Riptide Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Oh lawd.....no comments here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Man. I wonder if this run is going to be the end of the westward shifts? This kinda reminds me of the models leading up to Katrina. All of a sudden they all started jumping west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So far 12z EURO/00z GFS/00z NAM (we believe)/00z UKIE (from what I can tell at 84 and 96) are "good" for us that want rain and wind from Irene Canadian says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So far 12z EURO/00z GFS/00z NAM (we believe)/00z UKIE (from what I can tell at 84 and 96) are "good" for us that want rain and wind from Irene Canadian says no I like those odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If the Euro sticks to its track, there is going to have be a major, major public education campaign starting in the morning about the potential. And Obama may have to set the example by leaving Martha's Vineyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NOGAPS I guess says yes if its making landfall at OBX and then goes over or slightly east of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 the 850 line is way to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is the RGEM an viable model? It says big time yes (Or so it would seem when extrapolated, if possible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf People in zone A are in big trouble and should evacuate ASAP. And if the track continues, zone B could be in trouble as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm sure they're on it. While perhaps the track is getting better known the intensity part is still a question. I do think the upper air environment should be unusually ideal for a storm this far north but it's also going to battle the usual suspects of drawing air off the continental u.s. and potentially going too slow over cooling (if warmer than normal) waters as it heads north. Gears are turning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 when will the euro be out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 when will the euro be out? Shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 00z GFDL :unsure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Boy, I wish I'd gotten that huge sycamore in my backyard pruned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 00z GFDL :unsure: that would be a miss for nyc at least... but holy cow we would be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 ECMWF wants to come up the Bay it seems, or something close to it. That would be incredibly windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 ECMWF wants to come up the Bay it seems, or something close to it. That would be incredibly windy. It does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 People need to be woken out of bed for this... Talk about attention Grabber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Winds on Euro look stronger than Isabel by quite a bit FWIW, Northerly though. Refuse to give the number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 holy ****ake mushrooms batman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Umm yeah really doubt it is this strong but wow this comes awefully close to DC 12hrs later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A track like that would funnel so much water up the bay/Potomac. Reagan Airport could go under, not to mention half of Dowtown Baltimoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Holy crap this might actually be serious. If the euro is right, we might even have to evacuate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Even if you split the difference between the EURO and GFS at this point, you are talking about brutal,destructive, storm for Ocean City, Rehoboth and all of southern Maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 first day of school for mcps (monday) might be delayed though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Holy crap this might actually be serious. If the euro is right, we might even have to evacuate... Umm no brotha I don't think we'd need to evactuate, not way up here. No surge to deal with, non-tidal potomac, and I'm on the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Holy crap this might actually be serious. If the euro is right, we might even have to evacuate... lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Umm no brotha I don't think we'd need to evactuate, not way up here. No surge to deal with, non-tidal potomac, and I'm on the river. what are you talking about? non-tidal Potomac? If, as depicted by the Euro, and the center of a dying hurricane or strong tropical storm came up or just of the Bay, there would not be a surge up the Potomac? The Potomac is tidal until Georgetown, and all city storm planning is based on the assumption the perfect track of a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane to the west of the District would have an alarming storm surge, which is one reason they built a new levee on the mall after Katrina. Not saying that would happen now, especially with track to the East, but the Euro seemed to me like it would cause a surge to rush up the bay if were to track like that verbatim, which we all know is extremely unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Joking aside, the DELMARVA is gonna get hammered. I'm not sure how well things will look over there if this sucker rolls up the bay or just E of it. I have heard the Northhampton Co VA is one of the poorest counties in Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Channel 11 certainly not sounding any concern yet for Baltimore. Pann steadfast with a forecast of the storm 50 miles or so off the coast as it bends NE and running graphic of "little to no storm surge" up the Chesapeake. Also said no rain into western MD and only some rain into Baltimore. The only thing he didn't say was "climo, bitches", but it was implied. I think he should have shown a pic of a fish with arms while he was at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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