caviman2201 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Slower and farther west at 54h... almost exact same position as 12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It might be premature.. but storm uncancel? At least we will be following the models with a (probably false) sense of hope for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 gfs looks nice.. very much like euro.. may even get a nj landfall edit: yep, looks like it at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Here in OBX, leaving Fri morning. This GFS run turned awful news for OBX into worse. And looks a good tad west for MD as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 00Z GFS is actually farther W than 12Z Euro at 18Z Sat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well that 84-hr picture is pretty much a Floyd repeat for the East Coast. ETA: And by 102 hr-- the GFS just shot Irene straight north into Eastern NY/Western Vermont. So, not quite Floyd anymore, but more like 1821? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 at this pt may have to hope it meanders long enough to weaken or runs into enough nc not to do what the euro/gfs show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 4:10 AM, Ian said: gfs looks nice.. very much like euro.. may even get a nj landfall edit: yep, looks like it at least DT claims western eyewall scrapes/is over Ocean City at 84... so this looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Going to be watching this carefully. I'm in SBY, which according to the 00z GFS will be sitting in the eyewall. First hurricane for which I'll be a homeowner too...sorta takes the fun out of it. My ears first perked up when I saw the Euro and GFS/EnKF this afternoon, but I figured it might just be a blip...so much for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 4:17 AM, Ian said: at this pt may have to hope it meanders long enough to weaken or runs into enough nc not to do what the euro/gfs show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Nice precip shield expansion into the DC area. 4-5 inches DC eastward but sharp gradient. Seems the models are having a relatively rough time narrowing down a specific track/intensity with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I love how Josh has to now decide whether to chase on Cape May, eastern LI, or Rhode Island. Once you miss the initial landfall for a mid-atlantic hurricane, you're left with the Northeast Bertha/Floyd type scraps of broken branches and large waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 4:17 AM, Ian said: at this pt may have to hope it meanders long enough to weaken or runs into enough nc not to do what the euro/gfs show Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 4:21 AM, yoda said: it's "cool" to see but this isnt a floyd imo. the aftermath could be ugly as is shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Meh...Major East Coast Hurricane On 8/25/2011 at 4:21 AM, yoda said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Maybe this is the second "it could happen tomorrow" on the weather channel for NYC that comes true(Katrina was the other). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 4:24 AM, BethesdaWX said: Why? http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I am almost for sure headed to Annapolis Saturday evening or Sunday morning (as long as it is clear by then that the rain shield makes it all the way over to us) with a couple of friends. Anyone want to join us? It's actually a pretty decent place to watch a tropical system or remnant for being so close to the DC. During Ernesto, I got to wade in the 4' storm surge as the water went in many close-to-dock restaurants and bars. Also, the winds were strong right on the water. The period of NE winds ahead of the storm will definitely bulge the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 4:31 AM, real said: http://www.nyc.gov/h...map_english.pdf I'm not the kindest person in the world...if this is what it takes to get some good rain, then so be it, I'm sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sign up the 00z UKIE on the train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 4:10 AM, Ian said: gfs looks nice.. very much like euro.. may even get a nj landfall edit: yep, looks like it at least jb and Dt arnt frauds but we are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Oh lawd.....no comments here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Man. I wonder if this run is going to be the end of the westward shifts? This kinda reminds me of the models leading up to Katrina. All of a sudden they all started jumping west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So far 12z EURO/00z GFS/00z NAM (we believe)/00z UKIE (from what I can tell at 84 and 96) are "good" for us that want rain and wind from Irene Canadian says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 4:54 AM, yoda said: So far 12z EURO/00z GFS/00z NAM (we believe)/00z UKIE (from what I can tell at 84 and 96) are "good" for us that want rain and wind from Irene Canadian says no I like those odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If the Euro sticks to its track, there is going to have be a major, major public education campaign starting in the morning about the potential. And Obama may have to set the example by leaving Martha's Vineyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NOGAPS I guess says yes if its making landfall at OBX and then goes over or slightly east of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 the 850 line is way to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Is the RGEM an viable model? It says big time yes (Or so it would seem when extrapolated, if possible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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