Riptide Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I've got wunderground out to 15z Sunday. But it keeps skipping time steps with no seeming pattern. 15z Sunday has the innermost pressure countour touching the DE shoreline on it's west side. Looks like it's ~20mi off the coast when it passes the VA/NC border. Oh my god, that's fooking ridiculous. The coastal beaches and estuaries would be flooded into Oblivion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I can verify the euro...let me get back to you Bring a boat, I need to get out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I've got wunderground out to 15z Sunday. But it keeps skipping time steps with no seeming pattern. 15z Sunday has the innermost pressure countour touching the DE shoreline on it's west side. Looks like it's ~20mi off the coast when it passes the VA/NC border. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 the left shift is a wildcard.. im not sure i believe it but i dont think it's not possible either. I think it is possible as is a more eastward track. We've still 4 days away and what it does still depends on the strength of the ridge in the atlantic and the shortwaves in the northern stream. The models are still trying to resolve all the features. It's sort of like watching a winter storm evolve and worrying about the stripe of heavy snow. In this case, for us it would be no rain to possibly heavy rain depending on the track. Speaking of such, how much rain does the Euro give DCA and BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 At this point, as it passes by NC/VA, about how far in would hurricane-force and tropical storm-force winds be encountered? I ask this from a business perspective, as I have an event occurring in Chesapeake VA (indoors), about 20 miles "as the crow flies" to the Oceanfront, this Saturday night. It looks like at its current speed, the storm will be passing closest to Chesapeake during exactly that time. I'm trying to determine if we should be canceling the whole thing (which would be a nightmare), trying to have it earlier/later, etc. It looks like the paths right now put it ~100 miles from land at the closest mark which puts us 120 miles away. If we're not going to see more than rain and some gusts, we'll not worry about it. If we're looking at people driving in 80 MPH winds, that's a different story. Based on the Euro maps at Wunderground, at 6z Sunday (2am Sunday morning local), winds along the VA coastline would be high TS-force sustained with probably gust to hurricane force. Hurricane force sustained looks to stay offshore. Low-mid level TS winds for Chesapeake according to the Euro at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 hr 90 pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like we would already be raining in DCA area by hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 loop -- slowed down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeromus-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Based on the Euro maps at Wunderground, at 6z Sunday (2am Sunday morning local), winds along the VA coastline would be high TS-force sustained with probably gust to hurricane force. Hurricane force sustained looks to stay offshore. Low-mid level TS winds for Chesapeake according to the Euro at that time. Thanks very much for this. I'm not a meteorologist (obviously) but I can typically follow what you guys are doing here. I'll keep an eye on the Euro and compare it to what you're saying based on the 6z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow this would bring DC-Baltimore close to if not in Tropical Storm conditions for a period. Exciting! This is the best case scenario for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 noob question - the wind measurements on the models... kts or mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow this would bring DC-Baltimore close to if not in Tropical Storm conditions for a period. Exciting! This is the best case scenario for us. or worst case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosemont/old town Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/lmaosmiley.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />Take a peek at the 850mb winds at 96 per the 12z EURO... yup 80 kts First post so please be gentle... I would like to start looking at these maps and with the commentary here feel I may be able to understand them a bit better. Problem for me is simply finding the maps. Would you or anyone be able to share the website that you visit to look at these model runs? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like we would already be raining in DCA area by hr 90 Sooner than that even. Some moisture from Irene gets pulled northward up the weakness in the ridge along the east coast and gives us some scattered light rain showers by Saturday afternoon. Euro has Irene basically riding up the Garden State Parkway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 or worst case scenario Yeah if youre rooting against it (which I'm not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 noob question - the wind measurements on the models... kts or mph? The wunderground maps are showing kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Would the skyscrapers in NYC be able to withstand a cat 1 or 2 hurricane direct hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah if youre rooting against it (which I'm not). You might change your tune when a tree crashes into your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Good screen shot... but I see no ledger for wnd speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 You might change your tune when a tree crashes into your house. That's true I'm definitely not rooting for trees to hit houses but I do like storms a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The wunderground maps are showing kts. thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 thank you you're welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 or worst case scenario Not yet.. Need more west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Would the skyscrapers in NYC be able to withstand a cat 1 or 2 hurricane direct hit? I think aside broken glass yes the structures would be fine, but I have no knowledge on the topic it just seems like they should be able to withstand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not yet.. Need more west! Don't worry - it's coming. south Florida landfall or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ian, Thanks, the maps show my house in at least two periods of over an inch so I'm guessing 3 inches or more based srickly on the euro. That has me interested again. Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I think aside broken glass yes the structures would be fine, but I have no knowledge on the topic it just seems like they should be able to withstand that. I ask because of this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citigroup_Center#Engineering_crisis_of_1978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 crappy servers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 First post so please be gentle... I would like to start looking at these maps and with the commentary here feel I may be able to understand them a bit better. Problem for me is simply finding the maps. Would you or anyone be able to share the website that you visit to look at these model runs? Thanks Welcome Feel free to ask questions Usually, we get the maps from here -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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