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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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12z UKIE is west I guess...

96 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropical096.gif (979mb making landfall in NC SW of OBX)

120 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropical120.gif (978mb near E LI, but just south of it)

One could guess 108 is likely to be near 50-75 miles off OC as it goes by.. so a tad further east of the 12z EURO plot

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Ian,

Thanks, the maps show my house in at least two periods of over an inch so I'm guessing 3 inches or more based srickly on the euro. That has me interested again.

Wes

Those are 3 hr panels.. in case not obvious by how many. Almost back to the blue ridge and east in a n/s fashion is 4"+ -- maybe 30-50 miles east of blue ridge

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As LEK posted in the main forecast thread, the 12z GFS EnKF is essentially identical to the Euro's track.

Could the GFS EnKF be the weenie's new best friend come winter?

It needs to come wester. What's the GFS EnKF?

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As LEK posted in the main forecast thread, the 12z GFS EnKF is essentially identical to the Euro's track.

Could the GFS EnKF be the weenie's new best friend come winter?

So we have the EURO/GFS EnKF/GFDL (sorta?)

UKMET is up in the air, but I think leans toward us a lil

Did we get the NAM/SREFs yet? :devilsmiley:

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It needs to come wester. What's the GFS EnKF?

It's a version of the GFS which uses a hybrid variational/EnKF scheme for initialization...believe it will become operational next year sometime...it has shown a lot of promise in its test run....

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It needs to come wester. What's the GFS EnKF?

I just found out about it today. I guess it's a test version of the GFS that uses a "hybrid ensemble Kalman filter" data assimilation technique vs. the normal 3DVAR assimilation technique that the operational GFS uses. Apparently it has been scoring better than the GFS in most respects.

So we have the EURP/GFS EnKF/GFDL (sorta?)

UKMET is up in the air, but I think leans toward us a lil

Did we get the NAM/SREFs yet? :devilsmiley:

18z GFS will be critical. :popcorn:

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It's a version of the GFS which uses a hybrid variational/EnKF scheme for initialization...believe it will become operational next year sometime...it has shown a lot of promise in its test run....

What does EnKF mean?

On a side note: the lower bay is going to be in a world of hurt if these runs are anywhere close to right.

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What does EnKF mean?

On a side note: the lower bay is going to be in a world of hurt if these runs are anywhere close to right.

1. See my post above.

2. Agree. The whole coast from HAT to LI would be in for some major erosion/flooding if this verifies.

Side note...since all the NYC weenies are going to be without power soon anyway, can we just boot them off the board now so they don't crash it again?:whistle::devilsmiley:

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12z UKIE is west I guess...

96 -- http://raleighwx.ame...tropical096.gif (979mb making landfall in NC SW of OBX)

120 -- http://raleighwx.ame...tropical120.gif (978mb near E LI, but just south of it)

One could guess 108 is likely to be near 50-75 miles off OC as it goes by.. so a tad further east of the 12z EURO plot

looks quite a bit west to me

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What does EnKF mean?

On a side note: the lower bay is going to be in a world of hurt if these runs are anywhere close to right.

I have family right on the water (well a hundred yards back or so from the water) in St. Mary's County. Do you mean that part of the bay as well, or down near the mouth?

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I have family right on the water (well a hundred yards back or so from the water) in St. Mary's County. Do you mean that part of the bay as well, or down near the mouth?

for now i'd think mainly near the mouth.. virginia beach, norfolk, newport news etc. maybe a bit further north but those first areas take prolonged east winds before the center approaches to help pile up water etc.

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So the Euro and GFSEnKF have the hurricane at almost exactly the same distance from DC as Floyd was at its closest point-- right around Ocean City. For this area, Floyd dropped 3-10+" of rain (with the most rain right along the bay), and gave the 1-95 corridor and eastward several hours of frequent gusts over 40 mph. DCA did manage to snag an observation of sustained TS-force winds.

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the nam as insignificant as it is in the tropics (tho arguably more useful each run) and at 84 hrs is at least west of previous so there seems to be a general "trend" that way among the guidance

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the nam as insignificant as it is in the tropics (tho arguably more useful each run) and at 84 hrs is at least west of previous so there seems to be a general "trend" that way among the guidance

agree... it actually was west of the 12z and makes landfall in NC it looks like... I wish we could see 90-102 just to see for fun :arrowhead:

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agree... it actually was west of the 12z and makes landfall in NC it looks like... I wish we could see 90-102 just to see for fun :arrowhead:

the euro/gfs are about 30 miles east of there at that latitude so it's probably in the general park tho it's slow comparatively.

post-1615-0-47089400-1314220768.gif

(used wind b/c cant pull mslp on nam at 84)

these wundermodels are going to be addictive..

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