real Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think part of the problem is you can't wait till Friday, heading into a weekend, to convince people this could be for real or to start evacuating parts of Long Island, if such a decision is deemed necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 I said earlier in another thread their graphic is generally pretty correct. I doubt the whole pink area would see those conditions necessarily but any part of it could it seems. Tomorrow it will really ratchet up I'd guess if things hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yeah well TWC is beating the EXTREME drum and scaring the hell out of everyone on the east coast from hatteras to new england, They constantly show the gfs and ec locations and track. However the NHC track is a little bit different. I,m not really sure what to believe, but with 3 days to go, it seems like a bit of overdoing this. I maybe wrong here, but even fox news is beating the drum. Their tracks are not what the ec and gfs are showing. I just dont trust all this yelling wolf this far out. If this were friday , it would be different. If this does not happen then there are going to be a lot of peopple who will get the hell kicked out of them. Getting people off the outer banks is not a one day deal. there are only two roads out and a ferry and this is peak season so there are a lot of people on the barrier islands. I forget how long studies say if takes but do know they need lots of lead time. If it were Friday and the storm were to hit the outerbanks, the evacuation would have been started too late. That's the reason for the mandatory evacuation and for crying wolf. The cone of uncertainty is big enough that they have little choice. Farther north there is more time but I suspect some of the same problems are present for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Getting people off the outer banks is not a one day deal. there are only two roads out and a ferry and this is peak season so there are a lot of people on the barrier islands. I forget how long studies say if takes but do know they need lots of lead time. If it were Friday and the storm were to hit the outerbanks, the evacuation would have been started too late. That's the reason for the mandatory evacuation and for crying wolf. The cone of uncertainty is big enough that they have little choice. Farther north there is more time. getting across Wright Memorial Bridge on a typical summer Sat or Sun is often a nightmare when I was down a couple Saturdays ago, I crawled on the bridge for an hour and ten minutes, and its only a few miles long but the biggest problem with getting on the beach is the series of traffic lights once across the Bridge; great planning there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 getting across Wright Memorial Bridge on a typical summer Sat or Sun is often a nightmare when I was down a couple Saturdays ago, I crawled on the bridge for an hour and ten minutes, and its only a few miles long but the biggest problem with getting on the beach is the series of traffic lights once across the Bridge; great planning there everyone leaving at once would be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Getting people off the outer banks is not a one day deal. there are only two roads out and a ferry and this is peak season so there are a lot of people on the barrier islands. I forget how long studies say if takes but do know they need lots of lead time. If it were Friday and the storm were to hit the outerbanks, the evacuation would have been started too late. That's the reason for the mandatory evacuation and for crying wolf. The cone of uncertainty is big enough that they have little choice. Farther north there is more time but I suspect some of the same problems are present for Long Island. That is one place that I would not want to be in a hurricane. A couple years ago we stayed in Duck and they had a strong thunderstorm come through and the roads were completely flooded out for atleast two days in spots. It is a very dangerous spot to be when a hurricane is passing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Check out Justin Berk's FB post: "Justin Berk, MeteorologistEarly look at the latest models. All of this talk about the mid range models pulling back west, but EVERY tropical model has Hurricane Irene east of Ocean City on Sunday, likely as a Cat 2 with max winds 105 mph 'at the eye wall'. It will be large and it will be strong. OC should get into hurricane force winds. A little more confident with that. Heavy rain will fall with flooding on the Delmarva...this is still the same. Baltimore may get in or sit just on the edge of the true rain bands... but tropical storm force winds likely for most of central Maryland Saturday night into Sunday. Again, this is still on point from the past two days." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This looks like the most legit threat for back here in a long time. We don't really get hurricanes so even TS-force winds would be very notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Check out Justin Berk's FB post: I am actually surprised that he isn't hyping this more for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Check out Justin Berk's FB post: Some points but the tropical models have diminishing returns with latitude. At this pt I'd go jus about all GFS/euro blend north of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Some points but the tropical models have diminishing returns with latitude. At this pt I'd go jus about all GFS/euro blend north of NC. 0Z NAM is right off HAT at 72 hrs and looking like most of the tropical models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Getting people off the outer banks is not a one day deal. there are only two roads out and a ferry and this is peak season so there are a lot of people on the barrier islands. I forget how long studies say if takes but do know they need lots of lead time. If it were Friday and the storm were to hit the outerbanks, the evacuation would have been started too late. That's the reason for the mandatory evacuation and for crying wolf. The cone of uncertainty is big enough that they have little choice. Farther north there is more time. And hurricanes are still pretty high in the American consciousness for being potentially huge disasters. Katrina is what people think of now for what hurricane can do. Ahead of Rita, there was that huge Houston evacuation that killed by far more people in the evacuation traffic than during the actual hurricane. But there was not much fuss raised about "crying wolf" since the general public was still skittish about Katrina. Then, of course, Ike came and vindicated the necessity of evacuation of low-lying area well ahead of time. Even when Gustav hit earlier that year, with the mandatory New Orleans evacuation, and did not come close to the worse-case effects, the public still responded by-and-large to the Ike evacuation orders. Floyd was probably the biggest test case of possible backlash against warnings-- more than 2 million evacuated, and they proved to be unnecessary for southern and central Florida and Georgia. But, with the mega- East Coast rains, Floyd was plenty bad enough and got plenty of national press for the destruction, so the conversation was more "it could have been even worse" than "the forecasters totally messed up." 3/01 was followed by huge public backlash against forecasters (death threats), but I believe that with 2004 and 2005 entrenched in our country's history, hurricanes are a different story than snowstorms for most. The "cone of uncertainty" is beaten to death by most TV mets, and evacuations decisions by EM's are really life-and-death type decisions. There's a respect that while the worst-case scenario very well might not happen in any given hurricane, it *can* happen, and when it does, the results are terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Check out Justin Berk's FB post: That's a solid climo forecast for where Irene is progged to track. Only edit I'd make is tropical storm force gusts Sat night and Sunday over Md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 0Z NAM is right off HAT at 72 hrs and looking like most of the tropical models the course toward the nc coast seems more or less set in stone at this point as it's just rounding the ridge. question is how far it goes till it turns more heavily north and then if it take a euro type movement or more solidly northeast. as usual, for now, the answer is probably somewhere down the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 the course toward the nc coast seems more or less set in stone at this point as it's just rounding the ridge. question is how far it goes till it turns more heavily north and then if it take a euro type movement or more solidly northeast. as usual, for now, the answer is probably somewhere down the middle. gonna' turn more north after 78hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 you go NAM I hoped you liked the winter of 10/11 for this run http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_ref_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p48_084l.gif some things never change around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 the 84 hr position looks quite close to the 12z euro as much as i can tell on those maps.. system also appears to be mainly going north. im not quite sure why we're talking about the 84 hr nam here or on the main board but i guess we gotta do something ot kill time. to me it looks fine for some decent effects across the area: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....am_p48_084l.gif some things never change around here A big 0.00" over Frederick. Now I know this map is correct!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p48_084l.gif some things never change around here The NAM at 84 hours for a decaying hurricane doesn't seem all that useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The NAM at 84 hours for a decaying hurricane doesn't seem all that useful. not usually, but its an ironic qpf map nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 The NAM at 84 hours for a decaying hurricane doesn't seem all that useful. 84 hrs is 12z sunday too... a majority of the rain would be after as that shield rotated in most likely. the nam is not going to model the storm correctly at this range and it's going to still also be in spray range where it's going to bounce around a lot. the run looks fine to me overall. comparo -- 6 hr difference, but almost same spot off va as eyeballed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Who's ready for the 00z GFS? This so feels like we are all in winter mode analyzing every single run almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Better view of 00z NAM at 84 http://weather.utah....1082500F084.gif Headed due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 e/e rule.. im increasingly confident parts of the dc area will get a solid rain event and probably some good wind (though maybe the worst as rain winds down?). now the gfs can go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Better view of 00z NAM at 84 http://weather.utah....1082500F084.gif Headed due north u gonna get raped boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 gfs is pretty far (almost surprisingly) west early.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well, I guess I should think about gathering up some candles, batteries and gallon jugs of water here in Queenstown since we're on a well... I'll probably make a store run tomorrow before things get hectic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 gfs is pretty far (almost surprisingly) west early.. Somehow (not surprisingly), it will wind up farther east when it gets to our neck of the woods. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 00z at 66 definitely SW of its 18z posit at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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