening). It would be a relatively disorganized cat 1 as it crosses our latitude and coastal NJ and NYC would largely be spared in comparison to a landfall there. the euro track is probably almost perfect for me at least.. a bit west might be more interesting but that's arguable when you think of rain/wind combo i guess. if the storm comes across all eastern nc it will weaken fairly decently and it's also of course going to be more heavily weighted to the right with wind over time. we can't really get a "worst case" track with this system near dc proper at least i dont think. it might be a bit hairy from the bay and east but it does not look truly devastating to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ween, if we leave now we can be in AC for a late lunch......Screw a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 YORK, Pa. -- Between 200 and 230 employees from First Energy in Pennsylvania and Ohio were headed for Florida to help brace for Hurricane Irene when they got a call. Irene had shifted course. First Energy instructed the workers -- including eight from the York and Adams county area -- to turn around and aim for Virginia, Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Irene's new bull's eye. First Energy is the parent company of local power provider Met-Ed. Power companies routinely pitch in to help one another in the case of an emergency, spokesman Scott Surgeoner said. Irene's maximum sustained winds increased to near 115 mph with additional strengthening forecast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said. Evacuations began on a tiny barrier island off North Carolina as Hurricane Irene strengthened to a major Category 3 storm over the Bahamas on Wednesday with the East Coast in its sights. The requests to divert to the mid-Atlantic region came from Potomac Electric Power Company and Constellation Energy, parent company of Baltimore Gas and Electric. The personnel includes mostly line workers, who will do storm restoration work such as replacing poles and mounting new transformers. Matt Leininger, spokesman with the York-Adams Chapter of the Red Cross, said they've been getting two to three updates a day on Irene's location from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. "We've got all the information for what people can do to prepare for potential disasters, but no one reads it until the day after," Leininger said. The Red Cross' website received numerous hits Wednesday on how to survive an earthquake. Leininger said they're taking the news day-by-day, but are prepared to pre-deploy to surrounding areas, including Philadelphia and Baltimore. Meteorologist Steve Travis with AccuWeather.com said Irene is expected to shift from its northwest path of travel to a northeast path by late Thursday. It should reach the Outer Banks by 8 p.m. Saturday as a Category 3 storm, he said, and reach the New Jersey coast line Sunday, weakening to a Category 2. York County is expected to get one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rain with wind gusts less than 40 mph, but there's "still a whole lot of uncertainty," Travis said. The Associated Press contributed to this report. How to prepare --Listen to a NOAA weather radio for information from the National Weather Service. --Gather loose items in your yard that could be picked up by the wind. --Turn the refrigerator and freezer to the coldest setting and keep them closed so that food will last longer if the power goes out. --Fill your car's gas tank. --Prepare a first aid kit, flashlight and battery-powered radio. http://www.istockanalyst.com/business/news/5378876/local-power-company-employees-head-to-florida-wait-washington# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm not so sure we'd get that high. Right now, 5-6 isn't a bad idea. I agree with the rest of your post. TS winds around here +Pepco = misery. Drizzle and a bee farting sideways+ Pepco = misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm in the other camp; I would prefer that forecast while watching the flooding and destruction on the TV anyway, I'm supposed to be going here in a few weeks and fear it will be gone http://hiltongardeni...ctyhocn=ORFKHGI We have rented a house first row along the beach road in Kitty Hawk from September 10-15. Interested to see how they make out this weekend. I imagine there may not be as much beach there when we arrive regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM has definitely moved east. Put the very tight precip gradient back across our area...roughly along the falls-line in MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I know that its the nam at 84 hrs.... but was does the nam show? I look at it for fun too, but for those who don't know, the NAM is a terrible model to use for the tropics (and some would argue a terrible model to use period beyond 48-60 hours ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM has definitely moved east. Put the very tight precip gradient back across our area...roughly along the falls-line in MD. true...a little east from 6z...but not really from 0z....and i'm not getting bent out of shape about qpf fields for a tropical system on the NAM...still is a terrible run for coastal areas and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJField Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We have rented a house first row along the beach road in Kitty Hawk from September 10-15. Interested to see how they make out this weekend. I imagine there may not be as much beach there when we arrive regardless. We have rented a house first row along the beach road in Kitty Hawk patch of water where there used to be a beach. Bring a boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Let's see if anyone jumps out of the ship over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think it was posted earlier, but I've decided to ride the 06Z GFDL until something better comes along http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2011082506-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Let's see if anyone jumps out of the ship over the NAM. Storm Cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 true...a little east from 6z...but not really from 0z....and i'm not getting bent out of shape about qpf fields for a tropical system on the NAM...still is a terrible run for coastal areas and NYC Agree. NAM is not the one we should be giving much weight either. I think it was posted earlier, but I've decided to ride the 06Z GFDL until something better comes along http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation But there wouldn't be any TS force winds when it got here after that far of an overland track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Let's see if anyone jumps out of the ship over the NAM. ... jumping ship over the 84 hr nam for a tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 But there wouldn't be any TS force winds when it got here after that far of an overland track! I just want the rain, wind is gonna be meh anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Agree. NAM is not the one we should be giving much weight either. But there wouldn't be any TS force winds when it got here after that far of an overland track! true! at least it didn't swing 200 miles to the east...haha I think regardless of a along the coast track or a GFDL-like track...DC will likely see the same kind of winds...25 to 35 sustained (for a period) gusts to 45 or 50... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is this looking like we are going to have an Isabel repeat for the Hampton Roads area?...or worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Why on the weekend, though? I could do with a day off of work! Hopefully Pepco remains incompetent and is unable to restore power to the office on Monday (should power be affected)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Let's see if anyone jumps out of the ship over the NAM. We don't even use the NAM much in this range for noreasters. It could be right but as I said last night it's still in spray range. Save time.. Only look at GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The NOAA HFIP is also acceptable http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011082500-irene09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We don't even use the NAM much in this range for noreasters. It could be right but as I said last night it's still in spray range. Save time.. Only look at GFS/Euro. yeah, one of the things I've learned here in the winter is to trust the NAM when its in the "deadly" range of 48 hours or less. also, just learned NAM sucks for tropical storms. Looking forward to the 12z GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 30-40% Now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Kevin, with 130 people read this thread right now, 62 of them guests... I'm not sure you are helping, or hindering things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Kevin, with 130 people read this thread right now, 62 of them guests... I'm not sure you are helping, or hindering things haha, hours between model runs can be pretty dull. Not like these aren't credible models though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Traveling to Philly on Sat morning for wedding. So Sat looks like it will be ok in the am for the road. But will we be able to get back Sun afternoon? THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT SINCE, SINCE, SINCE, GEEZ, LIKE WHO CAN REMEMBER, AND I HAVE TO TRAVEL 95??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I just want the rain, wind is gonna be meh anyways Agree. Amazing the differences in just 50 miles. Radar estimates for last 90 days are 3-4" for SW Frederick County and 15-20" for parts of Baltimore. I'd estimate we are about 5-7" below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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