Ellinwood Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Heh.. Naa. I try to shut weenies up, not get them excited. Tho I do like a Gulf scenario in some fashion. Thank God. Tell whoever is doing it (Samenow?) to knock it off Absolutely no reason to give the general public the idea of a Major in the Carib/Gulf when the much more realistic forecasts call for anywhere from a strong TS (NHC) to a strong Cat. 1 (Cat. 2 could be stretching it unless Irene avoids most of the land masses). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Thank God. Tell whoever is doing it (Samenow?) to knock it off Absolutely no reason to give the general public the idea of a Major in the Carib/Gulf when the much more realistic forecasts call for anywhere from a strong TS (NHC) to a strong Cat. 1 (Cat. 2 could be stretching it unless Irene avoids most of the land masses). I don't disagree with your thoughts much if at all. Intrigue sells, sadly. Any mention of the GFDL/HWRF should be footnoted at least that they love to go bonkers and are usually wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 For those who are wondering WTF is going on: I know I'm a little harsh going into it like that, but when you lead off talking about the possibility of a Cat. 4/5 with no mention of the NHC forecast of a high-end TS or that fact that most models indicate a much weaker system... that just can't stand. EDIT: With my first post I had to delete and re-post to fix a big grammar error... looks like someone got in a response before I got the re-post done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 I went and found it and posted but I should just stay out of it so I'm goin to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 00z GFS run should be juicy for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I went and found it and posted but I should just stay out of it so I'm goin to bed I like it I'm working the overnight tonight so I'll be up, but I don't see myself responding to it anymore... already got my point across. Thanks for adding your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 00z GFS run should be juicy for us eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 A well defined warm/dry tongue on 00z GFS? May bode well for severe/tornado risk perhaps if it were to come to fruition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Dryslot. I'll take my 4-6" and run. All models seem to have shifted east in a big way tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Now this should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 180 just east of DC into the Bay... this won't be good flooding wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Engage hype machine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Engage hype machine! Already engaged sir! Nevertheless... this run, if it were EXACT, would lead to some problems along the bay methinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Engage hype machine! It's been engaged I think. Weather is 95% hype these days.. It's slightly embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wow at that output lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 East is bad at this range IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It would be raining Sat night late from Irene 168-174 absolute dumping... prob 4 inches of rain in 12 hrs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfsp72192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 East is bad at this range IMO Agreed...but i don't know if this is a typical recurve scenario...both the central US heat ridge and the atlantic ridge are pretty strong...i think the uncertainty here is in both directions on the track depending on the exact axis of the weakness between the two...but you're right i'd rather it be out to the west of us at Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Agreed...but i don't know if this is a typical recurve scenario...both the central US heat ridge and the atlantic ridge are pretty strong...i think the uncertainty here is in both directions on the track depending on the exact axis of the weakness between the two...but you're right i'd rather it be out to the west of us at Day 5 Why is that? Better chance for rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Why is that? Better chance for rain? I would just say at this point there is an equal chance that the track trend could be either further west or further east....for this particular setup..i want to see how the 12z ensembles shifted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Agreed...but i don't know if this is a typical recurve scenario...both the central US heat ridge and the atlantic ridge are pretty strong...i think the uncertainty here is in both directions on the track depending on the exact axis of the weakness between the two...but you're right i'd rather it be out to the west of us at Day 5 Depends on if you want gusty winds/tornadoes or heavy rain. It's hard for remnants to give us both. Isabel was not a big rain producer for us, but it was for areas to the west of the center. Fran also was spotty in rain coverage east of the center (big difference between DCA and IAD) and will be remembered here for the winds and storm surge. But, too far west of us like in Opal, Frances, and Katrina and we 'just' end up seeing a few spin-ups, gusty winds, and not much rain. Ivan's big tornado outbreak happened while the center was to our SW. Jeanne, Hannah, Floyd, and Bertha were mostly remembered for the rain as they tracked east of us. Charley was too small to get us with much rain even though it was fairly close to the east. David was a good combo of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 FWIW, 12z NOGAPS looks similar to the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 12z CMC stays mainly offshore...go figure...eastward trend FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 12z EURO Irene The SV map has a 976mb center near Lumberton NC at 156 hours. 168 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Pressure in the 980s Brisk winds for DC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Pressure in the 980s What kind of winds would that bring for us? Doesn't that translate with weak hurricane strength? I figure it would be undergoing some type of transition though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 What kind of winds would that bring for us? Doesn't that translate with weak hurricane strength? I figure it would be undergoing some type of transition though. Sounds like the transition occurs just after us though... around 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Sounds like the transition occurs just after us though... around 180 So it would still be tropical over us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 So it would still be tropical over us? For the most part it seems.. transition would likely begin to occur as it reaches us is the vibe I am getting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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