mattie g Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 i think i posted it. looks better... kinda slow CRAS is Number One model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EABiker Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 A long time lurker/hobbiest here, but I must say that a direct hit on OBX spells a potentially unrecoverable major economic disaster for the local economy and residents there; hope it curves far out east! Carry on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 0z is going to be, without a doubt, the most telling evar. Until the 12Z. ..and then 18Z. 00Z should at least give us some idea whether the westward shift is a wobble around the true solution or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z HWRF NW by 100 miles at 54 when comparing to 12z 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ban Yoda! Ban Yoda! Boot from the boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Boot from the boat But strong in the Force the boat will not be.. sense the future I can yes yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Boot from the boatYou can't boot me from my own boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 A long time lurker/hobbiest here, but I must say that a direct hit on OBX spells a potentially unrecoverable major economic disaster for the local economy and residents there; hope it curves far out east! Carry on! True. I have a friend who has a condo on hatteras that was rebuilt after isabel destroyed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z HWRF NW by 100 miles at 54 when comparing to 12z 60 Can u post the link please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Can u post the link please? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If we can pull this thing west, im going to be uber confident come winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I thought I was in the clique Hive, not a clique, silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 If we can pull this thing west, im going to be uber confident come winter Sounds like a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Pretty solid consensus....if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 New advisories soon, prepare for massive server failure! *brace* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Sounds like a bad idea. Ha, tell me about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm worried about a changeover if it comes too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We've got a Sunday to Sunday deal on Nags Head this upcoming week so needless to say I want Irene to book for New Bedford and cut short any assignation she had with the OBX. I'd already written Sunday off as collateral loss for being a weather weenie in the first place and, given the model trends, I thought we'd be good to go for Monday. So this latest trend is unwelcome and unwanted AFAIC. Last year we got chased off by Earl and lost a couple of days; this year Irene is probably going to cost us a day and perhaps more ... perhaps many more. Good thing we've got hurricane insurance. Planning a vacation on one of the most vulnerable locations on the Atlantic Seaboard during the heart the of tropical season, one should expect this kind of thing, but it's still a PITA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut85 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So I'm in a dilemma...I've been in Williamsburg, VA all summer interning at Colonial Williamsburg, but I'm due to drive home to Delaware County, PA (just sw of Philly) on Saturday. I don't know 1) if I should just drive home on Friday to be out of harms way or 2) if I should stick around and storm chase in Hampton Roads. However, maybe the Philly region will see a more direct hit anyway if some of these latest models hold out with the storm coming into South Jersey? Decisions, decisions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 BGE called my house to warn about the upcoming storm and their preparations. I don't remember them ever doing that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
esullivan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Either way - waders over your period costume. So I'm in a dilemma...I've been in Williamsburg, VA all summer interning at Colonial Williamsburg, but I'm due to drive home to Delaware County, PA (just sw of Philly) on Saturday. I don't know 1) if I should just drive home on Friday to be out of harms way or 2) if I should stick around and storm chase in Hampton Roads. However, maybe the Philly region will see a more direct hit anyway if some of these latest models hold out with the storm coming into South Jersey? Decisions, decisions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Meh 18z GFDL wind max at 900 mb -- http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/irene09l.2011082418_nest6th.png 18z HWRF wind max at 900mb -- http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/irene09l.2011082418_wind.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Meh 18z GFDL wind max at 900 mb -- http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/irene09l.2011082418_nest6th.png 18z HWRF wind max at 900mb -- http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/irene09l.2011082418_wind.png Lol were getting there, 00z comes any more west and we got something, not really meh worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXW176 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We've got a Sunday to Sunday deal on Nags Head this upcoming week so needless to say I want Irene to book for New Bedford and cut short any assignation she had with the OBX. I'd already written Sunday off as collateral loss for being a weather weenie in the first place and, given the model trends, I thought we'd be good to go for Monday. So this latest trend is unwelcome and unwanted AFAIC. Last year we got chased off by Earl and lost a couple of days; this year Irene is probably going to cost us a day and perhaps more ... perhaps many more. Good thing we've got hurricane insurance. Planning a vacation on one of the most vulnerable locations on the Atlantic Seaboard during the heart the of tropical season, one should expect this kind of thing, but it's still a PITA. Feel for ya. Not sure if you've seen this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Meh 18z GFDL wind max at 900 mb -- http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/irene09l.2011082418_nest6th.png 18z HWRF wind max at 900mb -- http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/irene09l.2011082418_wind.png Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Am in OBX this week. Gas lines tonite. Folks no doubt getting ready to move out on Thursday, altho the daytime should still be a good beach day. Thurs nite into Sunday looks wet so many folks will be hitting the road after a few hours at the beach Thursday. Swells moved in Wed mid-morning. Ocean spray in the PM. By day,s end, noticeably rougher surf and stronger undertoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow, the nam also looks like it would be very wet. I'm torn, for fishing it would be better if it was a pure miss, for excitement, the Euro or NAm rock though even farther west would be more exciting. If history repeats itself, then the next couple of days should be stellar for crabbing. I'm baiting the trotline tonight because usually before the really big storms, crabs pretty much climb into the boat on their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This cane is Huge!! Would fill up the gulf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If history repeats itself, then the next couple of days should be stellar for crabbing. I'm baiting the trotline tonight because usually before the really big storms, crabs pretty much climb into the boat on their own. Oddly enough, crabbing went ballistic after Isabel. A good buddy of mine is a commercial crabber and he was shocked at how full his pots were for the 2 weeks following the storm. It happened all over the bay too and not just his area. You may want to rebait the line again next week if Irene churns up the bay. Not looking like 50+ sustained yet but things can easily change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Oddly enough, crabbing went ballistic after Isabel. A good buddy of mine is a commercial crabber and he was shocked at how full his pots were for the 2 weeks following the storm. It happened all over the bay too and not just his area. You may want to rebait the line again next week if Irene churns up the bay. Not looking like 50+ sustained yet but things can easily change. Gonna be TS force gusts in Baltimore even if it didn't budge now, Hurricane conditions almost a guarantee in Ocean City. However, if tonights 0z's take this 25 miles more west, oh boy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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