yoda Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...tropical264.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical276.gif This good Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...tropical264.gif http://raleighwx.ame...tropical276.gif This good Ian? extended tornado watch good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 extended tornado watch good. Well that's a pretty map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Well that's a pretty map. it's even a bit negative tilt as it passes. but the center of ivan passed almost right over the area i think.. not sure. hurricanes don't necessarily follow the placement rules you'd see with a regular storm threat around here. either way if that map verified we'd get a watch im sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 it's even a bit negative tilt as it passes. but the center of ivan passed almost right over the area i think.. not sure. hurricanes don't necessarily follow the placement rules you'd see with a regular storm threat around here. either way if that map verified we'd get a watch im sure... Still I think it would be fun to have a E coast threat instead of a Gulf threat but the models seem to be getting a bit more certain about the C or E gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Still I think it would be fun to have a E coast threat instead of a Gulf threat but the models seem to be getting a bit more certain about the C or E gulf. yeah.. tho as far as getting remnants go this might be a better way to go if it's really c/e gulf. something tells me there will be at least another after to follow to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 yeah.. tho as far as getting remnants go this might be a better way to go if it's really c/e gulf. something tells me there will be at least another after to follow to. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 00z GFS misses us to the east... but looks a bit interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 00z GFS misses us to the east... but looks a bit interesting yeah just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The QPF map looks like December 26th, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 The QPF map looks like December 26th, 2010. or last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The QPF map looks like December 26th, 2010. But where's the 0C line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 LWX mentions 97L in this mornings discussion... More or less says wait and see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 ...just give me something to chase already....DAMN IT. With the models...I tend to favor when there is a western trend. Just seems for the past three years or more, that storm tracks tend to go west of the forecasted track 3/4s of the time. This might be a tricky one to decide on a chase since the various factors (mountains, tracks, SSTs) vary a bit and may not justify a chase. I guess I'd consider it more if I could find a chase partner with a pretty relaxed schedule to share chase costs with (gas, lodging, etc.). I'm a little gun shy after chasing this spring in the west...and it ended up being the wrong time to go (flexibility was non-existent though). I've got enough for two chases...three if we see more E.Coast options...but I really don't want to spend the money...since it's coming from my reserves more than from income. At least the convection back into central Africa is looking a little better for more of a parade of storms....although I need to find more met. data to get a better picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 12z GFS goes just west of us I believe in the 990s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 yeah pretty good track. timing is off but at this range who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 i can already picture me and zwyts heading to alexandria like with fay to see 10 mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The chance of getting home damage is minimal enough to not think about it IMO. Yeah. As a home owner, I don't worry much about home damage. It's a fairly small risk. That said, as a Montgomery Country resident, I worry a lot about power outages, especially in very cold weather. With very young children at home, that can quickly become a dangerous situation. That said, it doesn't make me root against weather, but it definitely dampens my enthusiasm. i can already picture me and zwyts heading to alexandria like with fay to see 10 mph winds Sounds more successful than Josh's Dan chase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 Yeah. As a home owner, I don't worry much about home damage. It's a fairly small risk. That said, as a Montgomery Country resident, I worry a lot about power outages, especially in very cold weather. With very young children at home, that can quickly become a dangerous situation. That said, it doesn't make me root against weather, but it definitely dampens my enthusiasm. I've not lost power here for more than a few minutes .. actually at any place I've lived in DC, so not a huge concern for me. I can understand that though. Still in the grand scheme the chances are somewhat low. I'll take any extreme though.. if it's something beyond my complexes control re power etc so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 I'd want to this thing to the west on modeling up here. While I think the models may end up at least a smidge too right in the tropics (see if it keeps it from the islands etc), they may be too left up here. If anything I'd expect them to try to target the eastern edges of what we've seen if not even show an offshore track etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Meh. Next week I'll start paying attention. And posting here more! Ian should be thrilled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 looks windy http://img228.images...ustmsfc216t.gif Although less impressive than 0z http://img163.images...gustmsfc228.gif 12z GGEM is further east and slightly faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I've not lost power here for more than a few minutes .. actually at any place I've lived in DC, so not a huge concern for me. I can understand that though. Still in the grand scheme the chances are somewhat low. I'll take any extreme though.. if it's something beyond my complexes control re power etc so be it. From Feb '10 to Feb '11, our power was out for an aggregate total of 13.5 days, 6 of which were in freezing cold, and 4 of which were in stifling heat. Before having a kid, I would have viewed that as a minor annoyance that was more than outweighed by enjoying a storm. Now, not so much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Meh. Next week I'll start paying attention. And posting here more! Ian should be thrilled! Hmm. I forget. When Randy starts posting on the weatherside and sees his shadow does that mean there's 6 more weeks until winter starts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 12z Euro looks interesting now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 12z Euro looks interesting now too Great detail and insight right there o' green one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 LWX PM discussion WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...GFS AND ECMWF BOTHTRACK A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES TOWARD FL AND UP THE ERN CONUS BY NEXT WEEKEND. STILL TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CERTAINTY OF TRACK 7-8 DAYS OUT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS IN GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Tornado threat? Heavy rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Ian, please PLEASE tell me that wasn't you that just posted the 126hr GFDL on the Capital Weather Gang's FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Ian, please PLEASE tell me that wasn't you that just posted the 126hr GFDL on the Capital Weather Gang's FB page. Heh.. Naa. I try to shut weenies up, not get them excited. Tho I do like a Gulf scenario in some fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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