yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Who's ready for the 00z GFS? This so feels like we are all in winter mode analyzing every single run almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Better view of 00z NAM at 84 http://weather.utah....1082500F084.gif Headed due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 e/e rule.. im increasingly confident parts of the dc area will get a solid rain event and probably some good wind (though maybe the worst as rain winds down?). now the gfs can go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Better view of 00z NAM at 84 http://weather.utah....1082500F084.gif Headed due north u gonna get raped boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 gfs is pretty far (almost surprisingly) west early.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well, I guess I should think about gathering up some candles, batteries and gallon jugs of water here in Queenstown since we're on a well... I'll probably make a store run tomorrow before things get hectic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 gfs is pretty far (almost surprisingly) west early.. Somehow (not surprisingly), it will wind up farther east when it gets to our neck of the woods. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 00z at 66 definitely SW of its 18z posit at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Slower and farther west at 54h... almost exact same position as 12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It might be premature.. but storm uncancel? At least we will be following the models with a (probably false) sense of hope for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 gfs looks nice.. very much like euro.. may even get a nj landfall edit: yep, looks like it at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Here in OBX, leaving Fri morning. This GFS run turned awful news for OBX into worse. And looks a good tad west for MD as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 00Z GFS is actually farther W than 12Z Euro at 18Z Sat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well that 84-hr picture is pretty much a Floyd repeat for the East Coast. ETA: And by 102 hr-- the GFS just shot Irene straight north into Eastern NY/Western Vermont. So, not quite Floyd anymore, but more like 1821? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 at this pt may have to hope it meanders long enough to weaken or runs into enough nc not to do what the euro/gfs show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 gfs looks nice.. very much like euro.. may even get a nj landfall edit: yep, looks like it at least DT claims western eyewall scrapes/is over Ocean City at 84... so this looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Going to be watching this carefully. I'm in SBY, which according to the 00z GFS will be sitting in the eyewall. First hurricane for which I'll be a homeowner too...sorta takes the fun out of it. My ears first perked up when I saw the Euro and GFS/EnKF this afternoon, but I figured it might just be a blip...so much for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 at this pt may have to hope it meanders long enough to weaken or runs into enough nc not to do what the euro/gfs show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Nice precip shield expansion into the DC area. 4-5 inches DC eastward but sharp gradient. Seems the models are having a relatively rough time narrowing down a specific track/intensity with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I love how Josh has to now decide whether to chase on Cape May, eastern LI, or Rhode Island. Once you miss the initial landfall for a mid-atlantic hurricane, you're left with the Northeast Bertha/Floyd type scraps of broken branches and large waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 at this pt may have to hope it meanders long enough to weaken or runs into enough nc not to do what the euro/gfs show Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 it's "cool" to see but this isnt a floyd imo. the aftermath could be ugly as is shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Meh...Major East Coast Hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Maybe this is the second "it could happen tomorrow" on the weather channel for NYC that comes true(Katrina was the other). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Why? http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I am almost for sure headed to Annapolis Saturday evening or Sunday morning (as long as it is clear by then that the rain shield makes it all the way over to us) with a couple of friends. Anyone want to join us? It's actually a pretty decent place to watch a tropical system or remnant for being so close to the DC. During Ernesto, I got to wade in the 4' storm surge as the water went in many close-to-dock restaurants and bars. Also, the winds were strong right on the water. The period of NE winds ahead of the storm will definitely bulge the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 http://www.nyc.gov/h...map_english.pdf I'm not the kindest person in the world...if this is what it takes to get some good rain, then so be it, I'm sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sign up the 00z UKIE on the train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 gfs looks nice.. very much like euro.. may even get a nj landfall edit: yep, looks like it at least jb and Dt arnt frauds but we are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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