CheesyPoofs Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 too bad the gfdl is one of the worst models on the planet Yeah, lol. 18z HWRF also further east. I think the writing is on the wall for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 we should all exchange snail mail addresses so we can keep in touch No - I am planning to run tin can phones to everyones homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah, lol 18z HWRF also further east. I think the writing is on the wall for us... I think the writing has been on the wall for us since last night when the dropsonde data was ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 too bad the gfdl is one of the worst models on the planet GFDL is now my model of choice. Even a lowly .175 hitting major leaguer can occasionally pop one out of the park. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Gonna need a bigger ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I think the writing has been on the wall for us since last night when the dropsonde data was ingested. Yeah, probably. I guess it was hard to totally let go since even at 0z last night the Euro remained stubborn, but it was hard to ignore the eastward trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hug the GFDL until we die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hug the GFDL until we die. it's huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hug the GFDL until we die. It could be right. Eastern NC is due to be wiped off the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Also, I like DT, but man -- he has been burned by the Euro a lot since last December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It could be right. Eastern NC is due to be wiped off the map. Don't tease the weenies. There are some who will read your post and think it's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I seem to remember the nhc being quite fond of the gfdl back in the day... Maybe it is time for a comeback! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Agree that portions of the obx are destined to be wiped off the map. Some portions near hatteras are no more than a few hundred yards wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GFDL is the new Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The eye is really showing up now on sat images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Irene is about to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Irene is about to explode. I think we can hit a high end category 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 too bad the gfdl is one of the worst models on the planet As good as the CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Also, I like DT, but man -- he has been burned by the Euro a lot since last December. since the euro became free and the gfs got better dt's forecasting prowess has consistently waned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 As good as the CRAS? looks like the CRAS still has the lead for worst model on the planet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Cantore keeps talking about a bend West somewhere from the mid atlantic north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Cantore keeps talking about a bend West somewhere from the mid atlantic north. Like the GFDL? lol - That would be fun if it happened for us. Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Cantore keeps talking about a bend West somewhere from the mid atlantic north. we just need to happen early and harder. we're actually not much more out of the game than yesterday in many ways. might be our best 24 hours of the last 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 We haven't mentioned much about this here yet, but the Bahamas are going to get annihilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 we just need to happen early and harder. we're actually not much more out of the game than yesterday in many ways. might be our best 24 hours of the last 3 days. I'm down for at least 2 more days of tracking when we are <100 miles from good fun storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 we just need to happen early and harder. we're actually not much more out of the game than yesterday in many ways. might be our best 24 hours of the last 3 days. It seems to be right on the NHC track right now. Based on sat imagery. I guess we will have to watch to see if the N jogs get beat out by the W jogs a bit more than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 since the euro became free and the gfs got better dt's forecasting prowess has consistently waned I still think he is a good met, and I wouldn't mind if he still posted. Back when I was a budding weenie during the WWBB days, I would look up to him as a weather God though, ha. I think it would help if he didn't speak in border-line absolutes -- ie. The GFS solution is 100% full of crap, the Euro is the "best weather model in the word" (something he said this morning), suggesting it should be given heavy weight, etc. I guess that's just his style (though as we have seen it can burn him and others who have a similar way of forecasting).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 So right now its GFDL, Cantore, NHC vs. all the other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 So right now its GFDL, Cantore, NHC vs. all the other models? I think the 12z EURO was a go for us... but yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 FWIW - based on what I'm seeing from recon it looks like the newest center fix is going to be almost due west of the previous. could just be a wobble - in fact it likely is just a wobble but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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