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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Sustained TS winds into DC area would do some damage for sure. GFS was also advertising a predecessor rain as well last night. I guess maybe that's factored into overall but 10"+ from today thru the end is probably not out of the question at this pt.

I'm not so sure we'd get that high. Right now, 5-6 isn't a bad idea. I agree with the rest of your post. TS winds around here +Pepco = misery.

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Look, let's be honest here and call this what it is.

Trees will fall, power will be out for days, dogs and cats will begin sleeping with each other, the rivers will turn to blood.

And this is just from the heavy rain today.

So... death expected by Sunday night?

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I'm not so sure we'd get that high. Right now, 5-6 isn't a bad idea. I agree with the rest of your post. TS winds around here +Pepco = misery.

I'm talking including today through the end. And history says a slow moving storm on this path could do it by itself.

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Look, let's be honest here and call this what it is.

Trees will fall, power will be out for days, dogs and cats will begin sleeping with each other, the rivers will turn to blood.

And this is just from the heavy rain today.

I sure hope not

I still can't figure out how to tell if a puzzy cat is female

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I think I want another shift or two west as I'd be nervous of some final shifts east. Breathing room ftw. Plus we should get kudos for taking one on the chin for NYC if it happens.

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are you fooking nuts?

we'll see on intensity.. a storm hitting nc and over land for 18+ hrs before getting here. if i could choose i'd take just about the current euro track but that seems unlikely given we're still a bit out.

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I think I want another shift or two west as I'd be nervous of some final shifts east. Breathing room ftw. Plus we should get kudos for taking one on the chin for NYC if it happens.

You ok man? I would not want to be sitting in a fox hole with you as you would be praying that the next artillery shell hits us.

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I think the most important question of all this is, how in the world am I going to keep my beer cold without power?

Priorities, people.

easy. buy bagged ice, keep it in the freezer until the power goes out, put bagged ice into cooler, transfer beer. done.

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You ok man? I would not want to be sitting in a fox hole with you as you would be praying that the next artillery shell hits us.

I might be underestimating the wind but this seems like a better scenario for everyone than a 15' storm surge into NYC.

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This is from Mt. Holly AFD/Reposted from Philly board.

INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET

NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS

INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS

WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS

SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL

AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. AS STATED

BEFORE, LOTS TO IRON OUT WITH THE DETAILS AS IT DEPENDS ON THE

EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PICKING UP FORWARD

SPEED AS IT GAINES LATITUDE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER

WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, WE TAPERED THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH A

BIT FASTER AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PW VALUES

FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 2.0-2.5

INCHES OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF THE

CENTER GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE

PW VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER 3.0 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF

MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES

AND TOTALS. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND/OR

LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE RAIN RATES. THE

INITIAL INFLUX OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR ALONG WITH THE

PRESENCE OF A COASTAL TYPE FRONT COULD LEAD TO BOUTS OF LOCALLY

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WELL BEFORE THE HURRICANE GETS TO OUR LATITUDE. WE

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND

ALSO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE

WEATHER/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS ON THE LOW SIDE ALTHOUGH THIS STILL

NEEDS TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH

TROPICAL CYCLONES, ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST.

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I might be underestimating the wind but this seems like a better scenario for everyone than a 15' storm surge into NYC.

In the big picture what you are saying is probably the best case scenario as far as property damage does (other than going out to sea of course but that aint happening).

It would be a relatively disorganized cat 1 as it crosses our latitude and coastal NJ and NYC would largely be spared in comparison to a landfall there.

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