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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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What's he saying now?

I'm still not giving up. The difference between a Hatteras brush/off to sea and seeing some major effects in Hampton Roads is one good Westward wobble on the way. If we don't get some good wind/surge, I hope it at least brings enough rain to put a dent in the Great Dismal Swamp wildfire.

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What's he saying now?

he's a model hugging weenie. the fact that the euro would continue to go east was fairly predictable given where we were and where we were going. there is not much accountability for mets though.

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12z GFS upgrades our Sat night/Sunday forecast from cloudy and windy to windy with sprinkles!!:weight_lift:

The track really insn't all that different from the earlier run. I'm already getting bored with the storm. Unless the track really changes, this is going to be a a bore here, the northeast looks to flood in places.

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The track really insn't all that different from the earlier run. I'm already getting bored with the storm. Unless the track really changes, this is going to be a a bore here, the northeast looks to flood in places.

yes.. bored it is.

meh.

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The track really insn't all that different from the earlier run. I'm already getting bored with the storm. Unless the track really changes, this is going to be a a bore here, the northeast looks to flood in places.

Taken verbatim, you'd get some good rains still. But the NW precip cutoff is murderous. Basically 5-10 miles inland from the western coast of the Bay goes from 0" to 0.5"+. I'm still interested. I don't need any flooding to be happy with Irene, I'm rooting for a few hours of strong winds with mod-heavy rain. That said, the similarities to winter (barely missing and watching SNE cash in) are nauseating.

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Henry M. thinks the models are too far east:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/54200/irene-impacts-from-nc-to-maine.asp

I will say, while I am sticking to the official path here at AccuWeather I so remain concerned that the models eastward shift was perhaps too much. Big storms like this tend to influence the environment around them, not be influenced by the environment. With that said, once Irene takes a northern track, I can see how Irene maintains a northern track without being pushed to the northeast.

Irene is almost to 75w and should get to about 77.5w which is the longitude of Richmond, VA. If my theory is correct and Irene goes north instead of northeast and still may end up going through New Jersey. I would not for a minute let my guard down on Irene until she has is actually moving to the northeast.

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