Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)

[mappy]

Look, let's be honest here and call this what it is.

Trees will fall, power will be out for days, dogs and cats will begin sleeping with each other, the rivers will turn to blood.

And this is just from the heavy rain today.

So... death expected by Sunday night?

[stormtracker]

So... death expected by Sunday night?

Will there even be anyone left by then?

[RickinBaltimore]

Look, let's be honest here and call this what it is.

Trees will fall, power will be out for days, dogs and cats will begin sleeping with each other, the rivers will turn to blood.

And this is just from the heavy rain today.

Someone say Raining Blood?

[Ian]

I'm not so sure we'd get that high. Right now, 5-6 isn't a bad idea. I agree with the rest of your post. TS winds around here +Pepco = misery.

I'm talking including today through the end. And history says a slow moving storm on this path could do it by itself.

[mitchnick]

Look, let's be honest here and call this what it is.

Trees will fall, power will be out for days, dogs and cats will begin sleeping with each other, the rivers will turn to blood.

And this is just from the heavy rain today.

I sure hope not

I still can't figure out how to tell if a puzzy cat is female

[Ian]

I think I want another shift or two west as I'd be nervous of some final shifts east. Breathing room ftw. Plus we should get kudos for taking one on the chin for NYC if it happens.

[mitchnick]

I think I want another shift or two west as I'd be nervous of some final shifts east. Breathing room ftw. Plus we should get kudos for taking one on the chin for NYC if it happens.

are you fooking nuts?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

are you fooking nuts?

We are only 50 miles on the GFS from breezy and showery.

[Ian]

are you fooking nuts?

we'll see on intensity.. a storm hitting nc and over land for 18+ hrs before getting here. if i could choose i'd take just about the current euro track but that seems unlikely given we're still a bit out.

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

I think I want another shift or two west as I'd be nervous of some final shifts east. Breathing room ftw. Plus we should get kudos for taking one on the chin for NYC if it happens.

You ok man? I would not want to be sitting in a fox hole with you as you would be praying that the next artillery shell hits us.

[Brianonymous]

I think the most important question of all this is, how in the world am I going to keep my beer cold without power?

Priorities, people.

[mappy]

I think the most important question of all this is, how in the world am I going to keep my beer cold without power?

Priorities, people.

easy. buy bagged ice, keep it in the freezer until the power goes out, put bagged ice into cooler, transfer beer. done.

[sauss06]

I think the most important question of all this is, how in the world am I going to keep my beer cold without power?

Priorities, people.

go steal a CO2 Fire Extinguisher. and discharge it on the beer. Ice cold baby

[Ian]

You ok man? I would not want to be sitting in a fox hole with you as you would be praying that the next artillery shell hits us.

I might be underestimating the wind but this seems like a better scenario for everyone than a 15' storm surge into NYC.

[clueless]

This is from Mt. Holly AFD/Reposted from Philly board.

INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET

NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS

INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS

WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS

SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL

AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. AS STATED

BEFORE, LOTS TO IRON OUT WITH THE DETAILS AS IT DEPENDS ON THE

EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PICKING UP FORWARD

SPEED AS IT GAINES LATITUDE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER

WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, WE TAPERED THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH A

BIT FASTER AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PW VALUES

FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 2.0-2.5

INCHES OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF THE

CENTER GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE

PW VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER 3.0 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF

MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES

AND TOTALS. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND/OR

LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL ADD TO THE RAIN RATES. THE

INITIAL INFLUX OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR ALONG WITH THE

PRESENCE OF A COASTAL TYPE FRONT COULD LEAD TO BOUTS OF LOCALLY

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WELL BEFORE THE HURRICANE GETS TO OUR LATITUDE. WE

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST AND

ALSO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE

WEATHER/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS ON THE LOW SIDE ALTHOUGH THIS STILL

NEEDS TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH

TROPICAL CYCLONES, ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST.

[jacindc]

So... death expected by Sunday night?

Follow me--Follow me to FREEDOM!

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3667840817343120461

[Kmlwx]

I might be underestimating the wind but this seems like a better scenario for everyone than a 15' storm surge into NYC.

I agree with this. 15' storm surge into NYC is far less than ideal.

[mitchnick]

We are only 50 miles on the GFS from breezy and showery.

I'm in the other camp; I would prefer that forecast while watching the flooding and destruction on the TV

anyway, I'm supposed to be going here in a few weeks and fear it will be gone http://hiltongardeninn.hilton.com/en/gi/hotels/index.jhtml?ctyhocn=ORFKHGI

[samdman95]

I know that its the nam at 84 hrs.... but was does the nam show?

[nj2va]

Count me on board with Ian's idea - another 25 mile shift west would be nice from the euro to give us breathing room. I'm thinking a hybrid Euro/GFS (shocking) solution looks most likely right now.

[mitchnick]

through 54 hrs, NAM around 25 miles east of 6Z run

[Bob Chill]

I might be underestimating the wind but this seems like a better scenario for everyone than a 15' storm surge into NYC.

In the big picture what you are saying is probably the best case scenario as far as property damage does (other than going out to sea of course but that aint happening).

It would be a relatively disorganized cat 1 as it crosses our latitude and coastal NJ and NYC would largely be spared in comparison to a landfall there.

[Got Haggis?]

This is a terrible question... but what is the likelyhood of a large city (say Baltimore) losing power if it takes a beating? Are cities generally more prepared for this kind of thing vs. rural areas?

well when Isabel hit, I was living in Bethesda....we lost power for 7 days, it was not a fun experience. I live in Baltimore now and don't have much faith in BGE

[snowfan]

I know that its the nam at 84 hrs.... but was does the nam show?

still on track

[yoda]

through 54 hrs, NAM around 25 miles east of 6Z run

How was the 6z run?

63 hrs OBX on 12z NAM looks like

[Ian]

In the big picture what you are saying is probably the best case scenario as far as property damage does (other than going out to sea of course but that aint happening).

It would be a relatively disorganized cat 1 as it crosses our latitude and coastal NJ and NYC would largely be spared in comparison to a landfall there.

the euro track is probably almost perfect for me at least.. a bit west might be more interesting but that's arguable when you think of rain/wind combo i guess. if the storm comes across all eastern nc it will weaken fairly decently and it's also of course going to be more heavily weighted to the right with wind over time. we can't really get a "worst case" track with this system near dc proper at least i dont think. it might be a bit hairy from the bay and east but it does not look truly devastating to me.

[weathergeek]

Ween, if we leave now we can be in AC for a late lunch......Screw a hurricane

[weathergeek]

YORK, Pa. -- Between 200 and 230 employees from First Energy in Pennsylvania and Ohio were headed for Florida to help brace for Hurricane Irene when they got a call. Irene had shifted course.

First Energy instructed the workers -- including eight from the York and Adams county area -- to turn around and aim for Virginia, Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Irene's new bull's eye.

First Energy is the parent company of local power provider Met-Ed. Power companies routinely pitch in to help one another in the case of an emergency, spokesman Scott Surgeoner said.

Irene's maximum sustained winds increased to near 115 mph with additional strengthening forecast, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

Evacuations began on a tiny barrier island off North Carolina as Hurricane Irene strengthened to a major Category 3 storm over the Bahamas on Wednesday with the East Coast in its sights.

The requests to divert to the mid-Atlantic region came from Potomac Electric Power Company and Constellation Energy, parent company of Baltimore Gas and Electric.

The personnel includes mostly line workers, who will do storm restoration work such as replacing poles and mounting new transformers.

Matt Leininger, spokesman with the York-Adams Chapter of the Red Cross, said they've been getting two to three updates a day on Irene's location from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

"We've got all the information for what people can do to prepare for potential disasters, but no one reads it until the day after," Leininger said. The Red Cross' website received numerous hits Wednesday on how to survive an earthquake.

Leininger said they're taking the news day-by-day, but are prepared to pre-deploy to surrounding areas, including Philadelphia and Baltimore.

Meteorologist Steve Travis with AccuWeather.com said Irene is expected to shift from its northwest path of travel to a northeast path by late Thursday.

It should reach the Outer Banks by 8 p.m. Saturday as a Category 3 storm, he said, and reach the New Jersey coast line Sunday, weakening to a Category 2.

York County is expected to get one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rain with wind gusts less than 40 mph, but there's "still a whole lot of uncertainty," Travis said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

How to prepare

--Listen to a NOAA weather radio for information from the National Weather Service.

--Gather loose items in your yard that could be picked up by the wind.

--Turn the refrigerator and freezer to the coldest setting and keep them closed so that food will last longer if the power goes out.

--Fill your car's gas tank.

--Prepare a first aid kit, flashlight and battery-powered radio.

http://www.istockanalyst.com/business/news/5378876/local-power-company-employees-head-to-florida-wait-washington#

[marked8]

I'm not so sure we'd get that high. Right now, 5-6 isn't a bad idea. I agree with the rest of your post. TS winds around here +Pepco = misery.

Drizzle and a bee farting sideways+ Pepco = misery.

[WVclimo]

I'm in the other camp; I would prefer that forecast while watching the flooding and destruction on the TV

anyway, I'm supposed to be going here in a few weeks and fear it will be gone http://hiltongardeni...ctyhocn=ORFKHGI

We have rented a house first row along the beach road in Kitty Hawk from September 10-15. Interested to see how they make out this weekend. I imagine there may not be as much beach there when we arrive regardless.