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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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what are you talking about? non-tidal Potomac? If, as depicted by the Euro, and the center of a dying hurricane or strong tropical storm came up or just of the Bay, there would not be a surge up the Potomac?

The Potomac is tidal until Georgetown, and all city storm planning is based on the assumption the perfect track of a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane to the west of the District would have an alarming storm surge, which is one reason they built a new levee on the mall after Katrina.

Not saying that would happen now, especially with track to the East, but the Euro seemed to me like it would cause a surge to rush up the bay?

Come again?

I meant up here in Little Falls/Glen Echo/Bethesda, not in DC...he was asserting he'd have to evacuate if the 00z Euro verified, no? There is no reason to evacuate Glen Echo.

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what are you talking about? non-tidal Potomac? If, as depicted by the Euro, and the center of a dying hurricane or strong tropical storm came up or just of the Bay, there would not be a surge up the Potomac?

The Potomac is tidal until Georgetown, and all city storm planning is based on the assumption the perfect track of a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane to the west of the District would have an alarming storm surge, which is one reason they built a new levee on the mall after Katrina.

Not saying that would happen now, especially with track to the East, but the Euro seemed to me like it would cause a surge to rush up the bay?

For certain there should be concern along any of the low lying tidal areas along the Potomac. Higher than normal tides coupled with downstream rains will make all flood prone areas worried. i am sure the authorities who know way more about these scenarios will start addressing it soon.

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Interesting new developments on the 6z GFS as well. 5-6(or 6-7!) inch line now pushing closer into eastern DC area whereas it was 4-5 on 00z. Definitely a trend west. Given the Euro, we need to watch if this continues. At the very least, I think I am going to head to the store to get some supplies for potential power outages and try to move my vehicle off the street.

New York still seems to get clobbered in any scenario, and I feel for the people who own homes in coastal North Carolina.

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Channel 11 certainly not sounding any concern yet for Baltimore. Pann steadfast with a forecast of the storm 50 miles or so off the coast as it bends NE and running graphic of "little to no storm surge" up the Chesapeake. Also said no rain into western MD and only some rain into Baltimore.

The only thing he didn't say was "climo, bitches", but it was implied. I think he should have shown a pic of a fish with arms while he was at it.

Tony has always been the more conservative one IMO.

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If it takes the Euro track, most certainly.

Either Pann didn't check the latest trends, or is discounting them. If he had explained his reasoning, that would have been interesting. He didn't, of course.

any track near the coast is going to drive east winds right into the bay. the center of isabell went from SE to NW to just SW of ric from se nc and look at the surge it brought

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any track near the coast is going to drive east winds right into the bay. the center of isabell went from SE to NW to just SW of ric from se nc and look at the surge it brought

To be fair those winds were SE to NW during the height of it and persisted in that direction, winds defnitely weren't NE to SW.

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Euro makes landfall near Morehead City, then right up the eastern shore (for those who haven't looked at wundermap) 5pm Sunday her center is over Churchill, MD.

both 00z and 06z don't make landfall until she is passed us...but 06z is a tad bit west than 00z.

Euro is a bit slower timing wise than the GFS

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Back in the game? Wow.

Yes, I think we are most certainly back in the game. Regardless of where she ends up, whether its as west as the Euro as her, or a little bit more east.... the eastern shore is in for a world of hurt.

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Yes, I think we are most certainly back in the game. Regardless of where she ends up, whether its as west as the Euro as her, or a little bit more east.... the eastern shore is in for a world of hurt.

Yeah, i have a friend in Bethany on Vaca, i just told them they better start paying attention

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Yes, I think we are most certainly back in the game. Regardless of where she ends up, whether its as west as the Euro as her, or a little bit more east.... the eastern shore is in for a world of hurt.

If it keeps shifting west even by very small increments it could be exciting for DC as well. Man this could be bad for east areas.

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Yeah, i have a friend in Bethany on Vaca, i just told them they better start paying attention

If it keeps shifting west even by very small increments it could be exciting for DC as well. Man this could be bad for east areas.

Yup. My sister, who works in OC (lives in Salisbury), has been ordered by my father to come home tomorrow. My in-laws all live in Salisbury so I'm worried about them, plus all of our closest friends are down there too. I've sent the word out on FB.

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Yup. My sister, who works in OC (lives in Salisbury), has been ordered by my father to come home tomorrow. My in-laws all live in Salisbury so I'm worried about them, plus all of our closest friends are down there too. I've sent the word out on FB.

Yesterday, i told them to leave no later then lunch saturday, but someone in the Philly thread told me to get them out today or tomorrow early. I kinda of chuckled when you said your dad "ordered" your sister home.......that would so be me telling my daughter that too!

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Yes, I think we are most certainly back in the game. Regardless of where she ends up, whether its as west as the Euro as her, or a little bit more east.... the eastern shore is in for a world of hurt.

There's alot of small towns all along the edge of the DE bay that aren't tourist attractions like Rehoboth, Dewey, Bethany, that are basically sitting right on the water. And they consist of homes that are either old or not in very good condition, not lavish by any means. Most have one small general store, and a firehall. But these people make their living off the water, and I'm sure they'll be requested to evacuate, but I don't know how many will actually leave. If this happens as we're now seeing, it wouldn't surprise me if some of these towns are simply gone when its all over.

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Euro makes landfall near Morehead City, then right up the eastern shore (for those who haven't looked at wundermap) 5pm Sunday her center is over Churchill, MD. both 00z and 06z don't make landfall until she is passed us...but 06z is a tad bit west than 00z. Euro is a bit slower timing wise than the GFS<b></b>[/quote

My mother lives about 10 miles west of there.

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Yesterday, i told them to leave no later then lunch saturday, but someone in the Philly thread told me to get them out today or tomorrow early. I kinda of chuckled when you said your dad "ordered" your sister home.......that would so be me telling my daughter that too!

I had told my mom not to make any decision on her leaving the eastern shore until today, but I guess my dad has the final say and he wants her home tomorrow night. So tomorrow night it is haha

There's alot of small towns all along the edge of the DE bay that aren't tourist attractions like Rehoboth, Dewey, Bethany, that are basically sitting right on the water. And they consist of homes that are either old or not in very good condition, not lavish by any means. Most have one small general store, and a firehall. But these people make their living off the water, and I'm sure they'll be requested to evacuate, but I don't know how many will actually leave. If this happens as we're now seeing, it wouldn't surprise me if some of these towns are simply gone when its all over.

I don't know if I would say they will be "gone" but then again... I really don't know. It sounds like it could be bad, but again... will really depend on where she goes.

My mother lives about 10 miles west of there.

I am no tropical expert by any means, but I'm not sure she will be coming that far west.

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Certainly got my interest back and I'm no longer bored with the storm. The GFDI is even west of the euro. The westward shift sure puts both ern NC and nyc under the gun. This scenario is one of the reasons why twc and other outlets were so aggressive talking about the storm. Another reason is probably ratings but this time, the two reasons appear to be dovetailing.

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I had told my mom not to make any decision on her leaving the eastern shore until today, but I guess my dad has the final say and he wants her home tomorrow night. So tomorrow night it is haha

I don't know if I would say they will be "gone" but then again... I really don't know. It sounds like it could be bad, but again... will really depend on where she goes.

I am no tropical expert by any means, but I'm not sure she will be coming that far west.

well, i guess she's comin home then, daddy laid down the law!

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