yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 18z SUN 960 mb mouth of Chesapeake re Irene per Cheeznado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So, whats does the Euro have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So, whats does the Euro have? It appears that Ian thinks the earthquake relieves him of his Euro play-by-play duties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So, whats does the Euro have? See my post above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro gives us all lots more rain and higher winds than GFS. Don't have every time step on Wunderground, but at 18z Sunday, Irene is over Georgetown, DE. Giving the I-95 corridor ~30mph sustained winds. Heavy rain arrives after 6z Sunday. Probably 3"+ for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 the euro went east.. as it continues to do. let's not pay too much attention to details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The consensus between the models is improving, however. The difference in storm center location when it reaches our neighborhood is pretty small (~50-75mi) between the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --DAY 5-6 FCST HINGES UPON TRACK OF IRENE. THE NHC FCST AS OF 19Z TAKES THE CYCLONE ALONG CSTL NC TO THE MOUTH OF THE CHSPK BAY BY 12Z SUN. AFTER THAT...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY BE UNDERWAY. MEANWHILE...A CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SEWD...PROVIDING A ZONE OF LIFT ACRS CWFA. ITS TOO SOON TO DIVE INTO DETAILS BYD THAT...SINCE TRACK/SPD FCSTS STILL HV ROOM TO CHG...SPCLY IN TERMS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BUT...THIS SCENARIO WL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN W/IN CWFA. POPS HV BEEN BUMPED UP TO CAT FOR THAT REASON. FOR THAT MATTER...CANT RULE OUT ANY OF THE ELEMENT HAZARDS...REGARDLESS OF SPECIFIC CATEGORIZATION. THEREFORE...PLS REFER TO NHC ADVYS FOR THE LTST INFORMATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I would be more than happy with a 30-80 mile west shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 They only go out to 126... but the 12z HWRF/GFDL runs looked Euroish.. think the HWRF was a bit (like 25-50 miles) west of EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 5pm NHC track is okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 5pm NHC track is okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 5pm NHC track is okay unless it goes east any more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 unless it goes east any more... Yeah... for us that's about as far east as we want it to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The ark survived the quake... For anyone who was concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Has weakened to a cat 1 90 mph storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So, why does Channel 5 keep saying that all we will get is some rain from Irene? last time I checked, the TS force wind field from even a mature Cat 1 spans pretty far. I recall Isabel. Tree landed on my house from that one. Was that even a direct hit? Or wasn't that off the coast? I'm almost certain there will be widespread power outages at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So, why does Channel 5 keep saying that all we will get is some rain from Irene? last time I checked, the TS force wind field from even a mature Cat 1 spans pretty far. I recall Isabel. Tree landed on my house from that one. Was that even a direct hit? Or wasn't that off the coast? I'm almost certain there will be widespread power outages at least. Isabel went west. This is skirting the coast. THe part about widespread power outages is a lot of hype. At most you might get a gust in the 40mph range and even that might be a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Has weakened to a cat 1 90 mph storm. looks like we can count on it dissipating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Isabel went west. This is skirting the coast. THe part about widespread power outages is a lot of hype. At most you might get a gust in the 40mph range and even that might be a bit high. Depends on the track. Too early to say what will and will not happen. It may skirt the coast, it may make landfall and track inland for a ways, it may stay ots. Obviously TS force winds are rare in DC, but if this storm followed a track a little left of the consensus (still well within cone) it would be possible. Best forecast would be for a good chance of wind and rain yet to be determined how much of each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So, why does Channel 5 keep saying that all we will get is some rain from Irene? last time I checked, the TS force wind field from even a mature Cat 1 spans pretty far. I recall Isabel. Tree landed on my house from that one. Was that even a direct hit? Or wasn't that off the coast? I'm almost certain there will be widespread power outages at least. Isabel passed to our west. Track went basically from OBX to RIC to Garrett County MD. It was a pretty broad storm. Chesapeake Bay got hit pretty hard with E and SE winds. Pushed a lot of water against the western shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Depends on the track. Too early to say what will and will not happen. It may skirt the coast, it may make landfall and track inland for a ways, it may stay ots. Obviously TS force winds are rare in DC, but if this storm followed a track a little left of the consensus (still well within cone) it would be possible. Best forecast would be for a good chance of wind and rain yet to be determined how much of each. Maybe TS gusts not sustained. Winds die down rather quickly as it makes landfall and also due to more friction over land. Also, we are on the left side of the storm - again, Isabel went west. No matter how you cut this this probably isn't going west of us. There is a big reason the rains were the big story with Floyd (somewhat similar track) and not the wind. Rain should be the big story - and even then we might get fringed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Maybe TS gusts not sustained. Winds die down rather quickly as it makes landfall and also due to more friction over land. Also, we are on the left side of the storm - again, Isabel went west. No matter how you cut this this probably isn't going west of us. There is a big reason the rains were the big story with Floyd (somewhat similar track) and not the wind. Rain should be the big story - and even then we might get fringed lol Yeah you are probably right. At this point I'd be super happy with a full drenching and some 20-25 mph winds with gusts. Just a nice stormy day. Make me think of fall and nor easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yeah you are probably right. At this point I'd be super happy with a full drenching and some 20-25 mph winds with gusts. Just a nice stormy day. Make me think of fall and nor easters. Agree - as I said above, I'd be pretty happy with a 50 mile shift west. Not sure we get it though. We need Irene to move a bit west of track meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Agree - as I said above, I'd be pretty happy with a 50 mile shift west. Not sure we get it though. We need Irene to move a bit west of track meh. We would need Irene to speed up in order move more west of current guidance right? Irene is looking ripe for some intensification over the next 12-24 hours. Maybe it deepens rapidly and wobbles left a bit. Probably grasping at straws though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We would need Irene to speed up in order move more west of current guidance right? Irene is looking ripe for some intensification over the next 12-24 hours. Maybe it deepens rapidly and wobbles left a bit. Probably grasping at straws though.... I think stronger would bring it more east. I'm not sure on your speed thought - that sounds potentially right too me - we could use a stronger ridge I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Depends on the track. Too early to say what will and will not happen. It may skirt the coast, it may make landfall and track inland for a ways, it may stay ots. Obviously TS force winds are rare in DC, but if this storm followed a track a little left of the consensus (still well within cone) it would be possible. Best forecast would be for a good chance of wind and rain yet to be determined how much of each. Floyd did bring TS gusts across most of the region in a track hugging the east coast of MD. Remember the hype during that hurricane? It was supposed to be a FL east coast scrape up to Savannah (familiar, right?), then the bullseye became Charleston as a Cat 4 landfall in a day-1 forecast. Each subsequent track update went further east and weaker. DC was gearing up 1 day ahead of time for a strong-end TS to pass right over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yea, I re-thought the stronger thing. It would make the turn sharper and end up east. If the storm speeds up a bit then it would move further west and the recurve wouldn't be as sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Floyd did bring TS gusts across most of the region in a track hugging the east coast of MD. Remember the hype during that hurricane? It was supposed to be a FL east coast scrape up to Savannah (familiar, right?), then the bullseye became Charleston as a Cat 4 landfall in a day-1 forecast. Each subsequent track update went further east and weaker. DC was gearing up 1 day ahead of time for a strong-end TS to pass right over the region. One distinct thing I will remember is that I did not lose power in Floyd at all - just some flickers but Isabel I was out for close to a week. Floyd will always be known for rain in our parts. That was insane rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Floyd was awesome, at my parents house in Westchester NY we had a foot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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