snowfan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It seems that way - snowfan has made a mega ark... while mine is just the usual ark. I understand if you need to reserve your seat elsewhere. I could always tow your ark behind mine and we could have an ark block party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It seems that way - snowfan has made a mega ark... while mine is just the usual ark. I understand if you need to reserve your seat elsewhere. You've got booze AND junk food, you know where my allegiance lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think stocking up on beer and batteries tomorrow will be a good idea! Wonder how bad it will get in the DC area? I will be mightily bored should power be lost, though (as exciting as it can be)..... Beer and wine are a must. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 112mph from that Ocean City release. LOL pretty darn exact. 112mph gusts at 9am. That's some fu-king black magic meteorology right there boys and girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 112mph gusts at 9am. That's some fu-king black magic meteorology right there boys and girls. They probably got that forecast from one of those beach psychic places. Or maybe that lady in the arcade (the robotic psychic woman) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 You've got booze AND junk food, you know where my allegiance lies. I've designated Andy as the boats bartender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sustained TS winds into DC area would do some damage for sure. GFS was also advertising a predecessor rain as well last night. I guess maybe that's factored into overall but 10"+ from today thru the end is probably not out of the question at this pt. I'm not so sure we'd get that high. Right now, 5-6 isn't a bad idea. I agree with the rest of your post. TS winds around here +Pepco = misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Look, let's be honest here and call this what it is. Trees will fall, power will be out for days, dogs and cats will begin sleeping with each other, the rivers will turn to blood. And this is just from the heavy rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Look, let's be honest here and call this what it is. Trees will fall, power will be out for days, dogs and cats will begin sleeping with each other, the rivers will turn to blood. And this is just from the heavy rain today. So... death expected by Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So... death expected by Sunday night? Will there even be anyone left by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Look, let's be honest here and call this what it is. Trees will fall, power will be out for days, dogs and cats will begin sleeping with each other, the rivers will turn to blood. And this is just from the heavy rain today. Someone say Raining Blood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm not so sure we'd get that high. Right now, 5-6 isn't a bad idea. I agree with the rest of your post. TS winds around here +Pepco = misery. I'm talking including today through the end. And history says a slow moving storm on this path could do it by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Look, let's be honest here and call this what it is. Trees will fall, power will be out for days, dogs and cats will begin sleeping with each other, the rivers will turn to blood. And this is just from the heavy rain today. I sure hope not I still can't figure out how to tell if a puzzy cat is female Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think I want another shift or two west as I'd be nervous of some final shifts east. Breathing room ftw. Plus we should get kudos for taking one on the chin for NYC if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think I want another shift or two west as I'd be nervous of some final shifts east. Breathing room ftw. Plus we should get kudos for taking one on the chin for NYC if it happens. are you fooking nuts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 are you fooking nuts? We are only 50 miles on the GFS from breezy and showery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 are you fooking nuts? we'll see on intensity.. a storm hitting nc and over land for 18+ hrs before getting here. if i could choose i'd take just about the current euro track but that seems unlikely given we're still a bit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think I want another shift or two west as I'd be nervous of some final shifts east. Breathing room ftw. Plus we should get kudos for taking one on the chin for NYC if it happens. You ok man? I would not want to be sitting in a fox hole with you as you would be praying that the next artillery shell hits us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think the most important question of all this is, how in the world am I going to keep my beer cold without power? Priorities, people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think the most important question of all this is, how in the world am I going to keep my beer cold without power? Priorities, people. easy. buy bagged ice, keep it in the freezer until the power goes out, put bagged ice into cooler, transfer beer. done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think the most important question of all this is, how in the world am I going to keep my beer cold without power? Priorities, people. go steal a CO2 Fire Extinguisher. and discharge it on the beer. Ice cold baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 You ok man? I would not want to be sitting in a fox hole with you as you would be praying that the next artillery shell hits us. I might be underestimating the wind but this seems like a better scenario for everyone than a 15' storm surge into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is from Mt. Holly AFD/Reposted from Philly board. INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. AS STATED BEFORE, LOTS TO IRON OUT WITH THE DETAILS AS IT DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT GAINES LATITUDE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, WE TAPERED THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH A BIT FASTER AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PW VALUES FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 2.0-2.5 INCHES OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF THE CENTER GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PW VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER 3.0 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND/OR LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE RAIN RATES. THE INITIAL INFLUX OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A COASTAL TYPE FRONT COULD LEAD TO BOUTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WELL BEFORE THE HURRICANE GETS TO OUR LATITUDE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND ALSO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS ON THE LOW SIDE ALTHOUGH THIS STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES, ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So... death expected by Sunday night? Follow me--Follow me to FREEDOM! http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3667840817343120461 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I might be underestimating the wind but this seems like a better scenario for everyone than a 15' storm surge into NYC. I agree with this. 15' storm surge into NYC is far less than ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We are only 50 miles on the GFS from breezy and showery. I'm in the other camp; I would prefer that forecast while watching the flooding and destruction on the TV anyway, I'm supposed to be going here in a few weeks and fear it will be gone http://hiltongardeninn.hilton.com/en/gi/hotels/index.jhtml?ctyhocn=ORFKHGI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I know that its the nam at 84 hrs.... but was does the nam show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Count me on board with Ian's idea - another 25 mile shift west would be nice from the euro to give us breathing room. I'm thinking a hybrid Euro/GFS (shocking) solution looks most likely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 through 54 hrs, NAM around 25 miles east of 6Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I might be underestimating the wind but this seems like a better scenario for everyone than a 15' storm surge into NYC. In the big picture what you are saying is probably the best case scenario as far as property damage does (other than going out to sea of course but that aint happening). It would be a relatively disorganized cat 1 as it crosses our latitude and coastal NJ and NYC would largely be spared in comparison to a landfall there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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