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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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I would be concerned that this was a bit of a hiccup...but it seems like most (if not all) of the 12z global models all at least made some shift back to the west....

the left shift is a wildcard.. im not sure i believe it but i dont think it's not possible either.

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heh.. another shift like that and we're in business. :whistle:

Speaking as someone who owns property, the TS force winds and 4" of rain is plenty to satisfy my inner wx-weenie. Don't need it to go overhead as a Cat 2.

LOL. On top of Manhattan. Giggidy!

:axe:

This run coming to fruition would be major trouble for NYC. JB has been harping on a hurricane hitting NYC each year for how many years now? 5? 10? He's finally going to be right :whistle:

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the left shift is a wildcard.. im not sure i believe it but i dont think it's not possible either.

my thoughts exactly.....i always weight the right trend on a track like this...but this revolving door of shortwaves and how they affect the shape/strength of the Atlantic ridge leaves each directional trend on the table...

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At this point, as it passes by NC/VA, about how far in would hurricane-force and tropical storm-force winds be encountered? I ask this from a business perspective, as I have an event occurring in Chesapeake VA (indoors), about 20 miles "as the crow flies" to the Oceanfront, this Saturday night. It looks like at its current speed, the storm will be passing closest to Chesapeake during exactly that time. I'm trying to determine if we should be canceling the whole thing (which would be a nightmare), trying to have it earlier/later, etc.

It looks like the paths right now put it ~100 miles from land at the closest mark which puts us 120 miles away. If we're not going to see more than rain and some gusts, we'll not worry about it. If we're looking at people driving in 80 MPH winds, that's a different story.

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looks like it's just offshore tho my maps are kinda small.. how long till they hit wunderground?

I've got wunderground out to 15z Sunday. But it keeps skipping time steps with no seeming pattern.

15z Sunday has the innermost pressure countour touching the DE shoreline on it's west side. Looks like it's ~20mi off the coast when it passes the VA/NC border.

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