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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Oddly enough, crabbing went ballistic after Isabel. A good buddy of mine is a commercial crabber and he was shocked at how full his pots were for the 2 weeks following the storm. It happened all over the bay too and not just his area.

You may want to rebait the line again next week if Irene churns up the bay. Not looking like 50+ sustained yet but things can easily change.

Although calling crabs "animals" may be a stretch, being one that loves the bay, I enjoy observing their behavior and trying to figure out their habits. On that note, I read an article that probably belongs in the earthquake thread, but it relates to this too.

http://www.wtop.com/?nid=41&sid=2511224

Back on topic, whether crabs are plentiful or not, the reactions to the next gfs and euro runs should be entertaining reading.

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Did you all read that thing Bryan Norcross posted on his Facebook. page? Talk about sounding the alarm, not necessarily for us, but for everyone along the coast. Frankly, I am not sure anyone is listening, after last year, when a hurricane was forecast to come up the coast -- cancelling all sorts of Labor Day plans -- only to stay off-shore

Here is what he posted, about 7 p.m. ------ "EXTREME THREAT! ALL new information indicates that Irene is posing an extreme threat to ALL coastal locations from NC to New England INCLUDING NYC. If the storm follows the track and strength that the best computer programs are indicating, there will be extreme danger at the coast, it will be dangerous to be in high-rise buildings, transportation and other systems may be incapacitated. Get supplies NOW to stay home for a week. Do not plan to got to the coast this weekend."

And then this, "Here's the bottom line. It could change... forecasts are not perfect. But I have NEVER seen ALL of the best computer models consistently show this level of threat... a big powerful hurricane raking the entire coast and moving into New England... in my time looking at hurricanes. In my opinion, this risk require immediate action because the crush will likely begin tomorrow. If you prepare yourself and it doesn't come... have a party."

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Did you all read that thing Bryan Norcross posted on his Facebook. page? Talk about sounding the alarm, not necessarily for us, but for everyone along the coast. Frankly, I am not sure anyone is listening, after last year, when a hurricane was forecast to come up the coast -- cancelling all sorts of Labor Day plans -- only to stay off-shore

Here is what he posted, about 7 p.m. ------ "EXTREME THREAT! ALL new information indicates that Irene is posing an extreme threat to ALL coastal locations from NC to New England INCLUDING NYC. If the storm follows the track and strength that the best computer programs are indicating, there will be extreme danger at the coast, it will be dangerous to be in high-rise buildings, transportation and other systems may be incapacitated. Get supplies NOW to stay home for a week. Do not plan to got to the coast this weekend."

And then this, "Here's the bottom line. It could change... forecasts are not perfect. But I have NEVER seen ALL of the best computer models consistently show this level of threat... a big powerful hurricane raking the entire coast and moving into New England... in my time looking at hurricanes. In my opinion, this risk require immediate action because the crush will likely begin tomorrow. If you prepare yourself and it doesn't come... have a party."

Yeah well TWC is beating the EXTREME drum and scaring the hell out of everyone on the east coast from hatteras to new england, They constantly show the gfs and ec locations and track. However the NHC track is a little bit different. I,m not really sure what to believe, but with 3 days to go, it seems like a bit of overdoing this. I maybe wrong here, but even fox news is beating the drum. Their tracks are not what the ec and gfs are showing. I just dont trust all this yelling wolf this far out. If this were friday , it would be different. If this does not happen then there are going to be a lot of peopple who will get the hell kicked out of them.

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I said earlier in another thread their graphic is generally pretty correct. I doubt the whole pink area would see those conditions necessarily but any part of it could it seems. Tomorrow it will really ratchet up I'd guess if things hold.

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Yeah well TWC is beating the EXTREME drum and scaring the hell out of everyone on the east coast from hatteras to new england, They constantly show the gfs and ec locations and track. However the NHC track is a little bit different. I,m not really sure what to believe, but with 3 days to go, it seems like a bit of overdoing this. I maybe wrong here, but even fox news is beating the drum. Their tracks are not what the ec and gfs are showing. I just dont trust all this yelling wolf this far out. If this were friday , it would be different. If this does not happen then there are going to be a lot of peopple who will get the hell kicked out of them.

Getting people off the outer banks is not a one day deal. there are only two roads out and a ferry and this is peak season so there are a lot of people on the barrier islands. I forget how long studies say if takes but do know they need lots of lead time. If it were Friday and the storm were to hit the outerbanks, the evacuation would have been started too late. That's the reason for the mandatory evacuation and for crying wolf. The cone of uncertainty is big enough that they have little choice. Farther north there is more time but I suspect some of the same problems are present for Long Island.

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Getting people off the outer banks is not a one day deal. there are only two roads out and a ferry and this is peak season so there are a lot of people on the barrier islands. I forget how long studies say if takes but do know they need lots of lead time. If it were Friday and the storm were to hit the outerbanks, the evacuation would have been started too late. That's the reason for the mandatory evacuation and for crying wolf. The cone of uncertainty is big enough that they have little choice. Farther north there is more time.

getting across Wright Memorial Bridge on a typical summer Sat or Sun is often a nightmare

when I was down a couple Saturdays ago, I crawled on the bridge for an hour and ten minutes, and its only a few miles long

but the biggest problem with getting on the beach is the series of traffic lights once across the Bridge; great planning there

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getting across Wright Memorial Bridge on a typical summer Sat or Sun is often a nightmare

when I was down a couple Saturdays ago, I crawled on the bridge for an hour and ten minutes, and its only a few miles long

but the biggest problem with getting on the beach is the series of traffic lights once across the Bridge; great planning there

everyone leaving at once would be a nightmare.

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Getting people off the outer banks is not a one day deal. there are only two roads out and a ferry and this is peak season so there are a lot of people on the barrier islands. I forget how long studies say if takes but do know they need lots of lead time. If it were Friday and the storm were to hit the outerbanks, the evacuation would have been started too late. That's the reason for the mandatory evacuation and for crying wolf. The cone of uncertainty is big enough that they have little choice. Farther north there is more time but I suspect some of the same problems are present for Long Island.

That is one place that I would not want to be in a hurricane. A couple years ago we stayed in Duck and they had a strong thunderstorm come through and the roads were completely flooded out for atleast two days in spots. It is a very dangerous spot to be when a hurricane is passing through.

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Check out Justin Berk's FB post:

"Justin Berk, MeteorologistEarly look at the latest models. All of this talk about the mid range models pulling back west, but EVERY tropical model has Hurricane Irene east of Ocean City on Sunday, likely as a Cat 2 with max winds 105 mph 'at the eye wall'. It will be large and it will be strong. OC should get into hurricane force winds. A little more confident with that. Heavy rain will fall with flooding on the Delmarva...this is still the same. Baltimore may get in or sit just on the edge of the true rain bands... but tropical storm force winds likely for most of central Maryland Saturday night into Sunday. Again, this is still on point from the past two days."

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Check out Justin Berk's FB post:

Some points but the tropical models have diminishing returns with latitude. At this pt I'd go jus about all GFS/euro blend north of NC.

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Getting people off the outer banks is not a one day deal. there are only two roads out and a ferry and this is peak season so there are a lot of people on the barrier islands. I forget how long studies say if takes but do know they need lots of lead time. If it were Friday and the storm were to hit the outerbanks, the evacuation would have been started too late. That's the reason for the mandatory evacuation and for crying wolf. The cone of uncertainty is big enough that they have little choice. Farther north there is more time.

And hurricanes are still pretty high in the American consciousness for being potentially huge disasters. Katrina is what people think of now for what hurricane can do. Ahead of Rita, there was that huge Houston evacuation that killed by far more people in the evacuation traffic than during the actual hurricane. But there was not much fuss raised about "crying wolf" since the general public was still skittish about Katrina. Then, of course, Ike came and vindicated the necessity of evacuation of low-lying area well ahead of time. Even when Gustav hit earlier that year, with the mandatory New Orleans evacuation, and did not come close to the worse-case effects, the public still responded by-and-large to the Ike evacuation orders.

Floyd was probably the biggest test case of possible backlash against warnings-- more than 2 million evacuated, and they proved to be unnecessary for southern and central Florida and Georgia. But, with the mega- East Coast rains, Floyd was plenty bad enough and got plenty of national press for the destruction, so the conversation was more "it could have been even worse" than "the forecasters totally messed up."

3/01 was followed by huge public backlash against forecasters (death threats), but I believe that with 2004 and 2005 entrenched in our country's history, hurricanes are a different story than snowstorms for most. The "cone of uncertainty" is beaten to death by most TV mets, and evacuations decisions by EM's are really life-and-death type decisions. There's a respect that while the worst-case scenario very well might not happen in any given hurricane, it *can* happen, and when it does, the results are terrible.

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0Z NAM is right off HAT at 72 hrs and looking like most of the tropical models

the course toward the nc coast seems more or less set in stone at this point as it's just rounding the ridge. question is how far it goes till it turns more heavily north and then if it take a euro type movement or more solidly northeast. as usual, for now, the answer is probably somewhere down the middle.

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the course toward the nc coast seems more or less set in stone at this point as it's just rounding the ridge. question is how far it goes till it turns more heavily north and then if it take a euro type movement or more solidly northeast. as usual, for now, the answer is probably somewhere down the middle.

gonna' turn more north after 78hrs

nam_200_078l.gif

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the 84 hr position looks quite close to the 12z euro as much as i can tell on those maps.. system also appears to be mainly going north. im not quite sure why we're talking about the 84 hr nam here or on the main board but i guess we gotta do something ot kill time. to me it looks fine for some decent effects across the area: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_084l.gif

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The NAM at 84 hours for a decaying hurricane doesn't seem all that useful.

84 hrs is 12z sunday too... a majority of the rain would be after as that shield rotated in most likely. the nam is not going to model the storm correctly at this range and it's going to still also be in spray range where it's going to bounce around a lot. the run looks fine to me overall.

comparo -- 6 hr difference, but almost same spot off va as eyeballed

post-1615-0-31191700-1314241798.gif

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