Bob Chill Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Sure wouldn't take much of a shift west to at least make it interesting for us. Regardless, storm is pretty big so if some outer bands move through it will at least look and feel tropical. NYC just got destroyed with record daily rainfall last week and they are probably in for another big time deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Per Dendrite in the SNE thread -- "Euro ens came pretty far west too. Looks like the mean rides just offshore up the coast and then somewhere around LI-CT/RI." Anybody know about farther down here? ensemnble mean from nc north it's significantly west.. pretty similar to the op maybe a hair east up north.. like landfall could be further north than s nj but close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Cause we wait for the great 18z GFS GGEM ensemble mean has Irene over OBX it looks like (making landfall in NC) 84 http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12084.gif 96 http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12096.gif I would gather 90 would be 50-75 miles E of Norfolk 2-4" east of BR -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemblep72120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Those are 3 hr panels.. in case not obvious by how many. Almost back to the blue ridge and east in a n/s fashion is 4"+ -- maybe 30-50 miles east of blue ridge Wow, the nam also looks like it would be very wet. I'm torn, for fishing it would be better if it was a pure miss, for excitement, the Euro or NAm rock though even farther west would be more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 gfs came west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That is an impressive coastal scrape, if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Woohoooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My mega ark is ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 quite the roller coaster ride.....i can't take a heartbreaking shift back east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 shifted about 80 miles west off va beach since 6z. still maybe 50 miles east of euro at that pt but main difference is movement after.. euro almost due north, gfs more nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Lets hope tonights 0z doesn't let us down! Another 25-50 mile west jog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 shifted about 80 miles west off va beach since 6z. still maybe 50 miles east of euro at that pt but main difference is movement after.. euro almost due north, gfs more nne. yeah...it takes one a bit of an easterly component as its interacting with the second shortwave as it passes north of the Outer Banks...and then turns more due north as it approaches landfall in New England... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I need to find my Euro will come west post from the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Its a sharp cutoff re rain 18z GFS... west of the BR is little to nothing.... DC prob around an inch... St. Mary's 3-4" http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p24_096l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If the 18z NAM had continued... :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yoda what model is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yoda what model is that? DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yoda what model is that? DGEX at 108 hrs... I think its a continuation of the NAM... but not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 DGEX heavy heavy dirigible required if that were right... like .0000000001% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cajuncook Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It says DGEX. Edit: I'm a jerk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm all for a bit of TS or Cat 1 action over my house.. But Cat 2.. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 You can get 5 posted for posting the DGEX in a tropical thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow, the nam also looks like it would be very wet. I'm torn, for fishing it would be better if it was a pure miss, for excitement, the Euro or NAm rock though even farther west would be more exciting. Wes, I'm feeling EXACTLY the same way. Just finished up grad school and am going to live with some friends down at Piney Point in a waterfront house and help out around a local marina, but the main reason I'm going down is for relaxation and fishing. I'm worried Irene may not let me get much of a chance at Spanish Mackerel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 You can get 5 posted for posting the DGEX in a tropical thread. But this is our tropical thread But for real, I know... it was just a continuation of the NAM and I found it interesting to see what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ban Yoda! Ban Yoda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 You can get 5 posted for posting the DGEX in a tropical thread. You allowed the CRAS yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ban Yoda! Ban Yoda! I thought I was in the clique Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 You allowed the CRAS yesterday i think i posted it. looks better... kinda slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 0z is going to be, without a doubt, the most telling evar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I thought I was in the clique <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/sad.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />You are, I was just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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