Zeromus-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Based on the Euro maps at Wunderground, at 6z Sunday (2am Sunday morning local), winds along the VA coastline would be high TS-force sustained with probably gust to hurricane force. Hurricane force sustained looks to stay offshore. Low-mid level TS winds for Chesapeake according to the Euro at that time. Thanks very much for this. I'm not a meteorologist (obviously) but I can typically follow what you guys are doing here. I'll keep an eye on the Euro and compare it to what you're saying based on the 6z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow this would bring DC-Baltimore close to if not in Tropical Storm conditions for a period. Exciting! This is the best case scenario for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 noob question - the wind measurements on the models... kts or mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow this would bring DC-Baltimore close to if not in Tropical Storm conditions for a period. Exciting! This is the best case scenario for us. or worst case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosemont/old town Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/lmaosmiley.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />Take a peek at the 850mb winds at 96 per the 12z EURO... yup 80 kts First post so please be gentle... I would like to start looking at these maps and with the commentary here feel I may be able to understand them a bit better. Problem for me is simply finding the maps. Would you or anyone be able to share the website that you visit to look at these model runs? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like we would already be raining in DCA area by hr 90 Sooner than that even. Some moisture from Irene gets pulled northward up the weakness in the ridge along the east coast and gives us some scattered light rain showers by Saturday afternoon. Euro has Irene basically riding up the Garden State Parkway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 or worst case scenario Yeah if youre rooting against it (which I'm not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 noob question - the wind measurements on the models... kts or mph? The wunderground maps are showing kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Would the skyscrapers in NYC be able to withstand a cat 1 or 2 hurricane direct hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah if youre rooting against it (which I'm not). You might change your tune when a tree crashes into your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Good screen shot... but I see no ledger for wnd speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 You might change your tune when a tree crashes into your house. That's true I'm definitely not rooting for trees to hit houses but I do like storms a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The wunderground maps are showing kts. thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 thank you you're welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 or worst case scenario Not yet.. Need more west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Would the skyscrapers in NYC be able to withstand a cat 1 or 2 hurricane direct hit? I think aside broken glass yes the structures would be fine, but I have no knowledge on the topic it just seems like they should be able to withstand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not yet.. Need more west! Don't worry - it's coming. south Florida landfall or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ian, Thanks, the maps show my house in at least two periods of over an inch so I'm guessing 3 inches or more based srickly on the euro. That has me interested again. Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I think aside broken glass yes the structures would be fine, but I have no knowledge on the topic it just seems like they should be able to withstand that. I ask because of this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citigroup_Center#Engineering_crisis_of_1978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 crappy servers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 First post so please be gentle... I would like to start looking at these maps and with the commentary here feel I may be able to understand them a bit better. Problem for me is simply finding the maps. Would you or anyone be able to share the website that you visit to look at these model runs? Thanks Welcome Feel free to ask questions Usually, we get the maps from here -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z UKIE is west I guess... 96 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropical096.gif (979mb making landfall in NC SW of OBX) 120 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropical120.gif (978mb near E LI, but just south of it) One could guess 108 is likely to be near 50-75 miles off OC as it goes by.. so a tad further east of the 12z EURO plot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 hr 90 pressure can we let rainstrom back for this one, her poor trailer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ian, Thanks, the maps show my house in at least two periods of over an inch so I'm guessing 3 inches or more based srickly on the euro. That has me interested again. Wes Those are 3 hr panels.. in case not obvious by how many. Almost back to the blue ridge and east in a n/s fashion is 4"+ -- maybe 30-50 miles east of blue ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If you so choose to accept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 As LEK posted in the main forecast thread, the 12z GFS EnKF is essentially identical to the Euro's track. Could the GFS EnKF be the weenie's new best friend come winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 As LEK posted in the main forecast thread, the 12z GFS EnKF is essentially identical to the Euro's track. Could the GFS EnKF be the weenie's new best friend come winter? It needs to come wester. What's the GFS EnKF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 As LEK posted in the main forecast thread, the 12z GFS EnKF is essentially identical to the Euro's track. Could the GFS EnKF be the weenie's new best friend come winter? So we have the EURO/GFS EnKF/GFDL (sorta?) UKMET is up in the air, but I think leans toward us a lil Did we get the NAM/SREFs yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It needs to come wester. What's the GFS EnKF? It's a version of the GFS which uses a hybrid variational/EnKF scheme for initialization...believe it will become operational next year sometime...it has shown a lot of promise in its test run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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