jacindc Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Euro, you know I've always loved you, baby. Ignore all those things I've been saying about you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 allow me to squash your weenie fantasies: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 4"+ DC east 5+ or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 phineas's house may end up blown southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My condolences But if my siblings all die at the same time as my parents, then I get everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 4"+ DC east I will take this run and hold it tight. Until it gets ripped away at 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 heh.. another shift like that and we're in business. greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 phineas's house may end up blown southward Phineas winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 allow me to squash your weenie fantasies: You deserve to be banned. Get that ish out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Is that a 930s L near Delaware Bay at 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 heh.. another shift like that and we're in business. I would be concerned that this was a bit of a hiccup...but it seems like most (if not all) of the 12z global models all at least made some shift back to the west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 How close does the Euro bring it to SEVA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 I would be concerned that this was a bit of a hiccup...but it seems like most (if not all) of the 12z global models all at least made some shift back to the west.... the left shift is a wildcard.. im not sure i believe it but i dont think it's not possible either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 .......................................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 How close does the Euro bring it to SEVA? looks like it's just offshore tho my maps are kinda small.. how long till they hit wunderground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 heh.. another shift like that and we're in business. Speaking as someone who owns property, the TS force winds and 4" of rain is plenty to satisfy my inner wx-weenie. Don't need it to go overhead as a Cat 2. LOL. On top of Manhattan. Giggidy! This run coming to fruition would be major trouble for NYC. JB has been harping on a hurricane hitting NYC each year for how many years now? 5? 10? He's finally going to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Can someone actually verify the 12z Euro? Chances are it can't be that far off 100 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 the left shift is a wildcard.. im not sure i believe it but i dont think it's not possible either. my thoughts exactly.....i always weight the right trend on a track like this...but this revolving door of shortwaves and how they affect the shape/strength of the Atlantic ridge leaves each directional trend on the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeromus-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 At this point, as it passes by NC/VA, about how far in would hurricane-force and tropical storm-force winds be encountered? I ask this from a business perspective, as I have an event occurring in Chesapeake VA (indoors), about 20 miles "as the crow flies" to the Oceanfront, this Saturday night. It looks like at its current speed, the storm will be passing closest to Chesapeake during exactly that time. I'm trying to determine if we should be canceling the whole thing (which would be a nightmare), trying to have it earlier/later, etc. It looks like the paths right now put it ~100 miles from land at the closest mark which puts us 120 miles away. If we're not going to see more than rain and some gusts, we'll not worry about it. If we're looking at people driving in 80 MPH winds, that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 looks like it's just offshore tho my maps are kinda small.. how long till they hit wunderground? I've got wunderground out to 15z Sunday. But it keeps skipping time steps with no seeming pattern. 15z Sunday has the innermost pressure countour touching the DE shoreline on it's west side. Looks like it's ~20mi off the coast when it passes the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Can someone actually verify the 12z Euro? Chances are it can't be that far off 100 hours out. I can verify the euro...let me get back to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Take a peek at the 850mb winds at 96 per the 12z EURO... yup 80 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I've got wunderground out to 15z Sunday. But it keeps skipping time steps with no seeming pattern. 15z Sunday has the innermost pressure countour touching the DE shoreline on it's west side. Looks like it's ~20mi off the coast when it passes the VA/NC border. Oh my god, that's fooking ridiculous. The coastal beaches and estuaries would be flooded into Oblivion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I can verify the euro...let me get back to you Bring a boat, I need to get out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I've got wunderground out to 15z Sunday. But it keeps skipping time steps with no seeming pattern. 15z Sunday has the innermost pressure countour touching the DE shoreline on it's west side. Looks like it's ~20mi off the coast when it passes the VA/NC border. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 the left shift is a wildcard.. im not sure i believe it but i dont think it's not possible either. I think it is possible as is a more eastward track. We've still 4 days away and what it does still depends on the strength of the ridge in the atlantic and the shortwaves in the northern stream. The models are still trying to resolve all the features. It's sort of like watching a winter storm evolve and worrying about the stripe of heavy snow. In this case, for us it would be no rain to possibly heavy rain depending on the track. Speaking of such, how much rain does the Euro give DCA and BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 At this point, as it passes by NC/VA, about how far in would hurricane-force and tropical storm-force winds be encountered? I ask this from a business perspective, as I have an event occurring in Chesapeake VA (indoors), about 20 miles "as the crow flies" to the Oceanfront, this Saturday night. It looks like at its current speed, the storm will be passing closest to Chesapeake during exactly that time. I'm trying to determine if we should be canceling the whole thing (which would be a nightmare), trying to have it earlier/later, etc. It looks like the paths right now put it ~100 miles from land at the closest mark which puts us 120 miles away. If we're not going to see more than rain and some gusts, we'll not worry about it. If we're looking at people driving in 80 MPH winds, that's a different story. Based on the Euro maps at Wunderground, at 6z Sunday (2am Sunday morning local), winds along the VA coastline would be high TS-force sustained with probably gust to hurricane force. Hurricane force sustained looks to stay offshore. Low-mid level TS winds for Chesapeake according to the Euro at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 hr 90 pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like we would already be raining in DCA area by hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 loop -- slowed down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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