SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z HWRF NW by 100 miles at 54 when comparing to 12z 60 Can u post the link please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Can u post the link please? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If we can pull this thing west, im going to be uber confident come winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I thought I was in the clique Hive, not a clique, silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 If we can pull this thing west, im going to be uber confident come winter Sounds like a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Pretty solid consensus....if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 New advisories soon, prepare for massive server failure! *brace* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Sounds like a bad idea. Ha, tell me about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm worried about a changeover if it comes too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We've got a Sunday to Sunday deal on Nags Head this upcoming week so needless to say I want Irene to book for New Bedford and cut short any assignation she had with the OBX. I'd already written Sunday off as collateral loss for being a weather weenie in the first place and, given the model trends, I thought we'd be good to go for Monday. So this latest trend is unwelcome and unwanted AFAIC. Last year we got chased off by Earl and lost a couple of days; this year Irene is probably going to cost us a day and perhaps more ... perhaps many more. Good thing we've got hurricane insurance. Planning a vacation on one of the most vulnerable locations on the Atlantic Seaboard during the heart the of tropical season, one should expect this kind of thing, but it's still a PITA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut85 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So I'm in a dilemma...I've been in Williamsburg, VA all summer interning at Colonial Williamsburg, but I'm due to drive home to Delaware County, PA (just sw of Philly) on Saturday. I don't know 1) if I should just drive home on Friday to be out of harms way or 2) if I should stick around and storm chase in Hampton Roads. However, maybe the Philly region will see a more direct hit anyway if some of these latest models hold out with the storm coming into South Jersey? Decisions, decisions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 BGE called my house to warn about the upcoming storm and their preparations. I don't remember them ever doing that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
esullivan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Either way - waders over your period costume. So I'm in a dilemma...I've been in Williamsburg, VA all summer interning at Colonial Williamsburg, but I'm due to drive home to Delaware County, PA (just sw of Philly) on Saturday. I don't know 1) if I should just drive home on Friday to be out of harms way or 2) if I should stick around and storm chase in Hampton Roads. However, maybe the Philly region will see a more direct hit anyway if some of these latest models hold out with the storm coming into South Jersey? Decisions, decisions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Meh 18z GFDL wind max at 900 mb -- http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/irene09l.2011082418_nest6th.png 18z HWRF wind max at 900mb -- http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/irene09l.2011082418_wind.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Meh 18z GFDL wind max at 900 mb -- http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/irene09l.2011082418_nest6th.png 18z HWRF wind max at 900mb -- http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/irene09l.2011082418_wind.png Lol were getting there, 00z comes any more west and we got something, not really meh worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We've got a Sunday to Sunday deal on Nags Head this upcoming week so needless to say I want Irene to book for New Bedford and cut short any assignation she had with the OBX. I'd already written Sunday off as collateral loss for being a weather weenie in the first place and, given the model trends, I thought we'd be good to go for Monday. So this latest trend is unwelcome and unwanted AFAIC. Last year we got chased off by Earl and lost a couple of days; this year Irene is probably going to cost us a day and perhaps more ... perhaps many more. Good thing we've got hurricane insurance. Planning a vacation on one of the most vulnerable locations on the Atlantic Seaboard during the heart the of tropical season, one should expect this kind of thing, but it's still a PITA. Feel for ya. Not sure if you've seen this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Meh 18z GFDL wind max at 900 mb -- http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/irene09l.2011082418_nest6th.png 18z HWRF wind max at 900mb -- http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/irene09l.2011082418_wind.png Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Am in OBX this week. Gas lines tonite. Folks no doubt getting ready to move out on Thursday, altho the daytime should still be a good beach day. Thurs nite into Sunday looks wet so many folks will be hitting the road after a few hours at the beach Thursday. Swells moved in Wed mid-morning. Ocean spray in the PM. By day,s end, noticeably rougher surf and stronger undertoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow, the nam also looks like it would be very wet. I'm torn, for fishing it would be better if it was a pure miss, for excitement, the Euro or NAm rock though even farther west would be more exciting. If history repeats itself, then the next couple of days should be stellar for crabbing. I'm baiting the trotline tonight because usually before the really big storms, crabs pretty much climb into the boat on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This cane is Huge!! Would fill up the gulf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If history repeats itself, then the next couple of days should be stellar for crabbing. I'm baiting the trotline tonight because usually before the really big storms, crabs pretty much climb into the boat on their own. Oddly enough, crabbing went ballistic after Isabel. A good buddy of mine is a commercial crabber and he was shocked at how full his pots were for the 2 weeks following the storm. It happened all over the bay too and not just his area. You may want to rebait the line again next week if Irene churns up the bay. Not looking like 50+ sustained yet but things can easily change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Oddly enough, crabbing went ballistic after Isabel. A good buddy of mine is a commercial crabber and he was shocked at how full his pots were for the 2 weeks following the storm. It happened all over the bay too and not just his area. You may want to rebait the line again next week if Irene churns up the bay. Not looking like 50+ sustained yet but things can easily change. Gonna be TS force gusts in Baltimore even if it didn't budge now, Hurricane conditions almost a guarantee in Ocean City. However, if tonights 0z's take this 25 miles more west, oh boy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Oddly enough, crabbing went ballistic after Isabel. A good buddy of mine is a commercial crabber and he was shocked at how full his pots were for the 2 weeks following the storm. It happened all over the bay too and not just his area. You may want to rebait the line again next week if Irene churns up the bay. Not looking like 50+ sustained yet but things can easily change. Although calling crabs "animals" may be a stretch, being one that loves the bay, I enjoy observing their behavior and trying to figure out their habits. On that note, I read an article that probably belongs in the earthquake thread, but it relates to this too. http://www.wtop.com/?nid=41&sid=2511224 Back on topic, whether crabs are plentiful or not, the reactions to the next gfs and euro runs should be entertaining reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 BGE called my house to warn about the upcoming storm and their preparations. I don't remember them ever doing that before. Was it a recording telling you that expect a rate increase next month to offset the costs of repairing potential damage to grid.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Was it a recording telling you that expect a rate increase next month to offset the costs of repairing potential damage to grid.... lol That was my first thought when my Mom said they called. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Did you all read that thing Bryan Norcross posted on his Facebook. page? Talk about sounding the alarm, not necessarily for us, but for everyone along the coast. Frankly, I am not sure anyone is listening, after last year, when a hurricane was forecast to come up the coast -- cancelling all sorts of Labor Day plans -- only to stay off-shore Here is what he posted, about 7 p.m. ------ "EXTREME THREAT! ALL new information indicates that Irene is posing an extreme threat to ALL coastal locations from NC to New England INCLUDING NYC. If the storm follows the track and strength that the best computer programs are indicating, there will be extreme danger at the coast, it will be dangerous to be in high-rise buildings, transportation and other systems may be incapacitated. Get supplies NOW to stay home for a week. Do not plan to got to the coast this weekend." And then this, "Here's the bottom line. It could change... forecasts are not perfect. But I have NEVER seen ALL of the best computer models consistently show this level of threat... a big powerful hurricane raking the entire coast and moving into New England... in my time looking at hurricanes. In my opinion, this risk require immediate action because the crush will likely begin tomorrow. If you prepare yourself and it doesn't come... have a party." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 everyone must have seen that twc graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
violinist Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Did you all read that thing Bryan Norcross posted on his Facebook. page? Talk about sounding the alarm, not necessarily for us, but for everyone along the coast. Frankly, I am not sure anyone is listening, after last year, when a hurricane was forecast to come up the coast -- cancelling all sorts of Labor Day plans -- only to stay off-shore Here is what he posted, about 7 p.m. ------ "EXTREME THREAT! ALL new information indicates that Irene is posing an extreme threat to ALL coastal locations from NC to New England INCLUDING NYC. If the storm follows the track and strength that the best computer programs are indicating, there will be extreme danger at the coast, it will be dangerous to be in high-rise buildings, transportation and other systems may be incapacitated. Get supplies NOW to stay home for a week. Do not plan to got to the coast this weekend." And then this, "Here's the bottom line. It could change... forecasts are not perfect. But I have NEVER seen ALL of the best computer models consistently show this level of threat... a big powerful hurricane raking the entire coast and moving into New England... in my time looking at hurricanes. In my opinion, this risk require immediate action because the crush will likely begin tomorrow. If you prepare yourself and it doesn't come... have a party." Yeah well TWC is beating the EXTREME drum and scaring the hell out of everyone on the east coast from hatteras to new england, They constantly show the gfs and ec locations and track. However the NHC track is a little bit different. I,m not really sure what to believe, but with 3 days to go, it seems like a bit of overdoing this. I maybe wrong here, but even fox news is beating the drum. Their tracks are not what the ec and gfs are showing. I just dont trust all this yelling wolf this far out. If this were friday , it would be different. If this does not happen then there are going to be a lot of peopple who will get the hell kicked out of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 what weather channel graphic? I don't watch the weather channel. didn't even realize until recently Brian Norcross works there now instead of in Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 what weather channel graphic? I don't watch the weather channel. didn't even realize until recently Brian Norcross works there now instead of in Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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