Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I would be more than happy with a 30-80 mile west shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 They only go out to 126... but the 12z HWRF/GFDL runs looked Euroish.. think the HWRF was a bit (like 25-50 miles) west of EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 5pm NHC track is okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 5pm NHC track is okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 5pm NHC track is okay unless it goes east any more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 unless it goes east any more... Yeah... for us that's about as far east as we want it to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The ark survived the quake... For anyone who was concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Has weakened to a cat 1 90 mph storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So, why does Channel 5 keep saying that all we will get is some rain from Irene? last time I checked, the TS force wind field from even a mature Cat 1 spans pretty far. I recall Isabel. Tree landed on my house from that one. Was that even a direct hit? Or wasn't that off the coast? I'm almost certain there will be widespread power outages at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So, why does Channel 5 keep saying that all we will get is some rain from Irene? last time I checked, the TS force wind field from even a mature Cat 1 spans pretty far. I recall Isabel. Tree landed on my house from that one. Was that even a direct hit? Or wasn't that off the coast? I'm almost certain there will be widespread power outages at least. Isabel went west. This is skirting the coast. THe part about widespread power outages is a lot of hype. At most you might get a gust in the 40mph range and even that might be a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Has weakened to a cat 1 90 mph storm. looks like we can count on it dissipating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Isabel went west. This is skirting the coast. THe part about widespread power outages is a lot of hype. At most you might get a gust in the 40mph range and even that might be a bit high. Depends on the track. Too early to say what will and will not happen. It may skirt the coast, it may make landfall and track inland for a ways, it may stay ots. Obviously TS force winds are rare in DC, but if this storm followed a track a little left of the consensus (still well within cone) it would be possible. Best forecast would be for a good chance of wind and rain yet to be determined how much of each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So, why does Channel 5 keep saying that all we will get is some rain from Irene? last time I checked, the TS force wind field from even a mature Cat 1 spans pretty far. I recall Isabel. Tree landed on my house from that one. Was that even a direct hit? Or wasn't that off the coast? I'm almost certain there will be widespread power outages at least. Isabel passed to our west. Track went basically from OBX to RIC to Garrett County MD. It was a pretty broad storm. Chesapeake Bay got hit pretty hard with E and SE winds. Pushed a lot of water against the western shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Depends on the track. Too early to say what will and will not happen. It may skirt the coast, it may make landfall and track inland for a ways, it may stay ots. Obviously TS force winds are rare in DC, but if this storm followed a track a little left of the consensus (still well within cone) it would be possible. Best forecast would be for a good chance of wind and rain yet to be determined how much of each. Maybe TS gusts not sustained. Winds die down rather quickly as it makes landfall and also due to more friction over land. Also, we are on the left side of the storm - again, Isabel went west. No matter how you cut this this probably isn't going west of us. There is a big reason the rains were the big story with Floyd (somewhat similar track) and not the wind. Rain should be the big story - and even then we might get fringed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Maybe TS gusts not sustained. Winds die down rather quickly as it makes landfall and also due to more friction over land. Also, we are on the left side of the storm - again, Isabel went west. No matter how you cut this this probably isn't going west of us. There is a big reason the rains were the big story with Floyd (somewhat similar track) and not the wind. Rain should be the big story - and even then we might get fringed lol Yeah you are probably right. At this point I'd be super happy with a full drenching and some 20-25 mph winds with gusts. Just a nice stormy day. Make me think of fall and nor easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah you are probably right. At this point I'd be super happy with a full drenching and some 20-25 mph winds with gusts. Just a nice stormy day. Make me think of fall and nor easters. Agree - as I said above, I'd be pretty happy with a 50 mile shift west. Not sure we get it though. We need Irene to move a bit west of track meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Agree - as I said above, I'd be pretty happy with a 50 mile shift west. Not sure we get it though. We need Irene to move a bit west of track meh. We would need Irene to speed up in order move more west of current guidance right? Irene is looking ripe for some intensification over the next 12-24 hours. Maybe it deepens rapidly and wobbles left a bit. Probably grasping at straws though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We would need Irene to speed up in order move more west of current guidance right? Irene is looking ripe for some intensification over the next 12-24 hours. Maybe it deepens rapidly and wobbles left a bit. Probably grasping at straws though.... I think stronger would bring it more east. I'm not sure on your speed thought - that sounds potentially right too me - we could use a stronger ridge I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Depends on the track. Too early to say what will and will not happen. It may skirt the coast, it may make landfall and track inland for a ways, it may stay ots. Obviously TS force winds are rare in DC, but if this storm followed a track a little left of the consensus (still well within cone) it would be possible. Best forecast would be for a good chance of wind and rain yet to be determined how much of each. Floyd did bring TS gusts across most of the region in a track hugging the east coast of MD. Remember the hype during that hurricane? It was supposed to be a FL east coast scrape up to Savannah (familiar, right?), then the bullseye became Charleston as a Cat 4 landfall in a day-1 forecast. Each subsequent track update went further east and weaker. DC was gearing up 1 day ahead of time for a strong-end TS to pass right over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yea, I re-thought the stronger thing. It would make the turn sharper and end up east. If the storm speeds up a bit then it would move further west and the recurve wouldn't be as sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Floyd did bring TS gusts across most of the region in a track hugging the east coast of MD. Remember the hype during that hurricane? It was supposed to be a FL east coast scrape up to Savannah (familiar, right?), then the bullseye became Charleston as a Cat 4 landfall in a day-1 forecast. Each subsequent track update went further east and weaker. DC was gearing up 1 day ahead of time for a strong-end TS to pass right over the region. One distinct thing I will remember is that I did not lose power in Floyd at all - just some flickers but Isabel I was out for close to a week. Floyd will always be known for rain in our parts. That was insane rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Floyd was awesome, at my parents house in Westchester NY we had a foot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 18z GFS held more or less.. would like it at 00z to come a tad west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 18z GFS held more or less.. would like it at 00z to come a tad west NO trend for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I feel physically ill looking at this: MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's interesting seeing how from Sunday until now, each day a different crew is desperately hoping for a 5-day track to hold on... even as the forecast track gets nudged east each cycle. 5 days : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's interesting seeing how from Sunday until now, each day a different crew is desperately hoping for a 5-day track to hold on... even as the forecast track gets nudged east each cycle. 5 days : ) And NOAA threw out the 1944 bone. I'm sort of happy to be less and less emotionally involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 And NOAA threw out the 1944 bone. I'm sort of happy to be less and less emotionally involved. Can we officially say bye to this save for some showers and a breeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 And NOAA threw out the 1944 bone. I'm sort of happy to be less and less emotionally involved. I hear you. The really frustrating part, though, is that after Irene makes its most western excursion, it really moves mostly north. There does not appear to be a sharp recurve like so often happens. Soooooo if Irene can get just alittle further west, DC area would not be shut out. Just 50-75 miles would make a huge difference. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm not saying that we are going to get a storm... but totally giving up on this 5 days out and 100 miles or so from a good hit is irrational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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