WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It needs to come wester. What's the GFS EnKF? I just found out about it today. I guess it's a test version of the GFS that uses a "hybrid ensemble Kalman filter" data assimilation technique vs. the normal 3DVAR assimilation technique that the operational GFS uses. Apparently it has been scoring better than the GFS in most respects. So we have the EURP/GFS EnKF/GFDL (sorta?) UKMET is up in the air, but I think leans toward us a lil Did we get the NAM/SREFs yet? 18z GFS will be critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's a version of the GFS which uses a hybrid variational/EnKF scheme for initialization...believe it will become operational next year sometime...it has shown a lot of promise in its test run.... What does EnKF mean? On a side note: the lower bay is going to be in a world of hurt if these runs are anywhere close to right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's a version of the GFS which uses a hybrid variational/EnKF scheme for initialization...believe it will become operational next year sometime...it has shown a lot of promise in its test run.... I'm hugging it so close I'm the little spoon right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 This is a cool page.. Euro/GFS/GFDL/HWRF all in one http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/uv900panel3_anim.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What does EnKF mean? On a side note: the lower bay is going to be in a world of hurt if these runs are anywhere close to right. 1. See my post above. 2. Agree. The whole coast from HAT to LI would be in for some major erosion/flooding if this verifies. Side note...since all the NYC weenies are going to be without power soon anyway, can we just boot them off the board now so they don't crash it again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z UKIE is west I guess... 96 -- http://raleighwx.ame...tropical096.gif (979mb making landfall in NC SW of OBX) 120 -- http://raleighwx.ame...tropical120.gif (978mb near E LI, but just south of it) One could guess 108 is likely to be near 50-75 miles off OC as it goes by.. so a tad further east of the 12z EURO plot looks quite a bit west to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What does EnKF mean? On a side note: the lower bay is going to be in a world of hurt if these runs are anywhere close to right. sorry...ensemble Kalman filter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 sorry...ensemble Kalman filter is that anything like a Joe Camel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Just updated by Dr. Ostro on TWC http://cdnmo.coveritlive.com/media/image/201108/phpFRjMc2Extreme_debut.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosemont/old town Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Welcome Feel free to ask questions Usually, we get the maps from here -- http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html Thank You! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What does EnKF mean? On a side note: the lower bay is going to be in a world of hurt if these runs are anywhere close to right. I have family right on the water (well a hundred yards back or so from the water) in St. Mary's County. Do you mean that part of the bay as well, or down near the mouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 I have family right on the water (well a hundred yards back or so from the water) in St. Mary's County. Do you mean that part of the bay as well, or down near the mouth? for now i'd think mainly near the mouth.. virginia beach, norfolk, newport news etc. maybe a bit further north but those first areas take prolonged east winds before the center approaches to help pile up water etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Blah blah 84 hr NAM I know... but interesting nevertheless http://mag.ncep.noaa...4_sim_radar.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110824/18/nam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 So the Euro and GFSEnKF have the hurricane at almost exactly the same distance from DC as Floyd was at its closest point-- right around Ocean City. For this area, Floyd dropped 3-10+" of rain (with the most rain right along the bay), and gave the 1-95 corridor and eastward several hours of frequent gusts over 40 mph. DCA did manage to snag an observation of sustained TS-force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 FWIW... appears to make landfall/about to make it near OBX... someone has said Diamond Shoals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 the nam as insignificant as it is in the tropics (tho arguably more useful each run) and at 84 hrs is at least west of previous so there seems to be a general "trend" that way among the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 the nam as insignificant as it is in the tropics (tho arguably more useful each run) and at 84 hrs is at least west of previous so there seems to be a general "trend" that way among the guidance Dirigible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 the nam as insignificant as it is in the tropics (tho arguably more useful each run) and at 84 hrs is at least west of previous so there seems to be a general "trend" that way among the guidance agree... it actually was west of the 12z and makes landfall in NC it looks like... I wish we could see 90-102 just to see for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Per Dendrite in the SNE thread -- "Euro ens came pretty far west too. Looks like the mean rides just offshore up the coast and then somewhere around LI-CT/RI." Anybody know about farther down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Dirigible. Hope it fares better than your bus has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On a serious note, I'd be weary of the Euro suckering us back in. If the 0z runs tonight show a substantial or even a moderate tick west, then we're in bidness and the fish with arms can come with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 agree... it actually was west of the 12z and makes landfall in NC it looks like... I wish we could see 90-102 just to see for fun the euro/gfs are about 30 miles east of there at that latitude so it's probably in the general park tho it's slow comparatively. (used wind b/c cant pull mslp on nam at 84) these wundermodels are going to be addictive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Sure wouldn't take much of a shift west to at least make it interesting for us. Regardless, storm is pretty big so if some outer bands move through it will at least look and feel tropical. NYC just got destroyed with record daily rainfall last week and they are probably in for another big time deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Per Dendrite in the SNE thread -- "Euro ens came pretty far west too. Looks like the mean rides just offshore up the coast and then somewhere around LI-CT/RI." Anybody know about farther down here? ensemnble mean from nc north it's significantly west.. pretty similar to the op maybe a hair east up north.. like landfall could be further north than s nj but close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Cause we wait for the great 18z GFS GGEM ensemble mean has Irene over OBX it looks like (making landfall in NC) 84 http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12084.gif 96 http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12096.gif I would gather 90 would be 50-75 miles E of Norfolk 2-4" east of BR -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemblep72120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Those are 3 hr panels.. in case not obvious by how many. Almost back to the blue ridge and east in a n/s fashion is 4"+ -- maybe 30-50 miles east of blue ridge Wow, the nam also looks like it would be very wet. I'm torn, for fishing it would be better if it was a pure miss, for excitement, the Euro or NAm rock though even farther west would be more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 gfs came west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That is an impressive coastal scrape, if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Woohoooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My mega ark is ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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